I still think it will be between Pedrosa & Lorenzo.
They seem to have a significant advantage in the last half of the circuit over everybody else.
Lorenzo still has warm up to optimize his setup & he is normally very quick here.
Watching qualifying Stoner & Cal were losing near half a second in the last 2 sectors.
If anyone has a 'significant' advantage, it is Crutchlow. He was .603 to Lorenzo's .619, Pedrosa's .641, Stoner's .730 - but in reality during the race, this is no real advantage... a tenth between first and fourth fastest.
The surface at the Parabolica seems to have come under quite a bit of criticism for its ability to retain water.
I have just spreadsheeted the QP laps for the top 4 and can't see the truth in your 'losing nearly half a second'... not in the faster laps. Of course, when Stoner had a slow lap, he was, but you could say the same about any of the top 4.
There were only two laps where Stoner was .5 a second behind Lorenzo and Pedrosa for T3+T4. Mostly he ranged between .149-.289 with two between .289 and .41. And he more than made up for that with his combined T1+T2 times, where he is faster for eight laps before either Pedrosa, Crutchlow or Lorenzo's figures even show up.
The one with the 'ideal lap time (where the best segments are added together to make a lap) is Pedrosa, followed by Stoner, Crutchlow, Lorenzo - nearly quarter of a second behind Pedrosa.
I don't think there's anything in it, sector-wise - it will be all about tyres - who still has some after lap 15. If Lorenzo can preserve his, he's in with a chance, if he burns them up keeping Stoner in check, Pedrosa is in with a real chance.
Stoner, as always, will do something spectacular... whether that is to piss off into the distance or to drop off with burned-out tyres, arm-pump or to lose it on the dodgy Parabolica surface - who knows?
I think the only sure thing is that Crutchlow is going to have to have luck and determination to make the podium - for the other three, it's hard seeing them off it, in what combination, meh!