MotoGp 2012 Rnd1 Qatar FP.Quali.Predictions

Gaz said:

No, Honda aren't in trouble because Stoner got beaten for pole, just as they weren't in trouble when the same thing happened in 2011.



But, given that the top six consists of 4 x Yamaha, 1 x Ducati and 1 x Honda where that Honda is ridden by Stoner and on a track where his results have been sensational for a number of years, to me that is cause for concern at Qatar. It is not necessarily cause for concern for the season but if the pattern were to continue then absolutely there is an issue and it is incumbent to ensure that the issue is recognised (just as I suspect that heads are cranking to solve it now).

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I suspect if Stoner would have nabbed pole we wouldnt be having this conversation and all the fear would have been in an alternate universe. Casey for the pole and win at Qatar is highly likely NOT a foregone conclusion. Geez boys, u guys sound like he got robbed rome some right. Haha



Honda had 4 factory bikes, now only two. One of those riders was arrested this week. Maybe just maybe his head is not straight. The other Honda is ridden by a rookie new to the class, while the other Honda is ridden by Bautista who many "thought/think" hes great though in my opinion, DePuniet had a bit to say about that. That basically leaves us with one solid Honda rider for today.



Did u read what Stoner said after qual? He said he went the wrong direction in set up? Does that sound like a design problem? He also admitted they didnt use the soft all weekend, so when they slapped it on, it was in effect using it blindly. At very least, there was some predicting factor involve. Does that sound like a design problem. Well, at least u agree that Honda is not in trouble, but the tone of a few Stoner fans is hilarious. As a Nicky fan, i wish i had ur guys problem. Hahaha.

J4rn0 said:

I'm no rider's "fan". I only care about reality and I admire the riders who've got that unique talent (that's why Stoner also is in my fav riders list since 2007).



It is because I have always been fully aware of Rossi's talent, that I cannot stand him allowing himself to be beaten by Abrahams and Barbera. If he has lost the sacred fire (something bound to happen sooner or later), he should acknowledge it and draw the consequences. Heck, there's no 'strategy' or 'bike setup' that can justify Rossi not being faster than Barbera or Abraham.



I wouldn't justify Stoner being beaten by Bradl or Bautista, so why should I justify Rossi being beaten by satellite Ducatis? Come on.

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Sacred fire? J4no, ive alway correctly pegged u a bopper, though u tried ur best to be a closet bopper. But like mist closet anything, the truth is usually hanging on on shoulder. I dont know what is it about that worship mentality, but it sure is uglier when the object of their worship has "failed" them.



Boys, get a grip. We throw out words like "alien" and now i see some peeps actually believe it literally. Stoner missed pole by a wink of an eye. Likewise, Rossi is human, and 'may' (event still not over) have had a bad event. Ducati has a way of breaking spirits (except maybe Hayden).



Why the .... have i been defending Rossi to boppers and calming the nerves of neo-boppers? Jesus H Christ! I must be losing my mind.



(Well actually, its past midnight, and im getting ready for race. Prob no sleep for me tonight. Been cleaning the pad for hours. I might be only dude that has a Superbowl style BBQ for season GP opener in the States. And MY guy isnt even suppose to finish top 5. Man, im glad i dont misplace my hope like some people around here. )

Jumkie said:

Sacred fire? J4no, ive alway correctly pegged u a bopper, though u tried ur best to be a closet bopper. But like mist closet anything, the truth is usually hanging on on shoulder. I dont know what is it about that worship mentality, but it sure is uglier when the object of their worship has "failed" them.



Boys, get a grip. We throw out words like "alien" and now i see some peeps actually believe it literally. Stoner missed pole by a wink of an eye. Likewise, Rossi is human, and 'may' (event still not over) have had a bad event. Ducati has a way of breaking spirits (except maybe Hayden).



Why the .... have i been defending Rossi to boppers and calming the nerves of neo-boppers? Jesus H Christ! I must be losing my mind.



