2025 Silly Season

Current status with new potentials

Lenovo Ducati
Francesco Bagnaia
Marc Marquez

Red Bull KTM
Brad Binder
Pedro Acosta

Aprilia Racing
Jorge Martin
Marco Bezzechi

Repsol Honda
Joan Mir
Luca Marini

Monster Yamaha
Fabio Quartararo
Alex Rins

Red Bull KTM Tech 3
Enea Bastiannini
Maverick Vinales

Pramac Yamaha
Miguel Oliviera
Tony Arbolino?

VR46 Ducati
Fabio Digianantonio (Contracted directly to Ducati)
Franco Morbidelli?

Gresini Ducati
Alex Marquez
Femin Aldeguer?

Trackhouse Racing Aprilia
Raul Fernandez
Ai Ogura?

LCR Honda
Johann Zarco
Takaagi Nakagami?

Rookies, take a note.
When KTM opens the door for you look at it carefully. It has EXIT written on it.
Not sure about Beast, but methinks 2025 may be the last season in MotoGP for Vinales.

AnnoyingTwit said:

Dovi was the main challenger for Marquez for several years - I think it's unfair to say that he didn't achieve much. Marquez is arguably the GOAT, so coming second to Marquez isn't something unimpressive.

Joan Mir won Moto3, but wasn't impressive in Moto2, nor in his first year in MotoGP. Then he won the championship. Bagnaia was completely unimpressive for two years at Pramac, coming 15th and 16th in the championship. Then he came second at Ducati, and then won two championships.

Fabio Quartararo never scored a championship position higher than 10th in both Moto3 and Moto2, but his talent was spotted and he was given a position in MotoGP. The rest is history of course.

I think the situation is less clear than you describe, and there are clearly recent champions who needed time to show what they can do in MotoGP.

Click to expand...

I agree that the results show a disparity in performance of some between Moto 3 and 2, then the arrival on the big bikes.

Some who were not standouts in the junior classes take to the big bikes with great results (Fabs) and others who won one (or more, (the kiss of early retirement) Moto 2 championships go on to achieve mediocre results in the big class. Biaggi and Zarco come to mind.

Sure, Dovi won a few head to head encounters with Marquez. The thing that separates him from a real winner is that he never won when it really counted. Vinales is the new Dovi.

Yeah, it’s a brutal business.

Segfault said:

Rookies, take a note.
When KTM opens the door for you look at it carefully. It has EXIT written on it.
Not sure about Beast, but methinks 2025 may be the last season in MotoGP for Vinales.

Click to expand...

I think Mdub said it first, but KTM better make sure their rev limiter is working good.

I see this relationship going south, very quickly. Aprilia pandered to every one of Mavericks whims, babying him to make him feel welcome, because it was by far the best rider then available for their second bike. Tech 3, despite being a 'factory team', are second in line behind the true factory team and their new wunderkind (with good reason), so they will not have the same babying mentality.

For sure 2025 is when we will see the real Mav. Which one will it be?

Only thing I’m a bit concerned about the Ogura news is,

Ogura is a sideways rider, the Aprilia is not a sideways bike. The KTM would have been closer to his style.

Still, happy to have him in MotoGP. A welcome break from the Spaghetti/ Tapas duopoly.

Bern1 said:

For sure 2025 is when we will see the real Mav. Which one will it be?

Click to expand...

The one that wins the winter testing world championship.

Bern1 said:

For sure 2025 is when we will see the real Mav. Which one will it be?

Click to expand...

Depends. How often to the stars and planets line up perfectly in 2025?

#22 said:

Well, I didn't see this one coming if true:

https://www.motorsport.com/motogp/n...otogp-debut-with-trackhouse-in-2025/10638961/

Ai Ogura set to join TRACKHOUSE next yr. So I guess Nakagami gets to stay on another yr at LCR unless he retires, but then who has the right nationality to take that ride?

Click to expand...

This is awesome!

#22 said:

Current status with new potentials

Lenovo Ducati
Francesco Bagnaia
Marc Marquez

Red Bull KTM
Brad Binder
Pedro Acosta

Aprilia Racing
Jorge Martin
Marco Bezzechi

Repsol Honda
Joan Mir
Luca Marini

Monster Yamaha
Fabio Quartararo
Alex Rins

Red Bull KTM Tech 3
Enea Bastiannini
Maverick Vinales

Pramac Yamaha
Miguel Oliviera
Tony Arbolino?

VR46 Ducati
Fabio Digianantonio (Contracted directly to Ducati)
Franco Morbidelli?

Gresini Ducati
Alex Marquez
Femin Aldeguer?

