LeMans - Rnd 5 2015 - SPOILERS (Predictions, FP, QP & Race)

levigarrett · May 21, 2015

There have been countless pieces written about Stoner's Ducati being a terrible machine. Just ask Melandri et al. I'm not going to hash this out again here. Everyone is entitled to their views on the matter and no amount of discourse will change that.

On to Mugello!

MigsAngel · May 22, 2015

Okay...so then lets consider Krops article....

Is the Honda the 3rd best bike on the grid at the moment?

And why?

I think the Honda is 2nd best at worse....and equal the Yamaha at best.....
and that is because the bike is being developed with MM and now again Dani's input...
The Ducati is 3rd best bike....take away the softer qualifying tyres and you see the Duc just ahead of the Suzuki's....

Will the Duc go well at Mugello?
Of course....they tested there a couple of weeks ago....as part of their concessions they get to run these extra private tests.....

Gaz · May 22, 2015

IMO only of course

The Yamaha is clearly the best for my way of thinking as it is easily the most stable of the bikes under acceleration, braking and the all important cornering as it suits the two riders and allows their carrying greater corner speed.

As for second, far closer and personally I cannot truthfully answer as really the Ducati and Honda only have the one rider consistently up in the top few (Dovi and MM). Although to be fair, Ducati #2 has done quite well and shown promise he cannot really be compared to Aoyama. It would be a fairer comparison once Pedrosa returns to full fitness as to me then we shall see 4 results from which to judge.

That all said, the Ducati drives well from corners and looks far more stable than does the Honda, but the Honda has in years past rewarded the more aggressive style so the fact is is unstable does not make it unrideable.

Again though, the tyres are critical to the equation and at this stage they seem to be far more suitable to the Yamaha bikes and riding styles with (being fair) Ducati seemingly getting the next best from them. But again, they have two riders from which to judge whilst Honda realistically have Marquez whose style is right at the edge of aggression anyway so what is tyres versus what is Marquez is somewhat open for discussion

Now in this I have concentrated on full factory riders only as the other factory bikes and riders may or may not be on truly equal equipment and setup options.

rotondas · May 22, 2015

I think that Dovi whith an Honda or Yamaha wouldn't have been so close.

But also the Ducati is a youger bike and maybe is a handicap for his riders at some tracks.

J4rn0 · May 22, 2015

Gaz said:
No way J4, Dovi's results are all down to the speed of the Ducati.

Remember 2007 ????

Welcome to read (or re-read) what I was posting here in 2007...

J4rn0 · May 22, 2015

levigarrett said:
There have been countless pieces written about Stoner's Ducati being a terrible machine. Just ask Melandri et al. I'm not going to hash this out again here. Everyone is entitled to their views on the matter and no amount of discourse will change that.

On to Mugello!

Depends on which of Stoner's Ducatis you are referring to...
The 2007 Ducati wasnt' terrible at all: it clearly had some competitive advantages (superior power, maturing Bridgestone tires) that a great instinctive rider like Stoner could exploit. Other great riders had more trouble exploiting those potentialities, like Capirossi or Barros (who nevertheless managed to beat Stoner a couple of times on the same machinery that year). So the bike was difficult, but capable.

What we observed in subsequent years was that while Stoner kept winning races, he could not win another title as the competition caught up in terms of engine power and got Bridgestone tires as well (so, these factors were important!); at the same time the gap between him and his Ducati teammates kept expanding -- one could say, the more the bike was developed (or not developed) with him as the reference point, the more he was the only rider who could effectively ride it.

He's the kind of talent that covers up the problems of a bike, precisely because he can ride over them.

Now, Dovi was a very important (and underestimated) factor in developing the Honda that became the "best bike" in the hands of Stoner and Marquez; now he's been the key if the new development at Ducati. Whereas Honda, after two years of using Stoner as a test rider, has run into problems.

This said, probably a fit Stoner could already win races on the current Ducati as it is now, while Dovi is still waiting for that "something more" to come from the bike.

Gaz · May 22, 2015

J4rn0 said:
Welcome to read (or re-read) what I was posting here in 2007...

Not suggesting you were the one (or one of those) putting it all down to speed but as you will recall, there was a very very large contingent of forum members who put all the success down to the outright straight line speed at the time.