(Well actually, its past midnight, and im getting ready for race. Prob no sleep for me tonight. Been cleaning the pad for hours. I might be only dude that has a Superbowl style BBQ for season GP opener in the States. And MY guy isnt even suppose to finish top 5. Man, im glad i dont misplace my hope like some people around here. )

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Again in English this time please...



I agree with you sentiments poor language and all. I think Rossi will finish in a reasonable position relative to his poor quali effort. I also think that Ducati will have a better machine over the course of this season than they had last.

Rossi and Hayden will finish 1-2, as the Ducati is now the fastest bike.



Last time that there was a new bike spec and the Ducati had a speed advantage, it was destined to win the championship, no matter who was riding it. I read it here (many times), so it must be true.



ps 1: Casey sounds concerned about the chatter, even though he will race on the harder tires with less chatter. Is there really a problem? Casey thinks so and Krop thinks so..............



ps 2; David/ Krop, as far as I am aware you have given no update on the ducatis engine capacity. So it is 999cc ? What did your sound analysis indicate?

Jumkie said:

I suspect if Stoner would have nabbed pole we wouldnt be having this conversation and all the fear would have been in an alternate universe. Casey for the pole and win at Qatar is highly likely NOT a foregone conclusion. Geez boys, u guys sound like he got robbed rome some right. Haha

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Good to see I am now of of the 'guys' as you so put it, but tell me where I mention or even insinuate that Stoner was robbed of pole as personally I get sick of him always getting pole . Fact is he got beaten as I said Jums, just as he did in 2011 and will in 2012, the perfect year does not exist any longer in terms of pole positions or race wins and hopefully we will see an imperfect year from all major players that keeps things close.



Now, as for if he had gotten pole (let us assume he and Lorenzo swapped sports only), hell yes I would still be concerned as for a bike that people seem to think is supreme, his team-mate is still way to low given the ability of his team-mate and irrespective of off track issues.



There are 4 Yamaha's to 1 Honda in the top 6 which will be a problem should those numbers keep up and given where the Honda had looked to be in recent testing (and it goes to show the good work of Yamaha).







Honda had 4 factory bikes, now only two. One of those riders was arrested this week. Maybe just maybe his head is not

Jumkie said:

straight. The other Honda is ridden by a rookie new to the class, while the other Honda is ridden by Bautista who many "thought/think" hes great though in my opinion, DePuniet had a bit to say about that. That basically leaves us with one solid Honda rider for today.

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True, Pedrosa may have other things on his mind but conversely he is now somewhere he has has total confidence in his ability and this to me would place him in a better mindset (without knowing the media push at press conferences).



Given that he has also complained of similar issues I dare say there may be an issue.



As for Bradl, impressive (IMO) while Bautista I feel will continue to be an inconsistent performer for some time as whilst he no doubt has immense talent, I am yet to feel that he will achieve supreme consistency which will take him that next step (Bradl will do better - IMO)

Jumkie said:

Did u read what Stoner said after qual? He said he went the wrong direction in set up? Does that sound like a design problem? He also admitted they didnt use the soft all weekend, so when they slapped it on, it was in effect using it blindly. At very least, there was some predicting factor involve. Does that sound like a design problem. Well, at least u agree that Honda is not in trouble, but the tone of a few Stoner fans is hilarious. As a Nicky fan, i wish i had ur guys problem. Hahaha.

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Yep, read that they tried stuff that did not work (same with Rossi) but my issue is not with Stoner as such as he is not in a bad position, my concern is with the remaining Honda's by comparison to Yamaha.



Or, let me put it this way, remove Stoner from the picture and the Hondas (all of them) are mixing it with the Ducati's which are by no means the pick of the crop in terms of bike performance.



As an aside and I am to lazy to check but I wonder how long it has been since we have had qualifying numbers like this with 4xYamaha and 1xHonda in the top 6?



As for NIcky I am genuinely a bit confused but place as I do Honda.



If he continues to put these type of performances in then fantastic and it would seem that he has found the 'essence' of the Ducati, but alternately could this be an aberration of reality (?), time will be the judge.

Jumkie said:

Seriously, we're going to debate whether or not the Honda & Stoner are in trouble? With all do respect my friend...WTF?!? Where have all the sane people gone?

