2018 Gran Premio Motul de la Comunitat Valenciana Predictions and Race Chat

JPSLotus · Nov 12, 2018

Theo said:
Not necessarily in this order, but the 3 Spaniards.

MM
Rins
Vinales

You're writing Lorenzo off who had more wins than Rins and Vinales combined this year. There'll be more race wins for Lorenzo in the future as I think his Ducati experience will help him with the RCV. It's still a MM bike, but Lorenzo will easily do better than Pedrosa did this year.

Keshav · Nov 12, 2018

JPSLotus said:
You're writing Lorenzo off who had more wins than Rins and Vinales combined this year. There'll be more race wins for Lorenzo in the future as I think his Ducati experience will help him with the RCV. It's still a MM bike, but Lorenzo will easily do better than Pedrosa did this year.

You’re the second person to say that. I see no parallels between the Duc and Honda, so fail to connect the dots. Please elucidate.

povol · Nov 12, 2018

JPSLotus said:
You're writing Lorenzo off who had more wins than Rins and Vinales combined this year. There'll be more race wins for Lorenzo in the future as I think his Ducati experience will help him with the RCV. It's still a MM bike, but Lorenzo will easily do better than Pedrosa did this year.

For this race I would be stunned if Lorenzo was a factor. Broken wrist’s don’t go from not being able to run within 5 seconds of the leaders and ultimately withdrawing, to contending for a win in 2 weeks. No matter what he says , I can’t imagine him pushing any edge in this meaningless race and risking crucial time on the Honda next week.

Bern1 · Nov 12, 2018

I will try.
Lorenzo has had to adapt to a new bike over the last couple of years which was apparently quite different than the Yamaha he had become accustomed to.
I believe this experience will make him even stronger hopping on to the Honda, even if this bike may also be very different.
I think having experience on these different machines will make him a threat on the Honda. After all, the guy has found a way to win on every machine he has been on in his MotoGP career.

What worries me is the injury he has sustained. I am wondering if he will even be at Valencia and how for he will be.

I am especially interested as I and a group have tickets and I’ll be in the stands watching.

Go Jorge!

Keshav · Nov 12, 2018

Bern1 said:
I will try.
Lorenzo has had to adapt to a new bike over the last couple of years which was apparently quite different than the Yamaha he had become accustomed to.
I believe this experience will make him even stronger hopping on to the Honda, even if this bike may also be very different.
I think having experience on these different machines will make him a threat on the Honda. After all, the guy has found a way to win on every machine he has been on in his MotoGP career.

What worries me is the injury he has sustained. I am wondering if he will even be at Valencia and how for he will be.

I am especially interested as I and a group have tickets and I’ll be in the stands watching.

Go Jorge!

If all I study is math, and then switch to philosophy and it takes 18 months to become versed in philosophy - it won't make me better prepared when I switch to linguistics.

When it was proposed that Nicky move to Ducati, everyone (myself included) thought his flat-tracking background would set him up to be nearly as competitive as Stoner. I still think Mr. Smooth is in for a rude awakening.

evo9 · Nov 12, 2018

JPSLotus said:
You're writing Lorenzo off who had more wins than Rins and Vinales combined this year. There'll be more race wins for Lorenzo in the future as I think his Ducati experience will help him with the RCV. It's still a MM bike, but Lorenzo will easily do better than Pedrosa did this year.

Keshav said:
You’re the second person to say that. I see no parallels between the Duc and Honda, so fail to connect the dots. Please elucidate.

I was one of the first here to to say that, if not the first. Here is some insight from someone in the know. He even mention the similarity of the bikes.
https://www.gpone.com/en/2018/11/09...l-be-a-troublesome-team-mate-for-marquez.html

Keshav · Nov 12, 2018

evo9 said:
I was one of the first here to to say that, if not the first. Here is some insight from someone in the know. He even mention the similarity of the bikes.
https://www.gpone.com/en/2018/11/09...l-be-a-troublesome-team-mate-for-marquez.html

"The Ducati and the Honda are probably more similar and he'll (Lorenzo) struggle less"

Mate: this is an off-the-cuff statement in what is a puff piece snippet of PR journalism; not exactly an in-depth analysis of the vast dissimilarities that set the bikes apart.
Suppo is hardly going to openly express to the public discouraging predictions about the chances of an incoming teammate.

