WSuperbike faster than PrototypeGP

Kropotkin

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For the UK only. In the rest of the world, sports bikes are almost an irrelevance. The US shifts large outright numbers, but tiny as a proportion of total sales.

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What BJ.C refuses to understand:


 


The US moves about 500,000 cruisers in a good market, and it moves about 250,000 in a crap market like we have today. That's about 50% of total US moto sales. Cruisers are the SUVs of the bike industry--high-margin ATM machines--that's why the Japanese started building air-cooled V-twins, though it was beneath them from an engineering and technical standpoint. HD has over $5B in revenues on roughly 250,000 global sales, which means that each bike generates $20,000 in revenue from retail price, merchandise, accessories, and licensing. Even Ducati have tried to mine cruiser gold with the new Diavel.


 


Beyond cruisers, the US sells dirbikes and dual sports on the order of 100,000 per year, down substantially from 150,000+ of just a few years ago. The US is the home of AMA Supercross/Motocross and dirtbikes are another major source of profits.


 


In addition to the high-margin US sales segments, Asia is the home of about 50M scooter sales. Yes, roughly 50M or 100x more than the total US market and 50x more than the best ever US moto market (2005 by sales volume).


 


That's how the sausage is made. RR bikes are funded by the sale of old metal and uncomplicated aluminum in the US market, and by unimaginably large quantities of scooter sales in developing Asian markets like India, China, Indo, etc. The Japanese don't have huge marketshare, but if they move 2M scooters at $50-$100 margins, that's a lot of scratch.


 


The other weird twist is the US RR segment. As you point out, the US moves volume though marketshare is almost nil. In the US, 600s outsell 1000s by a wide margin, and the AMA has twice contemplated using 600s as the premier SBK class. From 2004-2008, the US had a 600cc SBK class, though it was an undercard to the 1000cc SBK class.

povol

3387651354717122


Maybe Bridgepoint should let the Flaminni's take over GP instead of the other way around.

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You realize that Dorna have been trying to bring the WSBK format to GP for several seasons? The MSMA refuse. And I'm not talking about production-based machinery. I'm talking about horsepower limits and control tires (Dorna have already scored the control tire).


 


Despite having the best racing on the planet, WSBK can't even fund its teams b/c the MotoGP-lite formula is too expensive. For obvious reasons, Bridgepoint and Canadian Pension (whatever it was) have put Dorna in charge, not the Flamminis.


 


The manufacturers control the WSBK formula. The Flamminis only decide how many racing parts the bikes will get. The MotoGP-lite formula has not been a smashing success for WSBK finances or the RR industry as a whole (racing or street).

Kropotkin

3387601354711007


I love WSBK and want it to remain as it is, more or less. But what I want doesn't count. The fact is that sports bikes are becoming less and less popular. 

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True 'nuf.


I always thought that the Big Sports Bike = Real Bike mentality was a particularly Anglophone thing. Never examined that premise too closely, and it's probably to do with rego/insurance as much as anything else. And influence by horrid films like Stone. Motociclismo used to be an interesting read for what sells over in Europe. If I recall, pre-GFC, the only sportbike in the Top 10 was the CBR600. The rest (this did not include scooters) were FZ600 things.

mylexicon

3387951354746013


 


What BJ.C refuses to understand:


 


The US moves about 500,000 cruisers in a good market, and it moves about 250,000 in a crap market like we have today. That's about 50% of total US moto sales. Cruisers are the SUVs of the bike industry--high-margin ATM machines--that's why the Japanese started building air-cooled V-twins, though it was beneath them from an engineering and technical standpoint. HD has over $5B in revenues on roughly 250,000 global sales, which means that each bike generates $20,000 in revenue from retail price, merchandise, accessories, and licensing. Even Ducati have tried to mine cruiser gold with the new Diavel.


 


Beyond cruisers, the US sells dirbikes and dual sports on the order of 100,000 per year, down substantially from 150,000+ of just a few years ago. The US is the home of AMA Supercross/Motocross and dirtbikes are another major source of profits.


 


In addition to the high-margin US sales segments, Asia is the home of about 50M scooter sales. Yes, roughly 50M or 100x more than the total US market and 50x more than the best ever US moto market (2005 by sales volume).


