Spies will beat Edwards and Tose at Valencia

This deserves to be here:

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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <div class='quotemain'>There Is No Comparison When It Comes to Ben Spies
by Austin Lindberg Contributor
(Photo by Bryn Lennon/Getty Images)
There were a lot of question marks when Ben Spies joined the Sterilgarda Yamaha Italia team for the first time in Portugal one year ago. Spies had spent his career with Suzuki, riding with the MotoGP team for three rounds in 2008 before signing for Yamaha Italia in World Superbike on the all new R1 in 2009.

Rizla Suzuki MotoGP team manager Paul Denning decided that Spies was not the answer for his struggling team. That opened the door to Spies negotiating with Gresini and Scot Honda teams to ride in MotoGP in 2009. Spies couldn't come to an agreement with either team over wages and opted for World Superbike with Yamaha.

There were many out there that thought when the only employers Spies had ever known turned him down, and his wages were deemed to be too excessive for a rookie, Spies was in it for the money and likely not MotoGP material. But when Spies began his World Superbike career in Australia earlier this year, he was about to prove the doubters wrong.

Spies went on to take 11 pole positions from 14 qualifying sessions and 14 race wins from 28 race starts on his way to becoming the 2009 World Superbike champion. The first rookie to become champion and the first World Superbike championship for Yamaha.

It had been rumored all year that Spies had signed with an intent to go to MotoGP with Yamaha in 2010 if he were to win the World Superbike championship or in 2011. In late September, it was revealed that Spies would move to the Monster Energy Tech 3 Yamaha team in 2010, championship or not.

There have been other World Superbike champions that have made to move to MotoGP. Colin Edwards, champion in 2000 and 2002 moved to the series in 2003 with Aprilia before moving to Honda and then Yamaha. Since, Edwards has accumulated 11 podium finishes, no wins and a best championship finish of fourth. Edwards will team with Spies at Monster Energy Tech 3 Yamaha in 2010.

Troy Bayliss won the title in 2001 and moved to MotoGP in 2003 with Ducati. Bayliss spent three seasons in MotoGP before moving back to World Superbikes. He stood on the podium five times and took one victory as a wildcard in the season finale at Valencia in 2006 and had a best championship finish of sixth.

Neil Hodgson won the title in 2003 and moved to MotoGP on a satellite Ducati in 2004 but only managed 17th in the championship before returning to Superbike racing in 2005.

The last World Superbike champion to move to MotoGP is 2004 and 2007 champion James Toseland. Toseland moved to MotoGP in 2008 with Tech 3 Yamaha where he's spent the past two seasons. Toseland finished 11th in the standings in 2008 with a best finish of sixth on multiple occasions. He wasn't able to replicate that success in 2009 and currently lies 14th in the championship. Toseland will trade places with Spies for 2010.

World Superbike champions don't have a history of success in MotoGP, but those riders haven't overpowered the World Superbike series the way Spies has.

Toseland won 16 races from 166 starts, a 10 percent win rate. Edwards won 30 from 186 starts, a 16 percent win rate. Hodgson won 14 from 75 starts, a 19 percent win rate. Bayliss was statistically the most successful in the group winning 22 races from 77 starts, a 29 percent win rate. None of them come close to what Spies accomplished. Spies won 14 races from 28 starts, 50 percent win rate.

Just like a year ago, there are questions about whether or not Spies will be successful in his new endeavor. No World Superbike rider has proven to be a world championship contender in MotoGP. Then again, there's never been a World Superbike rider quite like Ben Spies.

Yes, that "Austin".

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Mick D @ Oct 28 2009, 02:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'> 22 did not mean to dis you or your friend... My opinion is that CE's "Software Engineer" (how can a "Software Engineer" not be a computer geek exactly?) has some inherent biases and is not the most objective source.

Oh no offence taken! I know what you mean though, its six of one and half a dozen of the other. Though he is a fairly level headed guy and isn't all 'pro colin', I guess time will tell if he's right.

I'm still trying to work out how a software engineer isn't a geek....

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jumkie @ Oct 28 2009, 04:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>This deserves to be here:

LINK



Yes, that "Austin".


Good article.
Spies is an awsome rider, no doubt and I think he will give many in MotoGP a shake, but I still think he will be in the second pack, and still will not challenge the current 4 frontrunners. He might get a podium or two, but will be fighting with Edwards, Hayden, Melandri, Simoncelli, and Dovi, when something happens to the guys at the front.

