2025 Silly Season

michaelm said:

Even before that broken leg imo he was never the same after that terrifying crash on the hairpin when he nearly collected Valentino. He looked quite promising previously, 3 wins on a satellite Yamaha as I recall.

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He nearly collected Valentino in '20, in the shortened Covid season. He won his first GP two rounds later, and as you wrote, three in total that season.

That crash, and two more DNFs contributed to his season of missed opportunity. Although, to be fair to Mir, he had three DNFs as well.

Sennas_Caress said:

He is, and I don't think there is much possibility of him not continuing, unless he was given a surprisingly good offer from WSBK.

I do though have the sense that he is lining up the Repsol seat, and if Mir does go to Aprilia to reunite with Brivio, and Zarco not being promoted, that could affect his plan in MotoGP already this year. Don't see Honda needing to have Zarco in the Repsol seat come 2026, and if they do progress, which I see as more likely than not, Honda will again have the pull power of previous years, and will need three seats, one being the LCR seat coveted by the Frenchman at the moment.

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Zarco turned down the factory Honda seat as they would only give him a 1 year contract. Will be interesting to see if Zarco gets moved for 2025

Sennas_Caress said:

There will be so much movement after Ducati Corse will publicly announce their line up, it will feel like a sprint.

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That's my prediction too!

Sennas_Caress said:

He nearly collected Valentino in '20, in the shortened Covid season. He won his first GP two rounds later, and as you wrote, three in total that season.

That crash, and two more DNFs contributed to his season of missed opportunity. Although, to be fair to Mir, he had three DNFs as well.

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So perhaps more a victim of the decline of Yamaha. Still did look rather good at one time, and the timing of the broken leg was inopportune.

michaelm said:

So perhaps more a victim of the decline of Yamaha. Still did look rather good at one time, and the timing of the broken leg was inopportune.

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Any sports, at this elite level, is very much about the mental side.
I remember Valentino quipped at a presser that Morbidelli lives in an alternate world, not even knowing where the next race will be.

Morbidelli was slow to get up to speed in Moto2, before winning the title clearly ahead of Lüthi.
He was also slow to get up to speed in MotoGP, and when he did get up to speed, he had that nasty injury.

He had a podium a few rounds before his injury, and none since. Not even close on the Ducati.

Don't think his head is in it to be honest. His clashes with riders, several punshments for infringements during practice sessions, just adds to the negative visuals.
What sets Pecco apart from the rest of the academy is his mental game. Its also what Bezzecchi is lacking at the moment, and Diggia don't.

If VR46 is to take that next step, they'll hire some good mental trainers for the guys coming up through their ranks.

michaelm said:

On the other hand he won 3 races on a GP22, Digiannantonio won a race on a GP22 and AM also looked a lot better on a GP22, may have won a sprint iirc, and the GP23 riders mostly found the bike difficult early season, particularly Bastianini. From the MM fan point of view this makes MM being up the front after a few rounds more impressive, and makes you wonder how he would fare on the final fully developed version of the GP23.

Bezzecchi showed he still has pace last round after perhaps adapting to the GP23 somewhat, and I still consider him to be a fast rider, certainly ahead of AM, Morbidelli and Digiannantonio. The end of last season could easily end up being the high water mark of his career though, and I continue to wonder what persuaded him to stay with VR46, which I would have thought as I said earlier in the thread would need to have been either a GP25 next year with an increase in the status of the VR46 team, or strong prospects with Yamaha. The VR46 camp may well have expected him to outride MM on the same bike, we certainly had visitors who considered that likely. I am sure Valentino will stick with him however. He has recently expressed doubts about his decision in another article on crash. Perhaps oddly MM may have damaged his brother’s career, who may be dependent on MM staying with Gresini,

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Many fair points. But Martin and Bagnaia did not struggle significantly on the GP23. Alex M got a pole and a podium (sprint) in his second race on the bike that was completely new to him.

I'm not doubting Bezzechi is 'fast' and yes, he is still a better prospect than AM, FM and FD. But my point was made perfectly on the-race latest podcast, where they said that last yr they'd tip him as a world champion in waiting and one of the elites. But this season has changed their opinion somewhat, and placed him in the same bracket as Bastiannini. Fast, but not winning a world title anytime soon and not in the same elite bracket as the likes of Bagnaia, Martin and Marquez.

