2024 MotoGP Round 9: Liqui Moly Motorrad Grand Prix Deutschland - Sachsenring

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So, the next 2 years will the the Marc vs Pecco show...and if I had to put money down, I'd take Pecker over MM, tho I like MM more.
27, who knows, but I don't expect any ship jumpers to make headway on their new bikes.
Personally I think that Marc will win both years. Barring injury. Pecco is a great rider, but Marc is arguably the best ever. And, I think Marc will do the political thing and psychological rivalry thing better as well. But, that's just a prediction which very easily can be proved wrong.
 
Hey I have been extremely complimentary of Francesco Bagnaia. He's such a fantastic rider to watch, much prefer watching him to Martin.

I don't recall ever saying Bagnaia choked. I only said it about Martin because there's enough evidence of him crashing out race leads and blowing championship leads that it does warrant the discussion of how much he chokes.

Marc gets leeway because he has 8 titles. HOWEVER, I would also say I've thought tons of his crashes were avoidable as I think most would agree. He also never choked away a world title though he did come VERY close at Valencia 2017 when he nearly lowsided right into the T1 gravel trap. But he saved it and became world champion and instead Mapping 8 Dovi crashed out of that one.

I tried to take pains to not single anybody out and I know that you have complimented Bagnaia. I like watching both Bagnaia and Martin. Elegant riding from both, even more so imo on Martin's part. Reminds me of Lorenzo and he will get better. My memory may be faulty but I can't remember him running into anybody intentionally trying to pass them.

Still I disagree about Martin choking. He is still learning to ride at this level. In addition, though he has a 24 this year, I don't believe he is getting everything Bagnaia gets.

If MM gets a pass on crashing while in the lead because of 8 titles, then Martin and Bagnaia should get one because they don't have that many or any. One could also argue that somebody in Marc's position with 8 titles should have enough experience to not be crashing.

All to say, I think all the talk of reasons why people crash are entirely speculative in every single case.

Apparently, Martin doesn't know exactly why he crashed this time, which Bagnaia has also said on occasion. Everybody is trying to figure aero and tire pressures out and to use them to their best advantage. It has to be tricky. Those elements are here and it doesn't matter who likes it or not.

I've seen several articles today along these lines:

It seems that criticizing Martin is en vogue today, which is understandable, I suppose, since journalists have increasingly less access to real paddock information, and they have resorted to clickbait editorials for website traffic. However, these types of articles seem particularly cruel and without context. It's true that Martin has 3 major mistakes on his recent record, Indo 2023, Jerez 2024 and Sachsenring 2024, but is his record THAT different from other frontrunners?

How did Martin get a stranglehold on the 2023 championship? IIRC, it was Pecco's non-scores and Catalunya and India. How did Martin build a lead during the 2024 season? Pecco clashed with Marc unnecessarily at Portimao, and then Pecco crashed out of the lead during the Catalunya sprint.

And who can forget Bagnaia's error-filled 2022 campaign (Motegi most of all), which was only bested by Quartararo's epic meltdown?

Martin cannot capitalize on the gifts he receives, but Pecco Claus has a history of providing bountiful gifts. The difference it seems is that Bagnaia is either on the box or he's in the gravel, whereas his competitors are often top-5 or gravel. In 2023, Jorge Martin had 8 finishes off of the podium. Bagnaia had just 1 finish off of the podium. It's difficult for sprint wins to make up that big of a gap.

If Martin-bashing articles are required, perhaps they should have been written after COTA, when Martin managed 4th place. Martin has only finished outside of the top-3 once this season. This win or bin pattern he is executing during the first half of 2024 is actually quite similar to Bagnaia's formula for winning championships.

This.
 
Everybody is trying to figure aero and tire pressures out and to use them to their best advantage. It has to be tricky.

This is a great point but it's my understanding Martin's front pressure was set to assume he'd be running in front, which he was. Of course there are many possibilities for his crash. I think he is getting pilloried due to perception. For example, when he gets out in front as he was, I'm biting my nails and almost expecting him to crash and then.....................he does. I really want him to take it to Pecco (nothing against Pecco) and it's frustrating to see him throw it away. I mean, I know he has to be sick over it.

They were talking a lot this weekend about how the Michelin rear tire has so much grip that it pushes the front. Is this what happened? Seems he went early in the turn if I remember correctly. Not sure what that means though, if anything.
 
I am quite surprised honestly we have not seen a MM win yet, if it has not been due by the time of the Australian GP i don’t know if it is at all. He is good for podiums, bunch of second places even, but its just not enough for a win it seems. It pretty much reminds me of rossi in his decline after his last gp win at assen, when he was close to the win many times, but never quite managed, even binning it when on a rare occasion he was in the lead, and from there the decline just went on, so that even podiums got rare up to the point where he barely missed his 200nd podium when he finally ran out of time…
 
I've seen several articles today along these lines:

It seems that criticizing Martin is en vogue today, which is understandable, I suppose, since journalists have increasingly less access to real paddock information, and they have resorted to clickbait editorials for website traffic. However, these types of articles seem particularly cruel and without context. It's true that Martin has 3 major mistakes on his recent record, Indo 2023, Jerez 2024 and Sachsenring 2024, but is his record THAT different from other frontrunners?

