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Assen GP 2012: Predictions, Practice, Qual

Sweet Zombie Jesus...... please help Bens Pies.



He "has" to do well in the race tomorrow or I think the cards will be stacked against him. Here's hoping
<
 
Motivated on a fast lap does a races focus in terms of championship NOT make. If you think contemplating retirement has not affected him mentally, then you are in denial, the man is human. The lap was amazing. Gives me a smile to see such a fantastic talent on a lap like that when he estimated he only had one brief opportunity to make a 9th position into a pole. He timed it to perfection. Again, not the same over a race distance when other thoughts can contaminate his confidence and desire.



OK then. If he hasn't got the focus or motivation in races, why the hell would you risk a neck snapping highside in quali to get pole? What was his motivation to get pole, if it wasn't to get the best result he could in the race? His lap didn't look like someone who had retirement on his mind more than the championship from where I was sitting.
 
OK then. If he hasn't got the focus or motivation in races, why the hell would you risk a neck snapping highside in quali to get pole? What was his motivation to get pole, if it wasn't to get the best result he could in the race? His lap didn't look like someone who had retirement on his mind more than the championship from where I was sitting.



All of them risk this in mixed condition. Why do boxers get up after they've been knocked out? Its many things, reaction, guts, reflex, training, etc. Except Stoner has decided to retire thrown in the towel on continuing his career. Thats a big deal not to be glossed over. U can argue it hasnt affected him, but the very act of quitting/retiring is proof positive it has. Hes not retiring because of some physical problem, right? So the reason is abstract, and where do abstract things reside? Its not a dig at Stoner, though im sure u read it that way. I know u and many cant accept this simple truth, but the man has been affected mentally, and i contend it has distracted his focus.



Often times riders have said that distraction can screw up their focus. That is way many try to avoid for example contract disputes in the middle of a title run. They often say they are not trying to think of those things and focus solely on the the job. However perhaps u didnt hear Stoners retirement announcement, but he mention several aspects of GP that bother him. Have all those things been solved by his decision to retire? Just yesterday he made a point of accusing the powers that be that every move Bridgestone has done has been detrimental to him. Interesting, maybe u interpret that as it not bothering him? You know what stuff like that does to a person's focus?



EDITed, for the benefit of Kesh and anybody else who may miss the point of this post while getting stuck on my description of Stoner's decision to ____insert your word here_____ the sport. (words you may choose from: retire, quit, throw in the towel, move on, go away, stop competing, etc).
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Stoners focus has always been riding & getting the best of any bike he thorws his leg over. All the other media & sponsor fluffing stuff is the distraction & the reason he is leaving. Last night showed us that when it is him & the bike with no distraction, his focus is second to none. If GP was more about racing & less about pandering to every hanger on, I guarantee that he would be staying.



I don't disagree that he behaves like a petulant child some times. I think thats what focuses him. Me against the world. He isn't the first & won't be the last to use this theory for motivation.
 
All of them risk this in mixed condition. Why do boxers get up after they've been knocked out? Its many things, reaction, guts, reflex, training, etc. Except Stoner has thrown in the towel on continuing his career. Thats a big deal not to be glossed over. U can argue it hasnt affected him, but the very act of quitting/retiring is proof positive it has. Hes not retiring because of some physical problem, right? So the reason is abstract, and where do abstract things reside? Its not a dig at Stoner, though im sure u read it that way. I know u and many cant accept this simple truth, but the man has been affected mentally, and i contend it has distracted his focus.



Often times riders have said that distraction can screw up their focus. That is way many try to avoid for example contract disputes in the middle of a title run. They often say they are not trying to think of those things and focus solely on the the job. However perhaps u didnt hear Stoners retirement announcement, but he mention several aspects of GP that bother him. Have all those things been solved by his decision to retire? Just yesterday he made a point of accusing the powers that be that every move Bridgestone has done has been detrimental to him. Interesting, maybe u interpret that as it not bothering him? You know what stuff like that does to a person's focus?

He has said that the changes to the weight of the bike and the tyres have been detrimental to him. He didn't say that the powers that be were plotting against him, although I would agree it is not too wild a surmise that he may think this. I have only seen his answers, not the questions posed, so he may have been asked whether the tyre changes and the weight change were detrimental, and if so his answers could perhaps be considered to be from a perspective more informed than most.



