2024 Round 21 Valencian GP of Catalunya

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The battle to not be the biggest failure in motogp history is upon us. No matter who wins this season will be an epic failure for the loser. If Martin loses this points lead on the last weekend it would be nothing short of a disaster. Pecco losing the championship after being the 6th rider with 10 wins is a massive fail. 10 wins 8 dnf's won't get it done. Here are the numbers;

Martin Pecco
485 points 461
3 gp wins 10
7 sprint wins 6
7 poles 5
3 dnf's 8

I do wonder how Pecco is going to handle MM next season because there's no way he can win the title without consistency AND wins.

I don't Martin is going to lose this title battle, and assuming he stays upright, my hat will go off to him. I certainly made the claim he wouldn't win the title this season back after LeMans because I genuinely didn't think he was capable. But he's proven me wrong and I am fine with this. I just didn't expect Pecco to essentially throw the title away via inconsistency. I think back to a lot of moments leading up to this weekend's races, and I can't help but think for a double world champion, he's not a guy I would bet money on unless he's the only one with the current spec Ducati. But we do also need to see where the GP25 is relative to the GP24. I don't know if it will be as drastic a difference from the GP23 to the GP24, but hell at this point only Gigi has any real idea what the bike is capable of. Pirro talked a little bit about the GP25 from his testing of it, it sounds like it will be capable of braking even more deeply than the 24 currently can which is sort of crazy to think about. I think he said it will play to Pecco and Marc's braking ability. I have no doubt it will to Marc, but Pecco while getting run hard for a few laps in Malaysia hasn't really had many situations to be run hard from behind the way Marc likes to push guys.

As a fan, I hope Pecco loses this weekend just because while I appreciate his talent as a rider, I have heard enough of his season-long excuses for everything under the sun. He seems to have a built-in excuse machine for every time something goes opposite of how he is expecting and it's gotten tiresome. If he loses the title this weekend, I could see it being a nonstop bitch-fest from him about everything that went wrong over the course of the season. He better put on his big boy pants for next season.
 
Bagnaia certainly, in my opinion, needs to go up a step next season if he's to win. Unless Marquez returns to his crashing and injury ways. Which he might. I think it's possible that Bagnaia can take that step - as he's a rider that built slowly from a slow start. But, we'll see.

For this weekend, I wonder if the seven different tyre options could make the weekend more interesting. In that there might be more opportunity for riders to make right or wrong tyre decisions. Maybe.
 
Bagnaia certainly, in my opinion, needs to go up a step next season if he's to win. Unless Marquez returns to his crashing and injury ways. Which he might. I think it's possible that Bagnaia can take that step - as he's a rider that built slowly from a slow start. But, we'll see.

For this weekend, I wonder if the seven different tyre options could make the weekend more interesting. In that there might be more opportunity for riders to make right or wrong tyre decisions. Maybe.

What you see from Pecco is what you get.

Pecco crashes a lot. Some of it due to lack of spatial awareness, others due to...well who really knows with him honestly. But we all know his favorite type of crashing is drunken crashing into a ditch in Ibiza.

Sure Marc could crash and get injured, but that's not a risk limited to just him, that's every rider on the grid to be honest.

Pecco isn't going to be taking any steps. He needed to do it this season, and managed to choke away what could or even should have been an insurmountable points lead. His Portimao crash with Marc was a prime example of what a dolt he actually is on track. Then the Aragon crash with the younger Marquez was another one. If you let your title chances come down to the final race in the fashion he has done in spite of winning 10 races, that speaks volumes to larger problems. Likely one of the many reasons Ducati decided to jettison Martin in favor of Marquez. Marc has the consistency to win or settle for the points over the long haul of a GP season...plus he's motivated to a level that I think Pecco hasn't quite figured out just yet.
 
Bagnaia certainly, in my opinion, needs to go up a step next season if he's to win. Unless Marquez returns to his crashing and injury ways. Which he might. I think it's possible that Bagnaia can take that step - as he's a rider that built slowly from a slow start. But, we'll see.

For this weekend, I wonder if the seven different tyre options could make the weekend more interesting. In that there might be more opportunity for riders to make right or wrong tyre decisions. Maybe.
Methinks Marc suffering over-many crashes seems much less likely. In the Repsol days, he went to super-human lengths to out-ride the handling deficiencies of the bike. Next year, he'll be on identical machinery with identical support. He won't have to beat the bike. Just Pecco. Pecco may have the same bike, but I don't see him as having equal talent. Moreover, he just doesn't have Marc's killer instinct.
 