I agree w JP that JL will do better than Dani - but he will struggle, at minimum, for the first half of the season. Lorenzo while talented, is no Lawson.

michaelm · Nov 13, 2018

Keshav said:
"The Ducati and the Honda are probably more similar and he'll (Lorenzo) struggle less"

Mate: this is an off-the-cuff statement in what is a puff piece snippet of PR journalism; not exactly an in-depth analysis of the vast dissimilarities that set the bikes apart.
Suppo is hardly going to openly express to the public discouraging predictions about the chances of an incoming teammate.

I agree w JP that JL will do better than Dani - but he will struggle, at minimum, for the first half of the season. Lorenzo while talented, is no Lawson.

I am a little more hopeful. I really thought he was stuck in that exaggeratedly smooth wide sweeping style he adopted perhaps of necessity in his latter days at Yamaha and would never adapt to the Ducati, but he did adapt and quite likely contributed to improving the Ducati. I can see him both adapting again to what is a conventional bike if not set up or conventionally ridden by MM, and Honda themselves seem to have a genuine desire for, and hence a likelihood of investing in, making the bike more generally rideable, I think they are embarrassed customers don’t want their bikes.

Furiosa · Nov 13, 2018

Keshav said:
If all I study is math, and then switch to philosophy and it takes 18 months to become versed in philosophy - it won't make me better prepared when I switch to linguistics.

I think it will a little bit. You'll be back into the swing of learning new things. You know where the library is this time and have learnt how to give up your entire social life for study. However, Maths to Philosophy is probably close to what he did!

The truth is, we have absolutely no idea how Lorenzo will fare on the Honda. However I think it's fairly widespread opinion that the Duc is "different". I think anyone thinking that he'll hop onto the Honda and it'll be like the Good Ol Yam days is putting hope before sense.

Marc is pretty special and I don't think anyone will ride a Honda like he does. Dani Pedrosa's results for the last year or so are pretty dodgy and he hasn't always been that far off the pace.

Theo · Nov 13, 2018

JPSLotus said:
You're writing Lorenzo off who had more wins than Rins and Vinales combined this year. There'll be more race wins for Lorenzo in the future as I think his Ducati experience will help him with the RCV. It's still a MM bike, but Lorenzo will easily do better than Pedrosa did this year.

Yes I've written him off like Rossi, don't like either of them, both a pair of reprehensible poseurs. Neither will ever again win a championship and Rossi will never win a race again.

Theo · Nov 13, 2018

povol said:
For this race I would be stunned if Lorenzo was a factor. Broken wrist’s don’t go from not being able to run within 5 seconds of the leaders and ultimately withdrawing, to contending for a win in 2 weeks. No matter what he says , I can’t imagine him pushing any edge in this meaningless race and risking crucial time on the Honda next week.

I don't think he'll race at all, he'll putter around the track for a couple of laps then give up.

Theo · Nov 13, 2018

Gaz said:
We should also not discount the influence of Cristian Gabbarini who returned to Ducat at the time Lorenzo arrived as well as there have been a lot of co-incidences that have made the Ducati what it has become (all IMO)

Its quite obvious that when you look at the 2017 Ducati then the 2018 version after they changed quite a few bits for Lorenzo he became competitive on it, however Honda has said they will not offer the same on their bikes as they have a golden goose already who is 7 years younger than Lorenzo. IMO Lorenzo has made a stupid mistake by going to Honda, just to stay on a bike.

evo9 · Nov 13, 2018

Keshav said:
"The Ducati and the Honda are probably more similar and he'll (Lorenzo) struggle less"

Mate: this is an off-the-cuff statement in what is a puff piece snippet of PR journalism; not exactly an in-depth analysis of the vast dissimilarities that set the bikes apart.
Suppo is hardly going to openly express to the public discouraging predictions about the chances of an incoming teammate.

