How will Marc Marquez do in 2024?

PRS717 said:

What if he doesn't have to? I think I've said this before but what if Marc comes to grips with Ducati's aero package and the rest of the bike in general and is able to adjust his riding style to suit the bike? This would make him very dangerous, competitively speaking. I've rooted against Marc in the past, not because I dislike him but because he was so dominating. Now I am hoping he comes back strong and ups the ante for Pecco and Jorge.

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Exactly. People go on about Marc pushing the front, but that is how the Honda was. Especially with the Bridgestones and they never really got on top of the Michelins requiring a more balanced bike in braking when you take his talent out of the equation.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Casey Stoner was branded a crasher prior to the start of the 2007 season. But when he had a tyre that wasn't a castoff and could let him push...he was gone.

michaelm said:

short of extreme conspiracy theories it looked like they were going to let Martin win last season.

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Except for the still unexplained dip in Qatar main race.

PRS717 said:

What if he doesn't have to? I think I've said this before but what if Marc comes to grips with Ducati's aero package and the rest of the bike in general and is able to adjust his riding style to suit the bike? This would make him very dangerous, competitively speaking. I've rooted against Marc in the past, not because I dislike him but because he was so dominating. Now I am hoping he comes back strong and ups the ante for Pecco and Jorge.

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It was a clear point of separation he had between himself and others was my point.
I have never seen anybody else able to leave black marks on corner entry with the front tyre and still make it around as consistently as Marc has displayed.
I don't expect that differential of ability to be there anymore. However yes he is good at pretty much everything so he may not need it to win overall.
Not having that differential makes it harder though imo. I don't expect him to be able to carve into a corner and pass as much as he once could.
I am hanging to watch though.

The only Honda rider that was consistently near MM was Pedrosa. As the Honda became more of a beast to control MM could win on it while others struggled.

MM himself said that he needed to focus on consistency, referring to this season

The MotoGP records Marc Marquez could eclipse in 2024

In summary:

First Independent MotoGP champion​

No MotoGP rider has ever tasted championship success on a satellite bike, but if Marquez can become a champion with Gresini Ducati in 2024 that’s exactly what he will have achieved.

Kenny Roberts, Marco Lucchinelli and Franco Uncini all won premier class titles with limited equipment compared to factory riders, however, winning with a satellite team has never been done in the MotoGP era.

Longest wait…​

If Marquez wins the 2024 title, he will also become the rider who won the championship after the longest wait since his last.

Great rivals Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo both tasted title success three years after winning a MotoGP championship, while Casey Stoner went four years between his title win at Ducati (2007) and his triumph at Honda (2011).

But if Marquez achieves title success this season he will have gone five years since his last championship win with Repsol Honda (2019).

The records Marquez can equal include titles with two manufacturers and nine world titles​

Marquez could join the likes of Geoff Duke, Giacomo Agostini, Eddie Lawson, Rossi and Stoner, who won two premier class titles with different manufacturers if he wins the title with Ducati.

Marquez could also join archnemisis Rossi by winning a ninth world title - seventh in MotoGP - which would put him tied for third for the most world championship wins behind Agostini (15) and Angel Nieto (13).

Someone please refresh my memory as it is not so good. When Marc came into MotoGP, did he have the same amount of hype coming in as Acosta does? Even though Acosta is not with a factory team, he still seams to have lofty expectations placed on him. I'm sure nobody expected Marc to win the title but I can't remember what the hype was at the time.
Speaking of Acosta, I watched a video at MotoGP.com from his Valencia test. He seems to have had a little trouble sorting out what buttons to push and when to push them.

PRS717 said:

Someone please refresh my memory as it is not so good. When Marc came into MotoGP, did he have the same amount of hype coming in as Acosta does? Even though Acosta is not with a factory team, he still seams to have lofty expectations placed on him. I'm sure nobody expected Marc to win the title but I can't remember what the hype was at the time.
Speaking of Acosta, I watched a video at MotoGP.com from his Valencia test. He seems to have had a little trouble sorting out what buttons to push and when to push them.

