LeMans 2013 Race Thread

[birdman]

Mental Anarchist

3518961369051536

This is as you say a "theory".  I am speculating.  But I think there is merit in my speculation.


 


There is no doubt in my mind that Lorenzo is a phenomenal rider.  His whole life from when he was a kid he has always been a winner.


 


But what I am saying is that Lorenzo has learned to ride these bikes as fast as they can be ridden in a particular manner.  The way he has learned to extract metronomic pace that few are able to match and on many days no-one is able to match is by having complete trust in the TC.  If you watch his throttle trace it always goes straight to full throttle.  There is no feeding it on like say Pedrosa or Rossi.  His team has a way of working that on almost every weekend they are able to work their process to come out with a TC set up that allows Lorenzo to achieve maximum pace for the entire race.  I am suggesting that they are able to dial in a lap time on the set up of the electronics and Lorenzo knows how to and has complete confidence in the electronics ability to make it safe to ride the bike that way and he, with confidence, twists on full throttle and lets the electronics deliver the exact amount of power for that corner with the amount of tyre wear for that lap of the race.  Hence the importance of race sims for Lorenzo.


 


What happens when this dialled in electronics does not match the conditions when the lights go out?  Exactly what happened yesterday.  I am speculating that Lorenzo can not switch quickly or at all back to riding the bike with 'his' control of the throttle feeding in the amount of power required for the conditions independently. 


 


Keshav, you ask why it happens to no-one else.  Well I speculate that no-one else suffers the same is because no-one else rides this way.  No-one else has the process and the confidence or perhaps even the thought process to go about the business of winning races this way.


 


Perhaps Lorenzo and his team are geniuses.  They have won 2 WC so far, so what ever they do must work.


 


Personally, I applaud people who do things differently and beat everyone by doing it.  But on the flip side I find Lorenzo's style 100% boring.  


 


I am not in the position to prove my theory.  Of all of us, Krop is the only one with the best chance of proving me wrong, or right.  It could be approached in a negative way or it could be approached in a ".... Lorenzo and his crew are geniuses" way.  That is up to Krop if he even thinks it is worth while pursuing.

 


Lorenzo reminds me of Eddie Lawson. Sure Gardner was exciting to watch ride, but 'Steady Eddie' won the championships by working hard on set up so as not to have the bike sliding and bucking everywhere, similar to Lorenzo now. I think its more riding style than electronics.


 


I would speculate where Lorenzo may have an advantage is in the opposite of what you propose. He doesnt open the throttle hard, he doesnt brake at the last minute, instead he takes sweeping smooth lines which not only preserve tires but perhaps even more importantly preserves fuel meaning less reliance on the electronics not more. I reckon you could throw Lorenzo on a 500cc and he would look much the same, and still be fast.

 

[Kropotkin]

birdman

3519381369091718

Lorenzo reminds me of Eddie Lawson. Sure Gardner was exciting to watch ride, but 'Steady Eddie' won the championships by working hard on set up so as not to have the bike sliding and bucking everywhere, similar to Lorenzo now. I think its more riding style than electronics.
 
I would speculate where Lorenzo may have an advantage is in the opposite of what you propose. He doesnt open the throttle hard, he doesnt brake at the last minute, instead he takes sweeping smooth lines which not only preserve tires but perhaps even more importantly preserves fuel meaning less reliance on the electronics not more. I reckon you could throw Lorenzo on a 500cc and he would look much the same, and still be fast.

Exactly this. Lawson and Biaggi are Lorenzo's heroes, and his style is eerily similar.

 

[thedeal]

birdman

3519381369091718

Lorenzo reminds me of Eddie Lawson. Sure Gardner was exciting to watch ride, but 'Steady Eddie' won the championships by working hard on set up so as not to have the bike sliding and bucking everywhere, similar to Lorenzo now. I think its more riding style than electronics.


 


I would speculate where Lorenzo may have an advantage is in the opposite of what you propose. He doesnt open the throttle hard, he doesnt brake at the last minute, instead he takes sweeping smooth lines which not only preserve tires but perhaps even more importantly preserves fuel meaning less reliance on the electronics not more. I reckon you could throw Lorenzo on a 500cc and he would look much the same, and still be fast.

At last some sense is spoken.

 

[Ion Blaster4]

mylexicon

3519371369090083

 You may remember that he was schooling the field in Valencia, prior to an unexpected encounter with James Ellison. In 2012, Lorenzo had roughly the same bike and the Bridgestones were similar.

 


You may want to rewatch that race... Lorenzo was getting schooled because he was on the wrong tire and Pedrosa was reeling him in quick after starting in pit lane. I know my profile picture is a picture of Pedrosa, but still.