I agree w JP that JL will do better than Dani - but he will struggle, at minimum, for the first half of the season. Lorenzo while talented, is no Lawson.

Dude! I never said Lorenzo was going to be A+ with the RCV out the gate. I said he will adapt to it quicker than the Ducati. The Ducati was a good platform for him to graduate from to the Honda RCV.

michaelm · Nov 13, 2018

Theo said:
Its quite obvious that when you look at the 2017 Ducati then the 2018 version after they changed quite a few bits for Lorenzo he became competitive on it, however Honda has said they will not offer the same on their bikes as they have a golden goose already who is 7 years younger than Lorenzo. IMO Lorenzo has made a stupid mistake by going to Honda, just to stay on a bike.

On the other hand maybe the bits they changed for Lorenzo made the bike better overall including for Dovi.

I agree that no way will he be anything but second priority for HRC while they have MM. At best he is perhaps insurance if MM jumps to Ducati or wherever at the end of his current contract

Theo · Nov 13, 2018

michaelm said:
On the other hand maybe the bits they changed for Lorenzo made the bike better overall including for Dovi.

I agree that no way will he be anything but second priority for HRC while they have MM. At best he is perhaps insurance if MM jumps to Ducati or wherever at the end of his current contract

By which time he will be 34 if MM jumps ship (6 weeks into the season).

michaelm · Nov 13, 2018

Theo said:
By which time he will be 34 if MM jumps ship (6 weeks into the season).

There is that.

Keshav · Nov 13, 2018

michaelm said:
I am a little more hopeful. I really thought he was stuck in that exaggeratedly smooth wide sweeping style he adopted perhaps of necessity in his latter days at Yamaha and would never adapt to the Ducati, but he did adapt and quite likely contributed to improving the Ducati. I can see him both adapting again to what is a conventional bike if not set up or conventionally ridden by MM, and Honda themselves seem to have a genuine desire for, and hence a likelihood of investing in, making the bike more generally rideable, I think they are embarrassed customers don’t want their bikes.

This would be the rational, pragmatic approach, but Honda's engineering dept. has historically gone against the grain favoring showy innovation that seems more aimed at impressing the wonks at the other factories, over subtle, useable changes that the rider can utilize.

Ducati's biggest failing for years was due to the prideful engineering dept. that stubbornly refused to reconfigure the part of the bike that made it mostly impossible to design a competitive chassis.

Marquez is still young and healthy and able to ride around the bike's issues. Lorenzo, I suspect will be the new parts testing donkey for a while, trying out new and improved high-tech band-aids that the engineers throw at him.

RCV600RR · Nov 13, 2018

Lorenzo is a fantastic hedge against a Marquez defection to Ducati. Very clever by Puig.

I expect that a few new skills he's picked up at Ducati will be very handy on the Honda. He's mastered bikes at the two extremes - the extreme cornerspeed/late-apex that the Yamaha likes, and the more aggressive stop-and-go riding that the Ducati likes.

Theo · Nov 13, 2018

RCV600RR said:
Lorenzo is a fantastic hedge against a Marquez defection to Ducati. Very clever by Puig.

I expect that a few new skills he's picked up at Ducati will be very handy on the Honda. He's mastered bikes at the two extremes - the extreme cornerspeed/late-apex that the Yamaha likes, and the more aggressive stop-and-go riding that the Ducati likes.

Have you ever seen a bike that can do both regimes?

No I haven't either.

Keshav · Nov 13, 2018

RCV600RR said:
Lorenzo is a fantastic hedge against a Marquez defection to Ducati. Very clever by Puig.

I expect that a few new skills he's picked up at Ducati will be very handy on the Honda. He's mastered bikes at the two extremes - the extreme cornerspeed/late-apex that the Yamaha likes, and the more aggressive stop-and-go riding that the Ducati likes.

If nothing else he brings more sponsorship cash than any other of the available riders, and will doubtless garner more points towards the constructors championship than Dani. I'm very curious to see how far HRC will go to accommodate his riding style.

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2018 Gran Premio Motul de la Comunitat Valenciana Predictions and Race Chat

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Furiosa

Theo

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