Motegi prediction

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Sep 23 2008, 11:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Then they are very good as the team pick out the tires at thursday or friday. After they pick them out they are marked by officials. Usually they they take the most likely sett end scrub it in over two laps at the start of moring warm up but if the wether doesn't pan out as planned they pick another one. All withing the marked tires of course.

If you believe the rider's, they are the one's who pick the tires based upon a list they receive from the manufacturers, at least that's what they say.

In some very unusual instances (like China, SURPRISE). The tire manufacturer will advise/coerce the team into overruling a rider's decision. Wait, that's what Stoner reported happened to him when Mamola interviewed him after the race. The team made Stoner run the stupid soft tires that he hates and can't ride. 1 minute later Mamola interviewed Pedrosa and asked him if he experienced any tire or fuel problems. Pedrosa said "no" the tires were not his concern b/c the Michelins and the Bridgestones were the same. Wow, the Evil Midget IS A FASTER LEARNER THAN THE ROSSI BOPPERS!

Somewhere back in the midfield were Hayden and Edwards. They were both so happy Michelin made them run medium rear, hard front. That is their favorite setup as evidenced by the number of times they pushed the front at the hairpin apex on the back straight.

Edwards and Hayden love cornerspeed setups.

Anyway.

Full wet:

1. Vermeulen
2. Stoner
3. Rossi

Dry:

1. Pedrosa
2. Stoner
3. Rossi (sandbagging it to the championship)

Monsoon:

1. West
2. Stoner
3. Hayden

If Rossi bins it with a weak little lowside, this sport is fixed.

1. Rossi
2. Hayden
3. West

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (mylexicon @ Sep 23 2008, 09:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>If Rossi bins it with a weak little lowside, this sport is fixed.

That can happen to the best of them... it doesn't mean its fixed.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (mylexicon @ Sep 23 2008, 10:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>If you believe the rider's, they are the one's who pick the tires based upon a list they receive from the manufacturers, at least that's what they say.

In some very unusual instances (like China, SURPRISE). The tire manufacturer will advise/coerce the team into overruling a rider's decision. Wait, that's what Stoner reported happened to him when Mamola interviewed him after the race. The team made Stoner run the stupid soft tires that he hates and can't ride. 1 minute later Mamola interviewed Pedrosa and asked him if he experienced any tire or fuel problems. Pedrosa said "no" the tires were not his concern b/c the Michelins and the Bridgestones were the same. Wow, the Evil Midget IS A FASTER LEARNER THAN THE ROSSI BOPPERS!

Somewhere back in the midfield were Hayden and Edwards. They were both so happy Michelin made them run medium rear, hard front. That is their favorite setup as evidenced by the number of times they pushed the front at the hairpin apex on the back straight.

Edwards and Hayden love cornerspeed setups.

I know you want to keep your conspiracy alive but there are no surprices here. There was made a wrong desition in China, and Stoner didn't have the guts to overrule the desition. Same situation as Sachsenring this year and Le Mans last year, but with michelin riders.

Motegi should be a dry race.

1. Rossi or Stoner
2. Stoner or Rossi
3. Dovi or Nicky or Capi

Since the track is basically an on-off kind of ride, braking violently into corners and then accelerating, there is the possibility of seeing Rossi outbraking Stoner and Stoner recovering the lead on exit and on the straights, a little like (wishful thinking?) Laguna...

If a Laguna-like race develops, then this time Stoner could be the winner as his desire for revenge should be at the apex now, whereas Rossi will not be willing to risk a collar bone as he has too much to lose.

It the two super-heroes hinder each other too much, then watch for Dovi who could be a big surprise here...

Hayden could also be very fast but he will probably have to slow down in the second half of the race when his Honda begins cutting his power to save the fuel he wastes with his powerslides...

EDIT: I forgot Pedrobot, last year's poleman on the dry (but on Michelin then). He may either win by disapppearing into the distance ahead of Rossi, Stoner Dovi & C., or barely make the top 5. Depends on how well the Bridgestones will help him, and on any HRC special effort for the occasion...

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Sep 23 2008, 11:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I know you want to keep your conspiracy alive but there are no surprices here. There was made a wrong desition in China, and Stoner didn't have the guts to overrule the desition. Same situation as Sachsenring this year and Le Mans last year, but with michelin riders.