 

[Mental Anarchist]

birdman

3519381369091718

 

Lorenzo reminds me of Eddie Lawson. Sure Gardner was exciting to watch ride, but 'Steady Eddie' won the championships by working hard on set up so as not to have the bike sliding and bucking everywhere, similar to Lorenzo now. I think its more riding style than electronics.

 

I would speculate where Lorenzo may have an advantage is in the opposite of what you propose. He doesnt open the throttle hard, he doesnt brake at the last minute, instead he takes sweeping smooth lines which not only preserve tires but perhaps even more importantly preserves fuel meaning less reliance on the electronics not more. I reckon you could throw Lorenzo on a 500cc and he would look much the same, and still be fast.

Not that it is conclusive but on the TV coverage when they show the throttle trace. Lorenzo's does not indicate a smooth application. His almost always goes to full immediately where as at the same time who ever else is being shown is progressive.

 

[stiefel]

Didn't we used to have a guy around here who could tell how Stoner just whacked on the throttle from watching track-side? Maybe we should call on him to help us out.

 

[mad mick]

On the topic of Lorenzo, I get the feeling this is not his year. Last year he was indestructible from start to finish. This year there seems to be some issues. Maybe the Honda is just too fast. The season is long, and we have plenty of races left to enjoy. Maybe he will bounce back...


 


Dani rode a great race. Very calculated and controlled. Hope he can hold it together.


 


Marc did well after his poor start and felt his way through the field. He is a main contender for this year.


 


Cal, gutsy ride. He deserves a factory ride, no doubt.


 


Poor Dovi. Deserved better. He gave it a go from the start. Respect to the guy.


 


As for the goat, well, he tried. He looked pretty solid there for the first half of the race then just blew it. I think he threw away his best chance of a good result for this season. I think there are gonna be some very disappointed boppers come Mugello.

 

[thedeal]

mad mick

3519591369121316

On the topic of Lorenzo, I get the feeling this is not his year. Last year he was indestructible from start to finish. This year there seems to be some issues. Maybe the Honda is just too fast. The season is long, and we have plenty of races left to enjoy. Maybe he will bounce back...


 


Dani rode a great race. Very calculated and controlled. Hope he can hold it together.


 


Marc did well after his poor start and felt his way through the field. He is a main contender for this year.


 


Cal, gutsy ride. He deserves a factory ride, no doubt.


 


Poor Dovi. Deserved better. He gave it a go from the start. Respect to the guy.


 


As for the goat, well, he tried. He looked pretty solid there for the first half of the race then just blew it. I think he threw away his best chance of a good result for this season. I think there are gonna be some very disappointed boppers come Mugello.

He was going backwards when he fell off.

 

[Dr No]

thedeal

3519621369121538

He was going backwards when he fell off.

 


I wouldn't say he was going backwards as much as he had just been gapped by a black bike and had a red bike steaming up on him....his lap times dropped, but not by enough to catch Crutchlow/stay away from Hayden.


 


Ummm, which is what you wrote...but I'm not untyping this now.

 

[birdman]

Mental Anarchist

3519501369114587

Not that it is conclusive but on the TV coverage when they show the throttle trace. Lorenzo's does not indicate a smooth application. His almost always goes to full immediately where as at the same time who ever else is being shown is progressive.

I was at PI in 2011 on the very corner Lorenzo fell in morning warmup. I watched him take that corner every time, he looked smooth and fast and if TC was cutting in I couldnt tell.


He was actually then overtaken by Stoner and to me he tried very hard to see if he could follow at the same pace. But when he had the accident it was obvious to me anyway that the TC was cutting in suddenly and it appeared to make things worse not better, the bike was bucking violently the the engine was cutting in and out, then he highsided. For me it was not a great endorsement that TC is the riders great savior.


There are two possibilities. He was just wacking the throttle open like he had every other lap and the computer ...... up making him crash. Or, and this is how it appeared to me, Lorenzo was trying too hard and opened the throttle a bit to much. The TC cut in but didnt save him rather caught him out and he crashed.


One thing for sure Lorenzo has suffered some big crashes, yet two broken ankles and amputating a finger has slowed him down zero. The guy has balls and I dont find him boring, in fact I enjoyed the Stoner Lorenzo rivalry because they are different. Pity we dont get to see it anymore.

 

[elitemafia]

Mental Anarchist

3519501369114587

Not that it is conclusive but on the TV coverage when they show the throttle trace. Lorenzo's does not indicate a smooth application. His almost always goes to full immediately where as at the same time who ever else is being shown is progressive.

 


sorry but I don't think that graphic is entirely accurate. 