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My recollection is it was divided between those who thought he was the 2nd coming and those who thought of him as “Murder Marc”.

Keshav said:

My recollection is it was divided between those who thought he was the 2nd coming and those who thought of him as “Murder Marc”.

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I do recall his reputation for being ruthless preceded him. I may have to go back and watch his championship season in Moto2. Not sure I can suffer through listening to Nick Harris though.

He had more hype than Acosta. I recall Jumkie propounding that he/his team must be cheating to explain his dominance in a spec moto 2 series including winning races from the back of the grid.

He probably had a reputation for ruthlessness, but more so for recklessness, and justifiably so particularly in view of the Willairot incident, hence the aforementioned Jumkie dubbing him Murder Marc while apportioning some blame to his team for sending him out to go for a hot lap leading to him taking out Willairot.

michaelm said:

He had more hype than Acosta. I recall Jumkie propounding that he/his team must be cheating to explain his dominance in a spec moto 2 series including winning races from the back of the grid.

He probably had a reputation for ruthlessness, but more so for recklessness, and justifiably so particularly in view of the Willairot incident, hence the aforementioned Jumkie dubbing him Murder Marc while apportioning some blame to his team for sending him out to go for a hot lap leading to him taking out Willairot.

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While I think Acosta comes with a decent bit of hype, it's nothing like what MM had going into 2013. He had to go in a factory bike whereas Acosta just has to go into a satellite team and focus on getting experience. Does he become MotoGP world champion one day? Possibly. But in such a hyper-competitive series I think it's far more difficult to get to the top. I think the Ducati stranglehold will remain till the engine regulations change. I don't think KTM is at the point where they could be consistent for an entire season. They have their tracks where they perform exceptionally well, but they haven't put it together for the full campaign. I'm not sure if they are going to get there with the now limited time they have till the regulations change.

JPSLotus said:

While I think Acosta comes with a decent bit of hype, it's nothing like what MM had going into 2013. He had to go in a factory bike whereas Acosta just has to go into a satellite team and focus on getting experience. Does he become MotoGP world champion one day? Possibly. But in such a hyper-competitive series I think it's far more difficult to get to the top. I think the Ducati stranglehold will remain till the engine regulations change. I don't think KTM is at the point where they could be consistent for an entire season. They have their tracks where they perform exceptionally well, but they haven't put it together for the full campaign. I'm not sure if they are going to get there with the now limited time they have till the regulations change.

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As I recall they also changed the rules so MM could go directly to a factory Honda ride, the rule at the time was that rookies could only ride for a satellite team.

I don’t think MM was necessarily expected to win the title straight off even on a factory Honda though. Jorge Lorenzo was looking fairly strong leading into the season, and indeed continued to look strong in the early season until the crash which disintegrated his clavicle. Even then most of the riders didn’t think MM would last the whole season and that his season would inevitably be curtailed by crashes.

michaelm said:

As I recall they also changed the rules so MM could go directly to a factory Honda ride, the rule at the time was that rookies could only ride for a satellite team.

I don’t think MM was necessarily expected to win the title straight off even on a factory Honda though. Jorge Lorenzo was looking fairly strong leading into the season, and indeed continued to look strong in the early season until the crash which disintegrated his clavicle. Even then most of the riders didn’t think MM would last the whole season and that his season would inevitably be curtailed by crashes.

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Before Dorna decided to try and commit robbery with their VideoPass prices, I was doing a rewatch of 2013, and it was fascinating to say the least. I couldn't get over Marc's speed on the Honda coming off Moto 2 machinery. He made his presence known early in the season, but I don't think he would have won if as you say, Jorge doesn't destroy his clavicle in Assen. The early season was looking to be a possible Dani vs Jorge showdown, but then Marc started getting comfortable.

michaelm said:

As I recall they also changed the rules so MM could go directly to a factory Honda ride, the rule at the time was that rookies could only ride for a satellite team.

