Destructive Power of the Media- the end of reason.

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From Malthus trough to evolutionary game theory or the epidemiological cycle, population dynamics is a fascinating albeit extraordinarily complex subject.



Can I recommend 'Population Geography' by Huw Jones in particular - must be on about the tenth edition by now. It will answer many of your questions, but it is unable to account for why so many males in Tennessee are firing blanks.

Not sure about my fellow Tennesseans, but i did my part. Ive got at least 4..
 
Abducted children you have in the basement don't count.
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From Malthus trough to evolutionary game theory or the epidemiological cycle, population dynamics is a fascinating albeit extraordinarily complex subject.



Can I recommend 'Population Geography' by Huw Jones in particular - must be on about the tenth edition by now. It will answer many of your questions, but it is unable to account for why so many males in Tennessee are firing blanks.

Well dammit, I did my best to shift the focus of the discussion to choking the chicken, and than you throw in evolutionary game theory.



Ah well, since we're here anyway, Pov, you may also want check out 'Guns, Germs, and Steel' by Jared Diamond, not specifically about demography but about the history human development. Given your interest, I think you might find it a good read.
 
If you really wonder, there is quite a bit of good, scientific literature about it that I'd be happy to look up for you if I have a little time for it. I suspect you'll find that the main causes for decreased birthrates are a combination of secularization, female labour market participation, more options for birthcontrol, the rise of the welfare state replacing the need for large numbers off offspring to ensure subsistence in old age, decreasing infant mortality.

I think these are the main reasons for the declining birth rates in western society, rather than the biological things, given that various cultural sub groups in western countries manage to be very fertile.



I don't dismiss some of the biological things povol mentions, though, either but still the most important biological issue is how young you start trying to have children. I can also see a philosophical argument that having less or no children says something about hope for the future as well, not that being hopeful for the future means the planet can sustain limitless human population though.
 
The BBC you say!! by golly.



but as it says here:

http://australia.gov...y/austn-islands



"The continent of Australia is referred to as an island because it is surrounded by ocean"



"As an island, Australia is a natural quarantine zone."



The BBC you say!! by golly thats gotta be right then !! .............. is Top Gear on the BBC?
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I think I'll just stick to what we declare ourselves thanks
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Technicality but the continent of Australia is made up of a number of Islands, the largest and most well known being Tasmania - unless of course you are disowning our hairy palmed friends. The Australian mainland is an island but Australia itself isn't.
 
I think these are the main reasons for the declining birth rates in western society, rather than the biological things, given that various cultural sub groups in western countries manage to be very fertile.



I don't dismiss some of the biological things povol mentions, though, either but still the most important biological issue is how young you start trying to have children. I can also see a philosophical argument that having less or no children says something about hope for the future as well, not that being hopeful for the future means the planet can sustain limitless human population though.



That's an assumption. I might be just as true that the preference are shifting towards less children, or even none at all, regardless of expectations for the future or even in light of positive expectations for the future.



Personally, I don't have kids and don't want to have kids ever. There's a lot of young people like me and I think their number is increasing. I don't know the extent to which my personal considerations are generalizable to a wider population, but I have simply have no incentives to procreate, no ideology or tradition to shift my preferences, no dominating biological need. Mind you, I am a product of a reasonably modern, secular, densly populated nation with a comparitively comprehensive welfare state.
 
That's an assumption. I might be just as true that the preference are shifting towards less children, or even none at all, regardless of expectations for the future or even in light of positive expectations for the future.



Personally, I don't have kids and don't want to have kids ever. There's a lot of young people like me and I think their number is increasing. I don't know the extent to which my personal considerations are generalizable to a wider population, but I have simply have no incentives to procreate, no ideology or tradition to shift my preferences, no dominating biological need. Mind you, I am a product of a reasonably modern, secular, densly populated nation with a comparitively comprehensive welfare state.

I was not saying it was my philosophical argument , just one that I don't dismiss when it is advanced by others.
 
If you really wonder, there is quite a bit of good, scientific literature about it that I'd be happy to look up for you if I have a little time for it. I suspect you'll find that the main causes for decreased birthrates are a combination of secularization, female labour market participation, more options for birthcontrol, the rise of the welfare state replacing the need for large numbers off offspring to ensure subsistence in old age, decreasing infant mortality.



The picture you paint of extinction due to lagging birthrates is a falsehood given current knowledge. However, I'm happy you brought it up, as I was previously unaware of the way this issue has been cooked up by fundamentalists.



Try googling "falling birth rates in Africa". Very revealing. Basically, what happens when women receive education is that birth rates plummet. Who the .... wants to have 20 children anyway? Birth rates are falling in Subsaharan Africa, in the Middle East, in Asia. It's not just in the West.



Oh, and along with Guns, Germs and Steel I can heartily recommend Collapse by Jared Diamond.
 
Try googling "falling birth rates in Africa". Very revealing. Basically, what happens when women receive education is that birth rates plummet. Who the .... wants to have 20 children anyway? Birth rates are falling in Subsaharan Africa, in the Middle East, in Asia. It's not just in the West.



Oh, and along with Guns, Germs and Steel I can heartily recommend Collapse by Jared Diamond.

Familiar with Gerhard Lenski's work?
 
I am not. I shall take a look.

'Human Societies' (with Nolan, in its tenth edition now I believe) is a great read. 'Ecological-Evolutionary Theory' is great too, but I think it might be harder to appreciate if you're not into the social sciences.
 
Modern man shooting blanks could be down the female contraception. The amount of women on the pill all pissing Estrogens into the water supply turning males more effeminate in general.
 
Modern man shooting blanks could be down the female contraception. The amount of women on the pill all pissing Estrogens into the water supply turning males more effeminate in general.



This is a very real possibility. There also many other oestrogen mimicking pollutants in our modern society. Plastics being one of them. I forget the exact week in pregnancy, I think it is the 8th or so, but a males reproductive capability is determined in the womb. If there is an excess of natural/un-natural oestrogen's present at that time the males sperm count/mobility will be reduced for life.



This is a very good presentation covering what Krop has said a few posts back about education leading to decreasing birth rates. The very last part of the presentation also gives a very good explanation of why 10billion is inevitable.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78



If you like this you should check out www.ted.com as there are many many excellent presentations on many many topics by experts. All are less than 20min presentations. I watch 2-3 per week.
 
Take into account that even if spermcount was generally declining it would not automatically lead to decreasing birth rates.
 
Modern man shooting blanks could be down the female contraception. The amount of women on the pill all pissing Estrogens into the water supply turning males more effeminate in general.



Don't drink from the toilet any more you wacker!!
 
We all drink from the toilet in one way or another. What do you think water treatment plants are for?



Then that does explain why you brits/scots are constantly bitching/whinging/moaning/sooking!!
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I was rubbing your nose in another good thing about Australia Reg. ............ guess where we get our water from
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That should be worth another 6 months of Oestrogen fueled ranting from you!!
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