What are you on about?

Casey said he wanted the hard compound (2007s) but he was overruled by Bridgestone. What's he going to do, beat Yasukawa with his lid until he shows up with the right tires? Bridgestone thought it would be better to give the 2007s to Kawasaki for China. They made good use of them.

Weird, Bridgestone decided Kawasaki should have the 2007s at Portugal too. Hopper beat Stoner handily that round.

The question is why have Bridgestone abandoned the tires that the won a championship with? Why have the taken the tires from the man that used them to notch wins by 10+ seconds? Remember Qatar 2008? I know you have short term memory but the 2007s looked like they were working pretty well.

The 2007s did struggle at a few rounds last year so development of the 2008s is not unusual. But the disappearance of the tires that caused Casey Stoner to obliterate the competition is unexplained to everyone including Casey himself.

The 2007 Bridgestones were so good they caused the tire debacle at the end of the 2007 season. Yet you think they disappeared by coincidence.

Motegi prediction: I will get pissed and wander into the pits in my "official" Honda getup, taking pictures along the way.

Worked last time.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ingjr @ Sep 23 2008, 06:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>1. Rossi
2. Hayden
3. West
Is it going to rain?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (mylexicon @ Sep 24 2008, 03:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'> What are you on about?

Casey said he wanted the hard compound (2007s) but he was overruled by Bridgestone. What's he going to do, beat Yasukawa with his lid until he shows up with the right tires? Bridgestone thought it would be better to give the 2007s to Kawasaki for China. They made good use of them.

Weird, Bridgestone decided Kawasaki should have the 2007s at Portugal too. Hopper beat Stoner handily that round.

The question is why have Bridgestone abandoned the tires that the won a championship with? Why have the taken the tires from the man that used them to notch wins by 10+ seconds? Remember Qatar 2008? I know you have short term memory but the 2007s looked like they were working pretty well.

The 2007s did struggle at a few rounds last year so development of the 2008s is not unusual. But the disappearance of the tires that caused Casey Stoner to obliterate the competition is unexplained to everyone including Casey himself.

The 2007 Bridgestones were so good they caused the tire debacle at the end of the 2007 season. Yet you think they disappeared by coincidence.

I mostly agree with you Lex but when you theorize such things you are leaving out all other factors, we cannot assume that the tires are responsible for the outcome solely. Example, comparing China 07 with China 08 is not the same thing. For one China 08 was a mixed condition track, if I recall, it was a wet track in the process of drying over the race time. Whereas 07 it was dry, so comparing Stoner's time from 07 and saying in 08 he was 11 seconds slower overall is due solely(or mostly) to a tire change is leaving out other factors, such as track condition, not to mention chassis changes, suspension setups, and how the rider feels that day.

1. lorenzo
2. dovi
3. hayden

I just read this.He is going to test all by himself the same weekend of the meeting discussing/cofirming control tires.
Is Rossi going to try out some 2009 control tires?Who knows.
http://www.motorcyclenews.com/MCN/sport/sp...mp;R=EPI-103090

Stoner
Rossi
Lorenzo

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jumkie @ Sep 24 2008, 05:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Is it going to rain?



Does it matter?

1. ROSSI (Whatever the weather)

2. Lorenzo (He's got his confidence back)

3. Hayden/Dovi (They've both got something to fight for)

This is were my money is.

My predictions:
If it's dry:
Pedrosa is going to be fast/fastest on the practices because he's on a Repsol Honda built for him and this track to put it short ,and he and the team has found out how to use his tires.It is Honda's and Bridgestone's hometrack after all.I think Stoner and Rossi is going to catch up on Sunday and Stoner is going to beat Pedrosa just because he has to,to get 2nd in the championship.Rossi third because he don't want to gamble,he is getting the title.

Stoner
Pedrosa
Rossi
Capirossi

If it's mixed weather all weekend i'm not sure Stoner is even going to be on the podium.

