donnington race

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bikergirl @ Jul 28 2009, 09:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Ah but they could have done SOOOO much better. As a Motogp fan it was downright weird uncomfortable and plain WRONG to see TWO world champions cruising around at the back like 2 losers fighting it out over the last two points (which were only available because 2 riders crashed out) on a champiionship winning bike. Just plain wrong.
I have to agree that you are correct and that no complexion can be put on the tyre decision other than it being a very bad one, and likely reflective of his state of mind.

Mind you, in his situation adopting an absurdist philosophical position is perhaps understandable, given that any result in any given race, from a brilliant and conclusive victory to a dnf has a final common pathway; he is vilified (not meaning you btw; I find your posts almost always intelligent and informed).

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (chopperman @ Jul 28 2009, 11:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>It was the wrong choice for the first 2/3 of the race but the right choice for the remaining 1/3.

Maybe he had a serious brain fart and thought he could do a Waldeman, forgetting that it adds little more than 20 sec to the lap to change bike. That's about the same amount of time as he lost in 2 laps at the start. As it were, the rain tires were not only the wrong choice but after two to three laps it was the "already lost any possible advantage" choice.
That's what made the gamble hard to understand: He had to have solid rain within the very first laps to hope to gain anything. If not the advantage on slicks would be too much and even a turn to heavy rain would just cause the rider to swap bikes and come out in front of Stoner.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Jul 28 2009, 12:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Maybe he had a serious brain fart and thought he could do a Waldeman, forgetting that it adds little more than 20 sec to the lap to change bike. That's about the same amount of time as he lost in 2 laps at the start. As it were, the rain tires were not only the wrong choice but after two to three laps it was the "already lost any possible advantage" choice.
That's what made the gamble hard to understand: He had to have solid rain within the very first laps to hope to gain anything. If not the advantage on slicks would be too much and even a turn to heavy rain would just cause the rider to swap bikes and come out in front of Stoner.


The point is valid but also possibly slightly flawed and I will throw up a scenario to try to explain.

You say he was losing 10 seconds per lap - he admits to taking it very easy in the first few laps to try to conserver tyres (whilst hoping for rain), so he probably could have gone faster but chose not to - could have worked either way were it to rain.

But, you say it only takes 20 seconds to change bikes which may well be true in terms of from pit entry to exit, but what of time lost on the circuit?

Were it to rain sufficiently that wets were required it would likely take most riders a full 1 or 2 laps to decided t o come in and swap bikes (based on flag-to-flag race observations this year). Thus in those 1 - 2 laps their times will have suffered heavily (providied enough rain to soak the track - not dampen it) whist the Wets would have come on somewhat. Whether the balance point would have weighed out one could only surmise but as all riders on slicks made mention of the 'sliperyness' of the track it woudl be safe to say that the slick shod riders would have struggled whilst they remained on track.

Again, a comment or statement of probables, what ifs etc but the above is trying to explain that the 10 seconds you mention per lap and the 20 seconds in bike changeover are both balanced somewhat by the reality of what happened and the true in/out laps involved in changing of bikes.








Garry

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bikergirl @ Jul 28 2009, 06:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Ah but they could have done SOOOO much better. As a Motogp fan it was downright weird uncomfortable and plain WRONG to see TWO world champions cruising around at the back like 2 losers fighting it out over the last two points (which were only available because 2 riders crashed out) on a champiionship winning bike. Just plain wrong.

It was wrong because it proved to be the case after the event. A chosen few are paid to make a call based on the circumstances as they see them leading into the event and take the consequences of their decision. How many people were uncomfortable when Ducati decided to gamble with Bridgestone, to gamble with the demo engine and, the biggest gamble of all, to employ crashie Stoner as he was called at the time.

