How will Marc Marquez do in 2024?

mikesbytes said:

Great math's thanks for doing that. While the field is a tad closer in 2023 to 2019 its close enough to compare mathematically and its showing that Marc was more consistent than Pecco on race day. One could debate about there being twice as many races but that would probably make the math's even more accurate as there's twice the number of samples or we could say 1.5 times the samples as the sprint is half points.

2019 and prior Marc would do a lot of crashes in practice finding the limit and then not crash during the race. Other riders would find that they needed to find a bit more during the race sometimes resulting in race crashes that Marc avoided with his strategy.

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The question for me is whether the aero bikes do just crash capriciously on occasion as some including Bagnaia and Martin have claimed, in which case even MM may not be able to explore and find a limit which can be relied upon.

Good point MM. The great thing now is we are going to see Marquez on a decent aero bike so that question will be answered. Alex M was the 3rd (I think) highest crasher of 2023 so I don't think Marc is suddenly going to drop to a much lower crash rate.

What is encouraging is his feedback after the test, saying it was easy to find the limit (even in the cold weather) and that consistency was the next task. From the videos in the pit garage, he said the the front was pushing a bit on corner entry but also on throttle when leaned over, so it seems to indicate that he is getting good feedback from the front end, something the Honda hasn't given anyone in a long time.

#22 said:

Good point MM. The great thing now is we are going to see Marquez on a decent aero bike so that question will be answered. Alex M was the 3rd (I think) highest crasher of 2023 so I don't think Marc is suddenly going to drop to a much lower crash rate.

What is encouraging is his feedback after the test, saying it was easy to find the limit (even in the cold weather) and that consistency was the next task. From the videos in the pit garage, he said the the front was pushing a bit on corner entry but also on throttle when leaned over, so it seems to indicate that he is getting good feedback from the front end, something the Honda hasn't given anyone in a long time.

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Sure,

I tend to blame rider error for the Ducati crashes myself, and even semi-official Ducati sources are placing great weight on MM’s smile after testing the Ducati as it would seem are the bookmakers. I guess as has been discussed the whole point of the Ducati aero was to enable non-MM riders to do something like what he had done with front for his whole career without aero. Apparently there was something of a deficiency on turn in together with advantages in regard to the 2023 bike vs the 2022 bike which Bezzecchi discussed as well after the post-season test. I doubt this is something which will hamper MM at all. It was reported MM wasn’t really pushing to find the limit in the post season test, and I didn’t see anything about him crashing overly. If he retains the ability to be a second faster than anyone else, which he did on that horrible Honda vs other riders of former repute riding the thing, then the new Ducati will need to be potentially a second faster than the old bike, and consistency will apply as you have been saying. Most of us have seen parallels with Stoner getting on the Honda and immediately being faster than a very good rider in Dani Pedrosa, and MM like may well still have a significant advantage even on a good bike as Soner did on the Honda as well. I still remember the 2014 season.

Assuming that crashing capriciously is the same on the 2024 Ducati vs the 2023 Ducati then it over the season it will balance it out if Marc's main competitor(s) is on a Ducati. I'm going to guess that this is not going to be a significant factor.

Looks like it was a busy PR day

Sounds like Fonsi Nieto is a little scared.

Warning for Marc Marquez after fast test debut: “The others were not motivated…”

Absolute bollocks frankly. Firstly. Marc has already stated that he was not pushing because he only had 1 bike and wanted to get as much track time as possible.
Secondly, for those who don't know, Nieto is Jorge Martin's rider coach, the same guys who crashed twice at the Valencia test, including destroying his 2024 prototype. So for him to say the following is hilarious:

“I'll also tell you something else: Marc gave the one hundred percent he had in that testing session, after everything that has happened and with the accumulated anger.

“And I can tell you that many of the others were looking at the clock and asking for the time, because after a whole championship, getting back on the bike on a Monday, on practically the same bike...

“They were not motivated to the maximum.

So is he saying that Jorge Martin was not motivated to assess the bike that he hopes will win the 2024 title for him?!