 


That's how the sausage is made. RR bikes are funded by the sale of old metal and uncomplicated aluminum in the US market, and by unimaginably large quantities of scooter sales in developing Asian markets like India, China, Indo, etc. The Japanese don't have huge marketshare, but if they move 2M scooters at $50-$100 margins, that's a lot of scratch.


 


The other weird twist is the US RR segment. As you point out, the US moves volume though marketshare is almost nil. In the US, 600s outsell 1000s by a wide margin, and the AMA has twice contemplated using 600s as the premier SBK class. From 2004-2008, the US had a 600cc SBK class, though it was an undercard to the 1000cc SBK class.

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You've probably perused it (if not, you can quickly Google and pretend you have...) but a recent Yamaha Motor annual report showed the scariness of the pre-GFC US sales and the plunge they took. I think it was something like 270K odd sales in 2005 which turned into something like 80K in '09 (or '10 or whatever).


I have no idea what the model mix of those remaining 80K, but Yamaha was depending on Asia for revenue from there on.

Dr No

3387991354748578


You've probably perused it (if not, you can quickly Google and pretend you have...) but a recent Yamaha Motor annual report showed the scariness of the pre-GFC US sales and the plunge they took. I think it was something like 270K odd sales in 2005 which turned into something like 80K in '09 (or '10 or whatever).


I have no idea what the model mix of those remaining 80K, but Yamaha was depending on Asia for revenue from there on.

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There was a particularly terrifying column by Kevin Ash on Yamaha in the latest edition of my local Dutch mag. Basically saying Yamaha are doomed. Not good at all.

Dr No

3387991354748578


You've probably perused it (if not, you can quickly Google and pretend you have...) but a recent Yamaha Motor annual report showed the scariness of the pre-GFC US sales and the plunge they took. I think it was something like 270K odd sales in 2005 which turned into something like 80K in '09 (or '10 or whatever).


I have no idea what the model mix of those remaining 80K, but Yamaha was depending on Asia for revenue from there on.

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I'm not surprised to hear that Yamaha are in dire straights. As I was saying, the entirety of the high-displacement motorcycle industry was predicated on record sales in the US. When the manufacturers lost 600,000 total units in the US market, and over half of those sales were from the high-margin cruisers and dirtbikes, people were going to be in pain.


 


As I said, this was a stupid model from the jump off, and the current crop of Supersport machines has made the RR segment dependent upon old metal and uncomplicated off-roaders. The situation has already cost the US it's prized AMA Pro racing series. I would much rather endure pragmatic changes to the products, than lose the entire RR segment and racing. But if Roo and BJ.C are convinced that consumers get whatever they want..........

Looks like 2010 was the nadir. 53K sales in NA.


 


For anyone interested, wander over to page 7 of


 


http://www.yamaha-motor.co.jp/global/ir/material/pdf/2011/2011annual-e.pdf


 


Also of note is the clean-and-green message and focus on emerging-markets (the only sportsbike mentioned is the YZF-R15).


 


MotoGP get half a page, with Rugby sponsorship receiving equal coverage.


 


Also Yammie Marine hauls in TWICE the cash as their motorcycle arm (excluding ATVs, which are counted separately) in the US...


 


Glad I'm not interested in modern road bikes then....


 


 


 


[I got the numbers wrong above 207K not 270K and 53K not 80K. Still a cliff, though. This is the 2010 report http://www.yamaha-motor.co.jp/global/ir/material/pdf/2010/2010annual-e.pdf]

Kropotkin

3388011354749739


There was a particularly terrifying column by Kevin Ash on Yamaha in the latest edition of my local Dutch mag. Basically saying Yamaha are doomed. Not good at all.

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Im not surprised to hear this,in fact im a bit shocked that others havnt followed SAABs route and chopped of the bleeding limb even if only temporary,as Dr no says above Yamaha marine far outways motorcycles in the US but this is true for all the big four and with modern group structures loosing one part only helps the whole, i think we will be shocked very soon.

thedeal

3388061354783219


Im not surprised to hear this,in fact im a bit shocked that others havnt followed SAABs route and chopped of the bleeding limb even if only temporary,as Dr no says above Yamaha marine far outways motorcycles in the US but this is true for all the big four and with modern group structures loosing one part only helps the whole, i think we will be shocked very soon.