I think he and VR46 mosrt definitely expected him to outride MM on the same bike. Bezzechi woefully underestimated MM and Rossi just lets his hate cloud his judgement, because he knows how good Marc is.

mikesbytes said:

Yes we have seen with Zarco last year that if a rider is leaving Ducati they don't get updates as a way of minimising technology transfer

Yeh Morbidelli hasn't managed to catchup from missing preseason testing, unless injury is still playing a part in his performance he doesn't have long to get a podium to prove worthy of staying. I'm agree that his time is likely done

VR46 would need to decide on who stays and who goes, would it be based entirely on rider performance?

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Diggia was basically their only option to fill Marini's seat, they even got turned down by Moto2 riders. So there is no way he stays if Morbidelli becomes available.

Sennas_Caress said:

Don't think his head is in it to be honest. His clashes with riders, several punshments for infringements during practice sessions, just adds to the negative visuals.
What sets Pecco apart from the rest of the academy is his mental game. Its also what Bezzecchi is lacking at the moment, and Diggia don't.

If VR46 is to take that next step, they'll hire some good mental trainers for the guys coming up through their ranks.

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I like the guy, and think in some ways he has been dealt a bad hand. But, he's not delivering. Hasn't for a long time and is just taking up a prime seat.

A perfect example of riders taking up decent seats is currently present at GasGas. My list for last yr of riders who were over their prime, no longer hungry and should make room for others were:

Aleix Espargaro
Jack Miller
Franco Morbidelli
Pol Espargaro


Of those, 1 was replaced with a rookie, who is lighting up the world of MotoGP. Point made. Respectfully, what would Pol Espargaro be doing on that GasGas?

#22 said:

Many fair points. But Martin and Bagnaia did not struggle significantly on the GP23. Alex M got a pole and a podium (sprint) in his second race on the bike that was completely new to him.

I'm not doubting Bezzechi is 'fast' and yes, he is still a better prospect than AM, FM and FD. But my point was made perfectly on the-race latest podcast, where they said that last yr they'd tip him as a world champion in waiting and one of the elites. But this season has changed their opinion somewhat, and placed him in the same bracket as Bastiannini. Fast, but not winning a world title anytime soon and not in the same elite bracket as the likes of Bagnaia, Martin and Marquez.

I think he and VR46 mosrt definitely expected him to outride MM on the same bike. Bezzechi woefully underestimated MM and Rossi just lets his hate cloud his judgement, because he knows how good Marc is.



Diggia was basically their only option to fill Marini's seat, they even got turned down by Moto2 riders. So there is no way he stays if Morbidelli becomes available.



I like the guy, and think in some ways he has been dealt a bad hand. But, he's not delivering. Hasn't for a long time and is just taking up a prime seat.

A perfect example of riders taking up decent seats is currently present at GasGas. My list for last yr of riders who were over their prime, no longer hungry and should make room for others were:

Aleix Espargaro
Jack Miller
Franco Morbidelli
Pol Espargaro


Of those, 1 was replaced with a rookie, who is lighting up the world of MotoGP. Point made. Respectfully, what would Pol Espargaro be doing on that GasGas?

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Bezzecchi had a really bad outing in Qatar. After that, he has been fast. Look at his Q2 times. Alex Marquez is very rarely fast.
The conventional visdom is that you can teach a fast rider racecraft, yet you can't teach a smart rider how to be quicker.
I'm unconvinced that Bezzecchi has the mental fortitude to become a World Champion contender, if there are more brands than the Ducati that is competitive.
He has the speed though. Stranger tings have happend than a fast lad becoming a smarter racer.

At the moment Diggia is the best of the rest. I don't think VR46 can let him go. They have their sponsors to consider. How will they react if they change Diggia not with a fast prospect, but a slow elderly rider?

Aleix Espargaro deserves to ride the Aprilia for as long as he pleases. Its him, and him alone, that have stuck by them, through thick and thin.
Miller is a very good teamplayer, and just what KTM needed. They couldn't rely on the inbred alone. They needed some ideas from the outside, and apart from Miller, you have Zarco (that went well...) Viñales (not going to happen, as he was saved by Aleix), Rins (too broke) and Mir (too expensive) they could have turned to. Out of that lot, Miller was the best developer of bikes, maybe Viñales as well.

Some of the trouble for the MotoGP line up, is that there have been many riders coming through in the previous years. Look at the grid from 2020.
You have Smith and Savadori at Aprilia, Dovi and Petrux at Ducati, Rabat at Avintia, Clutchlow at LCR, Pol and Lecuona at KTM, Rossi at Yamaha.
The year befor you had Iannone, Abraham, Lorenzo, Kallio, Syahrin.

