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Gran Premio Red Bull de España - Jerez 2022

Keshav

Keshav

Joined Aug 2007
11K Posts | 3K+
Pomona NY
Early season predictions are even more off than usual. Me, I’m fine with that. Even if your pet rider seems to have all the cards in his favor, predictable is never good. I don’t know which is harder to swallow: Ducati’s stunning lack of results (Peco’s in particular) or Honda having created a machine that even Schmarkles can’t ride.
 
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warthog1 said:
Have we got any clue who is going to go well here?
I haven't anyway [emoji2369]
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It's jerez, so I won't be surprised to see more Yamaha success here.
Then again, the m1 does have a 50hp disadvantage over the suzuki. Yup, Rins, Quartararo, Mir.
 
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I'm picking Fabio for the outright win here. Should favor him on the M1. I don't expect anything out of the rest of the M1 riders. Honda will probably struggle to get to the front so I'm not seeing much out of them this weekend. I think the Ducatis will be interesting to watch to see if they can lock out a few rows.
 
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Suzuki supposedly have a strange handling characteristic whereby the bike's performance is somewhat independent of tire load. The bike is easy on the tires, and the riders claim that working the tires harder with different settings doesn't yield better lap times.

Jerez is considered to be a high-grip circuit, IIRC, so the tires will be under higher loads than they would be at other circuits. In my opinion, Jerez will not favor Suzuki. It will favor bikes and riders who've been complaining about lack of grip (e.g. Yamaha, Honda, KTM).

Suzuki is a solid package so they should go well, but if they have a breakthrough weekend, it would signal the team has found something. Either that or they've been releasing disinfo regarding the European campaign.
 
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I’m loving this season’s unpredictability. I’m also having fun predicting. Fabio will be contending, as will Marc. As much as I like Rins, I don’t see either him or Mir contending for anything other than a random podium. Same for Pol. Dark horse? Either Aprilia rider. The Ducati riders are all pretty beaten up or discouraged or both, save for Zarco. Some day hopefully he will win a race. Here?

Your guess is as good as mine.
 
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Bern1 said:
I’m loving this season’s unpredictability. I’m also having fun predicting. Fabio will be contending, as will Marc. As much as I like Rins, I don’t see either him or Mir contending for anything other than a random podium. Same for Pol. Dark horse? Either Aprilia rider. The Ducati riders are all pretty beaten up or discouraged or both, save for Zarco. Some day hopefully he will win a race. Here?

Your guess is as good as mine.
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Zarco is the new Petrucci.
 
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Hopefully Zarco won’t have to wait as long as Petrucci to win a race.

But yeah, interesting. Both of those riders good in the wet.
 
If I'm going on the record before the festivities begin:

This weekend is Fabio's to lose. If he can match his settings to the '22 tire, he will win.

Bastianini, Martin and Miller should all be fast. They have riding styles and/or base line settings for the GP22 that work in most conditions. Pecco is still searching, but maybe he finds something this weekend.

We'll find out if Rins has actually matured. I don't think the Suzuki will have race winning pace, based upon their previous statements. If Rins chucks it down the road because he sees the championship lead slipping away, or if he tilts and windmills, trying to win his first race of the season (to legitimize his lead) at home, I guess we'll know he's the same old Alex.

The story of this season seems to be that small changes in settings either make or break tire performance. Suzuki is the lone exception. X-factor could be the cloud cover. Air temp will be 25C on race day. The amount of sun baking the track will alter tire choices and settings for the race, which could make things interesting.
 
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mylexicon said:
If I'm going on the record before the festivities begin:

This weekend is Fabio's to lose. If he can match his settings to the '22 tire, he will win.

Bastianini, Martin and Miller should all be fast. They have riding styles and/or base line settings for the GP22 that work in most conditions. Pecco is still searching, but maybe he finds something this weekend.

We'll find out if Rins has actually matured. I don't think the Suzuki will have race winning pace, based upon their previous statements. If Rins chucks it down the road because he sees the championship lead slipping away, or if he tilts and windmills, trying to win his first race of the season (to legitimize his lead) at home, I guess we'll know he's the same old Alex.

The story of this season seems to be that small changes in settings either make or break tire performance. Suzuki is the lone exception. X-factor could be the cloud cover. Air temp will be 25C on race day. The amount of sun baking the track will alter tire choices and settings for the race, which could make things interesting.
Click to expand...

Fair assessment.

Actually I think Rins is plenty mature. However, he does exhibit more errors under pressure than behooves a truly top tier rider. Whether he can actually change that at this stage seems doubtful. He ain’t no spring chicken.
 
Yamaha says "Plan B" Available If Quartararo Departs

Maybe Fabio will go somewhere, maybe he won't, but this high school drama production is definitely smoke screen for something.

Either Fabio is threatening Yamaha and holding out for more money, or Fabio and Yamaha have had an agreement or understanding for quite some time, and they are shopping Fabio around to mess up the silly season for their competitors.
 
