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Pedrosa's Last Chance To Be Champion?

Kropotkin
3403781358007059


Pedrosa will be champ. The Honda's sorted, and he has his mojo. Lorenzo 2nd, Marquez 3rd. Marquez will win at least 2 races. He will also miss at least 1 race under the penalty points system. Do not underestimate Marquez, he is the best rider to come into the series since Rossi/Stoner.


 


I am surprised that you don't even have Rossi in your top 3.  I have predicted him to win the WC.  Why have you and 99% of the rest given up on him?  
 
Jumkie
3403911358014641

 

 

 

Speaking of which, I don't underestimate the power of the league to pave the way for their chosen darlings. Lets examine those supremely talented rider when they were promoted: Pedro to factory, Rossi to non-factory factory, Marquez to factory (after the timely elimination of a rule specifically prohibiting it) and of course Stone, oh wait, he went straight to a satellite, interesting.   Its never hurt that Albert and Carmelo are golf buddies.  But you dont subscribe to such conspiracies.  Pedro has had every possible advantage since he was promoted to the première class and has done .... with it in terms of the ultimate prize.  He melted down at PI last year on his own and I will be hoping the same .... happens this year.  But I am under no illusion that the league will be leveling the playing field, as had been suggested in reverse direction starting last season.  The sudden elimination of the rookie rule (despite the ........ reasons given, and far worse...believed) are no coincidence as Pedro has not delivered.  HRC need a champ.  With the retirement of Stoner, perhaps its time to 'let' HRC have one, eh.   :)

 

 

Counterpoint....


just to poke a hole in your argument, i think we all realise that there is favouritism, but those riders you mentioned there all had showed huge dominance in the smaller classes and had WC's under their belts already. Stoner did not. hence the factory (or non factory rides).
 
thedeal
3403601357978308


I dont think its his last chance but it may be his last chance at hrc.


 


Well, where else is he supposed to do it?  JL has Yam on lock down, so he isn't go there.  Who knows if Duc will ever get it sorted.  No other bikes on the grid will have the capability of winning the championship.
 
digger
3403991358025121

Speaking of which, I don't underestimate the power of the league to pave the way for their chosen darlings. Lets examine those supremely talented rider when they were promoted: Pedro to factory, Rossi to non-factory factory, Marquez to factory (after the timely elimination of a rule specifically prohibiting it) and of course Stone, oh wait, he went straight to a satellite, interesting. Its never hurt that Albert and Carmelo are golf buddies. But you dont subscribe to such conspiracies. Pedro has had every possible advantage since he was promoted to the premi貥 class and has done .... with it in terms of the ultimate prize. He melted down at PI last year on his own and I will be hoping the same .... happens this year. But I am under no illusion that the league will be leveling the playing field, as had been suggested in reverse direction starting last season. The sudden elimination of the rookie rule (despite the ........ reasons given, and far worse...believed) are no coincidence as Pedro has not delivered. HRC need a champ. With the retirement of Stoner, perhaps its time to 'let' HRC have one, eh. :)



Counterpoint....


just to poke a hole in your argument, i think we all realise that there is favouritism, but those riders you mentioned there all had showed huge dominance in the smaller classes and had WC's under their belts already. Stoner did not. hence the factory (or non factory rides).
U may have missed the nuance in my post. Puig help Stoner...be runner up to Pedros. I think u advanced my point. :)
 
eltoro
3404001358026009


 


Well, where else is he supposed to do it?  JL has Yam on lock down, so he isn't go there.  Who knows if Duc will ever get it sorted.  No other bikes on the grid will have the capability of winning the championship.


He has the clown back and 2013 is going to be a strange year for him,Yamaha allowed him to be treated very badly at times when Rossi was last there and we know he didnt want him back,im not sure how it will go we will have to see.
 
Mental Anarchist
3403971358024417


 


I am surprised that you don't even have Rossi in your top 3.  I have predicted him to win the WC.  Why have you and 99% of the rest given up on him?  


 


I haven't given up on him. He'll win a few races, and constantly worry the top 3. But Lorenzo and Pedrosa have moved on, while Rossi was treading water at Ducati, he'll need a year to get his mojo back. And Marquez is like Rossi was when he was 21, hungry, and ruthless. Pit the 34-year-old Rossi against the 21-year-old Rossi, and I'll put my money on the young 'un every time.


