Is now the time to march Dani to the gallows?

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Pedros is not a mid-packer, but fudge-packer is another story.


 


Bottomline, you got to beat the only guys with the equipment capable of competing for a title.  In the last 8 years, Pedro has had the equipment to win a title FACT!  It doesn't matter WHO the other guys are, this is the historical distinction and context that is fairly unique for Pedrosa, becasue he has had the equipment to win a title (this is the only thing relevant).  


 


For now those riders are the Lorenzo's, Marc's, Valentinos, and Stoner (when he was competing).   (Keep in mind this is ONLY because these riders have the competitive equipment similar in parity to Pedrosa).  For the record, I'll say it again, I don't buy that these are the only world class riders that are the "best" in the world, but rather they have the equipment to put that awesome talent on display.  The thing is that of all the riders on these bikes, Pedro has the distinction of being on championship worthy machinery (despite recently some people failing to debate otherwise) yet has failed to capitalize on it 8 years running.  None of the other riders can say this, NONE, during the last 8 years (Lorenzo has only been in the class 7 years, Stoner was on as good equipment 2 years, VR was on as good equipment the last 6 years, and Marc this year.)


 


2006 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)


2007 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2008 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2009 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2010 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2011 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2012 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2013 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; likely result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
 
Again, the only relevant fact is that Pedro competed on championship worthy equipment ever single year during his MotoGP career for the last 8 years, so far the tally is ZERO titles.  You can say he has bad luck, and I certainly agree with this concept, as luck is always involved in titles, but this explanation is true for maybe one or two, maybe even three years.  But when you are on title worthy equipment for 8 years (nobody can successfully debate otherwise, and so far nobody ever has) then this idea of being "unlucky" must them concede to another explanation.  
 
Edit to add: Thinking about BJC's carefully calculated odds this year, Pedro, had a 1:4 chance of wining the title from the start of the season.  If BJC could now factory in using his complex calculations (undoubted challenging for even the Rain Man) Pedrosa's odds of wining a title should have been even better, 1:3 (given Rossi is not a contender). Since Pedrosa was promoted to MotoGP, the concentration of title worthy equipment has shrank and become increasingly concentrated at the top.  In 2006, there were multiple winners and podium contenders for 4 manufactures, by factory, satellite and even privateer entries.  Today only 4 bikes from 2 manufactures have visited the top step.  Pedrosa has been on one of those entries his entire MotoGP career.  That means that his odds of notching a title have increased every year!  So much so that even the slightest anomaly in the parity or health of the other riders on win worthy bikes meant his odds increased dramatically.  If anything, he has had luck (by design) on his side.  
 
When Stoner got hurt or was ill on the Ducati, this increased the odds for Pedro.
When Suzuki and Kawa withdrew, this increased the odds for Pedro (theoretically) 
When Rossi broke his leg on the M1 this increased the odds for Pedro.  
Every year Stoner on the Ducati increased the odds for Pedro.  
When Lorenzo got hurt on the M1 this increased the odds for Pedro dramatically!
When Valentino or anybody has ridden the Ducati, this increased the odds for Pedro. 
When the Honda became the dominant bike as of a year ago, this increased the odds for Pedro.  
When his teammate retired and was replace by a rookie, this increased the odds for Pedro.
When Marc dislocated his arm, this increased the odds for Pedro.
 
Jumkie
3606151378405143

Pedros is not a mid-packer, but fudge-packer is another story.


Bottomline, you got to beat the only guys with the equipment capable of competing for a title. In the last 8 years, Pedro has had the equipment to win a title FACT! It doesn't matter WHO the other guys are, this is the historical distinction and context that is fairly unique for Pedrosa, becasue he has had the equipment to win a title (this is the only thing relevant).


For now those riders are the Lorenzo's, Marc's, Valentinos, and Stoner (when he was competing). (Keep in mind this is ONLY because these riders have the competitive equipment similar in parity to Pedrosa). For the record, I'll say it again, I don't buy that these are the only world class riders that are the "best" in the world, but rather they have the equipment to put that awesome talent on display. The thing is that of all the riders on these bikes, Pedro has the distinction of being on championship worthy machinery (despite recently some people failing to debate otherwise) yet has failed to capitalize on it 8 years running. None of the other riders can say this, NONE, during the last 8 years (Lorenzo has only been in the class 7 years, Stoner was on as good equipment 2 years, VR was on as good equipment the last 6 years, and Marc this year.)