When I look at how Marquez, Bagnaia and Martin went about their respective programs in Valencia. Martin is the LEAST likely of the 3 to win the title and I'd argue that given he crashed 2 bikes, it is HE who gave the one hundred percent of everything he had, not Marquez.

Gresini boss clarifies precise Marc Marquez target for 2024

Gresini boss clarifies precise Marc Marquez target for 2024

"“We want to be at least among the top five in the rankings, yes."

#22 said:

Sounds like Fonsi Nieto is a little scared.

Warning for Marc Marquez after fast test debut: “The others were not motivated…”

Absolute bollocks frankly. Firstly. Marc has already stated that he was not pushing because he only had 1 bike and wanted to get as much track time as possible.
Secondly, for those who don't know, Nieto is Jorge Martin's rider coach, the same guys who crashed twice at the Valencia test, including destroying his 2024 prototype. So for him to say the following is hilarious:

“I'll also tell you something else: Marc gave the one hundred percent he had in that testing session, after everything that has happened and with the accumulated anger.

“And I can tell you that many of the others were looking at the clock and asking for the time, because after a whole championship, getting back on the bike on a Monday, on practically the same bike...

“They were not motivated to the maximum.

So is he saying that Jorge Martin was not motivated to assess the bike that he hopes will win the 2024 title for him?!

When I look at how Marquez, Bagnaia and Martin went about their respective programs in Valencia. Martin is the LEAST likely of the 3 to win the title and I'd argue that given he crashed 2 bikes, it is HE who gave the one hundred percent of everything he had, not Marquez.

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Saw that as well and had the same reaction.

Whatever anyone thinks of MM you won’t be hearing anything like this from him or his camp. He does what he does and is fairly straightforward in his public utterances. This is so much the case thatI most of the post Jerez test discussion concerning MM probably including this reaction from Nieto is based on a smile being observed when he took off his helmet rather than anything he has said. Rather amusing, and probably amusing for MM as well.

MM has made a career out of being impervious to off-track mind games, not playing them. He made a serious error in more ways than one when he crashed and fractured his humerus trying to prove something to FQ unnecessarily, but was at least attempting to make his point on track as he always has done rather than saying anything about FQ off-track.

michaelm said:

Whatever anyone thinks of MM you won’t be hearing anything like this from him or his camp. He does what he does and is fairly straightforward in his public utterances.

MM has made a career out of being impervious to off-track mind games, not playing them.

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I would say that Marc Marquez, in addition to being a phenomal racer, is a grandmaster at the off track mind games. He is very subtle. He has learned from Rossi what not to do when playing. Fascinating to watch and listen to when he engages in this stuff.

The only way he won’t be in the top 5 will be injury even if the 2024 bikes are a big step over 2023 bikes

Bern1 said:

I would say that Marc Marquez, in addition to being a phenomal racer, is a grandmaster at the off track mind games. He is very subtle. He has learned from Rossi what not to do when playing. Fascinating to watch and listen to when he engages in this stuff.

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Perhaps oddly I guess I substantially agree with you.

If you are really good (and obviously smart) as MM is telling the absolute truth somewhat selectively is a brilliant tactic. I have no doubt what he said about his own performance at the Jerez test was absolutely true, that he didn’t explore the limits as far as he usually does because he only had the one bike to work with. His career long modus operandi has indeed been to test the limits in practice and qualifying, and he definitely only had the one bike. Did he anticipate a response from the camps of other riders such as this one from Nieto ?. Quite possibly.

What he doesn’t do is incite hatred of other riders or usually even discuss the performance of other riders. He is never going to be revealed as someone who uses elements of his fanbase as a weapon against other riders because he doesn’t do so. Perhaps this is because he doesn’t have nearly the fanbase Rossi had or a fanbase that is like Rossi’s, but it doesn’t seem to be his style anyway. During his contretemps with Rossi he did say that Rossi used his fanbase as a weapon against other riders, which was absolutely true imo obviously and also something many on here had already realised, if belatedly in my case. The one thing I recall from his camp during said contretemps was from his crew chief saying that in their view Rossi had deliberately caused MM to crash at the Argentina 2015 race, again very selective.