I don't see it as lay down misère for Marc yet. The aero, tyres and ride height have made front tyre traction loss more of a precipice even Marc struggles with. The Ducati has been designed as it is largely, or at least partially, to negate that advantage Marc had on being able to enter a corner faster than others and still come out the other side. Pecco is still very good. I put Marc ahead of him but Pecco knows the bike and the team better. He starts next year with an experince advantage on that bike and team and Marc has said as much. It will be interesting to watch.
Despite Pecco being associated with Rossi he hasn't indulged in the VR anti Marquez sentiment as openly as others so he is not as low in my opinion as some other riders who have. He definitely can ride but I'd love to see Marc get up, after what he has been through to get to that team.
 
Nicked from another forum
Martin will be World Champion after the Tissot Sprint if -
  • He wins
  • He finishes P2 and Bagnaia doesn’t win
  • He finishes P3 and Bagnaia doesn’t finish better than P5
  • He finishes P4 and Bagnaia doesn’t finish better than P6
  • He finishes P5 and Bagnaia doesn’t finish better than P7
  • He finishes P6 and Bagnaia doesn’t finish better than P8
  • He finishes P7 and Bagnaia doesn’t finish better than P9
  • He finishes P8 and Bagnaia fails to score any points
Or to make it simpler
Martin is world champion in the sprint if he;
  • Finishes 1st or 2nd in front of Bagnaia
  • Finishes 3rd to 8th 2 places in front of Bagnaia
 
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With all the maths, if say Marc is winning, then would Bastianini finish ahead of Bagnaia in the sprint if it means that Martin becomes champion then. Or will he let Bagnaia through or not pass him?
 
If there were to be even a hint of Marc seeming to back off and let Pecco through to give him the championship, the conspiracy nutters would be writing furiously about it for years.
But he won’t. His need to dominate is so ingrained.
 
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If Marc were to very obviously back off and let Pecco through to give him the championship, the conspiracy nutters would be writing furiously about it for years.
But he won’t. His need to dominate is so ingrained.
I think it might be more likely that Martin backs off to give Bagnaia the championship than Marc will. I.e. stupendously close to zero.
 
Marc’s still got his own business to take care of in securing 3rd place. Only 1 point to the good at the mo.
 
. His Portimao crash with Marc was a prime example of what a dolt he actually is on track. Then the Aragon crash with the younger Marquez was another one.
His Portimao crash to me, smelled like him wanting to assert dominance over Marc, and it backfiring. That is the issue really with todays generation, they haven't had the level of aggression (and by that I mean hard racing) that was peak in the mid 2010's with Lorenzo, Rossi, Marquez, Pedrosa and previously Stoner. Marc can race hard in his sleep but I don't think Pecco can.
Methinks Marc suffering over-many crashes seems much less likely. In the Repsol days, he went to super-human lengths to out-ride the handling deficiencies of the bike. Next year, he'll be on identical machinery with identical support. He won't have to beat the bike. Just Pecco. Pecco may have the same bike, but I don't see him as having equal talent. Moreover, he just doesn't have Marc's killer instinct.
Agreed, and the reality is he is only racing 1 bike next yr, that is Bagnaia. He will be on the best bike for the first time in nearly 10 years with very little competition in reality. It's his opportunity to lose imo.
I don't see it as lay down misère for Marc yet. The aero, tyres and ride height have made front tyre traction loss more of a precipice even Marc struggles with. The Ducati has been designed as it is largely, or at least partially, to negate that advantage Marc had on being able to enter a corner faster than others and still come out the other side. Pecco is still very good. I put Marc ahead of him but Pecco knows the bike and the team better. He starts next year with an experince advantage on that bike and team and Marc has said as much. It will be interesting to watch.
Despite Pecco being associated with Rossi he hasn't indulged in the VR anti Marquez sentiment as openly as others so he is not as low in my opinion as some other riders who have. He definitely can ride but I'd love to see Marc get up, after what he has been through to get to that team.
I think the key difference is going to be how they handle it. Pecco is known to be a slow burner over weekends while he and Ducati gather data. If Marc starts consistently putting the pressure on early in weekends and the season. Will Bagnaia step up?
 
And in 90% of those hard battles, he has come off 2nd best.

Nothing wrong with that. I liken his style more to that of Lorenzo. Get out front and kill people with metronomic consistency (easier now with tyre pressure issues with riders following).
 
Pecco has ridden hard against Marc, Enea, Martin, Fabio. What is missing is the consistency.

It might have to do with aero and tyres.

You simply cannot ride hard long enough.
One of Pecco's biggest strengths may also be his weakness. He is a demon on the brakes. A lot of his "I don't know what happened" crashes happen early into the corner under brakes. Those 8 dnf's could be a lot less if he was able to know when to and not to push the limits of braking.
 

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