Estoril Predictions

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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Pinky @ Apr 11 2008, 10:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>westy pulls out a ripper of a lap.

shows true skills to ride in the wet

Or shows that hes an uncommited underperformer at the 16 (or so) dry races each season.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Apr 11 2008, 08:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Or shows that hes an uncommited underperformer at the 16 (or so) dry races each season.

Conversely ... JT ... first time MotoGP rider with two strong top 6 finishes in the first two races on a 2nd tier bike .. he gets a new pneumatic engine this weekend to get him to tier 1 and "give him compatability" ... and he is last ... why isn't he trying harder?!
 
Here is the result of the first practice sesion at Estoril. Damp conditions...

Pos. No. Rider Manufacturer Fast Lap Diff Diff Previous
1 1 Casey STONER DUCATI 1'47.900
2 46 Valentino ROSSI YAMAHA 1'48.599 0.699 0.699
3 56 Shinya NAKANO HONDA 1'48.754 0.854 0.155
4 13 Anthony WEST KAWASAKI 1'48.873 0.973 0.119
5 21 John HOPKINS KAWASAKI 1'49.530 1.630 0.657
6 69 Nicky HAYDEN HONDA 1'49.787 1.887 0.257
7 65 Loris CAPIROSSI SUZUKI 1'49.903 2.003 0.116
8 7 Chris VERMEULEN SUZUKI 1'50.123 2.223 0.220
9 50 Sylvain GUINTOLI DUCATI 1'50.278 2.378 0.155
10 14 Randy DE PUNIET HONDA 1'50.422 2.522 0.144
11 4 Andrea DOVIZIOSO HONDA 1'50.447 2.547 0.025
12 48 Jorge LORENZO YAMAHA 1'50.588 2.688 0.141
13 33 Marco MELANDRI DUCATI 1'50.761 2.861 0.173
14 15 Alex DE ANGELIS HONDA 1'51.195 3.295 0.434
15 24 Toni ELIAS DUCATI 1'51.392 3.492 0.197
16 2 Dani PEDROSA HONDA 1'52.045 4.145 0.653
17 5 Colin EDWARDS YAMAHA 1'53.196 5.296 1.151
18 52 James TOSELAND YAMAHA 1'53.907 6.007 0.711


Circuit Records:
Fastest Lap: Lap 12 Casey STONER 1'47.900 139.529 Km/h
Circuit Record Lap: 2007 Nicky HAYDEN 1'37.493 154.423 Km/h
Circuit Best Lap: 2006 Valentino ROSSI 1'36.200 156.498 Km/h
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (krusty @ Apr 11 2008, 12:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Conversely ... JT ... first time MotoGP rider with two strong top 6 finishes in the first two races on a 2nd tier bike .. he gets a new pneumatic engine this weekend to get him to tier 1 and "give him compatability" ... and he is last ... why isn't he trying harder?!

Like i said before, its is FP1 in obscure conditions and is not a reliable form guide.

You believe that "true skills" show in the wet, but what is it about rain riding skills that are more "true" other than the fact that they are roughly one eighth as useful as dry riding skills.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Apr 11 2008, 09:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Like i said before, its is FP1 in obscure conditions and is not a reliable form guide.

You believe that "true skills" show in the wet, but what is it about rain riding skills that are more "true" other than the fact that they are roughly one eighth as useful as dry riding skills.
There will always be more dry races (it's the weather) ... If someone is good in the dry they will more than likely score a lot more points than someone that is good in the wet. However, this session just proves that there are two riders who are better than the rest of the field in any conditions ... that was my point! If you are .... in the wet or dry, should never be heralded as the best rider ... because you are not!
 
is it just me or are all the rookis who have never ridden an 800 around estoril struggling a bit with the track and conditions?

JTs hints at a podium may be a little bit wishful this weekend IMO
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (krusty @ Apr 11 2008, 01:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>There will always be more dry races (it's the weather) ... If someone is good in the dry they will more than likely score a lot more points than someone that is good in the wet. However, this session just proves that there are two riders who are better than the rest of the field in any conditions ... that was my point! If you are .... in the wet or dry, should never be heralded as the best rider ... because you are not!

Well there are no points for practice, so who really stands out is something to discuss on sunday after the race (if it is wet). But you don't have to be good in the wet to win the world title, if you can make up for it in other areas. The idea of being the best overall is that you don't have to win every race and be the best everywhere.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Apr 11 2008, 10:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>But you don't have to be good in the wet to win the world title, if you can make up for it in other areas.

... what, being good in the dry?!

That just says there are more dry races so if you are better at dry races than you are the best ... I don't think so ... the best rider is the one that can adapt to any conditions! Like I said, the cream rises to the top!
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (krusty @ Apr 11 2008, 01:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>... what, being good in the dry?!

That just says there are more dry races so if you are better at dry races than you are the best ...

Well yea thats exactly it. It is important to develop skills which will most improve a riders results, and thats dry riding over wet by far.
 
Pedrosa, Stoner, Hayden... early prediction but its my gut feeling.. I'm sure I'm wrong, its a great season to watch the races, who knows what on earth will happen!
 
wow stoners TC looks like its on the blink from the rear shot looked like it was pulsating

now stoner turning up the heat.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Apr 11 2008, 11:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Well yea thats exactly it. It is important to develop skills which will most improve a riders results, and thats dry riding over wet by far.

and the winner of the 2008 MotoGP championship "I'm really good in the dry but not so good in the wet, but hey who cares because there are a shitload more races in the dry and thus I can be a really bad rider in the wet" is .....

Thank .... the best riders in 2008 don't aspire to your theory!
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (krusty @ Apr 11 2008, 02:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>and the winner of the 2008 MotoGP championship "I'm really good in the dry but not so good in the wet, but hey who cares because there are a shitload more races in the dry and thus I can be a really bad rider in the wet" is .....

Thank .... the best riders in 2008 don't aspire to your theory!

I'm not suggesting that the riders are not concerened with their performance when it rains because they have to be, just that being good in the rain does not represent "true skill" as much as it does a different skill. None of the riders aspire to have weaknesses
<
But if you asked someone if they'd rather be a wet specialist or a dry specialist none of them would say wet because it is a less useful area to have an advantage. Ideally of course a rider will be good everywhere, but not many of them can achieve this.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (projekZERO @ Apr 10 2008, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>They must have a different weather.com in Texas
<
. Here in california it says the rain stops at 4am on Fri and clear but windy all day.

The rain doesnt start up again untill 11am on Sat through qualifying. But even then is just scattered showers.

Bow down subject.
<
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Apr 11 2008, 01:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Like i said before, its is FP1 in obscure conditions and is not a reliable form guide.

You believe that "true skills" show in the wet, but what is it about rain riding skills that are more "true" other than the fact that they are roughly one eighth as useful as dry riding skills.

It's quite common among racers to asume that wet wether racing are more difficult. The edge is sharper and the riders with a refined technique are shining both due to their superior tehchnique and because power doesn't matter as much, but all the more about getting the power down.
I also think that a fast rain rider have a better potential than others in dry. How far they take it is a different matter. A fast rider i know once explained fast wet riding as being on lap record pace on evey lap an on evey inch of the lap. Small slides everywhere and being right there on the edge. Soft and fast in every control and movement are key abilities.

I find this to be true (I reallt stunk in rain myself) but there are other factors as well. As the bikes have become easier to ride there are those with less skill but more need for a spot in the lime light that are willing to take a 1/10 bet that they make it to the finish and race accordingly. Far behind in the championship they have little to loose and a lot to gain, but usually they bin it, we just have to pray they don't take to many with them.
 

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