I hope Ducati continue to make the motogp fans uncomfortable, bloody uncomfortable.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (motogp.com Nicky Haden)<div class='quotemain'>“We agreed on it together with the team but it was my shout, I thought ‘let’s try and be a hero here!’ The tyre was pretty much destroyed after seven or eight laps but there was no point coming in to pit and it came apart five laps from the end. To be honest it’s amazing how it held together for that long! I don’t want to say it was a mistake; it was just a gamble that didn’t pay off and we’ll learn from it,” lamented the American.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Helix @ Jul 27 2009, 11:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Great race, wierd but great. Good to see Dovi get the victory, I would have loved to see Randy get it, but just to see him get on the podium was great, he had a couple of moments, I was just willing him to keep it upright for the last few laps, he never backed off at all.
It was good to see someone other than the usual four on the podium it has been said that it would take a series of odd events in a race to keep them all off it, but this was that race & it was refreshing to see. Even the commentators have taken to calling them the top division & it makes races a bit less exciting when the same faces win.
Ducatis decision was odd, I guess if it had rained they'd have looked like geniuses, but it never looked like raining really hard till much later, everyone nears us was like "wtf are they thinking?"
Sad about Bradley, but he didn't do anything Lorenzo & Rossi didn't, and at least he went for it.
Stayed till the end, and got soaked walking back to the hotel. Just outside the circuit a couple of blokes smirked at us as if to say "poor .......s, getting soaked walking like that" Great thing was we back by 7.20 and just finishing dinner at about half nine when we saw the same blokes come into reception, and being told they'd have to wait till half ten for a table. I made sure to smirk, as if to say"poor .......s, taking two hours to travel two miles and now you have to wait for dinner"
Cool

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (somedamnwriter @ Jul 28 2009, 09:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>ah, you forgot to add seeing them get lapped.

Oh Yes! classic!


(stoner getting lapped that is.)

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (somedamnwriter @ Jul 28 2009, 09:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>ah, you forgot to add seeing them get lapped.

That was painful to watch, after Nicky's good run in warm up, I was expecting a decent finish, but watching everyone lap him was pretty disappointing.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bonnielass @ Jul 28 2009, 08:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Cool

+1

Good to see them leave that low rent track forever. Painting over dirt...ha ha...what is this the AMA?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Keshav @ Jul 27 2009, 05:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Hey Little Man - if yer fishin' - you'll need better bait. Like the man said
you're at your limit. I joined this forum to talk about <u>racing</u>. Not to trade
juvenile, plebeian insults with high-school kids. If you ever actually show
some sign of knowing anything about racing - you'll be on my radar.
Whatever dude, I have never directed any of my banter at you personally, until maybe the gay-tard blast. Although you however on my first ever post, which was all questions just a normal post. The first response was you calling me an ..... and a dumb .... So I really never cared to get into an actual race conversation with you. I would rather just make your favorite rider my huckleberry. I need better bait? Well you bit and I am throwing you back, because you are way to small of a fish.

BTW You didn't even touch Vale picking up his own bike. Just face it, it's because you were thinking about me too when it happened. And you knew that after giving me three pages of .... about how cs is so amazing for picking his own bike up, you were going to get it back.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jumkie @ Jul 28 2009, 01:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Thats a very good take Lex. I hadnt seen it like that. Being on slicks was a great risk also. It only providence that jorge or rossi didnt get hurt.

Gsfan, saying stoner could hav won on slicks is as valid as saying he could hav crashed on them too right? Afterall there were two crashes from the lead.

It was possible. With slicks you could win with rain tires only lose especially because the competition started with them. It is bizarre to start with different tires than the main comp. Bizarre. I don't know the odds of success in that situation but I'd start at 1000:1.

Lex has a good point about the final tally of points they didn't lose all that much in the end. But if he had even finished on the podium it would have been major.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (gsfan @ Jul 28 2009, 02:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Good to see them leave that low rent track forever. Painting over dirt...ha ha...what is this the AMA?


Its better than any track Canada could offer style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/.....gif

It might not be forever could be back in 5yrs time

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Gaz @ Jul 27 2009, 06:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Took your time to re-appear - did you have to stop noting down BMI reading that you had assessed of riders to post - you shouldn't have as I am sure they appreciate your concern and insightful assistance tips.

But you may want to read my comments on the bike pickup before you shoot - it wasn't me you were having that discussion with in fullness, although I did post my experiences and did ask if anyone knew a PT as I get fatigued when picking up to many bikes, thus I get slower. Still waiting a reply to that request.

Nice to know you call me a gay-tard - what is a 'gay-tard' - is that like a motard?

Having looked up the meaning of 'gay-tard' in urban dictionary I do not meet either of those criteria, but then if opposing opinions makes one a gay-tard then I guess we all are, but somehow I assume you were trying to insult. Shame really as I actually don't mind a little bit of fun banter but if you want to insult and insinuate then I guess you are incapable of reasoned debate as really, there is no need to stoop to insults (tells far more about you than it does those on the receiving end)

But, I am so thrilled you even remembered my name and had to group those you couldnot recall - no seriously, I am touched (but not in a 'gay-tard' way you understand) as obviously I am on your mind in some way (hopefully not in a 'gay-tard' way).



By the way, some .......os ruined that other thread as well, and I was waiting on your reply to my last post - ah well.







