Predictions:
1. Ezpeleta will get the control ECU. He holds all the cards, and he wants it. He has gone too far and can't back out without being seen to be weak.
2. Honda will pull out. Nakamoto has gone too far and can't back out without being seen to be weak. Moto2 will still be CBR600 engines, Honda will continue to compete in Moto3. This withdrawal will be for the 2014 season.
3. Honda will hold Pedrosa and Marquez to their contracts. That means they will have to pay them a lot of money not to ride, as factories have done in the past. Pedrosa will take the money and retire, Marquez will buy his way out of his contract, with money from Dorna.
4. Yamaha and Ducati will stay, Suzuki will join MotoGP in 2014. Marquez will race a Yamaha of some sort, a full factory bike with full factory backing. There is a very good chance that Dorna will drop the four-bikes-per-factory rule to make this happen, unsurprisingly.
5. In WSBK, Ezpeleta will introduce an engine allocation and a spec ECU, and a few more tweaks to the technical rules. Pirelli will be dumped (they have apparently already decided to pull out) and Michelin will take their place.
6. The world of motorcycle racing will look surprisingly similar. The fans complaining that MotoGP is going to the dogs will continue to do so, and will continue to threaten to stop watching the series. WSBK will continue to have more factory involvement than MotoGP, and might even get better online viewing options. Sponsors, riders and teams will move more freely between the two championships. But Ezpeleta will ensure that MotoGP gets top billing in everything and remains the premier series. WSBK will remain the series of choice for the hardcore racing fanatic.
7. What will change is that rider salaries will be slashed in MotoGP, especially for the top riders. Without Honda, top riders will go from earning 8 figure sums to 7 figure sums. Satellite riders' salaries will return to a couple of hundred thousand a year instead of nearly a million. Jorge Lorenzo will still be able to afford his apartment in Barcelona.
One of several things I like about you Kropo, is you have the balls to put your opinions out there and on the line. Nonetheless, based on some of your previous predictions, I’ll take these above in their proper perspective.
A few things, Honda pulling out is one thing, hard enough to believe maybe, but hey, they did it here in the AMA, so I'll go for that one and actually welcome it. But keeping their riders from riding, uhm, not going to happen buddy. The public outrage of not allowing some of the best riders to ride would be too much.
Also, don't confuse those that supposedly "boycott" the series, with those who, with good reason, criticize the series and its blatant corruption and favoritism. The criticism for those few running the sport who continue to further contrive and diminish the series, draining it of all what should be an authentic competition, is well placed. With all do respect, you seem to take the criticism on the sport a bit personal it seems, as this is a recurring theme I’ve seen you mention a few times. I also love the sport buddy. The bitching and complaining isn't without merit. Also keep in mind, it is of little to no consequence, as those of us who do ..... and complain about the series are a few hardcore fans. For the mass majority of the public, they don't give a .... and are for the most part unaware of the machinate. Hell, even the media burry their heads in the sand for much of it and don't call out the contrived nature of the goings on; its not like we expect the media to do so, right? (sarcasm for affect) We have little to no real investigative reporting in the regular world, much less in a niche sport. I have yet to read a piece calling out the shenanigans that landed VR back onto a factory Yamaha or the sudden elimination of the rookie rule all of which quite obviously accomplished by the league (which is suppose to be impartial) for the darlings of the sport, which in affect means the rest of the field are unfairly represented. I guess the media are also waiting for the official press release from Carmelo's office that admits backroom deals and horse-trading; I mean really, the media have never speculated, right? (sarcasm) So buddy, our complaining may amount to just a pet peeve for you; but nothing more actually. Maybe we should just shut up and let Carmelo continue to prop up his favorite sons, eh? Hahaha. I for one am well aware I’m watching a ........ competition, but I tune for several reasons despite this reality. All you need to know about results and the idea of “aliens” is the results that VR is bound to get next year.
Regarding the prediction that Ducati will stay, of course Ducati will stay, they need to redeem some of the damage done by the sport’s beloved son to their brand. They are to blame though, as they also drank the kool-aid that VR/JB were an “alien” combination. Which BTW, his name was absent from your predictions. I predict the series will continue to revolve around VRs name. Ducati seem not to realize that the rules have gone for the most part against them. From the short lived proposed rev limit back in 2007ish, to the loss of working exclusively with Bridgestone, to the tire development going decidedly away from their particular machine, to the engine rule given their chassis design, etc. etc. they seem not to make the connection that they were not going to be competing in a series that at very least leveled the field. They stayed anyway. I would say that if they lose their main sponsor, then may it would spell doom for their participation in the series. That, or maybe somebody has finally got smart and thought out on possible consequence if HRC does leave, then they might get some relief in terms of rules and results to follow. But lets be honest, as long as VR is on a Japanese bike the Italian manufacture, absent one CS, will never see another title.
