I'm packing up at the moment and getting ready to head out to Laguna.
As far as predictions go. Below is the order I would put them in. Every year has been tough. Hayden won but its not like he was gifted the race. So before I go into my predictions, lets remember that the track is not the same, it has been repaved, and nobody, not even Hayden has ran the track.
I believe and hope Hayden will win.
But remember, I'm a die hard Hayden Fan. Having said that, he is on the up, as evidenced by his last two podiums, so his determination and talent is certainly not in question here. Its not like the Honda/Michelin combo has set the world on fire this season. But this is his home race, he has had success here, and most everybody will be cheering him on. He will be determined to beat his teammate, which I think along with Rossi will be his greatest challenge. Plus he is the defending champ, he is one of the top five riders in the world, and his brother will be in the race. Never underestimate the power of sibling rivalry.
As far as the other guys scoring a win, well, I am reminded of the Mugello predictions. Just about everybody predicted a Ducati first then Stoner win. But it turned out that Rossi won and Casey didn't even make the podium.
Rossi. So obviously it’s all-speculative. But I think the front-runner is Rossi. Imagine for a moment if there would have been another round after Valencia last year. How do you think Rossi would have come out? Well I think the conditions are similar to that imaginary scenario. Rossi will have unbridled determination to win. But apart from his determination. He is on a very cable machine and with the same tires as Hayden. He has had some experience at the track now, and with the new service, I don't think anybody has much of an advantage, not even Hayden. Rosssi hasn't had a good experience yet at Laguna, and considering that the United States is an attractive place where he would like to see his name lifted, I would think he will do everything possible to make this happen. I'd say Rossi will gets the edge for the rest of the challengers.
Pedrosa. Oh but there is Pedrosa. Who smoked Hayden, and everybody else at Germany. Pedrosa has been on the podium at Laguna and gave Hayden a run for his money. And this was when Hayden had the clear home field advantage. Pedrosa is still the #1 at Repsol/Honda. And now with a scored win and Pedrosa that much closer to take the second spot in the championship standing, well I think we all know where all the effort and loyalties will/have lied on their team. I'm sure they have their super computer calculating a scenario if Rossi and Stoner take each other out in one of those battles, that Pedrosa will be their to pick up the title for Honda (just as they had planned it). Perhaps the edge goes to Rossi in trying to get back his mistake in Germany, well I think a fraction of a nano-meter next to him is Pedrosa.
Stoner will definitely be up there and challenging for the win. He has proven all season that he is the deserved championship leader and has pretty much been flawless. Couple this with perhaps some added focus of title hopes as we are now on the back straight of the season, and you have a man on a mission. I hate having to wonder how the tires will play into the results, but of the three above guys, Casey is the only one on Bridgestones that I think is a heavy probable for the win.
Now lets put the following four names in the hat: Hopkins, Edwards, Melandri, and Vermuelen. All these guys are cable of winning at Laguna, and some have already won (Vermuelen in WSBK). What sets these guys apart from the rest of the field is that each of them has something to prove at Laguna and some have already shown that they can do well (Melandri podiumed last year).
Lets start with Hopkins. Of the four guys I think Hopkins has the edge. Even though Vermuelen has won here before, Hopkins has shown all season that he has consistently beaten his teammate in the dry. Not to mention that Hopkins is a California boy. So this is his home track. Some of you may recall that Hopkins for the most part was only passed in the straights as a miserable testament to his ...... Suzuki in the past. But this year he has consistently been in the top bracket of riders. I think Laguna will see him fight for the win if not the podium.
Edwards has both WSBK and MotoGP success at Laguna. He was charging up the field the first year when Hayden won and had to fight off Rossi, which is never easy. Edwards has also not scored that illusive win. Where else to score your first win than in the country of your birth. He was latched onto Hayden at Germany and charged up the field to score a 4th, fresh in his mind. He is on a Yamaha, which I think is an advantage over the Suzukis. So as far as Hopkins and Edwards goes, it’s a push, equal chances at a win or podium.
Vermuelen has had success here. He also led last year in a miserable Suzuki. That said more about his familiarity and talent at Laguna than it did about his ...... bike. He is definitely gonna be one of the front-runners. My only worry about him is that he hasn't had that much success over Hopkins in the dry this season, so I would not give him the edge. But as far as fighting for the win or podium, he will be in the mix, equal to Melandri.
Melandri has podiumed here in the US. He knows he has the talent, the only question in his mind was/is does he have the package. Well judging from Germany, he does have enough to win or podium. Some of you may still remember his performance last year. It was not a gift podium and considering it was extremely hot, a podium was certainly earned. As far as his chances to win, well he has something to prove to himself, his fans that where disappointed in his recent comments, and his prospective employer. I consider Vermuelen and Melandri a push, equal in chances for a win or podium.
Damn, I'm so excited I about pissed my pants writing this post. I can't wait. I'm gonna meet Burky, Dave T, Maybe even Phorest, I'm gonna be with a bunch of other friends, and most of all I will get to cheer on Nicky Hayden live.