World Championship odds

It almost seemsthat "paddock talk" counts for more than stat's. Even though I'm a Stoner fan I would have thought the 4th last year counted for more

But then again its about the betting agencies not losing money, so I guess "paddock talk" must come into it.

WTF is Collie behind Haystack and Dipstickioso??

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Mick D @ Feb 25 2010, 04:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>WTF is Collie behind Haystack and Dipstickioso??

Ditto

WHy don't folk ever make a fuss about Edwards, the guy does well. Is he the best Ex-SBK rider to date?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Mick D @ Feb 24 2010, 10:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>WTF is Collie behind Haystack and Dipstickioso??

Gotta agree.  Given Hayden's Duc difficulties and the out-of-box speed displayed by this year's Yamaha, I'd place Mr. Tornado comfortably above both.

OTOH, consider the two on equal machinery, riding equally well.  Who gets your vote?  It's a tough call.

Nicky is capable of long strings of podium finishes, but hasn't done so in years.

Collin has been "Mr. 5th" place over the last two years, and isn't terribly far from becoming a podium regular.  

I think Hayden's focus is better, so I'd give him a narrow edge. 




IMO, Dovi's odds are 'optimistic' by a factor of 2 at the least. 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Geonerd @ Feb 25 2010, 04:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>IMO, Dovi's odds are 'optimistic' by a factor of 2 at the least. 
A factor of 2 puts Dovi on similar odds to Bautista, which is ludicrous.

Whilst I find it excessively unlikely Dovi will win the WC, I would not rate his chances as 7 times worse than Pedrosa, ie I think his odds are too long, not too short, especially after his performance yesterday.

I tempi alle ore 18

1. Rossi (Yamaha) 2.01.068 (giri 11 di 47)
2. Stoner (Ducati) 2.01.219 (29 di 33)
3. Dovizioso (Honda) 2.01.631 (36 di 52)
4. Capirossi (Suzuki) 2.01.687 (44 di 52)
5. Spies (Yamaha) 2.01.843 (41 di 42)
6. Edwards (Yamaha) 2.01.897 (14 di 35)

I agree that Edwards odds are too long though.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Geonerd @ Feb 25 2010, 04:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Gotta agree.  Given Hayden's Duc difficulties and the out-of-box speed displayed by this year's Yamaha, I'd place Mr. Tornado comfortably above both.

OTOH, consider the two on equal machinery, riding equally well.  Who gets your vote?  It's a tough call.

Nicky is capable of long strings of podium finishes, but hasn't done so in years.

Collin has been "Mr. 5th" place over the last two years, and isn't terribly far from becoming a podium regular.  

I think Hayden's focus is better, so I'd give him a narrow edge. 




IMO, Dovi's odds are 'optimistic' by a factor of 2 at the least. 

You mention the reasons there. The odds are not about positions, but about odds for winning the championship.
What's the odds for Edwards to rise from his comfortable 5th to regular podiums. He still hasn't taken one singe victory, even Hayden and Dovi can better that.
Obviously something has to klick for any of those to win but it could happen. For edwards, with 3 other great riders on the same bike, it's not going to happen..

Do betting agencies consider that, for example Americans got more money to make bigger bets? I mean, if Barros (Brazilian) still was around (he got four 4th places competing against Rossi in 2000, 2001, 2002 & 2004), and say he was at a Factory Honda leveled up with Hayden at a Factory Ducati, the fact that Hayden is American would influence the odds in favor to invoke gamblers to bet more money? After all a US$1,000 dollar bet is easier for an American gambler to be placed than a Brazilian… Or am I just crazy to consider that betting agencies take these factors into account to induce more money flow?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VHMP01 @ Feb 26 2010, 07:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Do betting agencies consider that, for example Americans got more money to make bigger bets? I mean, if Barros (Brazilian) still was around (he got four 4th places competing against Rossi in 2000, 2001, 2002 & 2004), and say he was at a Factory Honda leveled up with Hayden at a Factory Ducati, the fact that Hayden is American would influence the odds in favor to invoke gamblers to bet more money? After all a US$1,000 dollar bet is easier for an American gambler to be placed than a Brazilian… Or am I just crazy to consider that betting agencies take these factors into account to induce more money flow?

I surprise no one here know foe sure so I'll just go out on a limb here, probably will get an overhauling from Jumkie when he has googled the right words
Anyway, form what I've heard the agencies set an initial odds, but that change depending on how people bet. Putting a huge sum on an outsider can make the odds drop a lot. Of course this will depend on the overall money going into the game and so on, but I think that's the basics.
It woks better then you might think because Money talks. It doesn't matter what people say here and elsewhere, it's when they put their money on something you see how strong their belief is.

Lorenzo at 6 to 1 is a good outside bet

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Feb 26 2010, 04:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I surprise no one here know foe sure so I'll just go out on a limb here, probably will get an overhauling from Jumkie when he has googled the right words
Anyway, form what I've heard the agencies set an initial odds, but that change depending on how people bet. Putting a huge sum on an outsider can make the odds drop a lot. Of course this will depend on the overall money going into the game and so on, but I think that's the basics.
It woks better then you might think because Money talks. It doesn't matter what people say here and elsewhere, it's when they put their money on something you see how strong their belief is.

