Those examples from Ducati's past are another good reason as to why going to the factory team may not really be the sunshine and roses JM thinks it is. Certainly he'll get a nice pay bump if selected, but I can't see it being worth the potential headaches, especially as you said about Bagnaia not looking secure despite 2 titles. I think whomever they select, maybe it's going to be entirely about keeping Pecco under pressure to perform, and who would do the best job of this for the next 2 seasons?
Agreed about learning a KTM not being a great option. I think the KTM has a lot of issues that haven't really been fixed, and it's more of a case of having their day at the track than having a solid bike. Acosta has been flattering the KTM tremendously, more than even Binder ever was. But if I'm MM, I think remaining on a Ducati, preferably the latest spec would be the most logical decision. Ducati will be the bike to beat till the reset in 2027, so why even take a chance anywhere else?