I have followed the sport since the mid 1980s and MM is not on my all time favorite rider list, which is headed by Casey Stoner in his pomp for actual riding, closely followed by Mick Doohan, quite likely partly for reasons of petty nationalism although I also strongly admired the great American golden age riders and Jorge Lorenzo, and was a Hayden fan.

I do agree with you that MM has at times pushed it too far on track with too little regard for the safety of other riders particularly early in his career. I became a fan largely because of how he stood up to Valentino and the Valeban. If you look at things a certain way as you do he is indeed a master of mind games because he totally destroyed the reputed master of mind games, with the events of 2015 continuing to rankle with Rossi who will very likely go to his grave still holding, and indeed close to being obssessed by, the belief that MM stole the 2015 title from him, while MM moved on to win a further 3 titles.

I don’t think Rossi had any necessity for his fabled mind games btw, his quality and performance as a rider were more than sufficient to intimidate other riders without inciting the Valeban or employing the media.

michaelm said:

Perhaps oddly I guess I substantially agree with you.

If you are really good (and obviously smart) as MM is telling the absolute truth somewhat selectively is a brilliant tactic. I have no doubt what he said about his own performance at the Jerez test was absolutely true, that he didn’t explore the limits as far as he usually does because he only had the one bike to work with. His career long modus operandi has indeed been to test the limits in practice and qualifying, and he definitely only had the one bike. Did he anticipate a response from the camps of other riders such as this one from Nieto ?. Quite possibly.

What he doesn’t do is incite hatred of other riders or usually even discuss the performance of other riders. He is never going to be revealed as someone who uses elements of his fanbase as a weapon against other riders because he doesn’t do so. Perhaps this is because he doesn’t have nearly the fanbase Rossi had or a fanbase that is like Rossi’s, but it doesn’t seem to be his style anyway. During his contretemps with Rossi he did say that Rossi used his fanbase as a weapon against other riders, which was absolutely true imo obviously and also something many on here had already realised, if belatedly in my case. The one thing I recall from his camp during said contretemps was from his crew chief saying that in their view Rossi had deliberately caused MM to crash at the Argentina 2015 race, again very selective.

I have followed the sport since the mid 1980s and MM is not on my all time favorite rider list, which is headed by Casey Stoner in his pomp for actual riding, closely followed by Mick Doohan, quite likely partly for reasons of petty nationalism although I also strongly admired the great American golden age riders and Jorge Lorenzo, and was a Hayden fan.

I do agree with you that MM has at times pushed it too far on track with too little regard for the safety of other riders particularly early in his career. I became a fan largely because of how he stood up to Valentino and the Valeban. If you look at things a certain way as you do he is indeed a master of mind games because he totally destroyed the reputed master of mind games, with the events of 2015 continuing to rankle with Rossi who will very likely go to his grave still holding the belief that MM stole the 2015 title from him, while MM moved on to win a further 3 titles.

I don’t think Rossi had any necessity for his fabled mind games btw, his quality and performance as a rider were more than sufficient to intimidate other riders without inciting the Valeban or employing the media.

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He has used mind games his entire career so it just became his modus operandi imo.

Disagree with the bold part in relation to Marquez.
He was not going to consistently beat Marquez on track without trying to impose some restraint or doubt in the mind of Marquez. MM was just able to push that much harder into a corner than VR.
He used his fan base to assist him in his attempt to introduce that doubt. MM was all too aware and out rode him crushingly.
That resistance by Marc forms part of my reason for liking him too, but his ability to consistently leave black lines with the front tyre and fierce competitive drive stands him above any other rider I've seen.

The things that I disliked Marc for he has stopped doing, so I have no reason to dislike him anymore

warthog1 said:

He has used mind games his entire career so it just became his modus operandi imo.

