The fastest engineer ever

Mike, at the time HRC were unaware Marc would be using gravel as a fashion statement. He won COTA, the season he was going to have there after was you could say, unexpected.

JP, good question. However, I'm told millions of MotoGP viewers from not just Asia shut off during the Ducati years after about 3 laps when it was clear VR wouldn't be near the podium.

If Yamaha scooter sales did drop significantly those 2 years, maybe Ducati sales of scooters went up? I don't know, do the Italians make scooters? Or perhaps during those two years Honda scooter sales went up? Honest questions.

JPSLotus said:

Did their sales drop when he rode for Ducati in 2011 and 2012?

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A good question. I have a vague recollection that they did slightly. I would have to check.

Did some research about 2011.

Here's the relevant bits...

Asian (excluding Japanese) motorcycle demand in 2011 grew 4.8%, to 45,529 thousand units, as the benefits
of generally stable economic growth more than offset the negative effects of slower growth in China stemming
from the European economic crisis, and damage from the flooding in Thailand.

Although Yamaha Motor’s 2011 sales declined in Indonesia, Thailand and China from the effects of the flooding in Thailand, growth in Vietnam and India held the overall decline in volume to 0.4%, to 6,059 thousand
units, while net sales declined 2.5%, to ¥594.1 billion.

Total demand in 2012 is expected to rise 7.1%, to 48,756 thousand units, against a backdrop of stable economic growth and insufficient social infrastructure.

Yamaha Motor will aggressively introduce new models and work to increase sales, both quantitatively and qualitatively, and we are forecasting an 18.8% increase in unit sales, to 7,197 thousand units.

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Total motorcycle demand in Indonesia grew 10.6% in 2011, to 8,001 thousand units, reflecting an environment of stable economic growth, the region’s population demographic and underdeveloped transportation infrastructure.

Total 2011 motorcycle demand in the Thai market grew 8.7% from the previous year, to 2,007 thousand units, as a strong economy boosted by solid exports absorbed the economic damage caused by the flooding.

Growth in the Vietnamese market in 2011 was weakened by the government’s anti-inflation policies, but nevertheless total motorcycle demand grew 16.0% from the previous year, to 3,562 thousand units.

The Indian market experienced an economic slowdown in 2011, but solid retail consumption continued to increase amid rising interest rates and inflation. As a result, total demand for motorcycles grew 16.0%, to 13,078 thousand units.

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Frankly, I think Yamaha marketing may very well have been overstating the case. I'm still looking at 2012. Overall global growth in 2011 and 2012 dropped, whereas in 2013 it picked up, but there were far more important economic factors than whether or not Valentino Rossi was on the 2nd Yamaha M1. Euro Zone crisis was in full swing during that period.

Marketing tends to overstate the effects of such things as a rider being on a bike being essential for sales. For example I love Stoner, but I wouldn't buy a Ducati based upon his riding a Ducati. The win on Sunday buy on Monday culture has long died off with NASCAR, and I don't believe it holds true for the vast majority of buyers out there.

5 years chart from 2010-2014.

Industry Segment Information- Motorcycles - For Investors | YAMAHA MOTOR CO., LTD.

Doesn't give more detailed information beyond percentage increases or decreases in the way of why things decreased and then picked up. I'll continue looking later.

Do racing results and popularity of racers really contribute that much to motorcycle sales? I know the old "win on sunday, sell on monday" saying but most of the bikers I know couldn't give a toss about racing.

Kropotkin said:

A good question. I have a vague recollection that they did slightly. I would have to check.

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Just a quick google search, I found motorbike sales were generally in decline because of economic conditions. I think you'd really have a tough time making the case that having Rossi at Yamaha boosts their sales that otherwise couldn't be achieved by: necessity, expanding economic growth, and economic policy.

For example, it looks like general sales growth was declining in Vietnam for motorbikes while Rossi was still at Yamaha winning races, Vietnam apparently the 4th largest scooter market.
.

But motorbike sales in Vietnam have started to decline largely due to a slowdown in the country’s economic growth. Last year growth was up by 5.03% over 2011, the slowest pace in 13 years. Motorbike Makers in Vietnam Rethink Sales Strategies - Indonesia Real Time - WSJ

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And in Indonesia for example, banking regulations to relax down payment requirements were made to address declining sales. That was 5 mins of Googling, so if there is more evidence it would be interesting.

Amid Indonesia’s economic slowdown, the country’s motorcycle sales are most likely to decline in 2015. In the first eight months of 2015 a total of 4,218,089 motorcycles were sold in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, down 21.1 percent (year-on-year) from the same period last year.