How did Martin get a stranglehold on the 2023 championship? IIRC, it was Pecco's non-scores and Catalunya and India. How did Martin build a lead during the 2024 season? Pecco clashed with Marc unnecessarily at Portimao, and then Pecco crashed out of the lead during the Catalunya sprint.

And who can forget Bagnaia's error-filled 2022 campaign (Motegi most of all), which was only bested by Quartararo's epic meltdown?

Martin cannot capitalize on the gifts he receives, but Pecco Claus has a history of providing bountiful gifts. The difference it seems is that Bagnaia is either on the box or he's in the gravel, whereas his competitors are often top-5 or gravel. In 2023, Jorge Martin had 8 finishes off of the podium. Bagnaia had just 1 finish off of the podium. It's difficult for sprint wins to make up that big of a gap.

If Martin-bashing articles are required, perhaps they should have been written after COTA, when Martin managed 4th place. Martin has only finished outside of the top-3 once this season. This win or bin pattern he is executing during the first half of 2024 is actually quite similar to Bagnaia's formula for winning championships.
Took the words out of my mouth (well . . . except my mouth isn't that big.) LOL - seriously - well said.
 
All to say, I think all the talk of reasons why people crash are entirely speculative in every single case.
Exactamundo. I have no problem saying that there's a bunch of folks on this forum who are boatloads more informed and insightful than myself, but so many of these crashes that are dubbed "choking" happen when riders look very much in control and are not doing anything all that outrageous and then, BAM! they go down and when interviewed give less-than-convincing explanations (because they themselves are uncertain) for why they crashed. Race commentators feel like they have to be able to explain every little thing that happens - in real time - and spew out meaningless stats like freaking autistic brain jabber fueled by raging Know-it-all-itis, and I think it gets more than a little contagious.
 
I am quite surprised honestly we have not seen a MM win yet, if it has not been due by the time of the Australian GP i don’t know if it is at all. He is good for podiums, bunch of second places even, but its just not enough for a win it seems. It pretty much reminds me of rossi in his decline after his last gp win at assen, when he was close to the win many times, but never quite managed, even binning it when on a rare occasion he was in the lead, and from there the decline just went on, so that even podiums got rare up to the point where he barely missed his 200nd podium when he finally ran out of time…
Quite a dramatic stance for what has been the top GP23 every race. If Marc is not winning this year it's because of machine disadvantage against the superior GP24. Also Marc is 31, and you're comparing him to Rossi at 38.
 
Personally I think that Marc will win both years. Barring injury. Pecco is a great rider, but Marc is arguably the best ever. And, I think Marc will do the political thing and psychological rivalry thing better as well. But, that's just a prediction which very easily can be proved wrong.

The issue for Marc, imo, is that his competitive advantage has been eroded by aero and ride height devices. Fast and loose is no longer the best way to rotate the bike and alter grip balance. The aero and ride height make a bigger difference in those metrics than rider skill.

Marc could win the rider's championship in 25 or 26, but he'll need to be better than Bagnaia on a bike that is built for Bagnaia. That's a tall order for Marc. He'll need some help from Pecco, or he'll need to capitalize on Pecco's slow starts, assuming they exist in the future. Bagnaia hasn't been slow off of the line this season. He's already got 6 wins and 4 in a row.

The other possibility is that Ducati want Marquez to win. I don't want to go there, but it's the 15,000lb African bull elephant sitting on the other side of the room. If Marquez notches his 7th and 8th premier class titles in red, you've got to figure its worth multiples more than whatever Bagnaia will achieve. Not saying it's going to happen, but corporate fiduciary responsibility is a real thing, and there are no rules against playing favorites.

This is actually a spicy situation. Italian pride probably compel Ducati to advance Bagnaia's career, but the dollar signs and corporate governance are leaning towards Marquez. Get the popcorn ready.
 
I tried to take pains to not single anybody out and I know that you have complimented Bagnaia. I like watching both Bagnaia and Martin. Elegant riding from both, even more so imo on Martin's part. Reminds me of Lorenzo and he will get better. My memory may be faulty but I can't remember him running into anybody intentionally trying to pass them.

Still I disagree about Martin choking. He is still learning to ride at this level. In addition, though he has a 24 this year, I don't believe he is getting everything Bagnaia gets.

If MM gets a pass on crashing while in the lead because of 8 titles, then Martin and Bagnaia should get one because they don't have that many or any. One could also argue that somebody in Marc's position with 8 titles should have enough experience to not be crashing.

