since it's misano we're talking about with the surface issues, i'd say if stoner doesn't win, he'll crash. hopefully not in the same infamous corner.
it'll be interesting to see how the stones fair against the michelin's at misano with all the powder. if it's all bstones again at the top, then i think it pretty much proves that they can do no wrong. michelin has the chance the show that they can build a tire for a track with very little feedback. or they're just going to all-out suck again.
if the stones are hooked-up:
1. stoner
2. capirossi
3. hopkins
if michelin shows up:
1. stoner
2. rossi
3. pedrosa
if stoner crashes:
1. rossi
2. pedrosa
3. hopkins
EDIT: oh, and stoner has been on the reverse layout misano during WDW and he said he didn't like it. FWIW.