MotoGP: 2015 Round 13 - Gran Premio TIM di San Marino (SPOILERS)

JPSLotus said:

Nomad, I don't even like Rossi lol.

I did state that there is no one more astute in grand prix racing than him.

The rain on his visor bit I saw as well, but it's a convenient excuse. Do you really expect him to come out and talk about how he wrecked J-Lo's race? That would bring down a guaranteed media .... storm that I don't think he feels like dealing with, and could inadvertently spur J-Lo on or cause bigger issues inside the team.

Christ, it's not like this is a guy without a history of ....... with other riders and then claiming something else because it's more convenient.

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How the .... could he possibly know what Lorenzo was going to do? Rossi made a mistake, Lorenzo a much bigger one.

ratdeal said:

I'm sure you've heard the old saying Kesh, that the only tyre you should be on at any given time is the one appropriate for the track conditions. The line was dry. Think Prost vs Senna at Donnington.

A pit board saying to change bikes is gospel regardless of the spittle hitting your visor. After all the team's highly paid meteorologist is on the pitwall, not the bike.

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Another thing, the wet weather masters also are truly better than everyone else at determining what they need for tires when conditions start changing. Senna was an absolute master of this. In 21 wet weather starts, he only had two DNF's that were his fault.

And Donington for those who have never seen it. It's the single greatest lap I have ever seen under race conditions. He starts 5th on the grid.

ratdeal said:

There's no way this wasn't a calculation on VR's part. I believe he would have stayed out for as long as is optimal as per the usual strategy for a wet/dry change. However when JL doggedly chased him in the hope of matching his strategy, it was likely JL would either crash pushing too hard to keep up in the wet, or lose points due to a late switch. I also believe that this was all strategized on the fly. Marc was astute enough to pit in a timely fashion and it seems that lap after lap with JL chasing VR, he obviously saw a myriad of different outcomes with a successful one for JL becoming a slimmer proposition as the laps passed. JL compromised his own race believing that Rossi was trying to win. In my opinion VR sensed this and deliberated ...... his own race to limit Jorge's chances. There is absolutely no way that VR would have stayed out that long due to his own lack of foresight. He is too experienced for that.

Whether or not VR compromised his own podium chances is irrevelant. He saw an opportunity to roll the dice in conditions that had wildly varying and unpredictable outcomes and managed to control the most important variable to the championship, Jorge.

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Nomad, I have highlighted parts of my earlier post as reference.

I am not claiming he is a "wizard", that he looked into his crystal ball and foresaw Jorge's downfall.

What I am saying is that with Rossi having closed the gap with the speed he did, for JL to try and stay with him was higher risk for JL than VR. Secondly, my opinion is that VR was racing reactively. When VR stayed out, JL followed. The conditions were drying out considerably and Marquez had pit for tyres optimal for the conditions, along with most of the field. VR must have known that the longer they stay out one of two things were likely to happen. 1. It continues to dry out but their races are now both ....... 2. It starts to rain again and he already knows he has the pace to break JL.

I don't see how this seems so implausible.

I can appreciate that I may be completely wrong, but by the same token I believe that the chain of events I have described are just as plausible as any of your own opinions on the subject. I don't live inside the head of the riders, I can only comment on what I observe. This is what I saw today.

nomad said:

How the .... could he possibly know what Lorenzo was going to do? Rossi made a mistake, Lorenzo a much bigger one.

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Do you think that everything you see on camera is somehow indicative of what true reality is nomad?

Would you at the very minimum agree that these guys will put on public faces and positive spins on things that as soon as the cameras go off, and they are back behind closed doors, the true situation comes out.

Rossi is the kind of guy who knows where exactly his relationship with Lorenzo is, and what Lorenzo is thinking/feeling for real...and he is just the sort of guy to take advantage of it. He may very well know that Lorenzo has tunnel vision and could be demanding everything be equal because he has some suspicion Rossi is getting preferential treatment with setup and strategy. Rossi saw a chance to play on that to see what would happen.

JPSLotus said:

Do you think that everything you see on camera is somehow indicative of what true reality is nomad?

Would you at the very minimum agree that these guys will put on public faces and positive spins on things that as soon as the cameras go off, and they are back behind closed doors, the true situation comes out.