Pedrosa
Rossi
Dovisioso/Capirossi
Stoner

If it's wetrace:
Vermulen
Pedrosa
Rossi
Stoner

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Anders GUZZI @ Sep 24 2008, 08:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I just read this.He is going to test all by himself the same weekend of the meeting discussing/cofirming control tires.
Is Rossi going to try out some 2009 control tires?Who knows.
http://www.motorcyclenews.com/MCN/sport/sp...mp;R=EPI-103090


Jeez Anders, talk about wild speculation. I would expect some BS like this from Lex.
Says noithing about tyres, I'm sure the rest of the riders with kick up something wicked if the knew that Valentino was going to test '09 M1 with a control tyre

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (johnny @ Sep 24 2008, 09:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Jeez Anders, talk about wild speculation. I would expect some BS like this from Lex.
Says noithing about tyres, I'm sure the rest of the riders with kick up something wicked if the knew that Valentino was going to test '09 M1 with a control tyre
MCN is speculation.
I was more or less assuming you all had read the other MCN thing
http://www.motorcyclenews.com/MCN/sport/sp...9/?R=EPI-103091
Anyway i just thought it would be strange if Rossi was the only rider testing and no one else in Japan at a time when the schedule is so tight before the next race.Maybe Yamaha has two new bikes to choose from and one of them has a cabon frame.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bootsakah @ Sep 24 2008, 09:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I mostly agree with you Lex but when you theorize such things you are leaving out all other factors, we cannot assume that the tires are responsible for the outcome solely. Example, comparing China 07 with China 08 is not the same thing. For one China 08 was a mixed condition track, if I recall, it was a wet track in the process of drying over the race time. Whereas 07 it was dry, so comparing Stoner's time from 07 and saying in 08 he was 11 seconds slower overall is due solely(or mostly) to a tire change is leaving out other factors, such as track condition, not to mention chassis changes, suspension setups, and how the rider feels that day.

I cannot disagree. There is a good chance that a good part of his poor performance can be attributed to the track conditions. However, him being 10 seconds slower is not the point. The conspiracy revolves around the removal of the 2007 tires that caused the tire episodes at season's end.

I was screaming about the 10 seconds b/c I thought it was unbelievable that Bridgestone would recommend tires that took him out of contention. Yet the tires he wanted were made only available to Kawasaki. I also wanted people to reexamine his poor performance over the race weekend and rewatch the broadcast if possible.

Keep in mind that no one at Bridgestone forthright with Stoner. No one told him the new soft compounds were not the same as the ones he raced in 2007. After being forced to run the soft compounds at LeMans Stoner finally had a blow up with the media.

He was angry that a good new rear tire was delivered after the race at LeMans. And he remarked angrily that the soft tires aren't the same. The new soft tires weren't very soft and they were easily capable of lasting race distance without much effort. He didn't even know he was on the 2008 spec.

Stoner had absolutely no idea what was going on. You can guarandamntee that people at Ducati knew what was happening (as evidenced by Gibby's random arrival at Mugello), yet Stoner was utterly and completely in-the-dark.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (mylexicon @ Sep 25 2008, 05:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I cannot disagree. There is a good chance that a good part of his poor performance can be attributed to the track conditions. However, him being 10 seconds slower is not the point. The conspiracy revolves around the removal of the 2007 tires that caused the tire episodes at season's end.

I was screaming about the 10 seconds b/c I thought it was unbelievable that Bridgestone would recommend tires that took him out of contention. Yet the tires he wanted were made only available to Kawasaki. I also wanted people to reexamine his poor performance over the race weekend and rewatch the broadcast if possible.

Keep in mind that no one at Bridgestone forthright with Stoner. No one told him the new soft compounds were not the same as the ones he raced in 2007. After being forced to run the soft compounds at LeMans Stoner finally had a blow up with the media.

He was angry that a good new rear tire was delivered after the race at LeMans. And he remarked angrily that the soft tires aren't the same. The new soft tires weren't very soft and they were easily capable of lasting race distance without much effort. He didn't even know he was on the 2008 spec.

Stoner had absolutely no idea what was going on. You can guarandamntee that people at Ducati knew what was happening (as evidenced by Gibby's random arrival at Mugello), yet Stoner was utterly and completely in-the-dark.
Blablablablabla...anyway who has the bright idea to change this prediction thread into the 007 thread?