[quote post="357898" timestamp="1376153007"]
My old friend. For the purposes of this forum I am contemplating re- christening you as 'mymexican'. Not that this unholy alliance would ever tempt you to preach the liturgy of Lex or after so many years reopen the vaults of the Lex Files, but alarmingly you do seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet of late.I concede, you make many robust points to bolster and buttress your contentions but much like our Texan friend, the theoretical foundation which underpins the case you are attempting to construct is built on the shifting sands of sophistry as opposed to the bedrock and cornerstones of immutable and ineluctable evidence.Nationality plays a significant part in paddock politics - of course it does, but it does not always or invariably overlook talent or greater commercial interest. Should we however be in anyway surprised when we detect a Spanish bias, particularly in view of the fact that as BJC correctly pointed out, that afterall, they did see fit to purchase the bloody series. For all Dorna's meddling and micro-mangement, for all their myopia, not to embrace an international perspective and pursue a holistic global strategy would be suicidal as a business.If we are however to hypothetically model any useful scenario then indeed it should be the suggestion posited by Povol concerning how a rider of Bautista's calibre would fare should Marquez's full factory ride and resources have been availed to him. You make a very good point however regarding the repeal of the rookie ruling and that had this barrier not been removed then Marquez would have been languishing for a year in ghastly garish Gresini Go and Fun green. Had that rule not been revoked and reversed in a timely manner by HRC sorry, Dorna, then yes their great white hope would have been consigned to a 1 year contract in line with the rules within a satellite squad. You really think for one second though that the bike would have been the same? You can tell me given the politics that HRC wouldn't have a Go and Fun bike beating their works badged RCV..I recall a San Carlo machine and several Telefonica liveries that went pretty well, not to mention a nice little Nastro Azzurro number that was no stranger itself to Parc Ferme. Yeah the Rookie rule was circumvented via a hint of Spanish flavoured politics - nobody to my knowledge has refuted that and also pressure from the sponsor...which yes, is also Spanish. Had this not been the case Marquez would still be on a factory bike irrespective of his nationality, because that's what's HRC want - and here lies the nub of the argument. They don't want Baustista on a fully fledged factory bike because quite simply he isn't on the level of Marc Marquez. Suspend the Spanish - centric politics for a second here, the reason Marco Simoncelli - an Italian was given a full factory contract with HRC on a Gresini bike is because they wanted him. Sure, it was an Italian team and an Italian sponsor, but it was a full factory Honda. But Marquez didn't end up on the Gresini machine did he, why? It was HRC not as you suppose Dorna that pushed to veto the rookie rule and get Marquez on the full factory RCV. Notwithstanding nationality the only Spanish interest was primarily the sponsor.Stick Marc on the Go and Fun machine and I disagree with you, Marquez would be challenging Lorenzo and Pedrosa...but then as I said the machine would not be the same spec by virtue of its owners so we have hit another moot point.Let's do the reverse then, and return to the prospect of Alvaro on a Repsol ride, because I contend that the reason you find no purpose in modelling such a scenario isbecause at the heart of this debate is that the term 'alien' is anathematic to you...perhaps rightly so, perhaps not. Perhaps it's just the popular lazy label or tag adopted by naive casual observes of the sport that buy into the hype without appreciating the politics that so justifiably irks you. Or is it just the fact that to me the term is predicated upon talent alone. In view of this I understand why you think it pointless to switch this around. After all - four 'aliens' coincidentally riding the four best motorcycles on the grid - so let's see how they fare on lesser machines. To a certain extent we did when Valentino's vanity dealt him the Desmo and his career spectacularly backfired - for the first time in his career having to overcome significant handicap in machinery.But, you have conceded that Bautista would not be capable given the machinery of replicating the results of Dani and Marc and i think that is contrary to your belief, very relevant to this debate. I ask you then, who could? Remove Marc Marquez and Dani Pedrosa, who would you replace them with? Right now, who can step up to the mantle? No one can set up and ride that M1 the way that Jorge does. To Cal's credit, he's relegated his gung-ho style to the distant past and is desperately trying to figure out Jorge's technique. Doing it your way - hand Marquez Bautista's bike and I guarantee you that he'll ride it faster and as Casey did prior to signing with Ducati, perhaps at times beyond its limits, in a unique gifted style which betrays huge talent potential and attracts immediate interest form both factories and sponsors irrespective of nationality. He's simply better than the 'second tier riders'. He's better than Bradl, better than Crutchlow, better than Dovi and he's better than Bautista and he's a ....... rookie. You've already argued that he's better than Pedrosa so of the remaining two coveted rides, that leaves Rossi and Lorenzo. I believe all things equal he has the measure of Valentino now, Jorge? - ......he's damn good isn't he. See what i mean.(On the subject of Crutchlow, discussion around the issue of the fuel tank is extremely complex. Are you aware that Valentino was requesting that configuration? It seems to impede Cal during the first quarter of the race when it is laden but there is no doubt that it has been greatly beneficial to him this season in improving front end feel, not least in the wet at Le Mans).Alongside this, the entire thrust of your argument appears to be that Spanish riders are favourably nurtured and supported often at the expense of more deserving talent which is criminally overlooked. Yes, undoubtably this has happened, alongside the allegations of corruption and fixing, but Dorna's acquisition of the series had brought with it many positivities and benefits which often float over the heads of the collective unconsciousness comprising forum communities. I think it far more significant and indeed sinister/insidious, the substantial influence that HRC exert on both the championship and the MSMA and the possible future ramifications of this. I'd rather embrace the King of Spain and sing proudly, or rather in the absence of words, hum the Marcha Real every morning thrice before breakfast for the rest of my life thereby celebrating Spanish sovereignty over the series for all eternity than see the Evil Empire exert its will. Unfortunately it invariably does and for that reason should be far more the focus of a protracted political debate such as this than the issues of Spanish nationalism and perceived protectionism.[/quote]
Again, from my fone: (which for whatever reason doesn't format seperate paragraphs).