Interesting. I think Fabio will wait for some races before deciding. Seems like it would be a good idea to see how he and the bike does at the tracks that supposedly favor the Yamaha before checking out.

However, it would be something to see MM/FQ side by side in the same garage. Shades of Rossi/Lorenzo. The veteran and the upstart. Although I would think twice about that with Puig in charge.

But I can’t see Fabio really wanting to make that move with the Honda in its current state. Though Marquez beat him to 6th in that head to head. Who knows whether that was due to Marc or the Honda.

One thing is for sure, Fabio is the real deal and clearly, to me, the best rider in GP at the moment. I would think his requested salary would be worth it to any manufacturer seriously after the title.
 
Bern1 said:
Interesting. I think Fabio will wait for some races before deciding. Seems like it would be a good idea to see how he and the bike does at the tracks that supposedly favor the Yamaha before checking out.

However, it would be something to see MM/FQ side by side in the same garage. Shades of Rossi/Lorenzo. The veteran and the upstart. Although I would think twice about that with Puig in charge.

But I can’t see Fabio really wanting to make that move with the Honda in its current state. Though Marquez beat him to 6th in that head to head. Who knows whether that was due to Marc or the Honda.

One thing is for sure, Fabio is the real deal and clearly, to me, the best rider in GP at the moment. I would think his requested salary would be worth it to any manufacturer seriously after the title.
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I went back and watched the race from Marc's onboard cams. IMHO Marc won that battle because of the top speed advantage on the straights. FQ would be right on his rear wheel in T-11 but Marc would walk away on the straight but FQ would brake late and be right back on Marc's wheel coming out of 12. Then they'd tussle to the front straight and Marc would pull away again. That happened lap after lap in their battle.
 
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Looks like a nice day in Jerez. The top of the field is really tight.

If Dorna was gunning for close racing by implementing various rules they have totally succeeded. That, and the individual teams are really maxing out their efforts. Either way, it’s looking like a shootout.

Pecco looks like he’s back.

I like seeing Aprilia doing well, I hope they continue the improvement.
 
Not much to take away from FP1 because the circuit conditions were damp. Fabio did his best to undermine his chances this weekend by crashing early in the session, which resulted in a minor groin injury, and then he had several moments, one of which appeared to have sprained his wrist.

Honda looks fast, but also looks like it wants to throw a rider into the stands, if they push too hard. Has a weird menacing look on track.

Happy the Suzukis are one two. Mir looks really good. Bike is on rails, and no major hiccups in FP1. We’ll see if they can stay top or if the other teams are able to make headway.

FP2 conditions were excellent. Highlight of the session was actually Pedrosa picking up Marc on a scooter after Marc’s inexplicable double front end loss at Turns 6 and then at Turn 9.

The end of FP2 was basically a qualifying session with all of the front runners using fresh soft tires to set low times. Bastianini had a good showing, but he’s apparently still a bit banged up. Not sure if he can go race distance on the limit.

We’ll have to see what happens with Suzuki in FP3 tomorrow. They were competitive out of the gate because their base line setting is good, but as other teams start looking at tire temps etc. they should start setting better times with race tires.

Aleix got blocked by Marquez. He might be close on Sunday.
 
Pecco hard on the pain meds. If he doesn't get away early I don't see him wrestling a duc around a twisty circuit for a whole race.
I won't bust Fabios balls over crashing in the damp, he can do that himself
 
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Didn’t see FP 1, Fabio looked good in FP 2.
Hondas struggling.
Seems the Suzukis do well out of the gate. And then?
Looks like Aleix has more in the tank than his time indicates. I hope so. To have Aprilia in the mix adds a dimension to the battle.
Come on Mav, step it up!
 
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Bern1 said:
Didn’t see FP 1, Fabio looked good in FP 2.
Hondas struggling.
Seems the Suzukis do well out of the gate. And then?
Looks like Aleix has more in the tank than his time indicates. I hope so. To have Aprilia in the mix adds a dimension to the battle.
Come on Mav, step it up!
Click to expand...

According to Jack Miller, Jerez works the tires quite hard so each team starts with a baseline, and then works backward trying to balance the grip levels and take strain off of the tires.

The Suzuki is easy on tires. The FP1 results suggest Suzuki were in the sweet spot from the first lap of FP1.

Most of the front running teams used FP2 as pre-qualifying, apparently because they are convinced another layer of dew will blanket the track tomorrow morning. If setup time is limited by damp track conditions that could favor Suzuki quite a bit. The other teams may not have enough time to get the grip balance and settings correct for Sunday.

Still not convinced Suzuki will be at the front on Sunday, but if they qualify well, they might have a shot, particularly if the race starts cloudy and then moves to scorching sun.
 
propagandhi said:
Pecco hard on the pain meds. If he doesn't get away early I don't see him wrestling a duc around a twisty circuit for a whole race.
I won't bust Fabios balls over crashing in the damp, he can do that himself
Click to expand...

An aside: I wonder exactly what pain meds rider are allowed to use. Asking for a friend.
 
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