So let me get this straight, Stoner has led every single test, every single session, ever single practice, with the same Honda and the same tires, but ur gonna base ur entire premise that theyre in "trouble" based on the last 3 mins of qual where Stoner admitted to setting issues, and where Lorenzo, a previous pole setter, barely edged him out as time ran out?



Well ...., Ducati should pack up and go home if Honda is in trouble. I think the problem here is expectation. U and a few others might think its a foregone conclusion. Thing is these guys are not robots and computers. The world is not ending because Stoner didnt get pole at Qatar.

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No, I don't think the season is a foregone conclusion, even leaving out anyone else I think lorenzo is extremely good and capable of riding a nearly perfect season on a good bike (my evidence being that he did so in 2010), hence my angst after the jerez incident last year with stoner's net 30 point loss; my feeling was that lorenzo might come second in every race stoner won meaning 6 wins would be required to regain the points and I think stoner had some concern in that regard as well.



It is up to stoner and honda to sort the chatter if it is a major problem, and again it is their problem if the new tyres which were produced in response to the request of the riders last year don't suit them as well either. To be completely honest my concern is not about stoner being nobbled by the tyre or weight rule changes which are obviously the same for all teams and riders but that those who have argued that stoner develops bikes backwards might be proven correct. My current quite possibly biased view is that he is not responsible for the existence of the chatter in the first place, although it is obviously up to him and honda to fix it, and up to him to deal with it in the short term.



My memory did play me false a little; he actually wasn't on pole for the 2007 and 2008 races which he won (the pole winners were on michelin qualifiers), but the facts are that he could get even the lcr honda in 2006 and the ducati gp10 pig on to pole; Qatar and PI would seem to be his best circuits. I bow to few in zeal as fan, but that doesn't extend to getting up at 3am Sydney time to watch qp (global nuclear warfare wouldn't necessarily induce me to rise at that hour); I read the reports and looked at the analysis and the very few laps he ran. If he says he was following a wrong set-up direction then that is a relief to me.



You surely must know by now I don't claim to be unbiased; I am happy for stoner to win closely but him winning easily is certainly preferable to him losing as far as I am concerned .

Jumkie said:

Looks like Arrabi was right about Cal. Now on a man bike, he can prove himself.

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Absolutely - and with Bradley already signed for next year he has to finish above Dovi plain and simple - no pressure then? I've been a great fan of Cal since he first emerged in the inaugural R6 cup as runner up to Tommy Hill in '03. Cal was weaned on production based machinery - this is still the unforgiving sport of Moto GP, but we predicted the move to a 1 litre class would better accommodate his style. He freely admits that he lacked the finesse essential to master the 800c bike and the uncanny levels of natural talent imbued in many of his counterparts through a lifetime on the dirt or prototype machinery. Perhaps if the raft of proposed changes currently being floated by Dorna are designed to swell the grid - they will achieve the same effect by not only reducing cost but by making the class more amenable to riders such as Cal. He's determined to prove his detractors wrong and has no intention of 'doing the walk of shame' back into the Superbike paddock just yet. That said, his first pre season, when he was drowning in a sea of set up, rock hard bridgestones plus an entirely new counter intuitive braking technique to learn, alongside the razor sharp precision of the 800cc machine together with the prospect of so many unfamiliar circuits he found the switch from a superbike so abasing that he felt like walking at that nightmare first test in Sepang...and that's not Cal's nature. He was very good around Qatar on a Superbike, so we'll see during the course of the year. Crutchlow has huge potential but I can't see him outperforming Dovi this year. I do however believe that he will be retained in the paddock and probably the class. He's popular, gritty, has oceans of new found self belief and confidence and is incredibly brave. I predict a relatively processional split field today - we'll see what pace Cal is capable of maintaining throughout the race.



