Yes, they would like pretty silly as has been said if he won the title on a GP23 then went to KTM. Him winning a title for Gresini next year wouldn’t be ideal for them either though, as we have been discussing the big money sponsors of the factory team might well start asking what they are getting for their money. If he won on a KTM it could be attributed to him rather than the bike.
Given Gigi’s apparent attitude I think we can be fairly sure he is outriding the GP23. And even attributing the COTA dnf to rider error he could easily have another 20 odd points from the sprint race crash due to water under the track and the 4th he was going to get at Portimao if Bagnaia hadn’t taken him out. He recently hasn’t looked to be in rider error mode overly, if he could stay in front of Aleix last race on worn soft tyres he can probably ride around most problems as was his previous wont and I can see him riding relentlessly while he has done chance at the title.
Being somewhat cut throat and admittedly bias. If I was Ducati and MM was also factory team or I will go elsewhere, I would be offering the contract to Marquez, but offer Martin a full factory supported contract with a decent pay bump that he can take or leave.
My reasoning (without bringing sponsorship issues) is that Marquez is going to be a threat on the KTM or the Aprilia. If he is a threat on the KTM then you can bet your ass that he will bring Acosta a long with him and they will form a super team, that by 2027 (MM will be 34 and Pedro in his prime) could lead to a dry period for Ducati. We don't know if Martin will be the same threat as Marquez albeit for longer due to his age. Though Martin himself at 26 isn't exactly young either.
For the future, Ducati have Aldeguer who may or may not come on to be world championship material but if he doesn't reach the heights they want him to they could throw a shitload of money at Acosta, who may or may not be a world champion at that stage.
The jury is still out on Martin when the real pressure is on. We know how MM responds to it and we know how Pecco responds to it. But last year, when the pressure for the championship was really on, he faltered big time.
I do think Ducati hold all the cards, and don't need to be in a rush to make their decision. Martin may want respect and status but above all else he wants to win. Ducati give him his best chance for that. If I was them, I wouldn't be making a decision until around Austria. That gives them a much clearer picture of what both MM and JM are looking like and if in the meantime they lose Martin to another manufacturer, they still have Pecco, MM, Bastia to take on him and whoever he signs for.
I'm just not convinced Ducati, if they can get MM on the factory team, despite all the personal sponsor stuff should make the move until things are clearer. It's not just about winning the championship either, if Pecco wins again, strong possibility and MM finishes second with JM 3rd, they would have egg on their face again.
Having said all of that though, if there is a realistic option to give MM everything he wants in a satellite team, while keeping the factory sponsors happy meaning I can keep Martin as well, then that is the win-win option. Personally I would lock up MM first, even if that option is on a satellite bike. That way it can be spun that we signed MM first because he was the priority (keeps MM happy and feeling valued), we signed MM first to the satellite because we always wanted JM on the factory team but had to negotiate with our factory sponsors who were pushing for MM, or something along those lines.