 


If Rossi is going to win a championship, I give him more chance in 2014 than in 2013.
 
povol
3403751358002316


Not his last chance, but maybe his best chance. The cards are stacked, and unless Dorna ..... around with the regs again this year, the Honda is the bike to beat. It ended up being the best bike last year, and is only getting better. <u>If they are smart, they will sand bag, ..... and moan about everything during testing. If they come out and show the same dominance they showed last year in testing< Uncle Ezzzy and cousin Capi, might just come to  rescue  the show.. </u>If Nakamoto is telling the truth, and they have   improved the chassis to where even Dani feels comfy, look out. Yamaha seems incapable at this point in development to throw more HP at the M1, if the Honda is now close to equal in the chassis department, Yamaha is .......


 


Fully agree that they've got to watch out for another last-minute rule screwing. This plays into Pedrosa's personality and approach. He's not as flashy as Stoner, and tends to sneak up on the weekend, rather than try to blitz the field in the first 3 laps of FP1.  Impression is everything! (screw reality!)  If Peddles looks only competitive, or maybe marginally faster, in the pre-season testing, Honda should be able to avoid any (more) political BS shoved down their throat under the guise of 'safety.' 


 


I think Honda is going to fully unleash the motor at the faster tracks.  They were toying with higher revs toward the end of 2012, and one gets the impression they can raise the redline quite a bit if they feel the need.  We won't see Qatar 2007 speed differences, but Marquez (he's even smaller than Peddles, isn't he?) will continue to pass 'lesser' riders with ease.  (Or maybe they'll soften his engine a tad, all the better to avoid unwanted attention, and (attempt to) keep MM from getting too racy too soon.)
 
Kropotkin
3404051358027005


 


I haven't given up on him. He'll win a few races, and constantly worry the top 3. But Lorenzo and Pedrosa have moved on, while Rossi was treading water at Ducati, he'll need a year to get his mojo back. And Marquez is like Rossi was when he was 21, hungry, and ruthless. Pit the 34-year-old Rossi against the 21-year-old Rossi, and I'll put my money on the young 'un every time.


 


If Rossi is going to win a championship, I give him more chance in 2014 than in 2013.


 


I think that Rossi's hunger and confidence once he gets back on the Yamaha are being under-rated.  I think both of these will make up for the development in Lorenzo's and Pedrosa's abilities over the past 2 years.  I think another tool in Rossi's bag is that Pedrosa and Lorenzo have become used to the respect they show each other during races.  It has become very 'nice'.  Rossi is not 'nice' and will show them no respect.  I don't think either will handle it well and it will affect their riding significantly.  Throw Marquez in there as well and the 2013 race track is going to be a major shock for Pedrosa and Lorenzo.  


 


If Marquez is as good as you say then 2014 will be his year.  I think Rossi knows this and knows 2013 is his last chance to make it 10.  With Stoner back on the grid in 2014 on Pedrosa's RCV, Rossi won't stand a chance.
 
JohnnyKnockdown
3403951358021848


Ive found that determining the chances of winning the championship can easily be equated using a simple mathematical equation.

Ive applied this formula to Pedrosa this year and this is what i have come up with

Billion dollars of development x. 130 mph catapult - Gravel pit. -

Terminal velocity impact. - Collar bone = SSDY ( same .... different yr)


This formula is tried and tested to be true. Take a look at the results when applied to Lorenzo and stoner last year.

Lorenzo

Lack of horsepower. x. Heart x 1 billion x work ethic x Focus x Arrogance squared - Nothing = Champion


Stoner

Best bike on the grid. x 10 million dollars. x. Negative heart - Negative intestinal fortitude - Negative mental strength. - Negative work ethic. - ...... attitude = 3rd place


 


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wtf-did-i-just-read-thumb.jpg
 
[quote name="Mental Anarchist" post="340407" time="1358029373"] 
I think that Rossi's hunger and confidence once he gets back on the Yamaha are being under-rated.  I think both of these will make up for the development in Lorenzo's and Pedrosa's abilities over the past 2 years.  I think another tool in Rossi's bag is that Pedrosa and Lorenzo have become used to the respect they show each other during races.  It has become very 'nice'.  Rossi is not 'nice' and will show them no respect.  I don't think either will handle it well and it will affect their riding significantly.  Throw Marquez in there as well and the 2013 race track is going to be a major shock for Pedrosa and Lorenzo.  
 
If Marquez is as good as you say then 2014 will be his year.  I think Rossi knows this and knows 2013 is his last chance to make it 10.  With Stoner back on the grid in 2014 on Pedrosa's RCV, Rossi won't stand a chance.[/quote]

Rossi vs Marquez is going to be awesome, predator vs alien. Stoner will not come out of retirement.
 
povol
3403751358002316


Not his last chance, but maybe his best chance. The cards are stacked, and unless Dorna ..... around with the regs again this year, the Honda is the bike to beat. It ended up being the best bike last year, and is only getting better. If they are smart, they will sand bag, ..... and moan about everything during testing. If they come out and show the same dominance they showed last year in testing< Uncle Ezzzy and cousin Capi, might just come to  rescue  the show.. If Nakamoto is telling the truth, and they have   improved the chassis to where even Dani feels comfy, look out. Yamaha seems incapable at this point in development to throw more HP at the M1, if the Honda is now close to equal in the chassis department, Yamaha is .......


