2021 Red Bull Grand Prix of the Americas - COTA

MdubSTYLIE said:

I already said this but I think Marc will win the title next year if big if he can keep the bike rubber side down. Marc's worst races are better than Fabio and Pecco's. When Marc has a bad race he still takes top 5. Fabio and pecco are closer to 10th on a bad day. So if Marc can be smart the title is his. As for Pecco he'd most likely be leading points had he not been injured. So I say its between Marc and Pecco next year. Fabio will need to step it up next season.

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Disagree. Marquez does have an impressive aggregate of wins, but if you compare their records over the course of the same number of season you notice that Marquez has crashed out of a good number of races, especially in his first three seasons. Compare that to Fabio’s first three seasons in the premiere class. In Rossi like fashion, Fabio just about never crashes during a race. I can’t remember the last time he did. Over the course of his career in racing, Fabio’s less flashy riding style and his consistency will gain him many more wins and with fewer injuries, he has increased potential for longevity in the sport.

Little Walter said:

Disagree. Marquez does have an impressive aggregate of wins, but if you compare their records over the course of the same number of season you notice that Marquez has crashed out of a good number of races, especially in his first three seasons. Compare that to Fabio’s first three seasons in the premiere class. In Rossi like fashion, Fabio just about never crashes during a race. I can’t remember the last time he did. Over the course of his career in racing, Fabio’s less flashy riding style and his consistency will gain him many more wins and with fewer injuries, he has increased potential for longevity in the sport.

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I don't disagree. The key to my opinion of Marc winning the title relies heavily on him staying upright and not going for the win when he has to push to hard. He needs to ride smart and take 2nd or 3rd in these situations. Marcs worse races are a lot better than Fabs when the bike isn't suited to a certain track or conditions are optimal. The other thing is rain races. More of those is bad for fabio he is much more inconsistent than marc. I say Pecco is the dark horse here. He has found the way to manage the Ducati and in all conditions. Those two will put a lot of pressure on Fab next year and I am uncertain at Fabios ability to handle that and step it up if he needs. I know this season isn't over but I am already looking forward to this 3 way battle next year. Credit to Fabio for being the rider he is. He reminds me more of JLo than Rossi.

MdubSTYLIE said:

I don't disagree. The key to my opinion of Marc winning the title relies heavily on him staying upright and not going for the win when he has to push to hard. He needs to ride smart and take 2nd or 3rd in these situations. Marcs worse races are a lot better than Fabs when the bike isn't suited to a certain track or conditions are optimal. The other thing is rain races. More of those is bad for fabio he is much more inconsistent than marc. I say Pecco is the dark horse here. He has found the way to manage the Ducati and in all conditions. Those two will put a lot of pressure on Fab next year and I am uncertain at Fabios ability to handle that and step it up if he needs. I know this season isn't over but I am already looking forward to this 3 way battle next year. Credit to Fabio for being the rider he is. He reminds me more of JLo than Rossi.

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MM already won a title riding with a bad shoulder in the fashion you describe. If he is still severely limited in negotiating right hand corners next year it will be difficult to beat the likes of Fabio and Pecco, but even at the level he was that previous title winning year he did exactly what you say, often finishing on the podium and seldom worse than 4th if someone else was faster on the day. If the Ducati has a bike advantage both MM and FQ might be in trouble from Bagnaia.

michaelm said:

MM already won a title riding with a bad shoulder in the fashion you describe. If he is still severely limited in negotiating right hand corners next year it will be difficult to beat the likes of Fabio and Pecco, but even at the level he was that previous title winning year he did exactly what you say, often finishing on the podium and seldom worse than 4th of someone else was faster on the day. If the Ducati has a bike advantage both MM and FQ might be in trouble from Bagnaia.

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Exactly right. I feel like Marc is capable of adapting to what is necessary to win the championship. Like you said he has done this in the past. Early this year he was riding over the limit. Even stating he wasn't in the championship so he was riding with the win it or bin it mentality He needs to be smart next year and he will have a good chance at the title especially if he and the bike are a little stronger. But also as you said if the duc is this strong next year Pecco will be very hard to beat. Marc needs to not panic and ride smart all year and I think the title will be his.

The 2022 RC213V was less than .05 second slower than the fastest lap time at the Misano test with Pol. All of the top brass from HRC was there. Even Santi Hernandez was there on the last day when Pol was testing the 2022 bike. If HRC rolls out a bike like the RC211V back in 01 the rest of the field is ....... Marc will only be too happy to deliver the agony of defeat to the field.





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MdubSTYLIE said:

I don't disagree. The key to my opinion of Marc winning the title relies heavily on him staying upright and not going for the win when he has to push to hard. He needs to ride smart and take 2nd or 3rd in these situations. Marcs worse races are a lot better than Fabs when the bike isn't suited to a certain track or conditions are optimal. The other thing is rain races. More of those is bad for fabio he is much more inconsistent than marc. I say Pecco is the dark horse here. He has found the way to manage the Ducati and in all conditions. Those two will put a lot of pressure on Fab next year and I am uncertain at Fabios ability to handle that and step it up if he needs. I know this season isn't over but I am already looking forward to this 3 way battle next year. Credit to Fabio for being the rider he is. He reminds me more of JLo than Rossi.