Last June, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) eased regulations regarding minimum down payment requirements for motorcycle, car and house loans in an effort to boost these industries.
Indonesian Motorcycle Sales Expected to Remain Weak in 2015 | Indonesia Investments

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My gut feeling is marketing of Rossi is infinitely more important to DORNA than to Yamaha, in terms of fish in pond, its not even close. DORNA do not have buffers like Yamaha do, who faced 3/4 of a million fans crazy enough to sign a petition to change the rules for one contestant who clearly was at fault (God knows how many more felt this way but didn't bother registering for the petition.) Yeah, VR is good for marketing of the manufacture, I'm sure he didn't hurt his brand by having the most epic meltdown in GP history (which again is a function of 'doctored' GP and not Yamaha motor company) no doubt, but I'd say you are overstating the importance, certainly in contrast to what he means to the organizers.

Don't y'all motherfuckers try and rip me off after I just posted hard numbers and even have someone saying the 'win on Sunday sell on Monday' after I said it.

The "win on sunday, sell on monday" relates to production bike racing anyway, in fact one of the few guys I know who rides and is into racing told me the reason why he rides a Fireblade is because it's been the fastest bike around the Isle of Man since 2006 and in as close to his words as I can remember "that's more relevant to a consumer than how fast a million pound prototype goes around Mugello"

Jumkie said:

Just a quick google search, I found motorbike sales were generally in decline because of economic conditions. I think you'd really have a tough time making the case that having Rossi at Yamaha boosts their sales that otherwise couldn't be achieved by: necessity, expanding economic growth, and economic policy.

For example, it looks like general sales growth was declining in Vietnam for motorbikes while Rossi was still at Yamaha winning races, Vietnam apparently the 4th largest scooter market.




And in Indonesia for example, banking regulations to relax down payment requirements were made to address declining sales. That was 5 mins of Googling, so if there is more evidence it would be interesting.




My gut feeling is marketing of Rossi is infinitely more important to DORNA than to Yamaha, in terms of fish in pond, its not even close. DORNA do not have buffers like Yamaha do, who faced 3/4 of a million fans crazy enough to sign a petition to change the rules for one contestant who clearly was at fault (God knows how many more felt this way but didn't bother registering for the petition.) Yeah, VR is good for marketing of the manufacture, I'm sure he didn't hurt his brand by having the most epic meltdown in GP history (which again is a function of 'doctored' GP and not Yamaha motor company) no doubt, but I'd say you are overstating the importance, certainly in contrast to what he means to the organizers.

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There is of course also the fact that both Honda and Yamaha were prepared to lose Valentino in the first place, Honda with fairly extreme prejudice.

I don't think Honda's or Yamaha's motives in going GP bike racing are necessarily entirely commercial, at least not scooter sales commercial anyway, and as I think I have said before I suspect there is all manner of Japanese cultural stuff involved which is opaque to me. For Honda at least their founder was very much a racing guy, and racing was part of his company philosophy.

As Kropotkin says Rossi isn't going anywhere, and it is to his and Yamaha's advantage for him to be a Yamaha icon in his retirement. Having come back from the Ducati debacle to nearly win the 2015 championship and perform creditably in 2014 I don't think he is going to trundle round off the podium for years either as Kropotkin also says.

Jorge is only 1 title away from equalling VR in having the most titles premier class titles as a Yamaha rider, but I am not sure he is as secure there as he could be either. I believe they thought he was grossly disloyal when he entertained other offers years ago after they had essentially chosen him over Valentino, and there seems to be some substance to them disapproving of his behaviour post the Sepang 2015 race, with which I had no problem but possibly broke cultural or corporate mores. Rins is a rookie with it all to prove, and I imagine if Valentino was given the choice of a team-mate or successor it would be Iannone.

AntG said:

The "win on sunday, sell on monday" relates to production bike racing anyway, in fact one of the few guys I know who rides and is into racing told me the reason why he rides a Fireblade is because it's been the fastest bike around the Isle of Man since 2006 and in as close to his words as I can remember "that's more relevant to a consumer than how fast a million pound prototype goes around Mugello"

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What a ......., Honda , even though it's fine bike, when it comes to competition, it is behind just about every 1000cc super sport bike on the market. What wins at IOM is testicles, not what bike you are riding.

povol said:

What a ......., Honda , even though it's fine bike, when it comes to competition, it is behind just about every 1000cc super sport bike on the market. What wins at IOM is testicles, not what bike you are riding.