Not meaning to state the obvious - but I really feel that the crucial deciding factor this year will be the riders ability to respond to fading tyres during the second half of the races. As Goatboy said earlier in this thread - many were quick to crucify Rossi on Friday but who's the past master when it comes to managing a worn tyre? I'm not expecting the second coming yet but the Boppers certainly need to keep the faith - which I think to be fair the true fans of Vale on here certainly have. My gripe was that 90% were bandwagon glory hunters and simply aren't interested when their team isn't winning. .... off and support Man Utd instead. I'm not expecting Valentino to be resurrected this Sunday but I do think a significant boulder has been rolled away. Unlike last season - things can only get exponentially better!!!

Arrabbiata1 said:

Absolutely - and with Bradley already signed for next year he has to finish above Dovi plain and simple - no pressure then? I've been a great fan of Cal since he first emerged in the inaugural R6 cup as runner up to Tommy Hill in '03. Cal was weaned on production based machinery - this is still the unforgiving sport of Moto GP, but we predicted the move to a 1 litre class would better accommodate his style. He freely admits that he lacked the finesse essential to master the 800c bike and the uncanny levels of natural talent imbued in many of his counterparts through a lifetime on the dirt or prototype machinery. Perhaps if the raft of proposed changes currently being floated by Dorna are designed to swell the grid - they will achieve the same effect by not only reducing cost but by making the class more amenable to riders such as Cal. He's determined to prove his detractors wrong and has no intention of 'doing the walk of shame' back into the Superbike paddock just yet. That said last year when he was drowning in a sea of set up, rock hard bridgestones plus an entirely new counter intuitive braking technique to learn, alongside the razor sharp precision of the 800cc machine together with the prospect of so many unfamiliar circuits he found the switch from a superbike so abasing that he felt like walking at that nightmare first test in Sepang...and that's not Cal's nature. He was very good around Qatar on a Superbike, so we'll see during the course of the year. Crutchlow has huge potential but I can't see him outperforming Dovi this year. I do however believe that he will be retained in the paddock and probably the class. He's popular, gritty, has oceans of new found self belief and confidence and is incredibly brave. I predict a relatively processional split field today - we'll see what pace Cal is capable of maintaining throughout the race.



Not meaning to state the obvious - but I really feel that the crucial deciding factor this year will be the riders ability to respond to fading tyres during the second half of the races. As Goatboy said earlier in this thread - many were quick to crucify Rossi on Friday but who's the past master when it comes to managing a worn tyre? I'm not expecting the second coming yet but the Boppers certainly need to keep the faith - which I think to be fair the true fans of Vale on here certainly have. My gripe was that 90% were bandwagon glory hunters and simply aren't interested when their team isn't winning. .... off and support Man Utd instead. I'm not expecting Valentino to be resurrected this Sunday but I do think a significant boulder has been rolled away. Unlike last season - things can only get exponentially better!!!

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.... me Arrab, I didn't expect you to be able to even open your eyes yet after yesterday's all day beer session let alone pen the above essay. I too think Dovi will finish the season above Cal in the points standing. My expectation is a much improved season for Vale.



Me and Levi will see you later mate

Willski said:

.... me Arrab, I didn't expect you to be able to even open your eyes yet after yesterday's all day beer session let alone pen the above essay. I too think Dovi will finish the season above Cal in the points standing. My expectation is a much improved season for Vale.



Me and Levi will see you later mate

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As usual, It's the curry that's currently taking its evil toll not the beer. I wrote the last post on the John.



In spite of that - we're all set here - see you in a few hours Wills.

just some short thoughts..



I am expecting a good race between Stoner and Lorenzo. The fact that the chatter should be less pronounced on the hard tires and diminish even further as the tire degrades leaves room for some interesting scenarios: Lorenzo dominating first part of the race, with Stoner catching up (maybe too late). Or both going head2head, then Stoner can break away. Or it's gonna be totally different, but these two scenarios seem to be the most likely to me.



As for the 'intrinsic' chatter issues of the Honda: Stoner dominating on the hard tire and being slightly off the pace on the soft shows that the problem is at least managable. And surely Honda will react, as Bridgestone might be as well. The situation will be clearer on tracks where different compounds will be used (I strongly assume that there will be more than only two compounds to fit all the different tracks). One question to this: are Bradl and/or Bautista complaining about chatter as well?



