It was definitely a case of who blinked first.
Gigi did.
If they told Marquez it’s Pramac or nothing, I’m fairly certain he’d have gone to KTM and kept his Red Bull sponsorship. Even if it’s the 2nd best bike.
Pit Beirer seemed to think Marc had zero interest in KTM according to multiple reports. Frankly I'm inclined to agree with his thinking as there was nothing to indicate KTM was ever any type of consideration. My point is if Marc could pick up from following the Honda at Valencia, are we sure he didn't do the same for the KTM leading up to the factory Ducati signing? Sure is the 2nd best bike at the moment, but as we're seeing, there is an ocean between the RC16 and the GP24.
Plus Marc already showed that the only thing he truly cared about was getting the factory Ducati ride. If he was willing to forgo the Red Bull sponsorship to ride for the factory Ducati, we know certainly he doesn't care about the money. Winning a championship again has been his only priority. Maybe had they offered a current spec bike at Gresini, things would have been different. But he said early on he was after a factory bike. And I take that to mean not a factory bike at a satellite team. Because it's still not the same as being in a factory team.
Pramac was never an option because of the Nieto factor. I just think he kept that to the vest as a bargaining chip with Gigi.
KTM with the Red Bull sponsorship didn't matter since Beirer said he never had any belief in Marc ever signing with them and made plans accordingly. We know Yamaha and Honda were obviously not options.
So what does this leave, Ducati or Aprilia.
Much like the panic over the #1 plate, I believe the fear of Marc, a generational talent and arguably the greatest talent of the 4 stroke era, walking to Noales was enough to terrify Gigi and Domenicali.
He would be on a RS-GP if Gigi hadn't blinked.
But in the process, it appears he also eliminated most of his main competition. Pramac literally went to Yamaha after he shunned them. Martin wound up at Noales instead. The Beast is at KTM. Fabio is still being hamstrung by the Yamaha regardless of the Misano ride Sunday. Pedro is an X factor of course but the KTM would have to make such a huge step forward while simultaneously praying Gigi doesn't produce another worldbeater with the GP25. I think next year's bike is going to be another major step forward.
Pecco is going to be his biggest challenge ever as a teammate. I think he would prefer to minimize all other external factors and leave it to just Pecco.