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I totally agree that the title fight will be a three way battle next year. Marc may be coming to terms with not crashing, we’ll see. I thought he had before and then……. Pecco will get better and better with more seat time post injury. I think Fabio will also continue to get better, especially if Marc is around. I believe Fabio is really motivated and learning. As mentioned, he doesn’t crash a lot and seems to always bring the A game on race day. He does have problems in the rain but I am hoping he can come to terms with this aspect. He reminds me so much of Lorenzo in his style, so smooth.

We might get surprised by some of the others….

Yep, the competition has intensified.
Pecco and Fabio are both very fast.
Fabio in the past has had weak results on occasion and finished well down the order.
Agree Marc doesn't do this, if he stays on, even at a track he finds more difficult on the Honda.
Has Fab had many weak results this year though?
I don't recall them.

warthog1 said:

Yep, the competition has intensified.
Pecco and Fabio are both very fast.
Fabio in the past has had weak results on occasion and finished well down the order.
Agree Marc doesn't do this, if he stays on, even at a track he finds more difficult on the Honda.
Has Fab had many weak results this year though?
I don't recall them.

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He has a had a few early, arm pump and zippergate. Weather will be his biggest friend or enemy next season.

Why not ..............here goes.


Marquez is to me still the benchmark of the field. He is the most talented in terms of his capability to not just ride, but ride absolutely anything until it is at the limit, and all to often over the limit. To me, he is the man most likely to win the title or to lose it through his own inability to stay rubber side down - win or bin mentality - and that is what makes him so unique. The serious question is, will the injury and aging change his mentality to an accumulator rather than a winner (we have seen him accumulate but you just know he really wants to win) ............ time will tell.

To Dubs point on Fabio, I agree that he is more Lorenzo than Rossi, but I also feel he is more Lawson than Lorenzo. Sure he is a little flashier at times but to me, Quartararo seems to always fly under the radar. He is there or thereabouts and knows how to maximise his points haul. Less likely to bin it and happy to finish 2nd or 3rd. He is smart as the year drags on as he knows who he is racing for the title so concentrates there and does not mind being 4th if the 3 above him are not his championship challengers.

Pecco is still new to this. Yes he is good and will only get better but he has been a tad inconsistent earlier with consistency as the year has gone on. is this maturity, familiarity or are some of these results due to the championship in as much as again, Quartararo knows what he needs to do and he continues to do it. Nope, for me Pecco is not yet at the Quartararo level and while the gap is small, small gaps are the hardest to close. Personally while I will likely be wrong, I see 2022 as a good further learning year for Pecco but see 2023 as the year for him to be World Champion as the experience and race management he will learn will be invaluable.

As an Aussie I so want to say Miller is a chance as I personally do not see his season as poor (2 wins is far from poor) but I said a few years back and will say again - he will not win a world title. He will win races but will need a hell of a lot to fall his way to win the title - I do not doubt the race ability I doubt the year long capability to be able to manage a year of challenges and control his emotion. To me, he is his own worst enemy.

There are and will be others into consideration as so much can happen. A swap of bikes, a change in the team around the rider, any number of variables.

While many of us will differ on opinion I will also throw this there ............. I hope that no title is decided by the tyre lottery as we are seeing races impacted by it, so there is always the risk.

warthog1 said:

Yep, the competition has intensified.
Pecco and Fabio are both very fast.
Fabio in the past has had weak results on occasion and finished well down the order.
Agree Marc doesn't do this, if he stays on, even at a track he finds more difficult on the Honda.
Has Fab had many weak results this year though?
I don't recall them.

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I feel like a broken record, but, I do believe Fabio’s crap results at some tracks last year, can be chalked up to the “improvements” that Yamaha made to his chassis. He has strongly implied this in interviews, and their have been journalists who have noted it.

Just watched the race.
Yeah it was shades of the old Marquez.
Absolutely dominant.
Very encouraging to see after what he has been through.
Yes an anti-clockwise favourite of his, but still.
Hopefully that shoulder strengthens further as does the '22 machine.

He has more competition now.
We will see.
Looking forward to more motoGP and next year [emoji41]

I am yet to be convinced that MM will be back to form. He will have his races but will battle/struggle for championship. I definitely do not see Doohan in him.

Mick D said:

I am yet to be convinced that MM will be back to form. He will have his races but will battle/struggle for championship. I definitely do not see Doohan in him.

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I think it's too early to tell. Whenever he rides at circuits that take the pressure off his right shoulder over a weekend, he is right there at the front and as we saw last weekend, he dominated.

He may need an extended period of recovery for his shoulder which is so involved with his riding. I wouldn't be surprised that with the continued efforts this season and in the off-season period, he will continue to improve. Only time will tell if he will regain adequate fitness/strength to ride as he wants.