The sat Yams look to be strong, although I assume them to be closer to each other as far as race pace is concerned. As for Cal vs Dovi, I think it's a matter of Cal being consistent. Because Dovi clearly can be. Not the fastest, but surely consistent - and that makes him hard to beat points wise over a whole season.



The Ducs are confusing me. Good to see Hayden being in the mix, I hope he can take some of the speed over the race distance, though this seems to be questionable. Rossi seems to be deep in the ..... And the way he gets treated by the team is pissing me off. He got beaten by everyone on a prototype, including his team mate and the two sat riders, which aren't widely counted to be really fast. He must learn to adapt to what's there, instead of demanding ever more changes that are confusing everyone (including him and JB) and eat up all money, hurting Ducati's overall effort big time. They surely seem lost. And I don't need anyone telling me crap about him chasing race pace and Nicky going for a qual lap. Because his laptime on hard tires is still >1.5sec off the pace, and it's nothing but embarassing. Of course, we must wait for the race, and I would be delighted to see him perform somewhat reasonably, maybe even breaking into the Top6. But I doubt it - and even if he does, that's far too low for a second season in a factory squad that is directing all their efforts towards him, and that were able to win races until he arrived. If he is not able to improve substantially over last year, then Ducati should take all their pride together and sack him mid-season. In particular if he gets outperformed by his team mate or the sat riders. (Again I want to stress that I really hope that he will fare much better come this race, and the next ones).



The CRTs are quite interesting to see. In particular the battle between RdP and CE. I am anxious to see how they will fare over race distance. I am impressed by Hernandez as well. And I wish that Ioda would have a better engine (and scrap the idea of 'tuning it themselves'), for their chassis and rider seem to be promising, as well as original.



And now let the race begin, dammit!

basspete said:

Sincerely hope Rossi gets it together, it's painful watching him like this.



Go Jorge! go Cal!

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Especially when the camera comes up on him in the pit and he does his signature "Hey Kiddies! Wow are we having fun? Smile" and then waves up close to the lens. You can smell the desperation.

michaelm said:

Intrinsic to the design? Related to the new tyre compound or change in the bike weight?

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Unless they were not telling the truth prior to the weight change regulation when they said

the bike was great - I'm guessing the extra pounds are the problem. Prior to that Pedrosa

seemed happy and quite competitive and now... not so much. How much do you want to

bet Stoner is again riding around the problem? The first couple rounds are going to be

tough for him and Dani.

Jumkie said:

Reading here and other particular comments across racing community, Stoner gets nipped for pole by another competent rider and suddenly Honda is ....?

Maybe Stoner's bike does ride itself. Ah, the irony.



If Stoner only comes 2nd tomorrow, some peeps are gonna be calling for an entire Honda redesign. Maybe he should go back to Ducati, u know, the fastest bike in GP.

Ah,



I fully expect that tire & weight conspiracy which had momentarily gone silent to rear it ugly baseless head. You know, that tire aimed at sabotaging Stoner to help Rossi. Its obviously working boys, cuz Rossi is a lock for the win in 12th. I guess they just wanted his win to be more dramatic.



Im still picking Stoner for the win. Perhaps some peeps forgot, that even on the 07 "rocket ship with remote control" that Rossi made it a last lap duel. Maybe some peeps actually think Stoner 'owns' Qatar (like some believed Rossi owned Mugello). Isnt thats why they all line up?

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He should have got a ride on a CRT. At least then he would have been showing up in Parc Ferme in the consolation slot for fastest CRT during qualification.

levigarrett said:

Again in English this time please...

I agree with you sentiments poor language and all. I think Rossi will finish in a reasonable position relative to his poor quali effort. I also think that Ducati will have a better machine over the course of this season than they had last.

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What? You don't speak Tequila?