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This had me rolling. Who the .... buys a bike because a racer won on it? I don't care who the .... or in what racing form. Honda suck donkey balls in F1, are their car sales down? It's an extremely overstated notion, and I've just been nice at the argument that Rossi is responsible for selling bikes for Yamaha that the manufacturer couldn't otherwise. Its ......... There is no greater fan of Nicky Hayden in the history of this forum than me, I've never once considered buying a Honda because his smiling face is next to one. I've owned one Honda, an 89 Hurricane 600. I've owned plenty of everything else, mainly Suzukis, Ducatis, and Yamahas.

Rossi is paramount to Dorna, and it's exactly why he's still racing on a competitive machine in a parity starved series. Anybody who thinks otherwise, especially those with their heads in the sand that Carmelo has single handedly kept Rossi’s artificial results going is either ignorant or worse.

Pov, who would sell more Yamahas, a comercial with Rossi on the bike or one with George Clooney or Tom Cruise? I still remember when Fiat 500 was trying to break into market with Rossi. Nobody gave two .... about him, but Jennifer Lopez sold thousands no doubt. Make no mistake, Rossi is racing at a competitive level thanks to Dorna (Carmelo Clause). Because in the Dorna pond he is the big ....... fish.

You'd be surprised to find out a lot of bike owners made a purchase based on marketing from their favorite rider. Rossi was involved in development for the new R1 and Yamaha put him in commercials. There was a few guys on the r1-forum that took that into consideration when making their purchase. Honda has a Marquez-edition CBR1000 that MM fans purchase. Kawasaki's WSBK success with the ZX-10R probably gave a boost in 10R sales.

It's really the Superstock class that proves the potential of a production motorcycle, but most people ignore that class (maybe because they don't know where to see the races).

Jumkie said:

This had me rolling. Who the .... buys a bike because a racer won on it? I don't care who the .... or in what racing form. Honda suck donkey balls in F1, are their car sales down? It's an extremely overstated notion, and I've just been nice at the argument that Rossi is responsible for selling bikes for Yamaha that the manufacturer couldn't otherwise. Its ......... There is no greater fan of Nicky Hayden in the history of this forum than me, I've never once considered buying a Honda because his smiling face is next to one. I've owned one Honda, an 89 Hurricane 600. I've owned plenty of everything else, mainly Suzukis, Ducatis, and Yamahas.

Rossi is paramount to Dorna, and it's exactly why he's still racing on a competitive machine in a parity starved series. Anybody who thinks otherwise, especially those with their heads in the sand that Carmelo has single handedly kept Rossi’s artificial results going is either ignorant or worse.

Pov, who would sell more Yamahas, a comercial with Rossi on the bike or one with George Clooney or Tom Cruise? I still remember when Fiat 500 was trying to break into market with Rossi. Nobody gave two .... about him, but Jennifer Lopez sold thousands no doubt. Make no mistake, Rossi is racing at a competitive level thanks to Dorna (Carmelo Clause). Because in the Dorna pond he is the big ....... fish.

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Excellent point re: Clowny and JLo, Jums.

I once tried to get some sort of business case for my ex-company's involvement in racing (a few years back, inspired by commentary here).
No hard numbers (not that I think hard numbers would apply). More a case of "we've always done it" and "If we don't the competition will own that area/image"

Jumkie said:

This had me rolling. Who the .... buys a bike because a racer won on it? I don't care who the .... or in what racing form. Honda suck donkey balls in F1, are their car sales down? It's an extremely overstated notion, and I've just been nice at the argument that Rossi is responsible for selling bikes for Yamaha that the manufacturer couldn't otherwise. Its ......... There is no greater fan of Nicky Hayden in the history of this forum than me, I've never once considered buying a Honda because his smiling face is next to one. I've owned one Honda, an 89 Hurricane 600. I've owned plenty of everything else, mainly Suzukis, Ducatis, and Yamahas.

Rossi is paramount to Dorna, and it's exactly why he's still racing on a competitive machine in a parity starved series. Anybody who thinks otherwise, especially those with their heads in the sand that Carmelo has single handedly kept Rossi’s artificial results going is either ignorant or worse.

Pov, who would sell more Yamahas, a comercial with Rossi on the bike or one with George Clooney or Tom Cruise? I still remember when Fiat 500 was trying to break into market with Rossi. Nobody gave two .... about him, but Jennifer Lopez sold thousands no doubt. Make no mistake, Rossi is racing at a competitive level thanks to Dorna (Carmelo Clause). Because in the Dorna pond he is the big ....... fish.

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The numbers I posted from 2011 are more proof that sales went up in all of those key markets that supposedly are benefiting from Rossi appearances like Indonesia and the rest of Southeast Asia.

