I'm glad someone finally went on the record and stated the obvious:
MotoGP is a multi-billion dollar enterprise. Rider movements of this magnitude are not left to chance. This silly season (and many others I'm sure) is the product of the Frankenstein marketing machine within Dorna.
Ducati knew they had Marquez contained. Promoting him to the factory team and giving up their youth talent was not the logical strategy. Ducati traded their rider/team empire for something from Dorna (probably a big bag of cash). Asking Ciabatti to dismantle his creation was a waste of his abilities. He was promoted out of MotoGP where he could work his magic again.
The big question is why now? The introduction of the 850cc era, and it's supposed focus on rider ability, is the precarious moment for MotoGP. The riders are on 2-year contracts at most, so these movements will be expired by 2027. Is this to keep Liberty happy? Will the 850cc era begin early for "safety reasons"?
Indeed. As JPS has said Carmelo has plenty of form on this, Valentino to Yamaha the first time, Valentino to Ducati, Valentino back to Yamaha. He was also involved in Stoner getting his first premier class ride with LCR, although I suspect wanting him an Australian rider on the grid didn’t extend to wanting that rider to beat Valentino.
The TV guys are now running the argument which I believe originated with Neil Hodgson, that the Ducati Corse sponsors didn’t want MM possibly winning the title on a bike sponsored by others, which seemed reasonable to me when I first heard it and imo as well as theirs had some influence, MM staying with Gresini on a GP25 next year would probably have sufficed for both Carmelo and MM himself. Sure getting out of the HRC contract and getting the Gresini ride this year in the first place may well have involved Dorna as well, reputedly not all involved with Ducati were happy about same.
In regard to Pramac and Martin, Campinoti (who gives every appearance of being something of a fool to me btw), has come out and said perhaps at least partly for self justification that he decided they didn’t have the full support of Ducati when the Ducati honchos appeared to cheer for Bastianini to beat Martin, to which one reply might be that they are all Italian. I guess if you see your role as developing riders for the factory team Martin is close to being the ultimate such product, although several other Pramac riders (Iannone, Petrucci, Miller and Bagnaia himself for instance) have progressed. Ducati also historically don’t like riders bargaining with them, as was previously the case with Dovi, and Martin basically demanding a factory ride publicly which would involve them sacking Bastianini, whom it was not unreasonable to sign to the factory team ahead of Martin at the time they signed him, probably didn’t endear him to Ducati. Even Bagnaia may have peeved them a little by holding out for more money. MM is of course very likely in a different position money-wise, but doesn’t seem to have done much bargaining with them, particularly if him refusing the Pramac ride came as a shock, and only ever asked for a factory Ducati at Gresini next season publicly as far as I am aware.
(EDIT. Most peculiar, the site appears to be preventing me from calling Campinoti an idi.t).