Arrabbiata1 said:

Absolutely - and with Bradley already signed for next year he has to finish above Dovi plain and simple - no pressure then? I've been a great fan of Cal since he first emerged in the inaugural R6 cup as runner up to Tommy Hill in '03. Cal was weaned on production based machinery - this is still the unforgiving sport of Moto GP, but we predicted the move to a 1 litre class would better accommodate his style. He freely admits that he lacked the finesse essential to master the 800c bike and the uncanny levels of natural talent imbued in many of his counterparts through a lifetime on the dirt or prototype machinery. Perhaps if the raft of proposed changes currently being floated by Dorna are designed to swell the grid - they will achieve the same effect by not only reducing cost but by making the class more amenable to riders such as Cal. He's determined to prove his detractors wrong and has no intention of 'doing the walk of shame' back into the Superbike paddock just yet. That said, his first pre season, when he was drowning in a sea of set up, rock hard bridgestones plus an entirely new counter intuitive braking technique to learn, alongside the razor sharp precision of the 800cc machine together with the prospect of so many unfamiliar circuits he found the switch from a superbike so abasing that he felt like walking at that nightmare first test in Sepang...and that's not Cal's nature. He was very good around Qatar on a Superbike, so we'll see during the course of the year. Crutchlow has huge potential but I can't see him outperforming Dovi this year. I do however believe that he will be retained in the paddock and probably the class. He's popular, gritty, has oceans of new found self belief and confidence and is incredibly brave. I predict a relatively processional split field today - we'll see what pace Cal is capable of maintaining throughout the race.



Not meaning to state the obvious - but I really feel that the crucial deciding factor this year will be the riders ability to respond to fading tyres during the second half of the races. As Goatboy said earlier in this thread - many were quick to crucify Rossi on Friday but who's the past master when it comes to managing a worn tyre? I'm not expecting the second coming yet but the Boppers certainly need to keep the faith - which I think to be fair the true fans of Vale on here certainly have. My gripe was that 90% were bandwagon glory hunters and simply aren't interested when their team isn't winning. .... off and support Man Utd instead. I'm not expecting Valentino to be resurrected this Sunday but I do think a significant boulder has been rolled away. Unlike last season - things can only get exponentially better!!!

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Pie Man is not too shabby in that dept. In fact he's stated repeatedly that this is his favorite thing. (Cue Julie Andrews)

Keshav said:

Pot / Kettle

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Uh oh, Moaners boyfriend is on the case

Nino said:

Uh oh, Moaners boyfriend is on the case

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What do you think about ducati's straight line speed advantage this year?

We're waiting Nino

33 Coupe said:

We're waiting Nino

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Hello, who are you? Hope you haven't been waiting too long.



Ducati's straight line speed is interesting. It's not as big as it was in 2007. I guess what's really hurting them this year is that they now have two strong competitors rather than one, but the GP12 looks better than the GP 11.

povol said:

So, , your guessing and passing it on as fact ?

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Oh my Buddha! Not Lex speculating!!

truent said:

http://www.motogp.co...review+qatar+qp



Valentino Rossi:

"Yesterday was nothing fantastic but a lot better, especially with the used tyre, so my goal was to qualify on the second row. I’m very far from that target though, as the problems that we had before were worse. It’s very strange because we only made some small changes from yesterday, but the feeling was very different. After that we returned to yesterday’s setting and I went a little bit faster, but it wasn’t enough to significantly improve the result. I’m not sure what to expect for the race, but obviously, I hope to do better. Nicky made a different setup choice than ours and did a good session with both tyres, so now we’ll also look at his data and try to do better."



lol.. anyone read this?.. sorry.. but this is hilarious to me.. Lorenzo his teammate = wall. Nicky his teammate = gimme that.

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Yeah. There IS a difference between fighting for the Championship with yer team mate and battling over 6-10th with yer team mate...

Jumkie said:

Did u read what Stoner said after qual? He said he went the wrong direction in set up? Does that sound like a design problem?

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The "problem" has been there since test 1 according to Casey - chatter. If you listened to all of what Casey said after qually he directly said if it is not addressed he will NOT be able to compete at the level he is accustomed to. That sure sounds like a design problem. No one seems to be implying that Honda has Ducati's problems but the buzz indicates that the 1000lb. gorilla in the room is not altogether happy.