He just can't manage another major injury that takes him out of racing for several weekends. He may well consider calling it quits then.

Mick D said:

I am yet to be convinced that MM will be back to form. He will have his races but will battle/struggle for championship. I definitely do not see Doohan in him.

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Dunno.
I see him doing stuff Doohan could not on the bike though.
I certainly hope his body comes good. I want to see more.

The thing is, he himself has said that he rides Marquez style. He has demonstrated that he seems incapable of changing that style to a more conservative one despite the many crashes and injuries.

I’m afraid the trend is downwards, with the inexorable Second Law Of Thermodynamics at work.

Bern1 said:

The thing is, he himself has said that he rides Marquez style. He has demonstrated that he seems incapable of changing that style to a more conservative one despite the many crashes and injuries.

I’m afraid the trend is downwards, with the inexorable Second Law Of Thermodynamics at work.

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He already has won a title riding that style with a dud shoulder. If he is not riding for a title as is the case this year and was the case when he had already clinched the title in previous years then he rides in a less conservative style and does indeed seek to dominate every lap of every race as is his natural inclination, which is certainly ill advised imo given the threat injuries have posed and continue to pose to his career, but is not the same as saying he won't ride in a more conservative style if/when in contention for the title next year.

I agree with misfit, it all depends on whether his shoulder can be improved in the offseason. Sure if he can only ride left hand turn circuits optimally for the rest of his career then that may well be too severe an impediment to win a title against the likes of FQ and Bagnaia. By all appearances the career threatening complicated humeral fracture he sustained last year and which limited his off season training is no longer career threatening though. I agree and have said for years that shoulder injuries would limit his career generally/in the longterm.

I get it but the last title with a bum shoulder as I recall didn’t have the relatively large pool of new extremely good talent that he now has to contend with.

As we all say, we’ll see. It will definitely be interesting to watch.

Damn, I’ll have to subscribe to MotoGP for another year!

Mick D said:

I am yet to be convinced that MM will be back to form. He will have his races but will battle/struggle for championship. I definitely do not see Doohan in him.

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Definitely agree on this aspect (channeling my inner Doohan tragic), but then I suspect very very few racers could go through what MD did and still maintain the drive to go on and be better. MD was I genuinely believe a freak in that aspect, which is why I have laughed many times when people talk mental toughness.

I would say however that even a 90% Marquez is better than many in the field so getting back to the domination and decimation of years past but I do see more championships and plenty more race wins.

Marquez is not without mental toughness.
VR tried all sorts of mind games, used his fans to try and undermine him and pr games with the press.
Marquez withstood all of that and destroyed him on the track.
I rate his mental strength very highly.
The injury he suffered was also significant and complicated by the surgical infection he received.
The humerus is under huge pressure on the bike as is the shoulder.
It is very hard to compare riders from different eras as the bikes and tyres have evolved significantly.
The bikes are however now heavier and more powerful.
Nobody, but nobody has been able to do what Marquez can do with the front end of a motorcycle.
I was a huge fan of Doohan's also, but could he do that in his prime were the bike and tyres capable?
Hard to say, as good a chance as anyone from the past, but Marquez is still the only person who has.

warthog1 said:

Marquez is not without mental toughness.
VR tried all sorts of mind games, used his fans to try and undermine him and pr games with the press.
Marquez withstood all of that and destroyed him on the track.
I rate his mental strength very highly.
The injury he suffered was also significant and complicated by the surgical infection he received.
The humerus is under huge pressure on the bike as is the shoulder.
It is very hard to compare riders from different eras as the bikes and tyres have evolved significantly.
The bikes are however now heavier and more powerful.
Nobody, but nobody has been able to do what Marquez can do with the front end of a motorcycle.
I was a huge fan of Doohan's also, but could he do that in his prime were the bike and tyres capable?
Hard to say, as good a chance as anyone from the past, but Marquez is still the only person who has.

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Absolutely Marquez has mental toughness and I would place him 2nd to MD of those that I can immediately recall - my laughing comment was aimed at commentary of sport that will say how 'tough' person x is because they competed with what is/was not a significant life changing injury (ie. footballers who finish the game after suffering a cramp, or who came into the game on painkillers due to a rib injury style).

The reason I will always say MD is the toughest I have seen in sporting terms (and will use direct comparison to Marquez) is that MD's primary leg injury was before he had any world titles where Marquez has 8 already. Marquez' championships remove the self pressure but he will want more, he will not stop (I genuinely believe that he will want to beat all of VR's numbers at least and set new marks).

The sheer will of MD to come back from that leg injury, barely able to walk and almost win the title, waste the next year still recovering and then come and do what he did and win 5 on the trot to me is unparrelled in any sport of which I am aware. The guy was f'ed up by doctors and yet still managed to do what he did and create his records and legacy.

Marquez has the records and legacy already, the rest is icing on the cake and if he goes on and wins another 5 or 7 titles it will just add to his record and show that mentally the accident did not impact him, MD had to start making the cake.

Written with total bias on my part