Rossi is the kind of guy who knows where exactly his relationship with Lorenzo is, and what Lorenzo is thinking/feeling for real...and he is just the sort of guy to take advantage of it. He may very well know that Lorenzo has tunnel vision and could be demanding everything be equal because he has some suspicion Rossi is getting preferential treatment with setup and strategy. Rossi saw a chance to play on that to see what would happen.

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So now he's using Lorenzos perceived paranoia of not possibly being given equal treatment, against him in his race? Where the hell did you get that from?

Keshav said:

Yes another one of many things I that now feel the need to confess. Not only did I kill Manatee, but I'm responsible for the explosion at Fukishima, slashed Simoncelli's helmet strap right before his last race, I ran off Dave Emmet, and a multitude of my favorite PS members, I was responsible for Benghazi, I was DB Cooper, Jack The Ripper was my great grandad, I destroyed Rog's domestic bliss, I buried Jimmy Hoffa in my backyard, Amelia Earhart is lying in the bottom of my swimming pool, I kidnapped all those girls that Boko Haram are wrongfully blamed for and I was the guy on The Grassy Knoll. I also issued the super secret order to create special tires for Rossi. The list goes on. I can't tell you how exhausting it is being an evil mastermind. I work long days I tell you; long days.

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Its nice to see you are back from your hiatus so soon. Rehab isn't for everyone buddy. You still have some serious soul searching to do. As if there is any hope you, you delusional .....

nomad said:

So now he's using Lorenzos perceived paranoia of not possibly being given equal treatment, against him in his race? Where the hell did you get that from?

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“We have a relationship like Senna and Prost, but I hope it doesn't end like in that final corner at Suzuka!” - Jorge Lorenzo

That should tell you everything nomad.

Never underestimate what Rossi will do to competitors if he knows they have a fixation on him, which Lorenzo does.

As such, he will always be looking for a way to put one over on Lorenzo.

It's very hard, virtually impossible to dislike Valentino - even after the Ducati sham and the underhand way in which he was parachuted back onto the Yamaha.

It's very hard, virtually impossible to like his glory hunting fanbase. So many of these aren't fans of the sport of motorcycle racing. Yet again - further evidence of this, cheering Jorge's accident, which was ....... ugly and booing Marquez's victory. I shall be sad to see Vale retire but I'll be ....... glad when he takes his idiotic fanbase with him. The collective noun for a group of Valentino Rossi fans? Bunch of c**ts.

Go Scotty, Go Brad.

Arrabbiata1 said:

It's very hard, virtually impossible to dislike Valentino - even after the Ducati sham and the underhand way in which he was parachuted back onto the Yamaha.

It's very hard, virtually impossible to like his glory hunting fanbase. So many of these aren't fans of the sport of motorcycle racing. Yet again - further evidence of this, cheering Jorge's accident, which was ....... ugly and booing Marquez's victory. I shall be sad to see Vale retire but I'll be ....... glad when he takes his idiotic fanbase with him. The collective noun for a group of Valentino Rossi fans? Bunch of c**ts.

Go Scotty, Go Brad.

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Rossi's fans remind me a lot of Nigel Mansell's fans with the way they act.

Insufferable all the way through.

JPSLotus said:

Nomad, I don't even like Rossi lol.

I did state that there is no one more astute in grand prix racing than him.

The rain on his visor bit I saw as well, but it's a convenient excuse. Do you really expect him to come out and talk about how he wrecked J-Lo's race? That would bring down a guaranteed media .... storm that I don't think he feels like dealing with, and could inadvertently spur J-Lo on or cause bigger issues inside the team.

Christ, it's not like this is a guy without a history of ....... with other riders and then claiming something else because it's more convenient.

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So tell us, how did Rossi make Lorenzo crash? Because unless he was prophetically sure Jorge was going to crash, his "astute strategy" would have simply caused him to arrive behind both MM and JLo, -- astute indeed.

Rossi's mistake was redeemed by Lorenzo's bigger mistake -- thats all there is to it.