All to say, I think all the talk of reasons why people crash are entirely speculative in every single case.

Apparently, Martin doesn't know exactly why he crashed this time, which Bagnaia has also said on occasion. Everybody is trying to figure aero and tire pressures out and to use them to their best advantage. It has to be tricky. Those elements are here and it doesn't matter who likes it or not.



This.

Yes Marc crashed a lot during his title years. He tended to do it in practice far more often than whilst racing though.
Use practice to find just how far over the limit he could go, so he knew where his limit was for the race. Largely with the front end of the bike.

He is doing it less now thankfully as the body is beaten to hell a bit now, but yes probably largely because aero has made it harder to ride over the limit of front traction. It appears back to closer to a precipice that once over you are down. Marc did do a big front end save in the sprint though.
 
Personally I think that Marc will win both years. Barring injury. Pecco is a great rider, but Marc is arguably the best ever. And, I think Marc will do the political thing and psychological rivalry thing better as well. But, that's just a prediction which very easily can be proved wrong.
Very true about the cause of crashes, as Lex also says.

What Martin and Bagnaia have both said on occasion may very well be true, that either the aero on these bikes or the Michelin tyres make these bikes prone to letting go capriciously.
 
The other possibility is that Ducati want Marquez to win. I don't want to go there, but it's the 15,000lb African bull elephant sitting on the other side of the room. If Marquez notches his 7th and 8th premier class titles in red, you've got to figure its worth multiples more than whatever Bagnaia will achieve. Not saying it's going to happen, but corporate fiduciary responsibility is a real thing, and there are no rules against playing favorites.

This is actually a spicy situation. Italian pride probably compel Ducati to advance Bagnaia's career, but the dollar signs and corporate governance are leaning towards Marquez. Get the popcorn ready.

We also don't know how Audi feel about the entire thing as I think their wishes would override whatever Ducati might want to be the most desirable outcome. We'll never know the details of what drove these negotiations truthfully. I do suspect they want to see Marc get two titles on one of their bikes regardless of Pecco possibly going into 2025 as a triple world champion. The dollar signs drive all of this sadly. Also did you or anyone else notice how chummy Marc seems to be with Carmelo in the pits after some of these races?

Dorna, Carmelo, Audi, Ducati, Liberty Media....and at the center of it all you have #93. Talk about a biblical shitstorm waiting to happen.
 
I am quite surprised honestly we have not seen a MM win yet, if it has not been due by the time of the Australian GP i don’t know if it is at all. He is good for podiums, bunch of second places even, but its just not enough for a win it seems. It pretty much reminds me of rossi in his decline after his last gp win at assen, when he was close to the win many times, but never quite managed, even binning it when on a rare occasion he was in the lead, and from there the decline just went on, so that even podiums got rare up to the point where he barely missed his 200nd podium when he finally ran out of time…
It has been some bad luck, on top of mistakes that have cost MM not having a win this year. COTA was there for the taking, brake issue caused his crash. Bad qualifying through some bad luck (ie Bradl) or just flat out mistakes from crashing. The difference is at the moment between what we saw from Rossi and what we are seeing from MM, is that Rossi was on a factory bike while MM is riding a year old bike that is unfortunately clearly a step below the GP24.
 
Very true about the cause of crashes, as Lex also says.

What Martin and Bagnaia have both said on occasion may very well be true, that either the aero on these bikes or the Michelin tyres make these bikes prone to letting go capriciously.
As far back as 2016, the front tyre was letting go for no apparent reason. I seem to remember a rider (it may have been MM) explaining after a crash in a race that the data showed he did everything the same but this time the tyre let go and they didn't know why.
 
Alex Marquez let Marc Marquez through because he is his brother. What you sometimes see is that teammates don't try to make a hard pass. I thought how Alex dropped back was something else.

Marc will have a free tow for 2 1/2 years to come, if he should need one. Pecco, with Bastianini and potentially Morbidelli as well, moving from Ducati, could end up without a taxi.
One thing I liked about Pecco was he nver looks for a taxi unlike others.
 
Yes Marc crashed a lot during his title years. He tended to do it in practice far more often than whilst racing though.
Use practice to find just how far over the limit he could go, so he knew where his limit was for the race. Largely with the front end of the bike.

He is doing it less now thankfully as the body is beaten to hell a bit now, but yes probably largely because aero has made it harder to ride over the limit of front traction. It appears back to closer to a precipice that once over you are down. Marc did do a big front end save in the sprint though.
He can be both a crasher and a non crasher is the bottom line, and has been a non crasher to an extent sufficient to win 8 titles.