Why is it a simple truth that he has been mentally affected, but an obviously incorrect opinion that he can't make the current tyre last race distance, and why is holding the second opinion excuse making when the lack of tyre durability is attributed to inferior riding skills in comparison to jorge, and some stoner partisans are arguing that jorge just may be better overall rather than invoking nebulous concepts like loss of focus etc as reasons for jorge beating him?



Anyway, if you can argue for 5 years (possibly not incorrectly in my view) that the 800 formula was a plot in favour of spanish midgets and against real riders/men (that honda was the same size for both of them
<
), I don't see why I can't argue that the current tyre favours riders with a millimetrically precise 250 cornerspeed riding style, and I don't see how my opinion is negated by a bunch of similar such riders voting for the tyre in concert with the really excellent rider who is beating the rider I primarily support.
 
He has said that the changes to the weight of the bike and the tyres have been detrimental to him. He didn't say that the powers that be were plotting against him, although I would agree it is not too wild a surmise that he may think this. I have only seen his answers, not the questions posed, so he may have been asked whether the tyre change and the weight change were detrimental, and if so his answers could perhaps be considered to be from an informed perspective.



Anyway, if you can argue for 5 years (possibly not incorrectly in my view) that the 800 formula was a plot in favour of spanish midgets and against real men/riders (that honda was the same size for both of them
<
), I don't see why I can't argue that the current tyre favours riders with a millimetrically precise 250 cornerspeed riding style, even if a bunch of similar such riders voted in concert with the really excellent rider who is beating the rider I primarily support.

They may have inadvertently found something today as he was oddly enough able to get the soft tire to work but not the hard tire.
 
Why is it a simple truth that he has been mentally affected, but an obviously incorrect opinion that he can't make the current tyre last race distance, and why is holding the second opinion excuse making when the lack of tyre durability is attributed to inferior riding skills in comparison to jorge, and some stoner partisans are arguing that jorge just may be better overall rather than invoking nebulous concepts like loss of focus etc as reasons for jorge beating him?

I do entertain the thought that maybe Stoner is not quite at 100%. I think he rides at 100% at all times, but I wonder if he can be 100% committed to a sport he doesnt love. Perhaps he has been affected just enough to be at 99% of maximum, which might affect his committment to making the new tire work. And if you think about it, how far off 100% committment can a rider be and still win the championship?



Then again as I thought previously its statistically unlikely any rider, even Stoner would be able to dominate every year if there happens to be an opponent his equal on the grid. The law of probabilty predicts equals will share championships from year to year as much due to random luck as anything else. But unlike others I dont think a spec tire change mid season is random luck. I do think if they had of just kept the original 2012 tire they would not only have done the right thing by the championship, but also they would have done Lorenzo a big favour in that there would be no debating this issue, and we would be more concentrated on just how well he is riding to beat Stoner.
 
I do entertain the thought that maybe Stoner is not quite at 100%. I think he rides at 100% at all times, but I wonder if he can be 100% committed to a sport he doesnt love. Perhaps he has been affected just enough to be at 99% of maximum, which might affect his committment to making the new tire work. And if you think about it, how far off 100% committment can a rider be and still win the championship?



Agree



Then again as I thought previously its statistically unlikely any rider, even Stoner would be able to dominate every year if there happens to be an opponent his equal on the grid. The law of probabilty predicts equals will share championships from year to year as much due to random luck as anything else. But unlike others I dont think a spec tire change mid season is random luck. I do think if they had of just kept the original 2012 tire they would not only have done the right thing by the championship, but also they would have done Lorenzo a big favour in that there would be no debating this issue, and we would be more concentrated on just how well he is riding to beat Stoner.



There is no debate, as long as the same options are available to Lorenzo as they are to Stoner. The debate is only in the minds of some Stoner fans that think this is a conspiracy against him (not limited perhaps to Stoner himself).
 