Keshav said:

Yes another one of many things I that now feel the need to confess. Not only did I kill Manatee, but I'm responsible for the explosion at Fukishima, slashed Simoncelli's helmet strap right before his last race, I ran off Dave Emmet, and a multitude of my favorite PS members, I was responsible for Benghazi, I was DB Cooper, Jack The Ripper was my great grandad, I destroyed Rog's domestic bliss, I buried Jimmy Hoffa in my backyard, Amelia Earhart is lying in the bottom of my swimming pool, I kidnapped all those girls that Boko Haram are wrongfully blamed for and I was the guy on The Grassy Knoll. I also issued the super secret order to create special tires for Rossi. The list goes on. I can't tell you how exhausting it is being an evil mastermind. I work long days I tell you; long days.

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Bow Wow woof woof Bow Wow Bow Wow Bow Wow.

"The lady doth protest too much, methinks"

1599/ 1600 Hamlet by William Shakespeare

Bow Wow woof woof Bow Wow Bow Wow Bow Wow

MdubSTYLIE said:

Its nice to see you are back from your hiatus so soon. Rehab isn't for everyone buddy. You still have some serious soul searching to do. As if there is any hope you, you delusional .....

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He did do the soul searching. It just that it didn't take very long on account he has no soul.

Regarding the race, I thought Marquez was going to take his cues from Moto2 race. I was surprised.

J4rn0 said:

So tell us, how did Rossi make Lorenzo crash? Because unless he was prophetically sure Jorge was going to crash, his "astute strategy" would have simply caused him to arrive behind both MM and JLo, -- astute indeed.

Rossi's mistake was redeemed by Lorenzo's bigger mistake -- thats all there is to it.

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In my opinion, Jorge made a quite uncharacteristic unforced error resulting in his retirement from the race. This error was the culmination of a number of strategic errors committed by Lorenzo.

Valentino it could (and should) be argued made identical errors (staying out too long on a dry line etc), however it can also be argued that Valentino was trying to call Lorenzo's bluff. The 'Pit In' board was the key moment that changed the race as it then gave Valentino information that he could use in order to push an incredibly high risk strategy that Jorge played into.

ratdeal said:

In my opinion, Jorge made a quite uncharacteristic unforced error resulting in his retirement from the race. This error was the culmination of a number of strategic errors committed by Lorenzo.

Valentino it could (and should) be argued made identical errors (staying out too long on a dry line etc), however it can also be argued that Valentino was trying to call Lorenzo's bluff. The 'Pit In' board was the key moment that changed the race as it then gave Valentino information that he could use in order to push an incredibly high risk strategy that Jorge played into.

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Sorry, but this would make sense only if Valentino was sure of a Lorenzo DNF as a consequence. Now, he couldn't know that, -- right? Nobody could know that a rider like Lorenzo was going to make such a mistake. Even less count on it.

J4rn0 said:

Sorry, but this would make sense only if Valentino was sure of a Lorenzo DNF as a consequence. Now, he couldn't know that, -- right? Nobody could know that a rider like Lorenzo was going to make such a mistake. Even less count on it.

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Lets assume that Valentino believed that dry set-up, Lorenzo was quicker. So if that is the case and Valentino pits, Lorenzo may then pass and he gets beaten. Rossi sees J-lo's board instructing him to come in and does not. J-lo is taking a big risk and probably believes it better to follow VR's lead, This plays into VR's hands.

It plays into his hands by telling him that actually, better to stay out and hedge my bets on the rain continuing. Jorge seems intent on following at a pace that will be difficult to maintain. If it continues to rain Jorge will be on the slick if he pits incorrectly so he will follow. There are now 3 possible outcomes from VR's perspective;

1. J-lo crashes trying to keep VR in sight.
2. J-lo pits but too late and compromises his race and I will pit in response.
3. It rains and VR holds position, Jorge finishes 2nd, or worse if he pits and it rains.

It seems to be a very high risk strategy, but then the conditions were so changeable that any decision made would be a gamble anyway. VR was quicker in wet conditions so he bet on it getting wetter but it did not. However VR knows that J-lo cannot afford for Rossi to be right and for himself to be wrong, and this is what won the race for VR. An excellent piece of racing strategy and psychology.

