Predictions for 2025

MotoMundo said:

Aldeguer doesn't enter the equation.

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I don't really disagree with this but I am intrigued by his potential. He's shown signs of greatness in Moto2 so hopefully he takes to the bigger bike and as the season progresses, so too does his development.

JFM01 said:

It will be announced that Toprak will join MotoGP in 2026.

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Where do you see him landing? He wants a factory seat. Yamaha? Not sure what Rins' contract situation is though.

PRS717 said:

Where do you see him landing? He wants a factory seat. Yamaha? Not sure what Rins' contract situation is though.

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If he's complaining about WSBK being a Ducati cup, what does he think that MotoGP is?

MotoMundo said:

I don't think there will be anyone who can legitimately challenge Pecco and Marc.

The only one would be Martin. Apparently Aprilia has a good base (Ogura and Bezz did a good job in this first GP). Martin would probably get a podium if he were in the Japanese's place.

Of course, technically Quartararo and Acosta have the ability to do so, but they don't have the equipment to compete.

Alex was a "surprise", I mean, he has the tools. But you never look at him as a favorite. I believe he can be a constant presence on the podium and take some points off the official ones.
Morbidelli should be that person, because he is the most experienced in GP24 among the satelites Desmo.
We'll see if DiGia can keep up too, he has an updated bike, but he's physically inferior.
Aldeguer doesn't enter the equation.

Anyway, believing that PB63 and MM93 will monopolize the victories, I made a chart where I think each one will finish ahead of the other in the season. And it's very balanced.

What do you think?

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I've done this as who I expect to finish in front of the other rather than just who I expect to win the race.
I do slightly expect MM to take 14 wins this year if form continues. If that happens I don't expect Pecco to take 8 wins, I expect that AM73, JM89 and either a KTM or Ogura to take a win somewhere.
I expect MM or at least beat Pecco to win at:
Jerez - One of MM strongest tracks, pushed Pecco for the W last year on the far inferior GP23. I don't see why he wouldn't go a step further this year and take the W.
Austria - Not a track you would say is MMs strongest and Pecco has won the last 3 races there but I think this is a track MM really wants to win at. It is one of the few he hasn't and this year is the first year he will be on equal pegging machinery wise on a bike that suits the layout of the track.
Indonesia - I don't think it is either of these guys strongest tracks, conditions likely to make a difference. It's just a pick'em.

Part of the problem I see for Pecco is that Mugello, Catalunya, San Marino are all tracks that MM has a pretty good record at. I don’t think there is much in it when trying to predict the winner at those tracks. Neither of these guys have tracks that they are overly bad at but MM at least on record and discounting the injury/horror Honda years has fewer.
Qatar is an interesting one, Pecco has never won there but Marc has. I don’t think it is crazy to say whoever wins or finishes in front of the other at this track will go a long way to strengthening predictions for the championship. Except for 2013 and 14 MM has had a significant mechanical disadvantage to either both or one of Yamaha or Ducati over the years but until his injuries was able to consistently finish on the podium. The more I think about it the more I am leaning towards MM being the favourite over Pecco.
If MM wins at Qatar or at least beats Pecco after going as well as we expect him to during the first 3 rounds of the season, Pecco could find himself 35+ points down on MM heading into Jerez where I believe MM should be the favourite.
MM has some luck on his side at the moment with a few guys who could be contenders being injured at the moment or at least not fully 100% fit (Diggia, Martin) or on the wrong bike (Bestia). Until round 7 (GBR) I don’t think there is any track you could confidently say, at this stage of the season that Pecco is a clear favourite at.
We need to see more data so hurry up and bring on the next races!

PRS717 said:

Where do you see him landing? He wants a factory seat. Yamaha? Not sure what Rins' contract situation is though.

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A quick squiz shows the only potentially available seats for '26 being Marini's seat at HRC, Morbidelli's seat at VR46 AND Millers at Pramac.
I can't see Honda being that interested in retaining Marini past this year if they have any other options, both Miller and Morbidelli looked strong on the weekend so usurping either of those two could be harder than it looked before the season started.

https://www.crash.net/motogp/featur...der-line-who-confirmed-and-rumoured-2025-grid

PRS717 said:

Where do you see him landing? He wants a factory seat. Yamaha? Not sure what Rins' contract situation is though.

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Unfortunately I could see Rins leaving but I hope Alex will have an injury-free season where he can finally remind us how good he really is.
I said a while ago that I could see Acosta and Toprak riding for HRC next year.
I think Acosta leaving KTM after this season is almost a given. If Toprak doesn't go to Honda he might as well replace Pedro at KTM.

AnnoyingTwit said:

If he's complaining about WSBK being a Ducati cup, what does he think that MotoGP is?

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Well, apparently WSBK changed some rules explicitly to screw Toprak and he's said he's outta there if these changes aren't revoked.

JFM01 said:

If Toprak doesn't go to Honda

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Unless Honda shows some real improvement, I don't think Keenan will allow him to go there. I get the sense Toprak fully trusts Keenan and follows his advice. Now, Honda could make him an offer he can't refuse but would they? Toprak would be a good draw but he's also untested in MotoGP. A calculated gamble?

p4p1 said:

I've done this as who I expect to finish in front of the other rather than just who I expect to win the race.

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What you've done makes perfect sense but I would add if Marc gets on with the bike this year as the first race (I know) indicated, he could win at some of those Pecco tracks. I think Marc is going to shine at Qatar for example.

PRS717 said:

Unless Honda shows some real improvement, I don't think Keenan will allow him to go there. I get the sense Toprak fully trusts Keenan and follows his advice. Now, Honda could make him an offer he can't refuse but would they? Toprak would be a good draw but he's also untested in MotoGP. A calculated gamble?

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Honda has shown some real improvement already and while I wouldn't expect them to have a race-winning bike next year 2027 will be a complete reset anyway.
The salaries Honda and Yamaha would pay should also far exceed what a rider can earn in WSBK.