I don’t think MM was necessarily expected to win the title straight off even on a factory Honda though. Jorge Lorenzo was looking fairly strong leading into the season, and indeed continued to look strong in the early season until the crash which disintegrated his clavicle. Even then most of the riders didn’t think MM would last the whole season and that his season would inevitably be curtailed by crashes.

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Wasn't that rule only around for 2-4 years? I remember Lorenzo going straight to a factory Yamaha. IIRC nobody, from the satellite teams to the factory teams really wanted the rule anyway. I have recolections of it being called the Spies rule by someone? I just remember it becoming a rule until the next dominant (MM) middleclass rider was ready to come to MotoGP and then it was scrapped. I do recall Stoner not being a fan of the rule and being pretty vocal, whether pushed by Honda to do so or not, that Marquez should be getting his ride for 2013.

p4p1 said:

Wasn't that rule only around for 2-4 years? I remember Lorenzo going straight to a factory Yamaha. IIRC nobody, from the satellite teams to the factory teams really wanted the rule anyway. I have recolections of it being called the Spies rule by someone? I just remember it becoming a rule until the next dominant (MM) middleclass rider was ready to come to MotoGP and then it was scrapped. I do recall Stoner not being a fan of the rule and being pretty vocal, whether pushed by Honda to do so or not, that Marquez should be getting his ride for 2013.

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Yes, my recollection as well.

I believe the purpose was to have the truly promising/generationally talented riders on a satellite team in the hope they may get full factory backing or their talent might shine through and the series may have more than 4 riders fighting for the first 3 positions, which if we are being honest, the series really needed but it just didn't make sense for anybody in the paddock. Perhaps the factories and the satellite teams decided to give Dorna their win, putting off the fight until there was someone genuinely worthy of jumping straight onto one of the factory Honda/Yamahas.

What annoys me is when people talk about changing the rules for MM as if he was given special treatment that no one before him was when in reality he was following more or less every great rider before him.

PRS717 said:

Someone please refresh my memory as it is not so good. When Marc came into MotoGP, did he have the same amount of hype coming in as Acosta does? Even though Acosta is not with a factory team, he still seams to have lofty expectations placed on him. I'm sure nobody expected Marc to win the title but I can't remember what the hype was at the time.
Speaking of Acosta, I watched a video at MotoGP.com from his Valencia test. He seems to have had a little trouble sorting out what buttons to push and when to push them.

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The way I recall it the hype was more around how Honda got Dorna to change the rules, prior to that season the rule was that a new rider couldn't go directly to a factory team, they had to spend 1 year in a satellite team. This was also a time where the podium was pretty much locked out by the 2 factory teams of Yamaha and Honda and hence put Marquez in a better position that any other rookie previously. For the record there was only 2 satellite riders who to a podium over the 18 rounds in 2013, that been Crutchlow who got 2 2nd's and 2 3rd's and Bradl who got 1 2nd.

To compare M Maquez's entry to MotoGP 2013 with Acosta 2024 we could perhaps compare against the team mate;

2013
M Marquez 336 points 1st in championship
Pedrosa 300 points 3rd in championship

2024
Acosta
Fernández

Of course we could debate the skills of Fernández 2024 vs Pedrosa 2013 and which is the best brand of beer etc etc.

Crunching the numbers, Peccos season of 467 points is an average of 23.2 points per round. There is a possible 37 points per round, a total of 740 points. 63.1% of the total points. In 2019 Marquez scored 420 points out of a possible 475 or 88.4%. There has been huge changes since 2019 but it isn't impossible to think that a guy who was that dominant, during what was at the point the most competitive era of MotoGP (4 different manufacturers in the top 4), on a bike that performed worse than Yamaha and Ducati out of his hands, even if he isn't at his best and is on a year old bike couldn't take 65% of the points possible if he rides smarter than he has since 2016/17

p4p1 said:

I believe the purpose was to have the truly promising/generationally talented riders on a satellite team in the hope they may get full factory backing or their talent might shine through and the series may have more than 4 riders fighting for the first 3 positions, which if we are being honest, the series really needed but it just didn't make sense for anybody in the paddock. Perhaps the factories and the satellite teams decided to give Dorna their win, putting off the fight until there was someone genuinely worthy of jumping straight onto one of the factory Honda/Yamahas.