Wonder how Spies would have gone against Bayliss on the Duc. Might have been a tougher champioship for him.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Nuts @ Oct 27 2009, 09:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>OK, aside from Edwards and Toseland,
Will Spies beat Hayden ????
Will Spies beat Melandri ????
Will Spies beat Kalio ????
Will Spies beat De Angelis or Dovi ????
Will Spies beat Loris ????

For me, if BS ends up top 10, he has done very well. Lets be realistic.
He will of course be busting his ... for a good result, and probably the risk is that he will bin it trying, but if he lays down some fast laps, or qualifies well, and then bins it trying, it will be a good showing.
I am guessing he will finish about 9th - 10th around Melandri, Elias, CV, De Pun (if he races).

I am also really interested to see how he goes against Simoncelli next year.
I think Simoncelli will be get full factory spec gear from Honda, and has the potential to be a front runner. I think he will be fast tracked into the Repsol team pronto to replace Dovi.

1. close
2. yes
3. yes
4 yes and yes
5. yes

(not for valencia but next year)

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (#22 @ Oct 28 2009, 09:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I'm still trying to work out how a software engineer isn't a geek....

I suppose the answer is lifestyle.

By that I mean, do computers and software rule his very life, are they the reason he gets up in the morning etc etc, or does he have a life outside of the computer software world?

If he is the type who works with computers/software all day, comes home and does the same all night, lives, eats, sleeps and breathes computer software, than yeah you could say he is a geek.

But, if he works with the computers and software, but has interests outside of the computer world and basically does not allow the computer to rule his very existence, than he is not necessarily a geek.

Now, all the above are my definitions only - and that is the way I would look at it





Gaz

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (PASSI @ Oct 28 2009, 09:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>1. close
2. yes
3. yes
4 yes and yes
5. yes

(not for valencia but next year)
Pretty much as I see it for next year depending on the character and speed of the gp 10 ducati.

In answer to your earlier query I have not seen anything directly attributable to say spies will have a better spec bike than edwards but my understanding is that he is the yamaha signed guy next year as edwards has been up till now whilst edwards will be contracted to tech 3 so widespread speculation that this will be the case does not seem unreasonable.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <div class='quotemain'>I suppose the answer is lifestyle.

By that I mean, do computers and software rule his very life, aret hey the reason he gets up in the morning etc etc, or does he have a life outside of the computer software world?

If he is the type who works with computers/software all day, comes home and doest he same all night, lives, eats, sleeps and breathes computer software, than yeah you could say he is a geek.

But, if he works with the computers and software, but has interests outside of the computer world and basically does not allow the computer to rule his very existence, than he is not necessarily a geek.

Now, all the above are my definitions only - and that is the way I woudl look at it


In that case, he most definately is not!

I don't think Ben can catch Colin. We'll see how it goes vs Toselannd, I'd say maybe Ben will beat James but it will be close.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Noodlerizer @ Oct 29 2009, 10:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>If Spies can't be broken then we might see the best American in a very very long time.

The rookie rule kinda messes the chances of this up, I mean consigned to a year at least on a "seconds" team/bike/mods./parts/money will be hard.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Oct 29 2009, 12:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>The rookie rule kinda messes the chances of this up, I mean consigned to a year at least on a "seconds" team/bike/mods./parts/money will be hard.
Which is the very reason i will be comparing him to Simonchelli and bautista

Spies is not the second coming.. I am American and I cheered for him all season. I am not going to put to much into this wildcard ride. He will ride well. He will beat Toseland. He will mix it up with the second pack but that is about it.

Next season it will be tough. He may not be the best rookie if Simoncelli gets a good bike, if not he wins rookie of the year hands down.

Podium: Are you guys serious? Stoner, Rossi, Lorenzo, Pedrosa. Barring injury how many times did these guys dominate the proceedings. DePuniet and Dovisioso are experienced and mad fast. I don't see Spies overcoming the best of the rest. I see him fighting with mid pack them.

Those Spies statistics are pretty impressive! Add to that he was not familiar with most tracks
While it will be impossible for him to replicate those percentages in MotoGP, certainly he deserves to be watched closely. He may not be in the top 4 at the beginning, but could be a good 5th... and improve in his second year.

All very interesting, it could have been said 12 months ago (and now doubt was) that Spies was only going to be a mid-pack runner in WSBK, against the likes of Haga, Fabriz, Biaggi, Nachercennererer, Checa and so on......