He seems to have two different mind sets, he can ride a whole season faultlessly and with relentless consistency despite a bung shoulder, but even in his best years including 2014 he has been prone to throwing his bike down the road once the title was clinched. I don’t know why he just doesn’t stick to the first method all the time, it has brought him more wins anyway, but perhaps he was just unable to maintain the focus his extreme riding method doubtless required once he had won a title..
 
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He can be both a crasher and a non crasher is the bottom line, and has been a non crasher to an extent sufficient to win 8 titles.

He seems to have two different mind sets, he can ride a whole season faultlessly and with relentless consistency despite a bung shoulder, but even in his best years including 2014 he has been prone to throwing his bike down the road once the title was clinched. I don’t know why he just doesn’t stick to the first method all the time, it has brought him more wins anyway, but perhaps he was just unable to maintain the focus his extreme riding method doubtless required once he has won a title..

The point I was making was that he tended to do it far more in practice than in the races to find where his limit was and thus avoid crashing in the race. It is not that he hasn't had dumb crashes, like the one that cost him a broken arm, just that he has tended to ride over the limit far more in practice in order to find where his limit is.

He has 8 titles to his name so his mehod has been effective but yes he could have had at least another if he dialed it back a bit, it appears to the armchair critic in me.
 
He can be both a crasher and a non crasher is the bottom line, and has been a non crasher to an extent sufficient to win 8 titles.

He seems to have two different mind sets, he can ride a whole season faultlessly and with relentless consistency despite a bung shoulder, but even in his best years including 2014 he has been prone to throwing his bike down the road once the title was clinched. I don’t know why he just doesn’t stick to the first method all the time, it has brought him more wins anyway, but perhaps he was just unable to maintain the focus his extreme riding method doubtless required once he had won a title..
I think it's about having fun once the title is won. Not riding with the pressure of worrying about crashing.
 
The point I was making was that he tended to do it far more in practice than in the races to find where his limit was and thus avoid crashing in the race. It is not that he hasn't had dumb crashes, like the one that cost him a broken arm, just that he has tended to ride over the limit far more in practice in order to find where his limit is.

He has 8 titles to his name so his mehod has been effective but yes he could have had at least another if he dialed it back a bit, it appears to the armchair critic in me.
Sure, I agree entirely with what you said about crashing in practice to find the limits, that was indeed his long term method.

He is capable of riding a near flawless season though, which we don’t know about Martin or even Bagnaia, although the latter has delivered when it mattered two seasons in a row, and may well do so again this year. I take the point that the current aero bikes and current tyres may cause crashes beyond the control of a rider though.
 
I've seen several articles today along these lines:

It seems that criticizing Martin is en vogue today, which is understandable, I suppose, since journalists have increasingly less access to real paddock information, and they have resorted to clickbait editorials for website traffic. However, these types of articles seem particularly cruel and without context. It's true that Martin has 3 major mistakes on his recent record, Indo 2023, Jerez 2024 and Sachsenring 2024, but is his record THAT different from other frontrunners?

How did Martin get a stranglehold on the 2023 championship? IIRC, it was Pecco's non-scores and Catalunya and India. How did Martin build a lead during the 2024 season? Pecco clashed with Marc unnecessarily at Portimao, and then Pecco crashed out of the lead during the Catalunya sprint.

And who can forget Bagnaia's error-filled 2022 campaign (Motegi most of all), which was only bested by Quartararo's epic meltdown?

Martin cannot capitalize on the gifts he receives, but Pecco Claus has a history of providing bountiful gifts. The difference it seems is that Bagnaia is either on the box or he's in the gravel, whereas his competitors are often top-5 or gravel. In 2023, Jorge Martin had 8 finishes off of the podium. Bagnaia had just 1 finish off of the podium. It's difficult for sprint wins to make up that big of a gap.

If Martin-bashing articles are required, perhaps they should have been written after COTA, when Martin managed 4th place. Martin has only finished outside of the top-3 once this season. This win or bin pattern he is executing during the first half of 2024 is actually quite similar to Bagnaia's formula for winning championships.
Many good points as is your wont.

Sure sports journalism is dead, and I strongly suspect so called journalists frequently get talking points from sports forums rather than doing actual research, so the tail is wagging the dog. As you imply the public relations stuff run by the teams including the riders has got to the stage where unguarded information is hard to source anyway.

With the criticism of Martin it perhaps goes back to one of your perceptive previous arguments, that the hegemon is always favoured, and MM is the old hegemon and Bagnaia is becoming the new hegemon as it stands.

Martin I gather was far from a silver spoon rider in his youth, and has got to where he is on merit. It shouldn’t be forgotten he is not a factory rider, and satellite riders contending for titles has been vanishingly rare over the 40 odd years I have followed the sport, unless the Rossi Nastro Azzurro team is counted as a satellite team, and i am more confident that Valentino got full factory support than I am that Martin is receiving same. As I and others have said maybe the current bikes on the current tyres do sometimes just let go capriciously as well.
 
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