What annoys me is when people talk about changing the rules for MM as if he was given special treatment that no one before him was when in reality he was following more or less every great rider before him.

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It was certainly a quite temporary rule, and as I recall designed to boost the satellite teams. MM certainly didn’t get favourable treatment compared with most of the top riders who preceded him, including Valentino given the Nastro Azzurro team was pretty much a factory team with Mick Doohan’s crew and actually according to Rossi subsequently his preferred set-up.
Honda were said to have persuaded Dorna, but perhaps they were owed a favour by Dorna who had not exactly been overly generous to Honda during Casey Stoner’s tenure with the late weight and tyre changes etc.

p4p1 said:

Crunching the numbers, Peccos season of 467 points is an average of 23.2 points per round. There is a possible 37 points per round, a total of 740 points. 63.1% of the total points. In 2019 Marquez scored 420 points out of a possible 475 or 88.4%. There has been huge changes since 2019 but it isn't impossible to think that a guy who was that dominant, during what was at the point the most competitive era of MotoGP (4 different manufacturers in the top 4), on a bike that performed worse than Yamaha and Ducati out of his hands, even if he isn't at his best and is on a year old bike couldn't take 65% of the points possible if he rides smarter than he has since 2016/17

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This is the point I think most people are making, myself included. I have posted in the past that if you look at the world champions since 2020, none have been anywhere close to the consistency Marquez showed in 2019. A big deal has been made of the fact that Bagnaia has won both his titles with 5 DNF's. If he does that this yr, then no way would be beat Marquez on the Gresini who wouldn't even need to win every race as long as he was on or near the podium each time.

When Marquez had a bad day in his title years, it means he finished 3rd instead of 1st. Compare that to the 2020-2023 world champions. In fact. Discounted races where he crashed and got back up, the last time Marquez finished off the podium after the conclusion of the 2019 season was Malaysia 2017 (4th), with his worst result that yr being in Mugello (6th). Again, most of his results were podiums. Joan Mir was the most consistent of all riders for his title in 2020, Quartararo had a season for winning one race, then finishing 8th in the next. Bagnaias late 2022 charge was impressive but again he crashed out of a lot of races. His 2023 was similar in that he either won, or crashed a lot of the time.

I'm still trying to keep my expectations in check, but there is a reason Marc is the odds on favourite with most bookies you see online to win the title. I certainly expect him to be at the sharp end in the first half of the season.

michaelm said:

As I recall they also changed the rules so MM could go directly to a factory Honda ride, the rule at the time was that rookies could only ride for a satellite team.

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I totally forgot about the rookie rule. As I said, my memory sucks.

p4p1 said:

Crunching the numbers, Peccos season of 467 points is an average of 23.2 points per round. There is a possible 37 points per round, a total of 740 points. 63.1% of the total points. In 2019 Marquez scored 420 points out of a possible 475 or 88.4%. There has been huge changes since 2019 but it isn't impossible to think that a guy who was that dominant, during what was at the point the most competitive era of MotoGP (4 different manufacturers in the top 4), on a bike that performed worse than Yamaha and Ducati out of his hands, even if he isn't at his best and is on a year old bike couldn't take 65% of the points possible if he rides smarter than he has since 2016/17

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Great math's thanks for doing that. While the field is a tad closer in 2023 to 2019 its close enough to compare mathematically and its showing that Marc was more consistent than Pecco on race day. One could debate about there being twice as many races but that would probably make the math's even more accurate as there's twice the number of samples or we could say 1.5 times the samples as the sprint is half points.

2019 and prior Marc would do a lot of crashes in practice finding the limit and then not crash during the race. Other riders would find that they needed to find a bit more during the race sometimes resulting in race crashes that Marc avoided with his strategy.