JM has something more in pure speed than other Ducati riders, maybe as "crazy" as MM in one lap. But the latter he's quite wise in this early season... The Alien doesn't reach his maximum potentiel on this GP23. I would like to put my coin on him for this year championship but I remember how Pecco needed team orders to win on Fabio and the strange end of last year season with this rear tyre Martin had in Qatar...
However, as fast as Martin is, I don't think he could be a danger for the title if he leaves.
To me, Quartararo and Acosta are the only threats for Ducati, only regarding the talent, but the first one is riding a 250 YZ and the shark still needs to learn a bit. Pedro will win races it's undeniable but i'm not sure this KTM is strong enough to fight for the championship (rear tyre management during the long race is a weak point to me).
The Aprilia seems to be more competitive but there are still reliabilty troubles which scares (MV gearbox this year), and i'm not sure the "stop and go" style that Martin adopts could perfectly fit. Anyway, I see a big potential in this bike, for the moment and I will not be surprised if Martin will jump on it in the case of he doesn't get the red handlebar next season (and if he doesn't change side).