Garry

Sorry gaz, I spent all weekend looking for my notes. Luckly the bookstore had motogp for dummies in stock. I must also apologize for including you in the gay-tard blast . That was a pinky joke gone wrong. I enjoy going back and forth with you, unlike others you keep me laughing the whole time. You are right about the insults I have done a good job until then, but like I said that was a bad call on my part to go there. Please forgive me.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Gaz @ Jul 28 2009, 01:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>The point is valid but also possibly slightly flawed and I will throw up a scenario to try to explain.

You say he was losing 10 seconds per lap - he admits to taking it very easy in the first few laps to try to conserver tyres (whilst hoping for rain), so he probably could have gone faster but chose not to - could have worked either way were it to rain.

But, you say it only takes 20 seconds to change bikes which may well be true in terms of from pit entry to exit, but what of time lost on the circuit?

Were it to rain sufficiently that wets were required it would likely take most riders a full 1 or 2 laps to decided t o come in and swap bikes (based on flag-to-flag race observations this year). Thus in those 1 - 2 laps their times will have suffered heavily (providied enough rain to soak the track - not dampen it) whist the Wets would have come on somewhat. Whether the balance point would have weighed out one could only surmise but as all riders on slicks made mention of the 'sliperyness' of the track it woudl be safe to say that the slick shod riders would have struggled whilst they remained on track.

Again, a comment or statement of probables, what ifs etc but the above is trying to explain that the 10 seconds you mention per lap and the 20 seconds in bike changeover are both balanced somewhat by the reality of what happened and the true in/out laps involved in changing of bikes.

Don't spoil a good argument with facts
I know you are right, and a more realistic scenario would be 30 - 50 sec lost during a change.
But even then, Hayden were right. After 4-5 laps his (and stoner's) race were basically over.
For some reason Stoner kept the hope up for another 5-6 laps witch of course were totally unrealistic.

[quote name='#22' date='Jul 27 2009, 10:42 AM' post='201964']
I gotta ask this, what the hell is up with Edwards these days? He rode an excellent race and as my best mate from uni is his electronics Engineer

Did he get bollocked for putting the wrong fuel map on his bike at Motegi?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bikergirl @ Jul 27 2009, 11:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>You're right. My bad. Still...2 points justify the choice? Not really. Not when he could have been fighting at the front. Not in a race where all the main contenders crashed or had major problems. Bad bad bad choice. Can't stop saying it. I just pity Nicky going along with it as it could've been a great opportunity for him to give his team mate a good bashing. Meh...Not that he'd have won anyway....
Bring it on Jumk...
Its really very simple BG. You said it yourself, all the front runners crashed. What does that tell you about their tire choice? (That Rossi was able to continue is more about the luck of not having something damaged on his bike or him not getting hurt, but make no mistake, the crash was because he was on slicks, not a very good choice and should have been a DNF). You said all the main contends either crashed or had major problems: Lorenzo--crash, Rossi--crash, Pedrosa--realized being out there on slicks risked more injury so takes it easy (perhaps).

Or did the crashes not happen?

If Rossi would have broken his finger or some damage would have cause more harm, all of you would be saying, wow, what a genius choice by Ducati. Well, as lex put it, they didn't lose out all that much, and they didn't crash. As some of you riders might know, any crash is a high risk. You can crash at 140 mph and walk away, or crashe at 60 mph and have a broken wrist.

Only with the cult fans, can two men crash from the lead, and one be considered a hero for doing so and the other be questioned for his mental toughness. Stoner has no chance in this type of mentality. This doesn't change the reality of the facts, it only says something about the mindset of the different evaluations: Crazy vs those rooted in reality.

There you go BG

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jumkie @ Jul 28 2009, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Thats a very good take Lex. I hadnt seen it like that. Being on slicks was a great risk also. It only providence that jorge or rossi didnt get hurt.

Gsfan, saying stoner could hav won on slicks is as valid as saying he could hav crashed on them too right? Afterall there were two crashes from the lead.

Hi,

My first post in this forum (though I have been reading this forum for last 2 years).

Lets analyse the choices Stoner had before the race started (Note: Rossi & Lorenzo crash is just hind sight)
Case 1:Stoner on Wet tyre
Scenario A : The rains gets heavier once the race starts
In this case, let us assume Casey is going to win the race as every one other than the factory ducati's have to change bikes. So Casey gets 25 points. There is a realistic chance that after the bike change, the yamaha's with the wet tyres will finish in top 5(as other riders will also swap the bikes). (So Casey gains around 9-12 points on Rossi). But for this to happen, the rain has to fall from the first few laps. The probability of which was not so great. So in summary, this option gave Stoner a points gain around 10 with a slim probability.