It's so ridiculously overstated that basically what it tells me is that Yamaha marketing must have done some massive con job on Yamaha corporate that they completely ignored their own ....... sales numbers instead of actual empirical data like a ....... EURO ZONE CRISIS for their global sales dropping.

It just adds more to the belief that Lorenzo should tell Yamaha that if they intend Rossi to be in the opposite garage come 2017, they can get used to seeing him on the Repsol-Honda.

I'm also going to add something else that is also lost in the sales numbers increases in Southeast Asia...the people there are in the upwardly mobile stage as is the case with China. Only China is further along in the consumer economy than Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. But the point being is that as the modern world infiltrates more and more in those countries, standards of living will improve to create a middle class, and obviously what comes with that is disposal income to buy 2-wheeled transportation. Anyone who truly believes Valentino Rossi is responsible for some sales boom has had their thought process so fully doctored, that they can't even comprehend the world is much larger than one man.

JPSLotus said:

The numbers I posted from 2011 are more proof that sales went up in all of those key markets that supposedly are benefiting from Rossi appearances like Indonesia and the rest of Southeast Asia.

It's so ridiculously overstated that basically what it tells me is that Yamaha marketing must have done some massive con job on Yamaha corporate that they completely ignored their own ....... sales numbers instead of actual empirical data like a ....... EURO ZONE CRISIS for their global sales dropping.

It just adds more to the belief that Lorenzo should tell Yamaha that if they intend Rossi to be in the opposite garage come 2017, they can get used to seeing him on the Repsol-Honda.

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Hahaha how do you come up with this ....? If you think Yamaha dealing with Rossi & Lorenzo is bad, Honda having to cope with Lorenzo & Marquez would be 10x worse. How do you picture HRC developing the RCV to work with such drastically different riding styles? If they make the bike work for Lorenzo, they .... over Marquez in the process. HRC had no problem ....... over Hayden to help Pedrosa, but who thinks they're eager to screw with Marquez? Surely you don't think Lorenzo would jump ship to HRC to play second-fiddle to Marquez like Pedrosa does??

moto vudu said:

Hahaha how do you come up with this ....? If you think Yamaha dealing with Rossi & Lorenzo is bad, Honda having to cope with Lorenzo & Marquez would be 10x worse. How do you picture HRC developing the RCV to work with such drastically different riding styles? If they make the bike work for Lorenzo, they .... over Marquez in the process. Surely you don't think Lorenzo would jump ship to HRC to play second-fiddle to Marquez like Pedrosa does??

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Marquez himself is not an issue, it's his ..... entourage that is a problem.

Lorenzo doesn't do drama. MM alone is not a drama queen. Keep in mind Honda also was heavily behind getting Fernando Alonso to McLaren...and Alonso is a noted drama queen.

How do you know both couldn't ride the RCV equally well?

Sounds like you are making a total ........ claim based on nothing but the inherent belief that Lorenzo couldn't possibly adjust to another bike. He's far more gentle in his riding style, and has the touch that would do wonders with getting the power delivery in hand.

JPSLotus said:

Marquez himself is not an issue, it's his ..... entourage that is a problem.

Lorenzo doesn't do drama. MM alone is not a drama queen. Keep in mind Honda also was heavily behind getting Fernando Alonso to McLaren...and Alonso is a noted drama queen.

How do you know both couldn't ride the RCV equally well?

Sounds like you are making a total ........ claim based on nothing but the inherent belief that Lorenzo couldn't possibly adjust to another bike. He's far more gentle in his riding style, and has the touch that would do wonders with getting the power delivery in hand.

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Lorenzo doesn't do drama? Lorenzo's ego is every bit as big as Marc's and Rossi's. Lorenzo will bring plenty of drama if/when things don't go his way.

Lorenzo could adjust if the team adjusted the bike to suit his style. Remember how Lorenzo struggled trying to adjust to tires that lacked edge grip... he missed the podium almost every time!

moto vudu said:

Lorenzo doesn't do drama? Lorenzo's ego is every bit as big as Marc's and Rossi's. Lorenzo will bring plenty of drama if/when things don't go his way.

Lorenzo could adjust if the team adjusted the bike to suit his style. Remember how Lorenzo struggled trying to adjust to tires that lacked edge grip... he missed the podium almost every time!

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Maybe you can point out to me where Lorenzo has created the kind of drama Rossi has created for his entire career?

JPSLotus said:

Did some research about 2011.

Here's the relevant bits...

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Research figures are great for analysis from afar but if you lived here and interacted with bike aficionados you wouldn't question the influence of Vale on brand recognition in SE Asia.