He has said that the changes to the weight of the bike and the tyres have been detrimental to him. He didn't say that the powers that be were plotting against him, although I would agree it is not too wild a surmise that he may think this. I have only seen his answers, not the questions posed, so he may have been asked whether the tyre changes and the weight change were detrimental, and if so his answers could perhaps be considered to be from a perspective more informed than most.



Why is it a simple truth that he has been mentally affected, but an obviously incorrect opinion that he can't make the current tyre last race distance, and why is holding the second opinion excuse making when the lack of tyre durability is attributed to inferior riding skills in comparison to jorge, and some stoner partisans are arguing that jorge just may be better overall rather than invoking nebulous concepts like loss of focus etc as reasons for jorge beating him?



Anyway, if you can argue for 5 years (possibly not incorrectly in my view) that the 800 formula was a plot in favour of spanish midgets and against real riders/men (that honda was the same size for both of them
<
), I don't see why I can't argue that the current tyre favours riders with a millimetrically precise 250 cornerspeed riding style, and I don't see how my opinion is negated by a bunch of similar such riders voting for the tyre in concert with the really excellent rider who is beating the rider I primarily support.



We've already debated this to death. In a sport where every champion has said its mostly mental, deciding to retire during a championship run is going to produce some loss of focus in my honest/bias opinion. On top of that, add his cynical implication about the politics of the sport, its my opinion its got to affect the psyche of a rider who entertains those thoughts, again, enough to retire (rightly or wrongly). You disagree. I think we will have to agree to disagree.



Regarding tires, unless they all don't have the identical options, unless you can come up with a reasonable theory to propose they were designed for Lorenzo decidedly against Stoner (which would have been a neat trick by Bstone) with everybody else's blessing in form of a vote, coupled with HRC's inability to cope and adjust in terms of development resources to said tire (while magically not screwing up the M1's platform as you say it was introduced mid season), then again, we will have to agree to disagree that the tire situation is not an insurmountable obstacle.
 
We've already debated this to death. In a sport where every champion has said its mostly mental, deciding to retire during a championship run is going to produce some loss of focus in my honest/bias opinion. On top of that, add his cynical implication about the politics of the sport, its my opinion its got to affect the psyche of a rider who entertains those thoughts, again, enough to retire (rightly or wrongly). You disagree. I think we will have to agree to disagree.



Regarding tires, unless they all don't have the identical options, unless you can come up with a reasonable theory to propose they were designed for Lorenzo decidedly against Stoner (which would have been a neat trick by Bstone) with everybody else's blessing in form of a vote, coupled with HRC's inability to cope and adjust in terms of development resources to said tire (while magically not screwing up the M1's platform as you say it was introduced mid season), then again, we will have to agree to disagree that the tire situation is not an insurmountable obstacle.

We have scarcely debated this at all. You have given your view/opinion which I don't accept, and I have given mine which you don't accept. From my point of view you are now going "straw man".



My view again, is that whether a control tyre is "fair " in general or whether this particular control tyre is "fair" (and accepting your point that it is fairly difficult prima facie for a control tyre to be "unfair") are different issues than whether the tyre suits stoner and whether he is wearing it out in races, and whether his late race fading is due to mental weakness, as you posit, or an inability to make the tyre last as well as jorge does, as I posit. In either case jorge is deservedly winning anyway.



I would agree that stoner is well situated as a honda factory rider in terms of having the resources to address any problems the bike may have, as have been the winners of all but 3 of the last 29 championships (soon to be 3 of 30 unless something remarkable occurs), who were also on factory hondas or yamahas, and I agree that if jorge can adjust his riding better or in concert with yamaha has developed a more flexible bike than stoner/honda have managed, then further points to him. Perhaps you can even blame stoner more than would normally be the case with a honda factory bike, and the bike has ill-advisedly been developed too much in his direction as some (with whom I have previously disagreed
<
) have argued in the past about previous bikes.



What I don't see is why your opinion (to which you are entitled) regarding stoner's psychological situation merits the status of proven fact, whereas mine that he is wearing out his tyres based on my own observations and those of others including mick doohan who perhaps could be considered likely to have similar biases to me, and kevin schwantz who perhaps could not, can be summarily dismissed.



(EDIT I am happy to agree to disagree. I know you at least attempt to be fair, as I do, probably not always successfully in my case).
 
