It would be extremely hasty to write off Valentino so quickly. His shoulder is the big problem it seems; he expressed himself to be quite satisfied with the Ducati. Vale himself indicated that he is losing 1 second in two hard braking zones alone. He also pointed out that he's losing half a second from not being able to tuck in down the straight.
I've been watching GP racing for many years...I haven't forgotten all the astonishing rides he's put in over the past 15 years. Do not write him off!
Nicky seems to be a bit slow out of the gates, which is disappointing compared to his preseason results last year. However, he usually takes a bit longer to adapt to(and evaluate) changes. On the positive, Nicky and Valentino were quite consistent in their feedback at Valencia, so it seems that the direction in which Valentino and JB are taking the bike will be quite beneficial for Nicky too.
Casey is obviously in a very good position. This was expected after his excellent debut at Valencia on the Honda. Honda, generally, is in an strong position. They clearly have developed a fast, reliable and refined motorcycle. The evidence of this is is perhaps most apparent by considering the performances of Simoncelli and Aoyama.
Lorenzo and Spies are where everyone expected, at the pointy end. No surprises there, the existing package has been dominant for the past three years. Spies will battle for wins this year and Lorenzo will battle for the title.