 

[Mental Anarchist]

elitemafia

3519671369133586

 

sorry but I don't think that graphic is entirely accurate. 

Which is why I said it is not entirely conclusive.


I have held this view for about 2 years and have taken notice when ever possible. It is always the same.

 

[Mental Anarchist]

birdman

3519661369129356

I was at PI in 2011 on the very corner Lorenzo fell in morning warmup. I watched him take that corner every time, he looked smooth and fast and if TC was cutting in I couldnt tell.

He was actually then overtaken by Stoner and to me he tried very hard to see if he could follow at the same pace. But when he had the accident it was obvious to me anyway that the TC was cutting in suddenly and it appeared to make things worse not better, the bike was bucking violently the the engine was cutting in and out, then he highsided. For me it was not a great endorsement that TC is the riders great savior.

There are two possibilities. He was just wacking the throttle open like he had every other lap and the computer ...... up making him crash. Or, and this is how it appeared to me, Lorenzo was trying too hard and opened the throttle a bit to much. The TC cut in but didnt save him rather caught him out and he crashed.

One thing for sure Lorenzo has suffered some big crashes, yet two broken ankles and amputating a finger has slowed him down zero. The guy has balls and I dont find him boring, in fact I enjoyed the Stoner Lorenzo rivalry because they are different. Pity we dont get to see it anymore.

I think the days of TC simply cutting power is a long way in the past. The electronic system as far as I know is able to deliver a power curve specific to each corner. For example corner A to achieve maximum speed only requires 82.4573% of maximum power. Corner B requires 77.9437% etc etc. So on Lorenzo's bike it is set up on corner A to only deliver 83% and corner B 78%. But in the circumstances where conditions require only 64.5621% in corner A, Lorenzo is not able to adapt if the bike is still offering 83%.


No doubt all of this can be switched off and maybe that is what he did to try and match Stoner in the example you used and then what you heard is the safety net that kicks in when the rider asks too much.

 

[Dr No]

I see what you're getting at, MA. But have a think about how they might arrive at those 84.452% numbers. They will be based on mechanical set-up. Spring rates, high/low speed damping, sproket diameter, etc etc. And tyre performance. It's not as though you can run 3 psi down, with the adjusters backed off, a saggy spring and your forks pushed through the triple clamps (hello JB April 2011) and expect the laptop boys to keep you in the top 3 via engine characteristics....

 

[michaelm]

Mental Anarchist

3519691369136101

I think the days of TC simply cutting power is a long way in the past. The electronic system as far as I know is able to deliver a power curve specific to each corner. For example corner A to achieve maximum speed only requires 82.4573% of maximum power. Corner B requires 77.9437% etc etc. So on Lorenzo's bike it is set up on corner A to only deliver 83% and corner B 78%. But in the circumstances where conditions require only 64.5621% in corner A, Lorenzo is not able to adapt if the bike is still offering 83%.


No doubt all of this can be switched off and maybe that is what he did to try and match Stoner in the example you used and then what you heard is the safety net that kicks in when the rider asks too much.

I suspect there is an element of the younger riders as "digital natives" or whatever perhaps melding better with the electronic aids. However imo the default position should be to give credit to riders for their success rather than looking for reasons to detract from such success; similar arguments against Stoner certailnly annoyed me as I expect they did you, rather Kropotkin's point I think. 


 


I don't believe too many conclusions should be drawn from Jorge's only "bad" race for 3 or more years; what about all the other wet/variable condition races as has been said. A simpler explanation is that something went wrong with a tyre or his bike including the electronics, or that he mucked up his race set-up for once as appeared to be the case with Stoner in the race after Sachsenring last year; whatever was wrong that day didn't seem to be amenable to Stoner's hand on the throttle either.

 

[Arrabbiata1]

mad mick

3519591369121316

Cal, gutsy ride. He deserves a factory ride, no doubt.


 


Poor Dovi. Deserved better. He gave it a go from the start. Respect to the guy.

And were a factory ride to be availed? - what might still be Crutchlow's likely destination? Ironic isn't it - so much attention given last year and in the run up to this season about coveting that ride.


 


Other than Ducati, what options are there? Rossi is a guaranteed lucrative crowd puller and consequently subsidised by Dorna so Yam is out. A quasi Honda factory ride such as Gresini?  given Alvaro's favourable passport - questionable...anyway, a Monster shade of green is far more becoming of Cal that that dreadful Go & Fun abomination. Or perhaps HRC grooming through the LCR route? - Depends on the politics and whether Bradl can come to terms with that errant front end.  The way I see it - the Tech 3 ride is more competitive than either of the sat Honda's. Austin and I were saying recently, astonishing that it wasn't so long ago that a move to Tech 3 was a career wrecker. Suzuki have expressed an interest but despite being under contract to Aspar, Randy is supposedly testing the new zook and has been earmarked for the job should the factory return next year. Before we even speculate whether it will be a single rider team again crucially Suzuki need to commit to three year involvement to the series which they are at present reluctant to do.