Scenario B : The rain doesnot happen
In this case, which has equal probabilty to happen compared to Case1, casey was at the risk of loosing 20-25 points to Rossi as the yamaha's were very fast in similar conditions during practice

Case 2: Stoner on dry tyre
Scenario A: The rain gets heavier
If Stoner started on the slicks same as others, he could have still finished top 3 and even if Rossi wins, the points difference would be less than 10 . But note that the probability of a win for Stoner is more in this case as he had good pace (may not be winning pace) in dry+slicks but was really fast in wet. So he will be definitley faster than most if every one is on wet tyres
Scenario B: The rain doesn't get happen
Judging by Stoners practice pace he would have finished top 3-4 in the race and will lose around 10 points.

So analysis is as follows
If the chance of rain getting heavier is 50-50 then stoner had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 10 points to Rossi if he started the race on dry
If he started on wet tyres, and the chance of rain is again 50-50, he had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 20 points to Rossi.

This makes me think that even though it was a gamble, it was a very bad gamble (like may be betting on dovi to win this years title) .

Now, since this is my first post, go easy on me guys

Cheers
Renjith

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Jul 28 2009, 01:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>You should go on asking that again, until you understand that so bad decisions are headline news.

Just because Rossi and Lorenzo fail, doesn't make Stoner's decision better, just luckier.
He could potentially have gained 14 points on Rossi and 25 on Lorenzo.
That would have given Stoner 173. 14 behind Rossi and 11 in front of Lorenzo instead of 150, 12 behind Lorenzo, as it is now. I'd say that is somewhat more than negligible.
Negligible is the two points he got Yesterday.

Ducati didn't get lucky, Casey assessed the track conditions and he gambled that it would rain. In actuality, the gamble was an overly conservative race strategy that caused Ducati to finish at the back. Yamaha's strategy put them both in the grass. If anyone got lucky, it was Rossi. If he had snapped a control or stalled the bike, Stoner would have gained points on him too.

The correct strategy was to go slowly on slick tires. Championship contending teams don't go slowly at any point during the entire season. Yamaha pushed on slicks. Ducati pushed on rain tires. They both got it wrong.

I can only conclude that the press are whoring themselves out so they can sell a few extra rags. Casey's lack of popularity in England is probably the driving force behind sales.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Renjith @ Jul 28 2009, 05:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Hi,

My first post in this forum (though I have been reading this forum for last 2 years).

Lets analyse the choices Stoner had before the race started (Note: Rossi & Lorenzo crash is just hind sight)
Case 1:Stoner on Wet tyre
Scenario A : The rains gets heavier once the race starts
In this case, let us assume Casey is going to win the race as every one other than the factory ducati's have to change bikes. So Casey gets 25 points. There is a realistic chance that after the bike change, the yamaha's with the wet tyres will finish in top 5(as other riders will also swap the bikes). (So Casey gains around 9-12 points on Rossi). But for this to happen, the rain has to fall from the first few laps. The probability of which was not so great. So in summary, this option gave Stoner a points gain around 10 with a slim probability.

Scenario B : The rain doesnot happen
In this case, which has equal probabilty to happen compared to Case1, casey was at the risk of loosing 20-25 points to Rossi as the yamaha's were very fast in similar conditions during practice

Case 2: Stoner on dry tyre
Scenario A: The rain gets heavier
If Stoner started on the slicks same as others, he could have still finished top 3 and even if Rossi wins, the points difference would be less than 10 . But note that the probability of a win for Stoner is more in this case as he had good pace (may not be winning pace) in dry+slicks but was really fast in wet. So he will be definitley faster than most if every one is on wet tyres
Scenario B: The rain doesn't get happen
Judging by Stoners practice pace he would have finished top 3-4 in the race and will lose around 10 points.

So analysis is as follows
If the chance of rain getting heavier is 50-50 then stoner had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 10 points to Rossi if he started the race on dry
If he started on wet tyres, and the chance of rain is again 50-50, he had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 20 points to Rossi.

This makes me think that even though it was a gamble, it was a very bad gamble (like may be betting on dovi to win this years title) .

Now, since this is my first post, go easy on me guys

Cheers
Renjith
7685:military01.gif]

If you've been reading for two yrs you should know thats a jk. Welcome to the forum

This whole Donington debacle is starting to get painfull.

THREE more weeks off this .....