Trackhouse Racing Aprilia
Raul Fernandez
Ai Ogura?

LCR Honda
Johann Zarco
Takaagi Nakagami?

Click to expand...

Since when is Arbolino rumored to move up? He hasn't done anything in Moto2 this year.

Bern1 said:

I agree that the results show a disparity in performance of some between Moto 3 and 2, then the arrival on the big bikes.

Some who were not standouts in the junior classes take to the big bikes with great results (Fabs) and others who won one (or more, (the kiss of early retirement) Moto 2 championships go on to achieve mediocre results in the big class. Biaggi and Zarco come to mind.

Sure, Dovi won a few head to head encounters with Marquez. The thing that separates him from a real winner is that he never won when it really counted. Vinales is the new Dovi.

Yeah, it’s a brutal business.

Click to expand...

I have a problem with KTM specifically. They get all the talent from the junior classes through the Red Bull thing, contractually oblige them to ride for their satellite team in motoGP, then dump them after a year. I don't recall Remy Gardner objecting, but Raul Fernandez definitely wanted to stay in moto 2. I am not sure how well the GasGas or whatever team is run, and I have strong doubts about the general quality of their bike, shared by Remy Gardner which didn't endear him to Pit Bierer, although I am not sure where Gardner thought he was going with that approach even if he was correct, perhaps the moto 2 title win and his father's name gave him an exalted idea about his status. I can't claim to have seen any evidence Gardner is a motoGP standard rider, but he is a rider who definitely needs a year to settle into a class, as his record including with Yamaha in WSBK shows, who btw seem to rate him somewhat, as presumably does Aki Ajo whom I think I read somewhere manages him now. As has been pointed out Bagnaia who is very likely to have what has traditionally been the seal of greatness, 3 title wins, required 2 years to get going in the premier class on what was likely a better bike than the KTM. Perhaps KTM's strategy has worked in that they now have a generational rider in Acosta, and they are obviously pulling out all stops to support him as they should, but he will walk if they don't improve their bike and will be in heavy demand.

On the other hand perhaps Aki Ajo who seems to run his teams very well has his riders operating at an advantage in the junior classes which leads to them being over-rated. He might well be happy where he is and have no further ambitions, but he looks very capable of running a premier class team to me.

#22 said:

I think Mdub said it first, but KTM better make sure their rev limiter is working good.

I see this relationship going south, very quickly. Aprilia pandered to every one of Mavericks whims, babying him to make him feel welcome, because it was by far the best rider then available for their second bike. Tech 3, despite being a 'factory team', are second in line behind the true factory team and their new wunderkind (with good reason), so they will not have the same babying mentality.

Click to expand...

The first consideration with any decision Maverick makes is that bad judgement is likely involved, but even he must realise he is coming to the end of his career and KTM likely have deeper pockets, particularly with Aprilia having to pay Martin whom I can't imagine came cheap. But if he left because the current Aprilia was built around Aleix Espargaro then he is going somewhere where at least 2 other riders, and maybe 3, will be prioritised over him, on a bike which might not be all that good period and which is likely less suited to his riding style than the Aprilia as it is. When he was given the full reins for the Yamaha factory team he didn't do anything overly impressive in any case, culminating in the over-revving incident to which you refer.

As has been said in previous discussions it is quite likely given their record everywhere else KTM will get to the top eventually, the question is how long it will take, and I doubt it will be on any timescale which involves Vinales, particularly given the current carbon fiber experiment. Meanwhile I strongly suspect that they will continue to ruthlessly discard riders, particularly rookies, as Segfault has posted.

JFM01 said:

Is there a law that says a Japanese rider is only allowed to compete on a Japanese bike?

Click to expand...

It certainly looks like that. There was a Japanese rider on the factory Aprilia that came 2nd in the 250cc class after a controversial last race

AnnoyingTwit said:

Dovi was the main challenger for Marquez for several years - I think it's unfair to say that he didn't achieve much. Marquez is arguably the GOAT, so coming second to Marquez isn't something unimpressive.

Joan Mir won Moto3, but wasn't impressive in Moto2, nor in his first year in MotoGP. Then he won the championship. Bagnaia was completely unimpressive for two years at Pramac, coming 15th and 16th in the championship. Then he came second at Ducati, and then won two championships.

Fabio Quartararo never scored a championship position higher than 10th in both Moto3 and Moto2, but his talent was spotted and he was given a position in MotoGP. The rest is history of course.

I think the situation is less clear than you describe, and there are clearly recent champions who needed time to show what they can do in MotoGP.

Click to expand...