Done need to re-read as I remember your points well, after all, we often agreed

michaelm · May 25, 2015

J4rn0 said:
Depends on which of Stoner's Ducatis you are referring to...
The 2007 Ducati wasnt' terrible at all: it clearly had some competitive advantages (superior power, maturing Bridgestone tires) that a great instinctive rider like Stoner could exploit. Other great riders had more trouble exploiting those potentialities, like Capirossi or Barros (who nevertheless managed to beat Stoner a couple of times on the same machinery that year). So the bike was difficult, but capable.

What we observed in subsequent years was that while Stoner kept winning races, he could not win another title as the competition caught up in terms of engine power and got Bridgestone tires as well (so, these factors were important!); at the same time the gap between him and his Ducati teammates kept expanding -- one could say, the more the bike was developed (or not developed) with him as the reference point, the more he was the only rider who could effectively ride it.

He's the kind of talent that covers up the problems of a bike, precisely because he can ride over them.

Now, Dovi was a very important (and underestimated) factor in developing the Honda that became the "best bike" in the hands of Stoner and Marquez; now he's been the key if the new development at Ducati. Whereas Honda, after two years of using Stoner as a test rider, has run into problems.

This said, probably a fit Stoner could already win races on the current Ducati as it is now, while Dovi is still waiting for that "something more" to come from the bike.

Have always enjoyed and respected your posts J4rno, then and now, and often agree with you but my perspective, like Gaz's, in regard to some of these matters is different, if not necessarily more correct.

Barros finished on the podium ahead of Stoner in one race in 2007 when he (correctly) went against Bridgestone's advice and the tyre choice of every other Bridgestone runner including Stoner, and good luck and credit to him for that choice and performance on a Pramac D' Antin (I do stress D'Antin)at a time when by Stoner's own testimony the Ducati factory team couldn't provide him with a second bike the same as his first bike. Stoner couldn't, or didn't anyway, win in the dry on the soft Bridgestone tyre that year, but was also the only Bridgestone rider able to get the "hard" Bridgestone tyre on which he was so dominant to work. It does seem likely Valentino would have benefited from that tyre had it been available to him in 2007, but being a factory Yamaha and/or Honda rider on Michelins had not exactly been a disadvantage to him previously.

Particular credit to Ducati for 2007 whoever was riding their bike, it is remarkable that they could win a championship against Honda and Yamaha with an operation not much bigger than Kenny Roberts' equipe, however well sponsored.

Very happy to see Ducati near the front again, and credit to Dovi and particularly Dall'Igna for designing/developing a bike which is competitive and apparently rideable, but it is not imo 2007 again till they no longer have any rule concessions. I am hopeful the removal of the engine and fuel concessions won't have much effect, the desmo gear may actually give some fuel economy advantage and they have always built good engines and hopefully won't have durability problems with a lesser number of engines.

J4rn0 · May 26, 2015

michaelm said:
Have always enjoyed and respected your posts J4rno, then and now, and often agree with you but my perspective, like Gaz's, in regard to some of these matters is different, if not necessarily more correct.

Barros finished on the podium ahead of Stoner in one race in 2007 when he (correctly) went against Bridgestone's advice and the tyre choice of every other Bridgestone runner including Stoner, and good luck and credit to him for that choice and performance on a Pramac D' Antin (I do stress D'Antin)at a time when by Stoner's own testimony the Ducati factory team couldn't provide him with a second bike the same as his first bike. Stoner couldn't, or didn't anyway, win in the dry on the soft Bridgestone tyre that year, but was also the only Bridgestone rider able to get the "hard" Bridgestone tyre on which he was so dominant to work. It does seem likely Valentino would have benefited from that tyre had it been available to him in 2007, but being a factory Yamaha and/or Honda rider on Michelins had not exactly been a disadvantage to him previously.

Particular credit to Ducati for 2007 whoever was riding their bike, it is remarkable that they could win a championship against Honda and Yamaha with an operation not much bigger than Kenny Roberts' equipe, however well sponsored.

