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MotoGP: 2016 Round 1 - Qatar (SPOILERS)

I would add to that with advancement in training, nutrition and supplements athletes are able to stay competitive for longer. its happening across all sports though for many injuries catch up with them and that's the cause of the problem rather than their age.
 
I'm going to disagree about it being admirable Arrab.

Since we never saw any top rider stick around long enough to that age, it's being viewed in a vacuum. It looks more admirable than it actually is. It's already been proven in other motor sports that people can win at that age, or even older. GP has been an anomaly in that pretty much every top rider hung up the boots as they neared their mid-30s.

Of the last group of great riders; Schwantz, Rainey, and Doohan. Doohan went the longest and was done at 34. Mamola and Lawson were done at 33 and 34 respectively. Rainey had no say in the matter but was finished at 33.

The sample size in GP simply doesn't exist to draw any real inference about it being something remarkable in my opinion.

Of motorcycle achievements though, a 47 year old won the Daytona 200. John McGuinness holds the fastest lap ever recorded around the Isle of Man at the age of 43 all while continuing to win. Those are far more remarkable feats when looked at from a greater perspective imo. To be near the front in GP at 37 takes skill yes, but again, 1:4 chance machinery helps quite a bit and cannot, nor should not be overlooked.

I am hardly his biggest fan these days, but he did lose the championship to Lorenzo by only 5 points and beat MM last year when he was 36.

I had thought he would deserve full and great credit had he won for most of last season, although I now find it hard to look past the petulance and sense of entitlement on display late season last year which seems to be persistent.
 
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So the first race passed without any change in the pecking order, despite new tires, new ECUs and new whatnot. The more it changes the more it stays the same...

I was hoping for a Maverick or Iannone surprise... But no, the Suzuki still has work to do for the Sunday and after #29 hit the white paint the remaining top 4 diligently went on and on in a row, -- even Rossi strangely subdued, leaving MM's pass unanswered -- probably waiting for tires to degrade, hoping it would be the others' first. But the Michelins held on well and the race looked more and more like your usual F1 race.

Now other tracks will come, other results will inevitably happen and other winners will rejoice and triumphantly tell everybody else to shut up, -- which is never going to happen anyway, so why bother?

Andrea Dovizioso insists that this year's Ducati is better than the 2015 version, and hopefully he knows better -- for sure Ducati showed it doesn't depend on 2 extra liters of fuel or free engines to outgun the field. And it confirmed it can now go around corners as well. Jorge might be thinking, if it works for Dovi it should work for me too, even better...

The most interesting development in Qatar however could be that Petrucci tried too hard, and now he'll have to sit out of Argentina and Texas. Looking forward to Casey racing in his place... Now, that could breathe some life into this premier class.
 
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I have been rough on Michelin, but have to say i was more than surprised on how well they did in their first race back. Overall race time shattered by 7-8 seconds, fastest race lap says it all. For the soft to last entire race is a remarkable achievement. It didnt limp home either, breaking lap record with 2 laps to go. Lorenzo may be the only contender that can make that compound work which is huge for him.
Im not ready to declare Ducati as a contender just yet, they came closer to winning Qatar last year than yesterday. Dovi says its more of a complete bike that will compete better on any track, but im still skeptical. Being a Honda fan, i was appalled at how much they were giving up on the long straight. In every session, Marquez would be all red, sometimes a couple of tenths, then lose it in the final sector. The damn thing just wont accelerate. Probably will hurt his chances at Cota as their are slow hairpins before each straight. Not so much at other high speed straights like Mugello, Catalunya, where you hit the straights on the fly. . I have faith in Honda to figure it out, but it may be another year where they are constantly searching for the answer with electronics to make the engine user friendly.

Lorenzo, what can you say, just brilliant
Dovi, excellent ride, now lets see you sustain it.
MM, Excellent ride to get 3rd, probably was a 5th place bike
Rossi, never attempted a pass on the best bike , like others have said you get 4th by default. He is hoping to steal a title, not race for it.
Dani, well being Dani, not bad, not great, probably finished where the bike should have
Vinales, huge disappointment
Pol, decent ride, beat his teammate
Smith, has no motivation to push since he is signed. No need getting hurt.
Barbera, incredible considering his bike is as old as he is with no support
Redding, look above, you should be embarrassed
Aleix, you are done, stick a fork in it, 20 seconds behind you disappointing teammate


Ianonne, 3 straight dnf's. You need to concentrate on just finishing a race dude or all the good will you have mustered will be gone.
Crutchlow, bad luck, whatever, seems to follow you.
Miller, At least he beat his team mate
Rabat, i said it last year, the dude was a Moto2 lifer who hung around long enough for a title to fall in his lap, 12 seconds behind Miller and behind Bradl on the turd Aprilia before he crashed.
 
