Rossi on the honda or yamaha would obviously be at or close to the front of the field , unless his shoulder injury is permanently debilitating; he was clearly still at the top of his game prior to the injury, having won 2 world championships quite well as I recall. I think the schadenfreude I felt which is diiminishing as I actually don't want rossi to do badly for a prolonged period of time, is due to him having deliberately placed himself in this position, as he easily could have stayed at yamaha or even gone to honda, and because of all the anti-stoner stuff, particularly the bike that rides itself stuff in 2007 and the attribution of his loses last year purely to riding error.
As kropotkin said rossi needs to "grok" the bike before he can ride it to its potential or fix it, and 2 things seem obvious, that it needs to be manhandled with which his shoulder problem doesn't help, and to be ridden fast the rider needs to take some risk that he will become familiar with the scenery, hence the predictions randy would do well which may be correct on evidence thus far. I suspect this is the antithesis to rossi's riding style in recent years, and certainly to the bikes he has developed. In the days before the tyre technology improved and before the modern electronics he rode cautiously early in races till the tyres warmed up, when he had the feel to push to the limit. I get the impression that a precise feel for the limits of the ducati is not something that anyone can achieve.
I actually don't think the 2009 ducati was too bad, but in the change to the big bang and whatever else they did to the 2010 bike to supposedly make the bike more tractable, which seemed to involve more rear grip at the expense of the front, they have made the bike unstable even with the electronics. A previous attempt to "improve" the bike's handling had a similar effect at the start of 2008. I don't think the recent bridgestone tyres have suited the ducati either.
As talpa says this is still only testing anyway, and even if he does struggle for a few races it will be a very minor blip in such a career.
I agree with you and i know old school is no quitter and will be up there after a few races.
I'm also noticing that Lorenzo is gonna have one hell of a time with Spies being this quick so early in the season. Spies even said that he wasn't even pushing at 100 percent.