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I heard a rumor from a semi-reliable source that Suzuki would stop making motorcycles altogether. Don't know how much stock to put in the rumor, but the fact that such a rumor is even doing the rounds is sign enough of the problems.

Kropotkin

3388081354795108


I heard a rumor from a semi-reliable source that Suzuki would stop making motorcycles altogether. Don't know how much stock to put in the rumor, but the fact that such a rumor is even doing the rounds is sign enough of the problems.

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'I knot pork'

Kropotkin

3388081354795108


I heard a rumor from a semi-reliable source that Suzuki would stop making motorcycles altogether. Don't know how much stock to put in the rumor, but the fact that such a rumor is even doing the rounds is sign enough of the problems.

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I heard some thing similar about a week ago,so it might be true, we will see.

thedeal

3388241354806195


I heard some thing similar about a week ago,so it might be true, we will see.

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Kropotkin

3388081354795108


I heard a rumor from a semi-reliable source that Suzuki would stop making motorcycles altogether. Don't know how much stock to put in the rumor, but the fact that such a rumor is even doing the rounds is sign enough of the problems.

Click to expand...

Hearsay rocks! So here's some from me.


 


In late July, I drove past the brand spanking new site they were/are commissioning in the Philippines.


Dunno if the new plant in India is underway, may have been stalled by the trouble at Maruti. That plant was supposed to have a capacity of 100s of thousands.


 


They may no longer give a .... about the US and Europe, but they don't seem to be abandoning bikes.

Dr No

3388341354835030


 


Hearsay rocks! So here's some from me.


 


In late July, I drove past the brand spanking new site they were/are commissioning in the Philippines.


Dunno if the new plant in India is underway, may have been stalled by the trouble at Maruti. That plant was supposed to have a capacity of 100s of thousands.


 


They may no longer give a .... about the US and Europe, but they don't seem to be abandoning bikes.

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Thanks for that. As I said, my source was 'semi-reliable', so there was reason to doubt. Also, stopping production of motorcycles could mean in Japan for big bikes. I would be surprised if they abandoned growth markets in the east, which is mostly scooters and small-bore bikes. Still waiting to hear from contacts about this, but no news is good news, presumably.

I travel a lot in Asia. Yamaha are the bike to have, for the young speedsters. That it's a 4T 150cc doesn't matter - it has JL or 46 on it and it is blue and white. They will even sticker up their Chinese  Thai, Philippine, Indian copy with Yamaha stickers in an effort to fool you into thinking they are on a Yamaha. There was a bit of that with Repsol/HRC, but not as much.


 


Yamaha's factory in Indonesia is the largest motor vehicle factory in the world, turning out MILLIONS of units a year.


 


If they are going out of business, someone made some horrific mistakes when commissioning that thing two years ago.

Kropotkin

3388081354795108


I heard a rumor from a semi-reliable source that Suzuki would stop making motorcycles altogether. Don't know how much stock to put in the rumor, but the fact that such a rumor is even doing the rounds is sign enough of the problems.

Click to expand...

I wish to make an observation called "bang for buck" built on a number of factual premises. All $$$ are in $AUD


 


1. Motor cycle rider are all dog starvers, me included. Cheap dog starvers. 


 


2. Motor cycles have incredible performance, including high tech brakes, suspension and and engine management, the performance of a motorcycle is comparable to a $250K plus car. The transition from a prototype bike to street bike in terms of that technology is much faster than on four wheels (IMHO)


 


 


3. There are 6 manufacturers that will give you a top of the line super bike for under $30,000 (BMW, Aprilia, Kawasaki, Suzuki, Honda, Yamaha) On the right road all of these will hand that $250K+ car its expensive carbon fibre arse. If we raise the bar to $40K or $50K we get Bimoto, MV Augusta and Ducati as well.


 


4. In car terms we move from a nice Honda Accord Euro into performance GM or Ford models or hot hatch that a bike will still eat, we aren't even up to my precious Volvo yet. 