 


That then leaves Ducati who I contend still have substantial interest in Cal as Nicky's replacement and also a desire to headhunt Redding for the satellite machinery. Scott's better option in my opinion might be obtaining one of the fleet of emasculated RCV213v's destined for next years grid under Honda's watchful eye. Mark VDS definitely have the desire and the capability to step up to run one of the leased machines.


 


While I'm on the subject of Valentino. Many contended that his legacy rightfully earned and eased his expedititious return to the Factory Yam. Perhaps..but right now Cal is rightfully earning a claim to that garage next season - unlike Valentino, based upon his current form and even potential. That'll more than compensate for the UK drop in attendance given Vale's possible demise and the disasterous decision concerning the switch to a pay for view T.V. audience.


 


So was the satellite M1 the preferable machine last Sunday? Spalding speculated that post Jerez Rossi would test using last years fuel tank configuration which Cal is currently running which distributes more weight over the front, something we know Vale favours. For a factory rider to revert to a previous years spec is not welcomed but quite common in the alternate universe that Valentino inhabits and the space that he commands. If I recall correctly in '06 a spectacular U Turn saw the previous years bike plucked from an exhibition in Italy to caniibalise the chassis. Now that Jorge is lead developer - not sure whether Valentino irrespective of Dorna's vested interests and Rossi's innate ability to pull strings at the highest level could seem him wrangle even  a fuel tank from so much as a satellite garage. Dorna pay cheques or not..the shift of power has been significant.


 


The Japanese have long memories, as Bazza found out after the 1979 MCN awards. As far as Rossi is concerned I reckon last year even HRC would have had selective amnesia had the Coca Cola money for a satellite ride come through. Regarding Cal, not sure how much damage he's done at Yamaha. I think a factory ride there will always elude him.

 

[birdman]

Mental Anarchist

3519691369136101

I think the days of TC simply cutting power is a long way in the past. The electronic system as far as I know is able to deliver a power curve specific to each corner. For example corner A to achieve maximum speed only requires 82.4573% of maximum power. Corner B requires 77.9437% etc etc. So on Lorenzo's bike it is set up on corner A to only deliver 83% and corner B 78%. But in the circumstances where conditions require only 64.5621% in corner A, Lorenzo is not able to adapt if the bike is still offering 83%.

No doubt all of this can be switched off and maybe that is what he did to try and match Stoner in the example you used and then what you heard is the safety net that kicks in when the rider asks too much.

My theory is Lorenzo started in motogp as wild as any other rookie. He crashed, podium, won, crashed big time at Laguna, a typical rookie highside. Then like all great riders the light came on between the ears and he found a way to extract the most out of himself and the bike he had. From there he stopped crashing and developed his now well known metronomic style. Either that or he got a processor upgrade.


For sure electronics would be a big part of that, but its the same with Stoner on the 07 Ducati. The electronics are a tool like any other part of the package and the great riders use it to their advantage. I doubt the electronics geeks alone can make a good rider great.

 

[michaelm]

Ion Blaster4

3519451369102399

You may want to rewatch that race... Lorenzo was getting schooled because he was on the wrong tire and Pedrosa was reeling him in quick after starting in pit lane. I know my profile picture is a picture of Pedrosa, but still.

Perhaps so, but what would have eventuated had he not gone off the dry line to pass (actually lap) Elison, doubtless pressured by Dani's pace, but with both riders having nothing to lose, is hard to know.


 


No doubt what happened at Le Mans 2012 though, Jorge streeted the field particularly Dani in similar conditions.

 

[michaelm]

replied to wrong post

 

[michaelm]

birdman

3519731369138014

My theory is Lorenzo started in motogp as wild as any other rookie. He crashed, podium, won, crashed big time at Laguna, a typical rookie highside. Then like all great riders the light came on between the ears and he found a way to extract the most out of himself and the bike he had. From there he stopped crashing and developed his now well known metronomic style. Either that or he got a processor upgrade.


For sure electronics would be a big part of that, but its the same with Stoner on the 07 Ducati. The electronics are a tool like any other part of the package and the great riders use it to their advantage. I doubt the electronics geeks alone can make a good rider great.

Exactly. If it is so simple, as with Stoner on the Ducati, why can't everyone do it?