Amigo, I write this from Amish and Mennonite country, did u know there are grey and black buggies to distinguish the two sects? Learned that today.
Ok lets continue this exchange for ..... and giggles, eh. Always my pleasure to pick at ur racing mind.
1. Because Lex agrees with me doesn't make me wrong.2 (a.) U say I built my argument on "shifty sand"; but the counter argument offers nothing remarkably more solid by way of evidence. Its a battle of circumstancial evidence and logical witts based on extrapulated speculation. We are both attempting to explain and account for the gross over representation of Spanish riders. I say its because of Spanish facilitation u say its not that simple (which means u concede to a degree). So the nature of Spanish influence is 'complex', ok I accept...so it can be accounted directly, indirectly, and through happenstance; again i accept this notion. U said, "Nationality plays a significant part in paddock politics - of course it does, but it does not always or invariably overlook talent or greater commercial interest." which means it does 'sometimes';Im content with that, as it seems we are only separated by a matter of magnitude; I say Spanish favoritism accounts predominantly for this gross overrepresentation decidedly by design! You say, well, it is not 'always' the case, not always, well sure; No argument. ...AND isn't that what I have been saying all along? In addition I'm saying its got worse in recent years, especially now that the powers in charge have become more sophisticated!! That there are outliers doesn't nullify my contention!
2. ( B). Never underestimate the power of the mind, belief and re enforcement. Perhaps VR believed he really was infallible when he took that fateful step onto Ducati. And why not, everybody else told him he was, and the facilitated record reenforced the notion. I would have believed it too. (Though I once wrote an extensive post that outlined how I might have been able to logically convince VR that going to Ducati would have a near certain probability of failure. Though to which he might have replied, "what if I had never tried it." I said a year or so ago Casey was losing the 2012 title when his heart and more importantly, his mind were no longer in it. Others made the case it was a technical disadvantage that he was unable to mitigated (perhaps combination of both). Again, you said I trivialized the chatter he experienced and rather was a "major tire problem" that didn't suit his riding, yet as I said, he was able to reach the podium all first four races to start the season, and notched two wins in the process. Then... the big announcement came. Relevance? You say (in our separate debate) I conceded Alvaro would not have replicated Marc or Dani's record on a works and badged HRC machine, however good sir the relevant speculation is: where Marc would fair on a satellite bike, with inferior support and inferior machine to the other three current rivals on Japanese factory bikes COUPLED with how this would affect perceptions! Its irrelevant where Alvaro would be in this scheme, as my contention is Marc would NOT be leading and unlikely would have won a race. You don't need to convince me that Marc would ride the GoFun bike better than Alvaro, (or that Alvaro wouldn't ride the HRC bike as good) you need to try and convince me that Marc would have won races. And even if we entertain this thought, its a tangent to the actual debate, as I said before, this is not a debate about Marc being an outlier, but rather the propensity of the League to favor Spaniards!!!
