He may win it / he may not win it.
At the moment it's looking as if he won't win it, and lose it to a certain Nicky Hayden and possibly Dani Pedrosa if he keeps riding the way he does.
The season isn't over till they cross the line at the final race on this year's calender, so from now to that time we could see another accident like what happened at Barcalona (Catalan GP), which could put some top names out of riding for a long time again (aka Hayden and Pedrosa). Then again, this is just as likely to happen to Valentino as it is to Jóse Luis Cardoso, so you cannot possibly guarantee that will happen.
Valentino obviously plays about in qualifying because he and we know that when he's spot on form he can come through the field and take the win and even have time to mess about for the fan's amusement on the final lap.
However, if the championship stays as it is now I either reckon that Nicky Hayden or Dani Pedrosa will end up the victor, then Rossi in 3rd. . .or that Hayden will win it and Rossi finish 2nd come the end.
Anyway, this thread has obviously turned into a great debate and I hope my post ends it.