For the current lot of Moto2 talents, the squeeze to advance is very tight. I do think that teams will be lining up good prospects, as Ducati did with Aldeguer, if they spot them. Sergio Garcia, Joe Roberts, Ai Ogura, Alonso Lopez and Aron Canet, Celestino Vietti all in the mix. Can see a spot for everyone of them.

#22 said:

Many fair points. But Martin and Bagnaia did not struggle significantly on the GP23. Alex M got a pole and a podium (sprint) in his second race on the bike that was completely new to him.

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It is a very long season, but both did struggle very early in the season in the Sunday races at least and iirc Bagnaia complained about the bike, claiming it let go without any error of his. He did win 3 of the first 6 races, but also had 2 retirements and a 15th, while Martin had 2 retirements, a 4th and a 5th in the first 4 races. I did look it up to make sure my memory had failed me, but sure they dominated many more races for the remainder of the season season so it can hardly be argued the bike was a dud. It was improved over the season as well, which I imagine the GP24 will be as well, which is why I would like to see MM on the end of season version of the GP23. As I said the (very) early struggles of the title contenders last season and of the GP23 riders other than MM this season adds lustre to MM’s efforts imo.

I am warming to the sprints this year, but tended to regard them as new fangled frippery compared to the full length races I have followed for several decades last season which perhaps explains our differing recollections.

michaelm said:

It is a very long season, but both did struggle very early in the season in the Sunday races at least and iirc Bagnaia complained about the bike, claiming it let go without any error of his. He did win 3 of the first 6 races, but also had 2 retirements and a 15th,

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To be fair, that's not all the bike. That's Bagnaia being Bagnaia "I crashed but it wasn't my fault"

michaelm said:

while Martin had 2 retirements, a 4th and a 5th in the first 4 races. I did look it up to make sure my memory had failed me, but sure they dominated many more races for the remainder of the season season so it can hardly be argued the bike was a dud.

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I'm not disagreeing with your theory. The changes of the GP23 over the 22 and the fact is destabilised a number of riders is completely accurate. My point is more that it is showing just how talented Marquez is that he has adapted to his early season spec GP23 better than Bezzechi, who has ridden Ducati's his entire career. Which you state in your post too.

michaelm said:

It was improved over the season as well, which I imagine the GP24 will be as well, which is why I would like to see MM on the end of season version of the GP23.

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I agree. Does anyone know what spec GP23 Bezzechi is on?

#22 said:

I agree. Does anyone know what spec GP23 Bezzechi is on?

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I believe they are all on the Qatar 2023 spec GP23's. I read somewhere that there was one upgrade given which was the upper exhaust, they swapped it for a GP24 upper exhaust pipe. But to my knowledge no other parts have been added yet.

JPSLotus said:

I believe they are all on the Qatar 2023 spec GP23's. I read somewhere that there was one upgrade given which was the upper exhaust, they swapped it for a GP24 upper exhaust pipe. But to my knowledge no other parts have been added yet.

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So I'll put my ignorance on display again but if it is known the updates made the GP23 a better package, why don't the current GP23 riders get the updates from the start? Seems to me the quicker they get acclimated to the bike they will ultimately be riding, the better and more competitive they'll be.....or is that the problem?

PRS717 said:

So I'll put my ignorance on display again but if it is known the updates made the GP23 a better package, why don't the current GP23 riders get the updates from the start? Seems to me the quicker they get acclimated to the bike they will ultimately be riding, the better and more competitive they'll be.....or is that the problem?

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On the aero side of things the GP23 riders have the aero package from the beginning of the 23 season ie they didn't get the 2023 midseason aero update that Bagnaia, Bastainini and Martin got last year. Why I don't know

JPSLotus said:

I believe they are all on the Qatar 2023 spec GP23's. I read somewhere that there was one upgrade given which was the upper exhaust, they swapped it for a GP24 upper exhaust pipe. But to my knowledge no other parts have been added yet.

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I would like to see an official statement that says what GP23 they're on, not something on Crash lol. I seem to remember they got the bike has it was at the end of the season, all updated. Qatar was the penultimate race in 23

Paul55 said:

I would like to see an official statement that says what GP23 they're on, not something on Crash lol. I seem to remember they got the bike has it was at the end of the season, all updated. Qatar was the penultimate race in 23

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I at least may have been under a misapprehension, Qatar was indeed late season last year. My understanding was as above that the satellite teams didn’t get the GP23 aero upgrades, as Zarco didn’t in the 2023 season after he signed for another team.

