Thanks for taking the time to further discuss this topic regarding the importance of tires. I think you make some good points Talpa, though as JK mentioned I don't agree that Bridgestone was in the same position to provide custom tires over night. However, you make some other interesting suggestions.
Talpa
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So Jums, well written piece BTW.
Your conclusion is what interests me most, and I'll get to that.
Whilst Bridgestone were improving in 2005-06, they were mostly still well and truly not the 'tyre' to be on in those years. The only thing that changed, as we all know was the tyre supply reg in 2007, and hey presto, Michelin's entire strategy-the SNS's (a strategy which dominated the sport for years) was rendered useless. What was interesting is that Dorna removed Michelin's advantage, only to give it to Bridgestone, due to the very nature of the way the companies supplied product. My preference, in a prototype series, is for the best to be on the best, and if that means rubber that's made overnight then so be it. Bridgestone could have done the same in those years, instead they choked Michelin with a reg.......and especially if the alternative is what we now have, which is a series in which 4 entrants have a shot at winning, a horrendous increase in R & D, crewing and manufacturing cost for any maker game to actually participate, of which there are now only 3, 2 of which who are serious. All of this is mostly due to the Sole tyre supplier, and the type and lack of option of product this supplier supplies. Again I personally would like to see Rubber options instead of what we see now, which is Honda bringing umpteenth Chassis options, some of which for all we know could be built over the course of a race weekend.......at least the SNS's were supplied to multiple teams, giving at least 8-10 riders a shot of winning-instead of what we see now 3 or 4. It was Gobermier who recently was most outspoken about this, particularly with the nature of the Bridgestone's.
I made a mistake in my post which a friend pointed out. I said that Bridgestone had notched their first win sometime in 05, actually, checking with BJCpedia, it turns out their first win was in 04, at Brazil with Nakano.
You say best riders deserve the best. I'm curious to know how we could determine who is "the best"? I understand that recourses are limited, and it is a competition after all, however, if a few riders based on both talent and influence based solely on politics consistently get the goods, how can anybody else compete? I don't want to get off on a tangent, however, Pol Espargaro was linked to a factory Yamaha ride. He is talented no doubt, but if if he ends up on a competitive bike and Redding ends up on less, guess who will end up with the better results. Its not hard to predict that Pol would end up with the better results, and guess what people would conclude. Then what happens, Redding's career would ebb and Pol would continue to get facilitated results. Its a difficult dynamic to mitigate, I admit.
The SNS program was a bit shady at best, with no controls or transparency! Much of what we know about it is speculation, save the fact we knew it existed and we know a very few riders were given the opportunity. Try and get Kropos to tell you about the less than competitive tires at the back of the Pirelli semi-truck trailer in Wsbk. Randy Mamola spoke about the SNS program in his Alpinestars blog many years ago, and he said of the few riders (certainly not 8-10 but more like 1-4) it was debatable who got... in his words:
"the good stuff". That is, despite the program of custom tires being available to a few riders and teams some may have got what they actually ordered while others might have got slightly less.
Talpa
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Back to how this has effected Rossi, well as we know he and his team were the greatest exponents of the SNS's, they've always based their strategy on Race setup, across the entire weekend, which is predominantly why Rossi has always qualified poorly-this continues today. The others at the time, simply weren't as good, despite many of them having SNS's-Colin famously once said he couldn't actually ride on the rubber Rossi was using. The tyre supply regulation in 2007 gave Bridgestone the series, coupled with the fuel limit decrease, spelt the end for Michelin and their entire philosophy. They also dropped the ball with internal issues providing them an easy out in 2008, not even applying for the sole supplier rights. It certainly was no coincidence that Rossi's utter domination was at an end here, he did however go on to win 2 more titles, one of which under the sole supplier rule in 2009.
I agree that VR & Co were the best at exploiting the SNS program....but why? I would start with giving credit to VR to communicate his tire needs and the team to support him in that regard AND Michelin for delivering the goods. This also begs the question, why were others not capable of such success? I remember Colin's quote, he said that VRs tires were hard as ..... Up until 2010, every team Rossi has ridden for has been his team. Do you think Rossi was going to tolerate Edwards getting suitable tires? Even though, I will admit, I don't think Edwards would have really challenged Rossi, as I consider the Italian the more talented rider. But then again, I would also consider Toni Elias far inferior to Rossi, and look what happened on a fateful day where he just happened to stumble on some 'good' tires! But the point is, would have Edwards really been in a position to demand and then get tires that would have risked taking points away from Rossi? I seriously doubt it buddy. After all my friend, les we forget why VR left Yamaha in the first place for what he thought was greener pastures.
Good point about the tire regs of 07 & 08, I forgot to mention this in my essay. The change in tire allotment did change the game quite a bit, but I disagree it gave Bridgestone the series. Michelin was plenty good even in 2007, and Bridgestone was plenty good in 2006. As I said, Loris/Ducati/
Bridgestone was good enough to mount a title challenge. Even without Nicky's good luck (if you can call competing on a lab bike and getting torpedoed by a teammate good luck) and Valentino's bad luck, and I do admit Talps, VR did have lots of bad luck (though this has to be contrasted with the elevated status he had/has enjoyed for many years) even still, I believe without that Catalunya crash, Loris would have ended up the champ. Yes, a bit of speculation, but then again, the SNS program did leave much to the imagination, eh. I'll also add, you are correct that the tire allotment did hasten the demise of Michelin, though I think it was an unintended consequence. When the regs were discussed at the end of 06 to be implemented the following season, they never dreamed that Stoner (or as he was called, Crashy) was going to destroy the competition in 07.