Will be interesting to see what shape his M1 is in next year, I suggest he will gain greater support from the triple tuning fork and dorna, to try to breathe some more life into VR's competition, maybe Yamaha is not content with just 1st and 2nd, HRC certainly wasn't in the mid-late nineties.....

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Talpa @ Oct 30 2009, 06:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>All very interesting, it could have been said 12 months ago (and now doubt was) that Spies was only going to be a mid-pack runner in WSBK, against the likes of Haga, Fabriz, Biaggi, Nachercennererer, Checa and so on......
Or less than 10 months ago... How 'bout these predictions from some stalwart members from the good ol' USA:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jumkie @ Feb 10 2009, 02:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>...something tells me it will be Haga and the Brits. Spies, though fast has way too much to learn. The tracks for one will be the greatest challenge. I say Spies will be up there but more like top 5.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bootsakah @ Feb 10 2009, 03:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>In regards to Spies, ...I think a top 5 overall in his first year would be outstanding.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jumkie @ Feb 10 2009, 11:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Think he'll do well enough to impress the reasonable person, but its a bit much to expect him to win a championship against season vets who know the tracks and circus very well. This is a very competitive series. We know who the winners were last year, but on any given race weekend it could have just as easily been two or three other guys (who only came tenths from the winner). Learning the tracks is gonna be his major obstacle.

Spies will be up there, but I don't see how his talent can overcome the experience of the vets who already where challenging for wins against the likes of Bayliss.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (SackWack @ Feb 11 2009, 02:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Top Five for me

As named before there are about 10-12 possible race winners so if he can come out top 5 of those then that would be a feat in itself.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (frosty58 @ Feb 11 2009, 06:23 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>spies winning the championship this season is a strech. he's got a lot of new stuff to get used too. new tracks new team new bike alot of flying & alot more competition than just one other guy. top 5 would be excellent & i think he's capable in season 1.

Spies will not beat Colin at Valencia, and i hope JT finishes in front of Spies just to make a point.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Noodlerizer @ Oct 29 2009, 10:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I think the most overlooked attribute of Spies is his Mentality. He gets it done and so far nothing can get into his head. That is the key to being successful in MotoGP. Toseland for sure cracks under pressure. Hayden held it together for one season, but his riding style makes it hard for him to ride 800s. Edwards let a lot get into his head. If Spies can't be broken then we might see the best American in a very very long time.


He will have to win 2 world championships because Nicki did win one in 2006.

I think against the "aliens" as Edwards calls them (Rossi, Stoner Lorenzo, Pedro) he will really have his work cut out for him + next year will see Simoncelli, Aoyama, Bautista as well.

I like the guy but he will battle for 5th.

New tires, new bike new guys to race agains't. Too much to learn in such a short time.
The one thing I see about Spies is that is one of the smartest riders out there. He reminds me of Bayliss in that aspect. He's never impulsive and always calculating in his race management. I think patience is a virtue that very few (Italian) racers possess but he has in plenty.

The more interesting stat to me will not be where he places in the race but what will his lap times be the last 5 laps of the race. He's always fastest near the end and if I remember in his previous initial wildcards he took a while to settle in but in the end he was running some pretty respectable lap times

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (JohnnyKnockdown @ Oct 31 2009, 02:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>New tires, new bike new guys to race agains't. Too much to learn in such a short time.
The one thing I see about Spies is that is one of the smartest riders out there. He reminds me of Bayliss in that aspect. He's never impulsive and always calculating in his race management. I think patience is a virtue that very few (Italian) racers possess but he has in plenty.

The more interesting stat to me will not be where he places in the race but what will his lap times be the last 5 laps of the race. He's always fastest near the end and if I remember in his previous initial wildcards he took a while to settle in but in the end he was running some pretty respectable lap times

Jeez... where I have I heard those sentiments before? Oh yeah, now I remember. It was
with reference to Spies' chances of any success in WSBK in his rookie year. Factor in his now
having had experience of some of the tracks for MotoGP and then factor in his not-too-shabby
results in his three wildcard rides (having never been to Europe) on the piss-poor Suzuki, and you might at least be more open-minded to the possibility that the Texan will shine in his first year. Not making any predictions mind you... But no-one could have predicted that the Crashey Stoner of 2006
would kick ... in 2007 on the lame Ducati. I say, keep an open mind. That's all.