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I am hardly his biggest fan these days, but he did lose the championship to Lorenzo by only 5 points and beat MM last year when he was 36.

I had thought he would deserve full and great credit had he won for most of last season, although I now find it hard to look past the petulance and sense of entitlement on display late season last year which seems to be persistent.

Mike looking at the overall picture, he beat MM yes, but again 1:4 chance machinery.

You have a 25% chance of being in P1, P2, P3, or P4.

Compared to Qatar the past two years, Rossi looked very weak in the 2016 race. Does that mean he will be weak elsewhere? No, I wouldn't expect it. But he simply does not have the speed when the rest are on their game. If the Ducati's are in the mix, he is going to have a very tough fight every race to get to the podium, let alone a victory. Plus whether Pedrosa will be a factor remains to be seen...but if he gets the bike sorted out, he'll be up there too.
 
Mike looking at the overall picture, he beat MM yes, but again 1:4 chance machinery.

You have a 25% chance of being in P1, P2, P3, or P4.

Assuming you bring it home. If that were the case, MM may arguably be going into 2016 as a triple Premier Class WC.
 
Crutchlow's crash caused by the bike ECU forgetting where it was on the circuit:



PA1869859.0008.jpg

Different Cal this time around. Not blaming Honda or the crew??? It had to be someone's fault. ...... bit of luck.
 
Assuming you bring it home. If that were the case, MM may arguably be going into 2016 as a triple Premier Class WC.

Sure, but he started bringing it home in the 2nd half of the season.

Once that happened, the title race began to change slowly.

Then Pedrosa got involved towards the final few races and that furthered altered the championship battle.

Final 5 races saw VR finish, 3, 2, 4, 3, 4

25% chance rule was in play.
 
Sure, but he started bringing it home in the 2nd half of the season.

Once that happened, the title race began to change slowly.

Then Pedrosa got involved towards the final few races and that furthered altered the championship battle.

Final 5 races saw VR finish, 3, 2, 4, 3, 4

25% chance rule was in play.

It was so in play, he finished 4th from the back of the grid.
 
I'm going to disagree about it being admirable Arrab.

Since we never saw any top rider stick around long enough to that age, it's being viewed in a vacuum. It looks more admirable than it actually is. It's already been proven in other motor sports that people can win at that age, or even older. GP has been an anomaly in that pretty much every top rider hung up the boots as they neared their mid-30s.

Of the last group of great riders; Schwantz, Rainey, and Doohan. Doohan went the longest and was done at 34. Mamola and Lawson were done at 33 and 34 respectively. Rainey had no say in the matter but was finished at 33.

The sample size in GP simply doesn't exist to draw any real inference about it being something remarkable in my opinion.

Of motorcycle achievements though, a 47 year old won the Daytona 200. John McGuinness holds the fastest lap ever recorded around the Isle of Man at the age of 43 all while continuing to win. Those are far more remarkable feats when looked at from a greater perspective imo. To be near the front in GP at 37 takes skill yes, but again, 1:4 chance machinery helps quite a bit and cannot, nor should not be overlooked.


Different courses - yes, but the age difference of some highly competitive riders are analogous. Hailwood was contesting IOM at age 38, Bayliss kicked ... at age 36 and Miguel Duhammel was beating talented riders half his age on non factory bikes into his 40s. Ago still competed at 33. So there is precedent.
 
I'm going to disagree about it being admirable Arrab.

Since we never saw any top rider stick around long enough to that age, it's being viewed in a vacuum. It looks more admirable than it actually is. It's already been proven in other motor sports that people can win at that age, or even older. GP has been an anomaly in that pretty much every top rider hung up the boots as they neared their mid-30s.

Of the last group of great riders; Schwantz, Rainey, and Doohan. Doohan went the longest and was done at 34. Mamola and Lawson were done at 33 and 34 respectively. Rainey had no say in the matter but was finished at 33.

The sample size in GP simply doesn't exist to draw any real inference about it being something remarkable in my opinion.