2. (c) .1. As part of the conversation we discuss Marc by saying he is deserving of the promotion. I'm saying, ok, he is special, but the fact they paved the way supports this Spanish-centric underlying propensity of favoritism. As I said before, debating Marc is a separate argument, but I'll entertain it; lets take a look at his three wins. You think Marc would have won the AustinGP, against Dani on Alvaro's bike? .... he barely edged out his compatriot on a works RCV. How about Germany?...again, in your mind's eye he is riding Alvaro's bike and utilizing his crew against Cal who finished nearly a second off, gaining on him in the latter stages no less. You are going to convince me that Marc's specialness would have resulted in the exact same performance on the GoFun Honda as he did on the works Repsol RCV? Because thats what he would have needed to do. Marc is special, but are u convinced he would have performed the same on the works RCV that barely edged out Cal (while Lorenzo was injured) on the GoFun Honda? Sorry, I can't make that leap. As I said before, only Laguna do I give him a shot at wining on the GoFun Honda in its current trim. But with the caveat Pedro and Lorenzo were injured. And even then the not so special Bradl on the supposed works factory Honda led the race for quite a bit. Alvaro's bike did well at Laguna, but enough to have performed exactly as Marc did on the Repsol Honda?
2 (c).2. Now, I started this part of my post by saying "never underestimate the power of tge mind, belief and reenforcement". Here is my point, its easy to discount Alvaro's riding ability (and I have done so more than most) but take a guy with Alvaro's ability (that is, world class, is he not) and give him a badged works HRC with the compliment of their standard support of engineers etc., and tell the guy: "Hey! you are our man!" and I tell you, there is no telling what may result. Again, you don't need to convince me that Marc would ride the GoFun Honda better than Alvaro, the kid is clearly more talented, BUT he aint infalliable, so while we're speculating and all; He aint going to perform exactly the same on the GoFun as he has on the Repsol works bike! And, being on a truly satellite bike with its less respective compliment of support means the message he would have been getting is, you are the 'future'. Likely not getting the factory type advice and coaching that hes received. Brotha, you adamantly refuse the notion that anybody would be coaching the kid, as you refused the notion that cooler heads may have imparted some much needed guidance to the lad (which appears he didnt get in the lower category) in the form of advising him to be prudent about racing his teammate and racing in general, where you dismiss it as absurd. Why, I honestly fail to understand. The consequences of not heading such reasonable advice had consequences in Moto2, now with even more reason it would be reasonable to imagine somebody pulling him aside after a near miss and say, hey, be smart (and actually, there is evidence this very scenario took place as he has ridden more patiently, stocking his prey like a shark and making his move stick). And don't go saying this implies "team orders"; (as you have), because this is far from it. I ask, why it would not be reasonable to accept somebody tolding him a rather obvious needed advice, again is beyond me. Its simply normal to imagine somebody telling him, hey, remember when you ...... yourself out of a title in Moto2 and not only that, but almost ...... yourself out of eyesight? Well, ride smart, this is the big leagues son. Its reasonable to think that coaches are still coaching the rookie, no matter how talented.
3. Dorna vs HRC. You make the point that HRC removed the rookie rule. Does HRC have the power to do that independently? NO. Therefore, Dorna was involved. I contend this is evidence of Spanish favoritism. Mutual as the benefit was in this case, that HRC demanded it still involves Dorna's machinates my friend.
4. BSR. 'Before Spanish Rule' (thanks L8'). Do you remember when most people had to pay to have a checking account? Well, at least in the US we used to have to pay to have one. Then one day, all these commercials began to surface, "free checking". Turns out, somebody later made a documentary on how the banking industry figured out that they could leech more money off their customers by offering and signing up people to "free checking" but then gouging them on hidden fees and inflated ISF check fees, etc. It was a boom for banks. In this documentary, they actually interview the guy who came up with the idea and pitched it to all his banker buddies. That is these guys sit around figuring out how they can make more money. They became more sophisticated! MotoGP has become more sophisticated. Sure the satellite badged bikes use to beat the factory badged bikes, but not since 2006 has this happened. That my friend is 3 formulas ago! Ancient history in a "simpler" time. Thats when we learned Satellite Barros beating a factory Marlboro Ducati was no longer to be tolerated. And Roberts Jr. revealed that Honda would impose rev ceilings for their non-factory badged entries. Again, Marc would have ridden the hell out of a GoFun Honda, ok, but that still is a stretch for Honda to allow its factory bike to be beat, even by a kid that they like, as politics is politics! (...., not to mention less support, inferior kit, and messaging). You said it better than me regarding HRC politics: "I think it far more significant and indeed sinister/insidious, the substantial influence that HRC exert on both the championship and the MSMA and the possible future ramifications of this." Its not coincidence (in my mind) that satellite badged bikes no longer win races! Again...no matter how much better Marc would have ridden the GoFun RCV, its unlikely it would have won races. How this would affect the narrative of debate toward the lad would have been similar to the debate surrounding Crutchlow. Why? Because only you and a few others would have detected Marc's ability ABSENT any wins. Again, like Crutchlow, who has been on great form given his satellite bike, the majority of spectators would have been debating just how good the kid is, and just how close the satellite bike is to factory trim. Unless you are prepared to rationalize which GP he would have won from the three he has on the GoFun limey, then again, the debate would have been very similar surrounding Crutchlow today.