The cheering of Lorenzo's crash was disgusting, made even worse by the fact that the circuit is named after a young motorcycle racer killed in a racing crash.

MdubSTYLIE said:

Its nice to see you are back from your hiatus so soon. Rehab isn't for everyone buddy. You still have some serious soul searching to do. As if there is any hope you, you delusional .....

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What's that you say boy? Oh.... so sorry. I don't speak mad dog.

Jumkie said:

Bow Wow woof woof Bow Wow Bow Wow Bow Wow.



Bow Wow woof woof Bow Wow Bow Wow Bow Wow

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That's a good boy. Just stick with what you know.

J4rn0 said:

So tell us, how did Rossi make Lorenzo crash? Because unless he was prophetically sure Jorge was going to crash, his "astute strategy" would have simply caused him to arrive behind both MM and JLo, -- astute indeed.

Rossi's mistake was redeemed by Lorenzo's bigger mistake -- thats all there is to it.

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What he really wants to say is that while Honda has been perfecting the seamless transmission. Rossi's crew has secretly developed a brainwave transmission device that allows to Rossi to project Jedi Mind power on Lorenzo. He would say so - but he's sure the those men standing outside his house are Dorna's secret hit squad who will snuff his life out if he tells what he knows. Remember... just because you can't see it on camera doesn't mean it isn't there.

Rossi didn't make it rain nor make Lorenzo crash. For me the issue has always been that VRs few rivals (by design) not only have to compete on the track but also mitigate whatever effects from rules changes or tire "development" materialize during the season. Only 3 men were ever going to win the championship this year, is that a "conspiracy"? The only people who employ this retort are resorting to a lazy response (apart from those incapable of defending their position). There were 4 contending machines, but we know Pedro made the odds 1:3. We virtually know this. And so VR by design had a 1:3 chance. While everyone has been preoccupied blaming the RCV for Marquez's meltdown little to no attention has been highlighted on this year's tires until recently. The tire development had the effect of the pendulum swing from the Marc/RCV domination to a Jlo/VR--M1 domination. The only "conspiracy" part of this statement is my assertion that it was by design. The non conspiracy part of that statement is the reality that it has indeed had this undeniable effect on the three contenders. The swing becomes more discernible and pronounced if you look back at VR's poor race win record the last two years. Did the tires have an effect? Yes. Fact. So is this all "conspiracy"? No.

Gamblers take bets on worse odds. This was a sure bet for Dorna, 1:3 is practically a toss up. And when you factor in unforseen factors, like we've had the last two rounds, it makes the bet a non risk no brainer. I'd even say, Dorna were happy just to have VR on the podiums, which when u have a 4 bike championship is virtually guaranteed. What part of this last statement is "conspiracy"? Answer: my assertion that that it was by design, ie Dorna brokered. Lets examine then the "conspiracy" part of the above.

Here is the challenge #1: Can someone dispute the odds for a title win this year was not virtually a 1:3 odds for Marquez, Lorenzo, and Rossi? Are these odds a type of "conspiracy"? Explain.

Challenge #2: Can someone tell me the odds of VR winning a title when he was at Ducati? How did those odds change when he was signed back with Yamaha? Are these odds a type of "conspiracy"? Explain.

Challenge#3: Have the tires this year had an adverse effect on the RCVs while seemingly favorable to M1s? Is this reality a conspiracy? Explain.

Challenge #4: Kropo is on record here saying Dorna were involved in subsidizing Valentino's return to Yamaha. Fact. Is this a "conspiracy"? Explain.



My answers:

#1: Not conspiracy, its simply a statement of odds. The same type of statistics a legit odds make would produce. Simple math.

#2: Not conspiracy, even the odds makers (and a casual observer of GP) could calculate the odds for VR on a Ducati were unrealistic long shots, while at Yamaha those odds became virtually 1:3. Simple math.

#3: Not conspiracy. Though the variable of the tire causing favorable or detrimental conditions for the factory bikes can be disputed, the reality of the outcomes are real and undeniable. The beneficiaries of the tire this year have been factory M1 riders.


#4: Not conspiracy, because this is not an 'opinion' by Kropo, which can be disputed, but rather a fact. Backed up by other verifiable sources.