Of motorcycle achievements though, a 47 year old won the Daytona 200. John McGuinness holds the fastest lap ever recorded around the Isle of Man at the age of 43 all while continuing to win. Those are far more remarkable feats when looked at from a greater perspective imo. To be near the front in GP at 37 takes skill yes, but again, 1:4 chance machinery helps quite a bit and cannot, nor should not be overlooked.

I agree with this and would add that he has been sitting his arse on that alien bike for a decade. The familiarity he has with the nuances of brand are unparalled with anyone else on the grid save Paidro. You could stick just about anyone on an alien bike for that long and they would cruise around collecting points on others mistakes just the same
I wouldn't get too excited about Ducati either. Theres two mirages you will always see at Qatar. A competitive Duc and grass growing in the desert. They are equally wondrous miracles but both are as real as motochicks cans.
 
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I have been rough on Michelin, but have to say i was more than surprised on how well they did in their first race back. Overall race time shattered by 7-8 seconds, fastest race lap says it all. For the soft to last entire race is a remarkable achievement. It didnt limp home either, breaking lap record with 2 laps to go. Lorenzo may be the only contender that can make that compound work which is huge for him.
Im not ready to declare Ducati as a contender just yet, they came closer to winning Qatar last year than yesterday. Dovi says its more of a complete bike that will compete better on any track, but im still skeptical. Being a Honda fan, i was appalled at how much they were giving up on the long straight. In every session, Marquez would be all red, sometimes a couple of tenths, then lose it in the final sector. The damn thing just wont accelerate. Probably will hurt his chances at Cota as their are slow hairpins before each straight. Not so much at other high speed straights like Mugello, Catalunya, where you hit the straights on the fly. . I have faith in Honda to figure it out, but it may be another year where they are constantly searching for the answer with electronics to make the engine user friendly.

Lorenzo, what can you say, just brilliant
Dovi, excellent ride, now lets see you sustain it.
MM, Excellent ride to get 3rd, probably was a 5th place bike
Rossi, never attempted a pass on the best bike , like others have said you get 4th by default. He is hoping to steal a title, not race for it.
Dani, well being Dani, not bad, not great, probably finished where the bike should have
Vinales, huge disappointment
Pol, decent ride, beat his teammate
Smith, has no motivation to push since he is signed. No need getting hurt.
Barbera, incredible considering his bike is as old as he is with no support
Redding, look above, you should be embarrassed
Aleix, you are done, stick a fork in it, 20 seconds behind you disappointing teammate


Ianonne, 3 straight dnf's. You need to concentrate on just finishing a race dude or all the good will you have mustered will be gone.
Crutchlow, bad luck, whatever, seems to follow you.
Miller, At least he beat his team mate
Rabat, i said it last year, the dude was a Moto2 lifer who hung around long enough for a title to fall in his lap, 12 seconds behind Miller and behind Bradl on the turd Aprilia before he crashed.
Very well said, couldn't agree more. I'm anticipating Rossi to show a bit more fight in the coming races.
 
It was so in play, he finished 4th from the back of the grid.

Right now, I'm calculating in the early part of the season, Rossi's chances as decreasing from 1:4 to a 1:5 chance to account for the initial strength the Ducati's showed yesterday. 20% chance of finishing in the top 5...which is not bad by any means, but takes on a new meaning since there's 1 additional spots to have to contend with as things stand now...if Pedrosa decides to show up, then it will go down to a 1:6 chance or 16.6% chance.

Biggest variable is the Michelin tires and whether Michelin will be moving the goal posts by way of changing the tire compound construction as they see what the tires do. I don't think they're done with working on the front tire by any means so that may aid Rossi as the season progresses.

His titles chances are dependent mostly on attrition as they were last year. But if Lorenzo pulls a performance out of his ... like Marquez in 2014, the title battle is going to be over very quickly.
 
Watched the race late Sunday. The tension felt like a wet weather race thinking something dramatic was just a corner away. It's amazing how a race event can raise one's heart rate. Only after watching it twice could I enjoy it. I'm happy the racing has got started and much of the questions are starting to be answered. A tentative, well done to Michelin.

