<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Renjith @ Jul 28 2009, 09:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Hi,
My first post in this forum (though I have been reading this forum for last 2 years).
Lets analyse the choices Stoner had before the race started (Note: Rossi & Lorenzo crash is just hind sight)
Case 1:Stoner on Wet tyre
Scenario A : The rains gets heavier once the race starts
In this case, let us assume Casey is going to win the race as every one other than the factory ducati's have to change bikes. So Casey gets 25 points. There is a realistic chance that after the bike change, the yamaha's with the wet tyres will finish in top 5(as other riders will also swap the bikes). (So Casey gains around 9-12 points on Rossi). But for this to happen, the rain has to fall from the first few laps. The probability of which was not so great. So in summary, this option gave Stoner a points gain around 10 with a slim probability.
Scenario B : The rain doesnot happen
In this case, which has equal probabilty to happen compared to Case1, casey was at the risk of loosing 20-25 points to Rossi as the yamaha's were very fast in similar conditions during practice
Case 2: Stoner on dry tyre
Scenario A: The rain gets heavier
If Stoner started on the slicks same as others, he could have still finished top 3 and even if Rossi wins, the points difference would be less than 10 . But note that the probability of a win for Stoner is more in this case as he had good pace (may not be winning pace) in dry+slicks but was really fast in wet. So he will be definitley faster than most if every one is on wet tyres
Scenario B: The rain doesn't get happen
Judging by Stoners practice pace he would have finished top 3-4 in the race and will lose around 10 points.
So analysis is as follows
If the chance of rain getting heavier is 50-50 then stoner had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 10 points to Rossi if he started the race on dry
If he started on wet tyres, and the chance of rain is again 50-50, he had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 20 points to Rossi.
This makes me think that even though it was a gamble, it was a very bad gamble (like may be betting on dovi to win this years title) .
Now, since this is my first post, go easy on me guys
Cheers
Renjith
I think this is a decent assessment of the pre-race situation from the standpoint of a fan. If you had posted this before the race and the weather probabilities were about 50/50, I would have agreed.
Unfortunately for us, our assessment of the situation would be wrong. In fact, the people pushing at the front had a much higher probability of scoring a DNF so the 50/50 assessment doesn't really reflect the true probability. Furthmore, the also rans pushed as hard as they could without worrying about the championship points. The championship leaders were more likely to finish in the midpack while trying not to ride themselves out of contention.
Really, if the press want to gang .... somebody for stupidity, it's got to be Rossi. Both Lorenzo and Stoner were out of contention and he binned it trying to protect a relatively unimportant lead.
My first post in this forum (though I have been reading this forum for last 2 years).
Lets analyse the choices Stoner had before the race started (Note: Rossi & Lorenzo crash is just hind sight)
Case 1:Stoner on Wet tyre
Scenario A : The rains gets heavier once the race starts
In this case, let us assume Casey is going to win the race as every one other than the factory ducati's have to change bikes. So Casey gets 25 points. There is a realistic chance that after the bike change, the yamaha's with the wet tyres will finish in top 5(as other riders will also swap the bikes). (So Casey gains around 9-12 points on Rossi). But for this to happen, the rain has to fall from the first few laps. The probability of which was not so great. So in summary, this option gave Stoner a points gain around 10 with a slim probability.
Scenario B : The rain doesnot happen
In this case, which has equal probabilty to happen compared to Case1, casey was at the risk of loosing 20-25 points to Rossi as the yamaha's were very fast in similar conditions during practice
Case 2: Stoner on dry tyre
Scenario A: The rain gets heavier
If Stoner started on the slicks same as others, he could have still finished top 3 and even if Rossi wins, the points difference would be less than 10 . But note that the probability of a win for Stoner is more in this case as he had good pace (may not be winning pace) in dry+slicks but was really fast in wet. So he will be definitley faster than most if every one is on wet tyres
Scenario B: The rain doesn't get happen
Judging by Stoners practice pace he would have finished top 3-4 in the race and will lose around 10 points.
So analysis is as follows
If the chance of rain getting heavier is 50-50 then stoner had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 10 points to Rossi if he started the race on dry
If he started on wet tyres, and the chance of rain is again 50-50, he had 50% chance of gaining ~10 points on Rossi and 50% chance of loosing around 20 points to Rossi.
This makes me think that even though it was a gamble, it was a very bad gamble (like may be betting on dovi to win this years title) .
Now, since this is my first post, go easy on me guys
Cheers
Renjith
I think this is a decent assessment of the pre-race situation from the standpoint of a fan. If you had posted this before the race and the weather probabilities were about 50/50, I would have agreed.
Unfortunately for us, our assessment of the situation would be wrong. In fact, the people pushing at the front had a much higher probability of scoring a DNF so the 50/50 assessment doesn't really reflect the true probability. Furthmore, the also rans pushed as hard as they could without worrying about the championship points. The championship leaders were more likely to finish in the midpack while trying not to ride themselves out of contention.
Really, if the press want to gang .... somebody for stupidity, it's got to be Rossi. Both Lorenzo and Stoner were out of contention and he binned it trying to protect a relatively unimportant lead.