Mr. Burgess was known for pulling a rabbit out of a hat come race day, more often than not, I contend that rabbit came in a FedEx box with a return address from France. I wouldn't blame Michelin for exiting the game, as they were thrown a vote of confidence from Ducati Corse in 2008 when they petitioned to work with the French tire manufacture as they had done exclusively with Bridgestone. Guess who nixed that proposal. On the heels of such a dominant 2007, lets consider why Dorna wouldn't want Ducati to work with Michelin for a moment, shall we? I leave it to you all to speculate the reasons...
Talpa
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What isn't debated enough here, and elsewhere is the tiny performance envelop the riders have. A classic example is 2008, the updated Bridgestones apparently didn't suit Stoner ( 6 wins tells me otherwise)-same thing in 2012, a simple compound change and Stoner went from utterly dominant, to a distant third place. Much of the blame for the Sole supplier rule is pointed at Rossi, usually by detractors (make of that what you will), when his contact was up with Michelin at the end of the season 2007-moved to Bridgestone, however recent times and the regulations circumvented for certain Spanish entrants and their monstrous Oil Sponsor's tell me that Pedders dummy spit and switch mid-way through 2008 is far more to blame.
Agree with your opening sentence above Talps, that is exactly the point I'm trying to make, that is, very small advantages or unmitigated disadvantages (or disparity via a whole host of reasons) can have major repercussions on championships. 6 wins was quite a good season for Stoner right..., contrast that to the record breaking season of 2007 though; and friend, keep in mind the tires had moved away from the idiosyncratic Ducati just enough to make a difference, as you say, a tiny envelop of performance, now multiply that with a quirky unstable platform that is the Ducati (something nobody really actually fully believed until 2011).
I think VR's move to Bridgestone nailed the coffin, though Pedro's switch certainly did beat the dead horse.
Talpa
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So if we are to conclude that the rubber on the road, and Rossi's ability to use it, is the main contributing factor to his dominance of the sport during the
990 era, we then must also conclude that Stoner's dominance in 2007 (particularly due to the surprise nature of his dominance that year-and subsequent failure to ever reproduce this on the Ducati) was also mostly down to rubber-and his ability to use it. With the Bridgestone noose tightening evermore post 2009, Honda being what they are grabbed the best rider for the job- outspent, and outnumbered the competition in 2011 to finally grab on 800cc title, only to have this strategy backfire in 2012 and hand the title to Jorge and Yamaha. Stoner's decline in 2008 and 2012, once again is popularly contributed to a change in rubber supply to improve things for the competition, a lot of the proponents of this theory however don't apply the same explanation to Rossi's decline,
in this case the competition is better now, Rossi only won because of this or that etc. Rossi's decline in 2007 can be directly attributed to rubber supply with a far more drastic change to the materials than what was 2008 or 2012, even in 2006 when he had two rubber failures during races. Not too mention his failure at Ducati, which as we are now seeing is predominantly due to rubber supply and Ducati's inability to engineer the bike around the tyre, whilst the competition, move on in leaps and bounds year after year. And even
Rossi's troubles now with the Yamaha, being such a honed machine to work with the rubber, and Jorge's style, can either be attributed to Rossi never being good enough/not ever a match for the current crop without significant tech advantages or to a lack of rubber which works for Rossi and his machine..........just as with Casey or Jorge in 2011
Therefore 'rubber on the road' didn't just have game changing significance from 2001-2006......all results need to be viewed with the consideration of rubber and how it may or may not work for a particular rider and the competition.
For the record Talps, I was for the spec tire. I was for it for the fact that it was such an un-level playing field prior to 07. But as you have made the case often, the unintended consequences of having a single tire supplier has left us with even less competition among the entires. At least in the 990 era culminating with 2006 we could on any given Sunday see a satellite on the top step, if not even a privateer! Now as you say, we are left with a ........ quartet of bikes on for the wins, the rest left to eat the crumbs of misfortune from the top 4. I have to disagree with your assessment that Valentino's struggle is due to the peculiar development synergy with the current M1 and the tires; I simply think Lorenzo is and his crew are just better than Rossi & Co. Its really just a continuation from 2010 where Lorenzo was matching and surpassing Rossi (excluding the leg injury). Now Lorenzo is even more confident, experienced, and mature, where I don't think YamahaGP Racing are treating the riders much differently then they did 3 years ago. And before you say that its now Lorenzo's bike, keep in mind when Lorenzo won the title in 2010, the M1 was decidedly Valentino's bike.
I also agree with your point that the 2011 championship was only going to be between Casey and Lorenzo. Pedrosa needed to be on the undisputed most dominant bike (which was delivered the second half of the season after HRC through everything at the project) for him to look halfway decent; whereas at least Stoner soldiered on and pressed for the better part of the first half until he got injured. After that it was pretty much game over and all Lorenzo had to do was manage the title. You can say that Lorenzo's championship was due to his competition being sequestered on inferior machines (
some might actually erroneously conclude Lorenzo's rivals were themselves inferior, well in Pedrosa's case they would be right). But just like Rossi's competition was made to contend during the FUC era, in a way Rossi FUCed himself in 2010-2011.