I myself was mainly basing speculation on the widely reported quotes from Pirro the test rider ifrom sources other than on Crash that he didn’t think MM should get upgrades. The one upgrade the GP23s have reportedly been given is a different engine pipe, but that is apparently from the GP24, again as posted previously.

There has been widespread comment about the GP23 being more fractious in general than the GP22 was though.

If they are looking for a rider who could deliver the world championship perhaps history can indicate whether to get a new rider from a lessor grade or to take an existing rider;
2001 Valentino Rossi 2nd year
2006 Nicky Hayden 4th year
2007 Casey Stoner 2nd year
2010 Jorge Lorenzo 3rd year
2013 Marc Marquez 1st year
2020 Joan Mir 2nd year
2021 Fabio Quartararo 3rd year
2022 Francesco Bagnaia 4th year
While the data is distorted by what teams they were in, it does show there is a limit to how many years a rider should be considered, if a rider has been in MotoGP for 5+ years and not been a serious contender then they are better off trying a new rider and conversely the rider needs to be retained for a minimum of 2 years to gauge their potential

mikesbytes said:

If they are looking for a rider who could deliver the world championship perhaps history can indicate whether to get a new rider from a lessor grade or to take an existing rider;
2001 Valentino Rossi 2nd year
2006 Nicky Hayden 4th year
2007 Casey Stoner 2nd year
2010 Jorge Lorenzo 3rd year
2013 Marc Marquez 1st year
2020 Joan Mir 2nd year
2021 Fabio Quartararo 3rd year
2022 Francesco Bagnaia 4th year
While the data is distorted by what teams they were in, it does show there is a limit to how many years a rider should be considered, if a rider has been in MotoGP for 5+ years and not been a serious contender then they are better off trying a new rider and conversely the rider needs to be retained for a minimum of 2 years to gauge their potential

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That makes perfect sense

Usually, if you are talented, you'll be in the top tier category in your early to mid twenties. Five years on and you are most likely on the cusp of your thirties.

It feels awful to write it, still, you are not going to win a world championship in your thirties if you haven't been competitive up til that point in time...

The harshness and swiftness of a MotoGP career... Like him or not, Valentino was a special rider.

Double

Sennas_Caress said:

That makes perfect sense

Usually, if you are talented, you'll be in the top tier category in your early to mid twenties. Five years on and you are most likely on the cusp of your thirties.

It feels awful to write it, still, you are not going to win a world championship in your thirties if you haven't been competitive up til that point in time...

The harshness and swiftness of a MotoGP career... Like him or not, Valentino was a special rider.

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Absolutely, and an 8th title at age 36 as he looked like managing most of the season would really have been a crowning achievement, to match Ago’s 8th for Yamaha in his mid 30s. He needed to actually win it on the track imo though. Mick Doohan’s 5th was at age 33 I believe as well.

MM is actually up against the biggest gap between titles barrier, even this year would be 5 years, with Casey Stoner’s second after an interval of 4 years about the biggest gap afaik.

Being in the hunt for another title so quickly after jumping bikes shows how good of a rider Marquez is. He now is more or less guaranteed three shots at glory.
This season, and the next two, given he will remain on a Ducati, hence his willingness to be satisfied with merely having the latest spec bike. A ringing endorsement to Franky Carchedi btw.

No matter who lands on what seat, all is set for a thrilling 25 & 26, with multiple riders being given a shot at the top spot. Very good for the sport.

mikesbytes said:

If they are looking for a rider who could deliver the world championship perhaps history can indicate whether to get a new rider from a lessor grade or to take an existing rider;
2001 Valentino Rossi 2nd year
2006 Nicky Hayden 4th year
2007 Casey Stoner 2nd year
2010 Jorge Lorenzo 3rd year
2013 Marc Marquez 1st year
2020 Joan Mir 2nd year
2021 Fabio Quartararo 3rd year
2022 Francesco Bagnaia 4th year
While the data is distorted by what teams they were in, it does show there is a limit to how many years a rider should be considered, if a rider has been in MotoGP for 5+ years and not been a serious contender then they are better off trying a new rider and conversely the rider needs to be retained for a minimum of 2 years to gauge their potential

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I have long said this. Any rider not fighting for the title after their 3rd season never will imo.

Harsh some may say, but your post supports my statement.

#22 said:

I have long said this. Any rider not fighting for the title after their 3rd season never will imo.

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Brad Binder?