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Odds for 2008 chamionship

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(michaelm @ Nov 30 2007, 02:51 AM) [snapback]102794[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
Dani at 7.00 looks like value.


I agree. If I put a bet down it would be on him.

Rossi is the obvious sucker bet. Yeah he's Rossi and he's got the Stones but there are way too many factors working against him for him to go off at 2.2:1.

Of course, no line has ever been made in accordance with actual probability since the dawn of time.
<


The only other name that looks appealing is Lorenzo. Suppose the following 2 things happen. 1) Michelin get their act together 2) Yamaha gets their act together. Lorenzo would be in the primo position to win. I don't know that he could do it, but if those two things (that aren't all that unlikely) happen, he will have only Hayden and Pedrosa in his way. Still a tall order, but it's a scenario that produces better odds than the ones he's getting.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(roger-m @ Nov 30 2007, 06:21 PM) [snapback]102902[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
come on haga put ya money where your mouth is !


What do you want me to do?

Bet money with you guys or something?
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Haga @ Nov 30 2007, 09:08 PM) [snapback]102926[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
What do you want me to do?

Bet money with you guys or something?

yup, put up or shut up !
 
The odds have changed considerably since this morning.

These make more sense, except for the Lorenzo one.

Valentino Rossi (ITA/Yamaha) 2.20 -> 2.40
Casey Stoner (AUS/Ducati) 2.50
Dani Pedrosa (ESP/Honda) 7.00 -> 5.25
Marco Melandri (ITA/Ducati) 9.00 -> 9.25
Jorge Lorenzo (ESP/Yamaha) 18.00 -> 22.00
Nicky Hayden (USA/Honda) 28.00
John Hopkins (USA/Kawasaki) 35.00
Loris Capirossi (ITA/Suzuki) 35.00
Chris Vermeulen (AUS/Suzuki) 35.00
Anthony West (AUS/Kawasaki) 101.00
Andrea Dovizioso (ITA/Honda) 201.00
Alex de Angelis (RSM/Honda) 251.00
James Toseland (GBR/Yamaha) 401.00
Shinya Nakano (JPN/Honda) 401.00
Randy de Puniet (FRA/Honda) 401.00
Sylvain Guintoli (FRA/Ducati) 501.00
Toni Elias (ESP/Ducati) 501.00
Colin Edwards (USA/Yamaha) 501.00
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Teomolca @ Dec 1 2007, 09:22 AM) [snapback]102947[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
The odds have changed considerably since this morning.




as they do ........ and after the first race they will change again .....
<
 
I think Hayden would be a good outside bet. The Honda's seem to have picked up the pace, and Hayden is on the factory machine.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(BarryMachine @ Nov 30 2007, 11:29 PM) [snapback]102948[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
as they do ........ and after the first race they will change again .....
<



They don't usually change in the same day if there hasn't been any event (test, fp, race ...) that changes the situation.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Teomolca @ Dec 1 2007, 11:58 PM) [snapback]102986[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
They don't usually change in the same day if there hasn't been any event (test, fp, race ...) that changes the situation.


Odds have a little to do with what happens in terms of ontrack stuff, yes for sure, but they also have a lot to do with off track emotions, and on making money for those who run the betting agencies etc. So to minimise the risk of a huge payout the numbers of posiible payouts is calculated into the odds given, so in some riders cases they can be very heavily backed in numbers of folk betting on them ..... but if the odds are too low people won't bet ..... make the odds look more attractive ..... and the money starts rolling in again.

Theres a lot of of track speculating goes into the allocating of odds ....
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Pinky @ Dec 2 2007, 08:07 AM) [snapback]103043[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
rossi is a joke at $2, the way rossi quits when things dont go his way


Despite his performance not being up to his own rediculously high standars this past 2 seasons he is still the safest bet on the track.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tom @ Dec 2 2007, 10:11 AM) [snapback]103047[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
Despite his performance not being up to his own rediculously high standars this past 2 seasons he is still the safest bet on the track.

I think rossi should be at least equal favourite, but 2 dollars/pounds is a ridiculous price in what is not a two horse race. It is entirely possible that the bikes from hrc and ducati will be too intrinsically fast compared to the yamaha for him to prevail, no matter how well he rides.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(michaelm @ Dec 2 2007, 10:53 AM) [snapback]103049[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
It is entirely possible that the bikes from hrc and ducati will be too intrinsically fast compared to the yamaha for him to prevail, no matter how well he rides.


It is entirely possible that the Yamaha handles so well that nobody but Rossi stands a chance, it would be just like old times.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tom @ Dec 2 2007, 11:07 AM) [snapback]103051[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
It is entirely possible that the Yamaha handles so well that nobody but Rossi stands a chance, it would be just like old times.

I absolutely agree this is possible, but I don't think it is an even money proposition. I speak as somebody who had $40 each way on efficient this year, and $100 on the nose on delta blues last year.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(IsraeliRacer @ Dec 1 2007, 02:35 AM) [snapback]102969[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
I think Hayden would be a good outside bet. The Honda's seem to have picked up the pace, and Hayden is on the factory machine.


I really really really want to believe this. But I can't see Hayden beating Pedrosa on an 800 labeled REPSOL.

It aint gonna happen. Too many company/sponsor resources flowing in the Puig/Pedrosa direction. Nicky always has a mountain to climb with that team.

Rookie of the year in 2003. Bad season behind Barros in 04. Survived Biaggi and his team wrecking tactics in 2005. Should have been with Melandri in 2006 but Melandri and Hayden both got snubbed for the Spaniard with the silver spoon in his mouth.

Until the Honda factory tank says Nike or Gatorade or bears the corporate mark of an english speaking nation, Hayden will have a tough go.
 
hayden doesn't need to beat pedrosa, he just needs to score more points... remember 06?

i got a weird gut feeling that Hayden will be top 3 in 08.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(drumfu @ Dec 3 2007, 09:22 AM) [snapback]103219[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
hayden doesn't need to beat pedrosa, he just needs to score more points... remember 06?

i got a weird gut feeling that Hayden will be top 3 in 08.


That's going to require him to beat one of the following. Stoner, Pedrosa, Rossi.

All of them have machinery built for them. None of them are stuck with development responsibilities.

It is definitely possible but Nicky's only chance is to build a surreal 2008 RC212V that has properly developed Michelins.

Hopefully 2008 will be extremely hot. It seems B-stones melt when the air temp gets up around 30C.
<
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Pinky @ Dec 2 2007, 08:07 AM) [snapback]103043[/snapback]<div class='quotemain'>
rossi is a joke at $2, the way rossi quits when things dont go his way


another dim comment, Rossi has never quit... even when hes been knocked off he gets back on if the bike is still running.

Its what champions do.

maybe your thinking of the hoff
<


Also i wouldn't waste any money on Dani... pfft most frustrating rider ever.
 

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