Sometimes I wonder why a particular rider is chosen to join MotoGP then the outcome is different to what their Moto2 results would suggest

That's a really good outcome for Ogura, joining LCR would of resulted in an early retirement

Bern1 said:

I agree that the results show a disparity in performance of some between Moto 3 and 2, then the arrival on the big bikes.

Some who were not standouts in the junior classes take to the big bikes with great results (Fabs) and others who won one (or more, (the kiss of early retirement) Moto 2 championships go on to achieve mediocre results in the big class. Biaggi and Zarco come to mind.

Sure, Dovi won a few head to head encounters with Marquez. The thing that separates him from a real winner is that he never won when it really counted. Vinales is the new Dovi.

Yeah, it’s a brutal business.

Click to expand...

As long as Dovi had two wheels on his bike he was a tryer so hes poles apart from Vinales. Maverick needs all his ducks in line and a fair wind before he contemplates trying.

I've seen it said that Ogura moving to the MT Helmets team was already him moving out of the typical route for Japanese riders. And, going to Trackhouse, is an example of even more so.

I've also seen it said that Ogura didn't want to move to MotoGP until he had won the Moto2 championship. Hopefully this means he will remain motivated in Moto2 and fight tooth and nail.

I'm not able to observe and understand riding style sufficiently to predict which riders will thrive on which bikes. But, I hope the Aprilia works for him.

AnnoyingTwit said:

I'm not able to observe and understand riding style sufficiently to predict which riders will thrive on which bikes.

Click to expand...

This actually is a fascinating exercise that deserves its own discussion.

Admittedly, it’s not the easiest thing to do while watching a race on TV, especially if you’re emotionally invested. I watch the practice sessions for this purpose.

The things I usually look for are:

- Are the wheels in line while they corner (eg Lorenzo style) vs backing it into the corner (M. Marquez style)

- Do they hang off the bike more (which means they reduce the lean angle and use a fatter contact patch) like Martin or a more traditional body position like Rins

- The way the forks compress and release during cornering tells us how late a rider brakes, whether they do straight line braking or trail brake through the corners and if you look close enough, how much rear braking they use to unload the front.

- This one is not seen much in the age of aero and ride height devices, but some riders use fore and aft body positioning (eg M. Marquez, Quartararo) as a form of traction and wheelie control.

Just a few things I look for, I’m sure more experienced people spot even more things.

AnnoyingTwit said:

Dovi was the main challenger for Marquez for several years - I think it's unfair to say that he didn't achieve much. Marquez is arguably the GOAT, so coming second to Marquez isn't something unimpressive.

Joan Mir won Moto3, but wasn't impressive in Moto2, nor in his first year in MotoGP. Then he won the championship. Bagnaia was completely unimpressive for two years at Pramac, coming 15th and 16th in the championship. Then he came second at Ducati, and then won two championships.

Fabio Quartararo never scored a championship position higher than 10th in both Moto3 and Moto2, but his talent was spotted and he was given a position in MotoGP. The rest is history of course.

I think the situation is less clear than you describe, and there are clearly recent champions who needed time to show what they can do in MotoGP.

Click to expand...

Agree. During those two seasons where Dovi and Marquez were frequently duking it out, 7 seconds up the road from everyone else, Dovi was head and shoulders above everybody who wasn’t Marquez. And that was on The Ducati That Would Not Turn. Nobody else was seriously challenging Marquez with any regularity. And he was pretty damned impressive on the Honda as well, tho less so, mysteriously enough, when Pedrosa was fit to ride, at which time, Dovi suddenly seemed to suffer a notable top-speed deficiency.

There is another angle.
They say every bike has its own DNA. Only the most talented can adjust to any bike, most riders have limits in this regard.
For instance, in my imagination [which may be erroneous] KTM is more Honda-like, requires more forceful handling. If so then I see Vinales doomed on a KTM, in my book he is not that type of rider. Dovi was an example of the other kind, he was used to heavy handed riding and Yamaha remained complete mystery for him.

As much as I don’t want to take side on these things (growing up and all that), M. Marquez doing M. Marquez things?



Keep in mind that this is a Ducati organized event for the Ducatisti where the only rule is “DON’T FCUKING CRASH AND RUIN YOUR SEASON”

I've seen the replays on the Race of Champions footage, and the video in the previous post. I must admit that I'm not confident I know what happened in enough detail to know for sure.

Personally I would have thought that MM93 would have done better in this race overall. Whiile it's a non-championship perhaps 'fun' race, it's the first time that he and Bagnaia have been on track on identical bikes that I know of. And: advantage Bagnaia.