Very happy to see Ducati near the front again, and credit to Dovi and particularly Dall'Igna for designing/developing a bike which is competitive and apparently rideable, but it is not imo 2007 again till they no longer have any rule concessions. I am hopeful the removal of the engine and fuel concessions won't have much effect, the desmo gear may actually give some fuel economy advantage and they have always built good engines and hopefully won't have durability problems with a lesser number of engines.

It's a pleasure Michael, an my respect for you and Gaz (and others here) is the same.

Barros denied a podium to Stoner at Mugello 2007 because of a better tire choice -- that's right, but that nevertheless means that Barros beat Stoner in that race. Tire choice is made mainly by ther rider, who is not obliged to follow the manufacturer's (or even the team's) advice.

Capirossi beat everybody at Motegi that year, -- thanks to a good timing in changing bikes after the rain, no doubt, but again Stoner couldn't do better than 6th on the same bike. These were exceptions, but the fact that such exceptions didn't happen again in the following years says that the 2007 Ducati was a strong bike, certainly difficult to ride to the limit (also because of the peaky character of its screamer engine about which Capirossi complained) but it didn't have any oversteering, for example.

I think the difference between Ducati and Honda/Yamaha now is mainly in the riders -- I hope Dovi and Iannone prove me wrong, possibly next weekend, but I can't help thinking that Marquez, Stoner or Rossi would have already won a race on this Ducati.

The concessions help a lot for the development and testing, imo, but do not magically increase the speed during a race weekend -- nobody has fuel limitations in QP and while the extra soft helps in quali, the lack of the extra hard option can be a handicap during the race when it's hot, as it was in Argentina.

michaelm · May 26, 2015

J4rn0 said:
It's a pleasure Michael, an my respect for you and Gaz (and others here) is the same.

Barros denied a podium to Stoner at Mugello 2007 because of a better tire choice -- that's right, but that nevertheless means that Barros beat Stoner in that race. Tire choice is made mainly by ther rider, who is not obliged to follow the manufacturer's (or even the team's) advice.

Capirossi beat everybody at Motegi that year, -- thanks to a good timing in changing bikes after the rain, no doubt, but again Stoner couldn't do better than 6th on the same bike. These were exceptions, but the fact that such exceptions didn't happen again in the following years says that the 2007 Ducati was a strong bike, certainly difficult to ride to the limit (also because of the peaky character of its screamer engine about which Capirossi complained) but it didn't have any oversteering, for example.

I think the difference between Ducati and Honda/Yamaha now is mainly in the riders -- I hope Dovi and Iannone prove me wrong, possibly next weekend, but I can't help thinking that Marquez, Stoner or Rossi would have already won a race on this Ducati.

The concessions help a lot for the development and testing, imo, but do not magically increase the speed during a race weekend -- nobody has fuel limitations in QP and while the extra soft helps in quali, the lack of the extra hard option can be a handicap during the race when it's hot, as it was in Argentina.

I basically agree with you about the concessions, the unavailability of the hard tyre has worked against Ducati in some races, and I expect Ducati/Audi/ Gigi are preparing for success rather than failure, and hence not reliant on excessive engine tune or the extra fuel in race trim with the current concessions, and doubt they will be hampered much by going back to 5 engines or less fuel, particularly since the fuel limit goes up next year. I have lost track of what electronics Honda and Yamaha are allowed to run next year.

Keshav · May 26, 2015

MotoChick said:
So you defenition of proper placement is every post?

22. Are you married to a wookie?

Keshav. if an American Indian shagged someone from India would the baby be a smelly Indian or a drunk Indian, or a smelly drunk indian, or a smelly, drunk, terrorist, indian that hates Israel?

He'd be a writer for The Daily Show.

Rossi_fan · May 29, 2015

shovelhead said:
I will be in Barcelona in June,
I will personally ask him and report.
But I can attest that all the charity auction items I received from tech3 and had him sign,
He always signs Polyccio.

I'm coming from Toronto to Barcelona. Do you think you can get me a tour of a box or something? For a fellow Canadian?

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LeMans - Rnd 5 2015 - SPOILERS (Predictions, FP, QP & Race)

levigarrett

MigsAngel

Gaz

rotondas

J4rn0

J4rn0

Gaz

michaelm

J4rn0

michaelm

Keshav

Rossi_fan

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