How will Marc Marquez do in 2024?
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Joined May 2009
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Shovel's Club
My heart says win the championship, my brain is stuck between win the championship and fight for the title. So I went with a. Its hard to say for sure how he will adapt since we haven't seen any front runners move to the current duc. His brothers form was better instantly so I hope for the same.
As per the other thread imo it will depend on how competitive the customer bike Gresini has next year is with a full factory 2024 Ducati. One thing you can’t knock Ducati for is the quality of the bikes they have given their customers in recent years, but I don’t see how there can be certainty this will continue, and whatever is the case theoretically I imagine Ducati still have some control over this.
We have however seen MM win a title in the past with a significant shoulder issue by riding mistake free rather than trying to win every race as is his natural inclination, and he may be able to do so again on a bike not actively trying to kill him. Most of his rivals including FQ and Bagnaia haven’t shown such capability and are likely to continue to crash, although perhaps not Martin on recent form.
Joined May 2009
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Totally agree the bike he receives is the "x" factor in this equation. If the bike isn't up to winning standard I would suspect it will be the last year gresini uses ducatis. Gresini to KTM VR46 to yamaha, all of a sudden the ducati strong hold gets much smaller.
These guys haven't raced a top form Marc, if thats what we get next year all of them will have to find another level. Also agree that the current form Martin may be the only rider that can keep up.
So we are assuming Marc would not need a bit of time (beyond testing) to gel with the bike? Alex was having some darn good races but he's been taken out several times I believe. Based on that I'd have to believe Marc will do well. Legitimate battle for the championship? That's asking a lot but it's Marc so I'm not betting against it.
I don’t think he will need much time, imo it will likely be similar to Casey Stoner hopping off the diabolical 2010. Ducati and on to the Honda at the post season test when he was faster than Dani Pedrosa straight away. No reason MM won’t be similar, although Casey did have an unusual ability to work out the fastest way around a circuit on a bike within very few laps. Remember MM is the guy who in moto 2, supposedly a spec series, could charge to the front if relegated to the back of the grid.
If the bike is capable of winning he will win on it, and as I have said he might be able to contend on consistency as well, we know he can ride mistake free to win a title when sub par.
Joined Feb 2020
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Bendigo Vic
Big move, but he needed to. As said in the other thread, no Santi.
He will be fighting for the title I hope but we won't see a domination again I don't think.
Joined Mar 2016
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FNQ
Big move, but he needed to. As said in the other thread, no Santi.
He will be fighting for the title I hope but we won't see a domination again I don't think.
Yeah, not taking Santi smells like a contractual obligation from Ducati. Is this going to be a one and done deal?
Marc reunites his garage team either at Factory Ducati/KTM in 2025?
Joined Mar 2023
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Australia
How well will M Marquez go in 2024 on a 2023 Ducati? Well we don't know but we can look at Marc's history. 2013 was his first year in MotoGP, which he won the championship on his first attempt, something that hadn't happened since Kenny Roberts Senior. in 2013 he was on the podium for all races except 2, a DNF and a DSQ. Didn't seem to be too much problem adapting from a Moto2 bike to a MotoGP bike.
Looking at the GP22 this year, there's 4 of them on the Grid;
- Bezzecchi 3rd in the championship, 3 wins, 7 podiums
- Marini 8th in the championship, 1 podium
- A Marquez 11th in the championship, 1 podium
- Giannantonio 16th in the championship, 0 podiums
While difficult to judge, I'd say the only bike that's doing better than the GP22 is the GP23. It could be debated as to how the KTM23 performs compared to the GP22.
Conclusion - History says that M Marquez will adapt quickly. The bike he gets will be capable of race wins. Unknown is how well the team will perform and this could be the decider in a championship challenge
Looking at the GP22 this year, there's 4 of them on the Grid;
- Bezzecchi 3rd in the championship, 3 wins, 7 podiums
- Marini 8th in the championship, 1 podium
- A Marquez 11th in the championship, 1 podium
- Giannantonio 16th in the championship, 0 podiums
While difficult to judge, I'd say the only bike that's doing better than the GP22 is the GP23. It could be debated as to how the KTM23 performs compared to the GP22.