Disagree with the bold part in relation to Marquez.
He was not going to consistently beat Marquez on track without trying to impose some restraint or doubt in the mind of Marquez. MM was just able to push that much harder into a corner than VR.
He used his fan base to assist him in his attempt to introduce that doubt. MM was all too aware and out rode him crushingly.
That resistance by Marc forms part of my reason for liking him too, but his ability to consistently leave black lines with the front tyre and fierce competitive drive stands him above any other rider I've seen.

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Sure he is a great rider, very probably the greatest, but Stoner was fantastic to watch as well although he had nothing like the resilience and long term commitment and determination MM has displayed. Like Bern 1 my attitude to MM is somewhat tempered by his (mainly early career) ruthlessness. His determination is largely admirable, but the Willairot incident remains indefensible.

MM didn’t really out-ride Rossi in 2015 as the points table demonstrated, with MM crashing out 5 or 6 times off his own bat prior to Sepang 2015, something he learned from, particularly and rather ironically imo from how he won the PI race. Rossi wasn’t able to seal the deal late season when several other riders including Dani Pedrosa at several tracks were faster than him, as MM said Valentino needed to beat Lorenzo rather than him.

Very definitely want MM to win the title this season big time though, and watching him is now my biggest reason for following the sport.

michaelm said:

Sure he is a great rider, very probably the greatest, but Stoner was fantastic to watch as well although he had nothing like the resilience and long term commitment and determination MM has displayed. Like Bern 1 my attitude to MM is somewhat tempered by his (mainly early career) ruthlessness. His determination is largely admirable, but the Willairot incident remains indefensible.

MM didn’t really out-ride Rossi in 2015 as the points table demonstrated, with MM crashing out 5 or 6 times off his own bat prior to Sepang 2015, something he learned from, particularly and rather ironically imo from how he won the PI race. Rossi wasn’t able to seal the deal late season when several other riders including Dani Pedrosa at several tracks were faster than him, as MM said Valentino needed to beat Lorenzo rather than him.

Very definitely want MM to win the title this season big time though, and watching him is now my biggest reason for following the sport.

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Sure he cocked up early in season in 2015 and later crashing too many times but showed time and again before and after he had Rossi's measure.
Rossi no doubt was aware also and used his off track manuevering to try and reduce that on track advantage Marquez had.
Very, very satisfyingly unsuccessfully.

Yeah looking forward to this season too. Going to be very hard to win the title but far more possible than on the Honda.

Interesting point of view.

FIM Technical Commission director impressed by Marc Márquez: ‘He's in a league of his own’

Does anybody have a link to the press conference prior to the sepang clash or can tell me what exactly has been said there by rossi regard MM?

ApriliaRS250 said:

Does anybody have a link to the press conference prior to the sepang clash or can tell me what exactly has been said there by rossi regard MM?

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He basically said MM had conspired to help Jorge Lorenzo in the PI race the week before, a race MM actually won by passing Lorenzo on the last lap thereby depriving Jorge of 5 points.

It emerged later that Rossi himself had no suspicion during the race but that MM’s perfidy had been discovered by an analysis by one Ucchio, who determined that MM hadn’t raced Lorenzo when he passed him earlier in the race as hard as he did Rossi later in the race.

I am biased but have been a motorsports fan since my early teens, and that a competitor could tank a race he actually won was a new concept for me.

ApriliaRS250 said:

Does anybody have a link to the press conference prior to the sepang clash or can tell me what exactly has been said there by rossi

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vimeo.com/168747629/comments

Go to 23 mins in. If you don't have motogp video pass.

michaelm said:

He basically said MM had conspired to help Jorge Lorenzo in the PI race the week before, a race MM actually won by passing Lorenzo on the last lap thereby depriving Jorge of 5 points.

It emerged later that Rossi himself had no suspicion during the race but that MM’s perfidy had been discovered by an analysis by one Ucchio, who determined that MM hadn’t raced Lorenzo when he passed him earlier in the race as hard as he did Rossi later in the race.

I am biased but have been a motorsports fan since my early teens, and that a competitor could tank a race he actually won was a new concept for me.

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Who can also forget that Sepang presser when the conspiracy was unveiled, Rossi looked like he'd been on a week-long meth binge.