Watching both Ducatis blast past Lorenzo was hilarious and marvelous. Ducati have out engineered Honda and Yamaha since 2005, it's Dorna's insistance on changing the rules in favor of Honda (engine limits, fuel, tire) wilst looking to artificially keep Rossi competitive (spec tire) that has been detrimental to this small factory. Dovi says this is a better Ducati than last year remains to be seen, so is the Yamaha wilst the Honda while struggling will only get better. I have no doubt Stoner would have challenged Lorenzo to the win yesterday. I honestly can't tell if Iannone would have beat Dovizioso at Qatar. But I did feel Iannone would crash with a high degree of certainty after 2 laps. My biggest fear was Iannone would take out Lorenzo. I'll admit here a crazy thought that ran through my mind (chalk it up to Rossiesk paranoia) but I felt if the duel carried to the end of race Iannone would treat passing Lorenzo with an added portion of Italian vendetta. If Ducati is a championship contending machine, it's certainly not in the hands of Iannone unless he adopts the revelation that appears Marquez has made, kudos to Marc.

The podium finishers all put in a phenomenal performance, Lorenzo's being thee sublime feat amongst the three. The last two performances by Lorenzo have been overshadowed by the other storylines, Valencia it was Rossi’s fabricated scandal, Qatar by the introduction of Michelin and spec ECU. Lorenzo's on track performance has been stunning if you analyze its details, starting with the pole lap at Valencia to starting on pole at Qatar on a new tire and ECU, considering the Ducati looked strong for a fast qual lap. The lap for lap sequence from Valencia to Qatar is also remarkable. As Lorenzo led the race, think of it as the lead rider in the rain, he's the first to risk the conditions, in this case the unknowns of how the tire would behave in the late stages which could easily spell disaster. The safe bet was to cruise around 4th, letting the front runners set the blistering pace and risk wilst on the knife's edge. Count the number of front tire DNFs by slower midpack riders, now factor in Lorenzo was pushing that front to the limit. For him to then set fast laps in the closing stages is a feat that doesn't get the recognition it deserves. Worse yet i hear general spectators assess how "boring" Lorenzo looks and how unsatisfied they feel when they see Lorenzo hit the front. They seem not understand overtaking on the track isn't a conscious effort that Lorenzo is shying away from but rather transpires from two riders pushing to the limit who happened to find themselves on the same piece of tarmac at precisely the same time. Rossi certainly has the machine to be fighting for positions, so when these spectators get upset with the lack of racing, I think they should tweet Rossi to push a bit harder.

So much for the new "alien" in Viñalez. Hear me out, because I rate him highly. I have no doubt had he been riding Rossi’s bike he'd have come in 4th. That's all you need to know about this ........ lazy missed used term "alien". The Suzuki is much improved, benefiting from the new tire, increased power, and seamless gearbox. Certainly their adaptation to the ECU is a plus. But the bike isn't yet good enough to produce the "aliens" that the top bikes 'produce.' JK said it best in a thread that pondered the next move for Ducati was an alien, by quipping, 'the next move for an alien is a factory Honda/Yamaha.' Consider this, had Viñalez finished 2nd we'd have several people pronouncing him as the new alien, hell peeps were ready to call him an alien just from testing. However, how many people are ready to call Dovizioso an "alien"? Few if any, because people recognize the Ducati is much responsible for that performance. Why is this logic not applied to the factory Yamaha and Honda? Pedro and Rossi's performance did not rise to the level of their teammates, but the machines are head and shoulders above the rest, which accounts for Rossi and Pedro being ahead of the rest of the grid which serves to reinforce this perception. At Valencia, a casual onlooker would have seen Rossi slicing up the field and concluded, that guy is utterly out of this world, an alien, last to 4th, wow. Except when you analyze his performance against Lorenzo. The confusion in perceptions comes from the other bikes on the grid. But if we could have a race where only 4 bikes take the field, like say in speedway, Rossi would be second to last or last most of the time. This doesn't quite paint the picture of an alien does it? Rossi did beat Pedrosa, who had a 'Suzuki' on his ... all race. The implications can be interpreted as follows: the Honda is struggling 'against the best bike Yamaha', Suzuki is much improved, Pedrosa is overrated, Rossi is overrated, Viñalez is underrated.

Just finished watching Moto2 snafu. Mike Webb was in charge of the 'old' Race Direction, he is still in charge of the "new" Race Direction, no reason why I should have any 'new' confidence in their decisions. Fail.

Regardless, good to have some real racing to talk about and analyze. If Casey Stoner announces a wildcard for Austin, I may be looking for a payday loan.
 
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.... you Casey Stoner for repeatedly and consistently saying you have no interest in racing and me ignoring your words.
 
.... you Casey Stoner for repeatedly and consistently saying you have no interest in racing and me ignoring your words.

Kind of hard to focus on the testing aspect if everyone knows you are racing.

He isn't going to tip his hand right now.
 

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