 


5. The competitiveness in this market and the lower profit margins provides little protection from the exposure to market fluctuations, yet the inability of the manufacturers to work out some price fixing and our proclivity to change bikes and brands create a discount happy sales environment, personally the only brand of bikes I've bought "2 in a row" of having owned many dozens of bikes is 2 Hondas and 2 KTM's. My last 4 road bikes in order were Yamaha, Kawasaki, BMW and Honda. 


 


 


 


When you do a Lex and work out the sums it is a lot of money to spend on top of the line technology when equivalent money will you see you on a push rod noisy V twin with the performance of a fat kid in a marathon, with .... brakes and no technology,  a much bigger margin for profit, a better prospect for looking "cool" and pulling chicks (not my opinion) and less chance of ending up in gaol or losing your licence. 


 


Sport bikes are a risky proposition until manufacturers and consumers get realistic about the value of what you get for your money. 

Dr No

3388341354835030


 


Hearsay rocks! So here's some from me.


 


In late July, I drove past the brand spanking new site they were/are commissioning in the Philippines.


Dunno if the new plant in India is underway, may have been stalled by the trouble at Maruti. That plant was supposed to have a capacity of 100s of thousands.


 


They may no longer give a .... about the US and Europe, but they don't seem to be abandoning bikes.

Click to expand...

Yes.... that's good news for the stock holders, but I assume you have seen what passes for motorcycles in India?


Vespa's parent company built Vespas in India for decades - but that's all they built. Actually I owned one - out


of nostalgia, 'caused I lived there for 10 years.

Arrabbiata1

3388121354798055


'I knot pork'

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I admit it. I'm scratching my head. Is this a Zen Koan?

Keshav

3388631354889349


I admit it. I'm scratching my head. Is this a Zen Koan?

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'Pink Troop'

Andy Roo

3388531354880647


 


Sport bikes are a risky proposition until manufacturers and consumers get realistic about the value of what you get for your money. 

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You are attempting to make a value argument, but sportbikes are fundamentally different from other types of motorcycles. In business, attempting to sell fundamentally different products to existing customers with dominant purchasing behaviors is referred to as re-educating the consumer. Re-education is often regarded as one of the least-effective business strategies available--only preferable when your company or segment faces imminent death.


 


Riders shouldn't want an upright riding position or handlebars of a touring bike. They shouldn't want uncomplicated air-cooled twins and the 'Harley' sound of a cruiser. They shouldn't want to ride on the dirt with a dirt bike when we have perfectly good paved roads. They shouldn't want the image associated with these products. Young buyers shouldn't want a car before a superbike. Instead, these customers should want a two-wheeled Ferrari Enzo with no crash structure. The performance attribute you perceive to be a strength is probably the segment's biggest weakness, and re-education will not be effective.


 


Re-education isn't effective in the car market, either. Most buyers who can afford $250K cars decide to purchase a flagship Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Bentley, etc. Ferrari and Porsche no longer try to change consumptive habits. Instead, Porsche have built the Cayenne, Panamera, and Boxster/Cayman (mid-engine). Ferrari build 4-seat GTs like the 456, and now the all-wheel-drive FF. The Japanese motorcycle manufacturers build cruisers, dirt bikes, and touring bikes.


 


The best bet for SBK is to use the GT business model. GT vehicles and supercars have become irrelevant obscura (halo products) for motivated buyers with financial means (the current SBK price tags already adhere to this philosophy). The segment is funded by selling homologation specials to professional racing teams around the world and club racers. Naturally, this endeavor is aided by reasonable performance and cost, which increases ridability, safety, and participation (the 750s worked well in this regard). But these cost and safety considerations must be balanced with the value of the entertainment product and the public brand perception of SBK racing (the 750s also worked well in this regard). Unfortunately, this model relies on viewership, but viewership is shrinking in developed economies.


 


The viewership base for SBK racing is shrinking, imo, due to a contracting two-wheeled marketplace and terrible cross-pollination between market segments. Furthermore, riders are getting long in the tooth, and these older customers long for premium versions of the motorcycle they had when they were young. The market is not replenishing the young consumers who will buy tomorrow's premium bikes and watch future GP/WSBK.


 


Full circle. Product argument to product argument. The key is to develop products that actually attract young buyers in large quantities, imo, and re-create the culture that is fueling premium moto sales today. No re-education necessary.