Yeah, many possibilities, imo. It's possible Michelin made a bum tire, and Martin was unlucky. It's possible the teams are heat cycling tires, and Pramac's usual strategy didn't work as expected for a night race. It's possible that since the tires cannot be used/abused like a sprint, and teams run a different setup with different pressure, and since Qatar was a night race, Pramac went too high with tire pressure.
I'm also starting to suspect something I should have suspected last year, especially after Bayliss' performance at Valencia in 2006 (who was leaving MotoGP back then?)--that tire manufacturers cannot release a new tire to the grid, without testing it in competition. Practice and testing days are nice, but nothing simulates a race like the race itself, especially now that aero wash affects tire temps and pressures. I doubt Martin was testing something for next year, but the people around him could have been, and I wouldn't be surprised if Diggia was.
Prior to Indo, Diggia's career best finish was 8th place, which he achieved once in his rookie season, and twice during the 2023 season. At Indo he comes 4th out of nowhere, he follows that up with a podium at PI (same place Rins took an unexpected win in 2022). For the following two rounds he goes right back to his normal position in 9th, then he wins suddenly at Qatar.
I suspect teams are testing new tires during the season to gather data for Michelin. The riders are probably unaware. The team sets up the bike for the tires, and they learn as they go. If the rider is fast, he proclaims that he's found something. The new setup is working blah blah. But that's not reality, and it's why the paddock is mostly unmoved by Fabio's win. Of course the big bosses give him an atta-boy, and "I can't believe he doesn't have a ride for next year!", but it's all part of the smoke and mirrors, and they are trying to help Fabio by getting Dorna involved or helping Fabio find a contract outside of GP.