Conclusion - History says that M Marquez will adapt quickly. The bike he gets will be capable of race wins. Unknown is how well the team will perform and this could be the decider in a championship challenge
Joined May 2009
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Joined Mar 2016
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FNQ
Joined Oct 2008
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In Cider
I posted a link to the video on the 2024 thread, but make an interesting point that the 2022 bike is still competitive with Bezzechi winning in India and the fact he has opted to stay with VR46 next yr must me he, and VR46, are confident that the customer GP23 will be as competitive. The Desmo is so well developed now it seems that there are only minor refinements going on such as the new start device/system. I also feel strongly that if Marc is running at the front, Ducati may be open to giving the customer bike updates.
I highly doubt it. This isn;t a different factory bike with a completely different concept under development. It will be a tried and trusted customer bike with a seasons worth of setup data and like Michael said below, Stoner got off the 2010 Ducati and 2 days later topped the Valencia test on the Honda that wasn't as good as the current Desmo.
He may also have an advantage early season of being on a known and developed bike with lots of setup data, while factory guys are still finding their feet.
Given the identity of his team-mate I don't think he will have any worries with the other side of the garage withholding information either.
When this question was asked about Rossi in 2011, the answer was a foregone conclusion, though many people hoped The Doctor would pull a rabbit from the hat.
Marc's situation is more nuanced. He's not taking any of his people with him, but presumably he won't be wasting time with head games because his teammate is his brother. Lack of team, but upgrading the relationship with the teammate means Marc will be at the sharp end occasionally, but I'm not sure he will really factor in the championship, though the press will try to make it appear that way.
Btw, where does this leave Puig? Barely a word has been said about him. I doubt he's going to Gresini, but without his apprentice, is Darth Puig on his way out of HRC and MotoGP?
Marc's situation is more nuanced. He's not taking any of his people with him, but presumably he won't be wasting time with head games because his teammate is his brother. Lack of team, but upgrading the relationship with the teammate means Marc will be at the sharp end occasionally, but I'm not sure he will really factor in the championship, though the press will try to make it appear that way.
Btw, where does this leave Puig? Barely a word has been said about him. I doubt he's going to Gresini, but without his apprentice, is Darth Puig on his way out of HRC and MotoGP?
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Joined Oct 2008
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In Cider
You can be sure that, privately, Alex is already giving Marc plenty of baseline information about the Ducati. I wouldn't be surprised if, like Rossi did in 2003, Marc has been snuck into the Gresini garage late one night and sat on the bike to get a feel for it.
Honda has gone downhill since Livio Suppo left and Darth Puig was hired. Whether that is a coincidence, I don't know. Has he tried to enact changes and felt the resistance of the Japanese? Iether way, it does not look good for him.
Honda has gone downhill since Livio Suppo left and Darth Puig was hired. Whether that is a coincidence, I don't know. Has he tried to enact changes and felt the resistance of the Japanese? Iether way, it does not look good for him.
Joined May 2009
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Shovel's Club
Puig should have been fired the moment he lied to Pedrosa causing him to splattered the air fence.
Big move, but he needed to. As said in the other thread, no Santi.
Though we will never know but would Rossi have had the same success when he left Honda had he done so without Burgess?
I think he will fight for the title but anyway it would be very nice to watch him against the current Jorge Martin who looks unbeatable, on equal terms. However, let's not fool ourselves. On the beginning of the next season MM will be already 31 yo. That 5 to 6 years difference can be enough to cost him 0.1 to 0.2 seconds per lap.
Joined Aug 2007
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Pomona NY
That presently, MM is at times placing higher than a mess of riders on better bikes and 5 - 7 years younger would see imply otherwise.
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