I agree with Mdub, Rossi A. in my opinion still has the advantage this year and is the smartest savvy racer of the 3 contenders for the wins. I dont think his age, motivation, or anything else is a disadvantage, to the contrary, it IS his advantage, along with my particular cynical view of the series.
A few other more substantial thoughts:
C. Neither rider in the Yamaha garage has experienced a DNF in my estimation Lorenzo is at higher risk for one. Noticed his initial race pace is blistering to stay ahead of Marquez. While Rossi hangs around the back to see what will develop.
D. When the tires work for Rossi's Lorenzo is off the podium. When the tires work for Lorenzo Rossi is on the podium.
E.Marquez riding his bike slightly more prudently (while earlier this season was MISTAKEN for an RCV deficiency) is resulting in wins and/or smaller increments of points available for either Lorenzo or Rossi. Lorenzo has 5 wins, 4 in a row to Rossi's 2. Yet the championship is virtually tie.
F. Rossi's age and experience drive him to ride for points much more so than the younger rivals.
Attendee Rossi's gamble on tires did not pay off. But that was more an act of God than anything else because it stayed cooler. But note that both Lorenzo and Rossi had different tires. Rossy stayed on the podium despite the cooler conditions. Had it been hot like the previous two days I believe Rossi would have been battling for the win along with Marquez.
Silverstone is a toss up most likely it will be cool. If previous years is any indication it will be damn near arctic conditions. But also comes Aragon. A hot arid climate is usually in order. Where like Argentina the hotter conditions favor Rossi tires.
G. Marquez factor: not only will his form decrease the increments of points available for either of the Yamaha riders but also consider, Who do you think Marquez prefers to bully, Lorenzo or Rossi?. He's tried twice against VR resulting in crashed out, he tried to torpedo Lorenzo once and crossed out. But I suspect he is more willing to bully Lorenzo.
Motegi will be a Marcos win. Phillip Island toss up slight advantage Rossi.. Malaysia tossup. The only place I really see Lorenzo dominating might be Valencia.
This championship may come down to the first DNF between the two Yamaha riders and I think Lorenzo is more at risk for that then Rossi.
I do not underestimate the power of dorna. Lest we forget the fact he is riding a Yamaha today is exclusively because of dornas influence on the series field of play.
Regarding pressure. Of all the riders I think Rossi is the least affected by pressure. Between the three contenders Lorenzo is the most adverse to it. Marquez is simply oblivious to pressure... As are most autistic savants.
This is Rossi's championship to lose.
I have said earlier in the season that I'd like to see him win because it would be a great accomplishment for him at this stage in his life and it would be exciting from a purely historical perspective, but at this point I just don't see it happening. Lorenzo really seems to have the bike dialed in and has regained his Mojo. With Rossi continuing to be poor at qualifying and worse at making good starts, with the points now equal, his margin for error is razor thin.
A. Kindly elucidate. Why do you believe Rossi has the advantage?
B. I think his motivation is good thus far. What I said is that if he doesn't win the championship in 2015 - he won't be as motivated next season simply because the odds against it (for many obvious reasons) will be much increased.
C. Why would Lorenzo be more likely to suffer a DNF??? Do you know something that we all don't? I mean yes - he was riding harder at Brno - but how many engine failures have Yamaha suffered over the course of the last two seasons? Rossi's laptimes were actually pretty good once he got clear of the rubberneckers. I don't think Lorenzo is really working the engine that much harder; he's just better at qualifying and makes starts that allow him to pull away.
D. And what way is this pointing to any advantage for Rossi. This seems to point to a random factor unless one believes that the tire quality will be
drastically skewed in Rossi's favor during the remaining races for this season. There's always a lot of talk about Dorna's overarching influence with the tire manufacturers, and their ability to slant the design in Rossi's favor and yet, Rossi has repeatedly had his ... handed to him by Lorenzo, Stoner and Marquez on the Bridgestones which empirically illustrates that either said influence doesn't exist or isn't very effective given that Rossi hasn't won a championship in quite some years.
E. Not really salient. If MM wins all the rest of the races this year the impact will be more negative for Rossi or Lorenzo; it will be the same for both riders.
F. Rossi's ability to improve is finite. Lorenzo's is less so. MM's is in all likliehood only going to improve over the next 5 or so years - which will cancel out any of Rossi's last-gasp chances to win another championship. He'll be on the podium again, but baring Lorenzo and MM suffering DNFs or injury, it's just not logical to believe that Rossi will make a comeback for another championship in future seasons. It's now or never.
G. Lorenzo's no ...... He may not like being out-ridden by MM - but I don't in any way believe he's ever going to be intimidated by MM. Now that he's got the bike sorted out, MM is on form - as he has been recently - and he doesn't seem inclined to engage - but waits till the last few laps and then zips by effortlessly.
Gotta say I really loved watching Lorenzo just walk away from MM at Brno. Very impressive. Overall I'd say that Lorenzo has been much more consistent than Rossi, which is why I think he's the man to put your money on for the championship this year.