2006 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2007 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2008 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2009 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2010 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2011 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2012 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2013 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; likely result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)


Again, the only relevant fact is that Pedro competed on championship worthy equipment ever single year during his MotoGP career for the last 8 years, so far the tally is ZERO titles. You can say he has bad luck, and I certainly agree with this concept, as luck is always involved in titles, but this explanation is true for maybe one or two, maybe even three years. But when you are on title worthy equipment for 8 years (nobody can successfully debate otherwise, and so far nobody ever has) then this idea of being "unlucky" must them concede to another explanation.


Edit to add: since Pedrosa came into the class, the concentration of title worthy equipment has shrank and become increasingly concentrated at the top. In 2006, there were multiple winners and podium contenders in 4 manufactures, by factory, satellite and even privateer entries. Today only 4 bikes from 2 manufactures have visited the top step. Pedrosa has been on one of those entries his entire MotoGP career. That means that his odds of notching a title have increased every year! So much so that even the slightest anomaly in the parity or health of the other riders on win worthy bikes meant his odds increased dramatically. If anything, he has had luck (by design) on his side.


When Stoner got hurt or was ill on the Ducati, this increased the odds for Pedro.

When Suzuki and Kawa withdrew, this increased the odds for Pedro (theoretically)

When Rossi broke his leg on the M1 this increased the odds for Pedro.

Every year Stoner on the Ducati increased the odds for Pedro.

When Lorenzo got hurt on the M1 this increased the odds for Pedro dramatically!

When the Honda became the dominant bike as of a year ago, this increased the odds for Pedro.

When his teammate retired and was replace by a rookie, this increased the odds for Pedro.


You missed one juNkie


2014 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; likely result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
 
Jumkie
3606151378405143



2006 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)


2007 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2008 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2009 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2010 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2011 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2012 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
2013 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; likely result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)


hhmmm.... I'm starting to see a pattern developing here. 


 


Seriously I believe that if Marky gets injured then this is one of Dani's best chances to win the MotoGP title, what with the RCV being so much better than the M1 at this time 
 
Garbin
3606191378408944

hhmmm.... I'm starting to see a pattern developing here. 


 


Seriously I believe that if Marky gets injured then this is one of Dani's best chances to win the MotoGP title, what with the RCV being so much better than the M1 at this time 


 


Haha, well, at the start of the season, his odds (thanx BJC) went from 1:4 to 1:3 once we realized VR wasn't a contender.  When Lorenzo got hurt his odds increased to 1:2, against his rookie teammate (advantage pedro, right).  When Marc dislocated his arm (or as Kropo would describe it, his arm was ripped off of his body) Pedro's odds in winning the Silverstone race were 1:2, (with the advantage of riding a superior bike) the ....... guy came third!  Hahaha, how ...... is that?
 
Well at the beginning of the year, it looked like Pedrosa was the man to be beaten.  This all especially after his run towards the end of last season.  Oh and where has his awesome starts gone?  That used to be the way he would be able to win races cause it sure as hell wasn't his superior racecraft.  I say midpacker lightly, but come on, where is this guy been the past 6ish years in the championship, it isn't at the sharp end, neither at the dull so somewhere in the middle one might say?  If Pedrosa is going to win a championship he is going to have to do it like Vale was able to win a race this year, without those who are typically faster than him in the race.
 
Garbin
3606191378408944

2006 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2007 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2008 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2009 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2010 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2011 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2012 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

2013 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; likely result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)

hhmmm.... I'm starting to see a pattern developing here.


Seriously I believe that if Marky gets injured then this is one of Dani's best chances to win the MotoGP title, what with the RCV being so much better than the M1 at this time


2015 Pedrosa on world championship equipment; likely result: ZERO title (regardless of WHO was competing)
 
Actually skip that last post. There's no way he will be on championship winning equipment in 2015
 
Willski
3606231378410073

Actually skip that last post. There's no way he will be on championship winning equipment in 2015


 


You thinking he will be replaced by Redding?  Nah bro, they'll pass him over and give it to either Mavdick Vinanalez, Luis Sadom, or Alex Reams.
 
tobalsan
3606101378399764

How does luck come into that ? Sure, if you had wiped all the aforementioned riders, maybe he would've been champion, but then, where is the pride - or even the real "success" - when there are no really strong opponents ? 


 


To the extreme, I can also say that I'm the best rider in the world, but you just have to take out Rossi, Lorenzo, Marquez, Pedrosa, Crutchlow, all the motogp , superbike riders, SBS, AMA, BSB, FSBK, etc.


