Not-so-exceptional pace
The obvious culprit to blame for the crash was Márquez' blistering pace at the start. It was an argument he rejected. His two-second lead after a lap and a half had surprised him for one reason in particular: "I was not extremely fast," Márquez said. "I was riding in 1'40.0-1'39.8. That was the rhythm. Normally we go out and we already stay there. I was not riding '39.5-'39.0. So it surprised me, but then after three-four laps the other also come to 39.8-40 low. That was the rhythm of the race. I was leading by two-seconds and people can think, 'he was pushing too much'. But I was not pushing a lot. I was riding on the good lap times."
A glance at the lap times confirms Márquez' statements (link is external). On lap 3, the lap before he crashed out, the Repsol Honda rider did a 1'39.848, while Maverick Viñales, who had just got past Cal Crutchlow, set a 1'39.919. The lap after he crashed, Viñales, Crutchlow, and Rossi all did a 1'40.1, then Viñales followed that up with a 1'40.028, a 1'39.895, a 1'39.795, and a 1'39.700. Márquez was riding at the same pace as the trio that went on to fill the podium.
Where was the difference which explains Márquez' huge lead at the start? Blame Cal Crutchlow. The LCR Honda grabbed second place off the line, but knew that the issues he has with the front end were particularly difficult at the start of the race, with a full tank of fuel. "It was critical, no doubt about that," Crutchlow said. "I let Marc go at the start of the race, because with a full tank, I felt it was even worse. So I said, OK, just let him go." Once Viñales got past Crutchlow, he was no longer being held up, and could push at the same pace as Márquez. And a lap or two later, Crutchlow was lapping in the same times as Márquez had been.
Explaining the crash
Why did Márquez crash? He put it down to his own mistake, though he still couldn't understand the cause. "Honestly I don’t know because the crash was really strange. I was just 25-degrees banking. I was completely straight on that brake point. For some reason maybe the tire was not ready, but I was feeling really good with the bike." With Dani Pedrosa also going down in almost the same place, it seems likely to be more than just a simple mistake.
Márquez hinted at the root cause when he explained about using the hard front tire. "In the end we take the risk. We put the hard front tire for try to brake well, try to have stability," he said. In Qatar, they had used the medium front, and he had not been able to attack as the front had been too soft. "Here we plan to take the risk. But in the end is no excuses, it was my mistake and I must learn about this and try to improve for the future. The positive thing is that with all the problems we have we are there fighting for the victories."
In reality, it is a combination of factors. The carcass of the Michelin is not really stiff enough for the heavy braking the Hondas do, which forces them to choose a harder compound. The harder compound is usually also a little stiffer, but it is also harder to get heat into and quicker to cool. Racing the hard front means taking more risk with grip for a bit more stability.
It's complicated
Though it is tempting to do so, the blame can't be pinned solely on Michelin. After all, the winning bike used Michelin's medium front, and had no problems at all with either braking or grip. The design of the Honda forces the riders to seek as much performance as possible from braking, as they are still lacking in acceleration. It is a familiar refrain, yet it remains true.
While the Honda RC213V still lacks acceleration, Honda has consistently moved to strengthen its strongest point. The bike is a beast on the brakes, and can be pivoted around its front end to exploit any sign of weakness from others on corner entry. To achieve that, HRC have made the front of the bike incredibly stiff to handle braking loads, and sacrificed stability in favor of agility. Over the bumps at the Termas De Rio Hondo circuit in Argentina, both those traits worked against the Honda, making riding fast a particularly risky business.
The lack of stability over the bumps was plainly visible. Watching Márquez, and especially Dani Pedrosa, fight a bucking, weaving Honda reminded me of my own biking days in the early 1980s. As a young man, I had a Suzuki GT380, a bike built at a time when "rubber band" was considered an appropriate stiffness for a motorcycle frame. Fun was to be had hitting bumps while leaned over, which would send the bike into a pogoing frenzy to match the punks from the era the bike had been designed.
When a 2017 racing motorcycle is drawing comparisons with late 1970s road bikes, something may be considered to have gone awry.