Don't see him winning ever; with a  fairly injury-free 2012 season he still had both bad luck (misano/back of grid start race) and a tendency to meltdown (PI race) even in his 7th factory hrc premier class season. I just don't think he is ever going to have sufficient luck and composure. 
 
JohnnyKnockdown
3403951358021848


Ive found that determining the chances of winning the championship can easily be equated using a simple mathematical equation.

Ive applied this formula to Pedrosa this year and this is what i have come up with

Billion dollars of development x. 130 mph catapult - Gravel pit. -

Terminal velocity impact. - Collar bone = SSDY ( same .... different yr)


This formula is tried and tested to be true. Take a look at the results when applied to Lorenzo and stoner last year.

Lorenzo

Lack of horsepower. x. Heart x 1 billion x work ethic x Focus x Arrogance squared - Nothing = Champion


Stoner

Best bike on the grid. x 10 million dollars. x. Negative heart - Negative intestinal fortitude - Negative mental strength. - Negative work ethic. - ...... attitude = 3rd place


I was once considered to have reasonable mathematical ability which has perhaps waned, but would still be interested to know purely from a mathematical standpoint how this formula applied in the 2007 and 2011 seasons, or to any of stoner's race wins on the ducati for that matter.
 
Even though Pedrobot has emerged as someone who can now battle more instead of getting out front and then eventually falling back, I don't think he has the stones to be champ.  It may happen, but it just seems as though he doesn't have that killer instinct, he is way to subdued.  I have come a long way in my appriciation for Dani.  I never really liked him in any capacity, but he has started to win me over in his tenacious attitude and will to take the fight to the field.  I don't know if he has that fight for every single race though.  It seems to me he has his places where you know he is going to dominate, do well, and the rest are a question mark.  The kid is fast no doubt, but is he fast for the entire race when faced with adversity, using racecraft, just sheer will to win time and time again?  I don't know.  Personally I hope not, cause I want a Ducati rider to win it haha. 
 
Jumkie
3403871358012072


 


Uhm, I think you just did genius.  You compared then say you will not compare them.  Breathtaking.


 


 


Wow, you must be a mathematician to come up with such insightful odds.  There are only 4 competitive bikes that are title worthy, one of them will be ridden by a rookie with limited experience in the class as you surmised yourself.  That leaves 3 bikes capable of wining the title, and you come up with a 1:3 chance?  Amazing, you must be a rocket scientist.


And you are just being a childish little ...... Grow up.


 


Or do you want this to descend to your level for every post YOU make as well. I am happy to oblige, but I suspect you won't like it so much when your posts are dissected and critiqued to the level you think is appropriate in others.


 


As well, I doubt many other PS members would appreciate the .....-fest. Ball's in your court, if you have any.
 
I read that last time Lorenzo and Rossi were team mates it got so bad they literally built a wall between them in the garage, I mean if it did get that bad then it's not going to be a good atmosphere for either of them and will be something of a distraction that could give the Honda team an advantage. Are they likely to get on any better this time around at Yamaha and more interestingly, which guy will the team favour, their current champion or the man they all seem to clamour to for some reason?


 


If Yamaha do let things go bad with their riders again Pedrosa should be laughing all the way to the title I'd say.
 
Lyria
3404331358061509


I read that last time Lorenzo and Rossi were team mates it got so bad they literally built a wall between them in the garage, I mean if it did get that bad then it's not going to be a good atmosphere for either of them and will be something of a distraction that could give the Honda team an advantage. Are they likely to get on any better this time around at Yamaha and more interestingly, which guy will the team favour, their current champion or the man they all seem to clamour to for some reason?


 


If Yamaha do let things go bad with their riders again Pedrosa should be laughing all the way to the title I'd say.


 


That's not entirely how it happened. When Rossi switched to Bridgestones and Lorenzo was still on the Michelins the tire manufactures made the wall go up. But when the both had Bridgestones the next season the wall stayed. Jorge was getting too fast for Valentino's liking and Vale didn't want data sharing. And by then they weren't exactly exchanging christmas cards.


 


No wall this year. I imagine they will be treated equally, development being favored towards Jorge, which makes the most amount of sense in my mind.
 

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