 


Lorenzo managed to win a world title against rossi, stoner, pedrosa. Stoner did too, against rossi, pedrosa, lorenzo, And now Marquez is going to too, against Lorenzo, Rossi, Pedrosa (and probably Stoner if he wasn't retired)


Yes, you right, I did not men to say "if Pedrosa rides without Rossi, Stoner, Lorenzo, Marquez and Stoner win the Championship", I meant to say: Pedrosa for win the championship He should be most naughty agonistically. Now it's hard for Him but is a Good rider and 1 of  5 my favorite riders. In my opinion if He stay on Honda He won a championship. (Sorry but i'm poor in english :D)
 
Hunk46
3606261378410688

Yes, you right, I did not men to say "if Pedrosa rides without Rossi, Stoner, Lorenzo, Marquez and Stoner win the Championship", I meant to say: Pedrosa for win the championship He should be most naughty agonistically. Now it's hard for Him but is a Good rider and 1 of  5 my favorite riders. In my opinion if He stay on Honda He won a championship. (Sorry but i'm poor in english :D)


If he stays on a Honda he will be the number two rider from here on out.  He will never win the championship.  I don't care what bike he is on, he just doesn't have what it takes to be a champion at that level. 
 
[quote name="Hunk46" post="360626" timestamp="1378410688"]
Yes, you right, I did not men to say "if Pedrosa rides without Rossi, Stoner, Lorenzo, Marquez and Stoner win the Championship", I meant to say: Pedrosa for win the championship He should be most naughty agonistically. Now it's hard for Him but is a Good rider and 1 of 5 my favorite riders. In my opinion if He stay on Honda He won a championship. (Sorry but i'm poor in english :D)[/quote]

Thanks for joining the forum, no worries about your English. Some people here speak good English but are dumb ..... (povol). That is much worse buddy.

The fact is, as I outlined above, he HAS been on title worthy Hondas for 8 years. So far he has not won. Why do you think if he "stay on Honda" he will ever win?
 
Pedrosa has definitely been a disappointment, but fuel tanks will only hold 20L next season. Imo, Honda will have to make their bike work more similarly to the Yamaha. Dani's style may be an asset, rather than a liability.
 
Jumkie
3606291378411115

Thanks for joining the forum, no worries about your English.  Some people here speak perfect English (like Povol) but are dumb ......  That is much worse buddy.


 


The fact is, as I outlined above, he HAS been on title worthy Hondas for 8 years. So far he has not won.  Why do you think if he "stay on Honda" he will ever win?  


Because for me Honda is a most powerful bike, and I'm a fan of Yamaha. If He go on Yamaha or worst on Ducati, He don't won nothing, this is my personal opinion... I could be wrong :D
 
Because for me Honda is a most powerful bike, and I'm a fan of

Yamaha. If He go on Yamaha or worst on Ducati, He don't won nothing,

this is my personal opinion... I could be wrong :D


No arguments there. the Honda is a powerful bike, and one of only two bikes currently capable of taking the championship. What people are debating is that he's had the Honda now for a long time and hasn't been able to win a championship with it. We're questioning if it's likely he's ever going to. If he hasn't been able to do it in the last 8 years, is it time he gave up? Or that Honda gave up on him and gave his bike to someone more likely to win.


 


Welcome to the forum by the way, not been here long myself.
 
Pedrosa has definitely been a disappointment, but fuel tanks will only hold 20L next season. Imo, Honda will have to make their bike work more similarly to the Yamaha. Dani's style may be an asset, rather than a liability.


Excellent point Lex. I suspect next year's bikes will need to be ridden more in line, less wasted gas consuming movement, better suited for Pedro. So next year, he will have a 1:3 chance of winning (perhaps better as Honda will undoubtedly manage the fuel better, lighter smaller less drag riders, superior reliability). .... his odds may be more like 1:2.5, Though I will need to consult BJC as im not sure if my calculations are correct.
 
This pic is titled: Broken Man
Artist credit: Chops
Caption: Dont make eye contact with the bloke in the corner observing mockingly.
 

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Hunk46
3606331378414056

Because for me Honda is a most powerful bike, and I'm a fan of Yamaha. If He go on Yamaha or worst on Ducati, He don't won nothing, this is my personal opinion... I could be wrong :D


All new Duc coming.  Can't be a POS forever. 
 
did u know: Lorenzo has been in gp's for only one more year than Dani and has one more win than him in total. Dani has 47, Lorenzo has 48.


Wikipedia didnt tell me that either, I just knew it, im pretty ...... clever like that :)
 
wow, looking at it further now Dani has 57 fastest laps, vs Lorenzos 24!


Ahem, again I just knew that.....
 

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