Thanks Babel, I am pretty sure there could be 1000 bets from Brazilian’s adding up say US$10,000 and suddenly an American places a US$25,000 bet and all odds change. I could be wrong though, but it is kind of logical that the equations consider as many factors as possible, meaning ‘The House NEVER Looses’!

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Feb 25 2010, 03:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Is he the best Ex-SBK rider to date?
No. Simple as, really. I'm a big fan of Edwards, but I think I'd probably give the title of Best Ex-SBKer to the man who's won a WC. Unless of course you're limiting the term "SBKer" to just World Superbikes, in which case Edwards probably would be the best.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (chopperman @ Feb 26 2010, 01:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Lorenzo at 6 to 1 is a good outside bet

Rog, not sure whether you say in jest or not but I reckon these are good odds for JL although as a non-betting man I bet you a case of nothing (loser to send by email) that he doesn't win -




Gaz

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Austin @ Feb 26 2010, 03:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>No. Simple as, really. I'm a big fan of Edwards, but I think I'd probably give the title of Best Ex-SBKer to the man who's won a WC. Unless of course you're limiting the term "SBKer" to just World Superbikes, in which case Edwards probably would be the best.

Austin, I take it that the term SBKer was more directed at WSBKer but then again I guess the next definition is to determine whats makes him the best.

I say that as whilst CE has achieved podium results, only one WSBK rider has won a race (and even then, after returning to WSBK and back to MGP for a guest ride), that rider of course being Bayliss. If to be the best you need to win, than hands down TB is/was/has been better than CE at MGP.

But, do or can I say that in all seriousness - nope as one race win does not make one the best as (according to many) to be the best and considered a champion you have to back up and win multiple times

So again, CE can't be the best.

The best ex-SBK (not WorldSBK) would probably have been MD with Rainey, Lawson etc in there as well - IMO.

In MGP, yep, only one SBK rider (be it world or national levels) has won a championship so yes, should be Hayden.






Gaz

i got 5 on Spies

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Gaz @ Feb 27 2010, 09:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Rog, not sure whether you say in jest or not but I reckon these are good odds for JL although as a non-betting man I bet you a case of nothing (loser to send by email) that he doesn't win -




Gaz
not jest mate. I actually think for the odds this is a good bet. I think betting against rossi is not to wise if its large money cos you stand to double up but lorenzo is a champion contender i think and at these odds you stand to make a good return without risking to much. Im not a betting man myself but 6 to 1 on lorenzo surprised me,

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (chopperman @ Feb 27 2010, 10:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>not jest mate. I actually think for the odds this is a good bet. I think betting against rossi is not to wise if its large money cos you stand to double up but lorenzo is a champion contender i think and at these odds you stand to make a good return without risking to much. Im not a betting man myself but 6 to 1 on lorenzo surprised me,
Obviously it's surprising others too. Lorenzo's odds are shortening - now between 5/1 and 7/2 depending on the bookie.

OddsChecker

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (yamaka46 @ Feb 28 2010, 08:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Obviously it's surprising others too. Lorenzo's odds are shortening - now between 5/1 and 7/2 depending on the bookie.

OddsChecker
I don't think the odds were generous in regard to rossi imo whom I cannot see him beating, other than by misadventure to valentino, riding for the same team. There is some chance stoner may beat rossi particularly given that he has done it before, and given that ducati could have come up with something again and that stoner does not have the task of setting up a bike developed for and by rossi better than rossi can. As a successful occasional betting man rossi should be a more pronounced favourite than he is, although obviously I hope stoner wins; the year he did win he was at long odds pre-season which may explain the caution of the bookmakers.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (michaelm @ Feb 28 2010, 12:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I don't think the odds were generous in regard to rossi imo whom I cannot see him beating, other than by misadventure to valentino, riding for the same team. There is some chance stoner may beat rossi particularly given that he has done it before, and given that ducati could have come up with something again and that stoner does not have the task of setting up a bike developed for and by rossi better than rossi can. As a successful occasional betting man rossi should be a more pronounced favourite than he is, although obviously I hope stoner wins; the year he did win he was at long odds pre-season which may explain the caution of the bookmakers.
I think that the odds are pretty close at the moment between Rossi and Stoner and I'd say that's about right. Rossi may have been slightly quicker than Stoner on all 4 practice days so far, but Rossi's bike is a "simple" evolution of last years whereas the engine characteristics of Stoners bike have changed significantly. Disregarding possible sandbagging (which I find extremely unlikely with the limited testing available) Sepang was always a track more suited to the Yam and less to the Duke. Should we find that Rossi's advantage over Stoner (small though it is) remains at Qatar, then the bookies might like to re-think. Until then, whilst I would like Rossi to make it number 10 and you'd like Stoner to win again, I think that the odds being about even (that one or the other of us will be right) is correct. Lorenzo's odds, on the other hand, still seem a little long in comparison given his consistency (when he stayed on) last year.

Just make the racing good - talking about odds is fine for the off-season.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Gaz @ Feb 27 2010, 09:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I say that as whilst CE has achieved podium results, only one WSBK rider has won a race (and even then, after returning to WSBK and back to MGP for a guest ride), that rider of course being Bayliss. If to be the best you need to win, than hands down TB is/was/has been better than CE at MGP.



CV @ Le Mans Gaz?