WUP Is on now

BBC All 3 Races moto 2-3 motogp are live but on the red button ONLY sky / freesat / freeview ch301 too i think Motogp race Repeats Sunday BBC2/HD



Brit Eurosport have all 3 races live think the beeb have done a deal with them because there coverage is red button only (Tennis fooking things up)



Will Duc take there Option on Hayden up by today ?

Being a hard working test rider gets you no where only to the back of the grid see Colin should have gone Bsbk BSB
 
wup



ped 1'34.636

Lorenzo 1'34.668

sto

dov

cru

spi

brd

bar

bau

hay

ros not far in front of the crap CRT
 
We have scarcely debated this at all. You have given your view/opinion which I don't accept, and I have given mine which you don't accept. From my point of view you are now going "straw man".



My view again, is that whether a control tyre is "fair " in general or whether this particular control tyre is "fair" (and accepting your point that it is fairly difficult prima facie for a control tyre to be "unfair") are different issues than whether the tyre suits stoner and whether he is wearing it out in races, and whether his late race fading is due to mental weakness, as you posit, or an inability to make the tyre last as well as jorge does, as I posit. In either case jorge is deservedly winning anyway.



I would agree that stoner is well situated as a honda factory rider in terms of having the resources to address any problems the bike may have, as have been the winners of all but 3 of the last 29 championships (soon to be 3 of 30 unless something remarkable occurs), who were also on factory hondas or yamahas, and I agree that if jorge can adjust his riding better or in concert with yamaha has developed a more flexible bike than stoner/honda have managed, then further points to him. Perhaps you can even blame stoner more than would normally be the case with a honda factory bike, and the bike has ill-advisedly been developed too much in his direction as some (with whom I have previously disagreed
<
) have argued in the past about previous bikes.



What I don't see is why your opinion (to which you are entitled) regarding stoner's psychological situation merits the status of proven fact, whereas mine that he is wearing out his tyres based on my own observations and those of others including mick doohan who perhaps could be considered likely to have similar biases to me, and kevin schwantz who perhaps could not, can be summarily dismissed.



(EDIT I am happy to agree to disagree. I know you at least attempt to be fair, as I do, probably not always successfully in my case).

Perplexingly, during the course of the race as the rear tyre begins to wear on the factory Honda's, the chatter increases which is inversely proportionally to grip levels. As grip is compromised and the tyre degrades a design effect of new softer carcass (in contrast to last year) the chatter should be eradicated - completely the reverse is happening. Unable to establish why, Honda are demanding answers from Bridgestone while as Jumkie correctly states the other manufacturers have all had to adapt to the introduction of the tyre mid season. The effects are less pronounced the softer the compound opted for - which Casey and Dani are happier with but this assumes that they can go the race distance.



Dani is as smooth as Lorenzo and wants to employ a similar riding style. The shapes that his Honda was making yesterday between Ramshoek and through the Geert Timmer chicane in comparison to Jorge on the M1 were so pronounced and so utterly un-pedrosa you can sense his frustration. This is not how he wants to be riding nor does it reflect his previously observed modus operandi - so what does one attribute this to if not differences in the characteristics of the machinery?



Personally I think mentally Casey is in a much better place recently. Of course he is focussed on winning the title as his swan song but if anything the sense of liberation and release that he must be experiencing right now must be uplifting - Perhaps that in itself is a distraction but I doubt it. Before the yellow fraternity chime in that as a privileged Works Honda rider he should be grateful for his lot occupying a seat that most erstwhile aspiring young racers would trade their left testicle for - you'd do well remember Valentino's ball and chain/rock breaking jibe at HRC (my favourite Vale post race celebration bar the speeding ticket at Mugello.)



You could honestly question whether he is ever truly happy either in himself and the circumstances around him. Perhaps he is only happy when he has something to complain about - and right now his only frustration seems to be - justifiably I think - vented upon the behaviour of the Honda in conjunction with the new Bridgestone. Only Casey himself and his close friends and family can answer that. Maybe acute cabin fever in retirement will eventually prompt him to take up some form of racing again in the future.



Right now, like I say, Stoner is de-mob happy, which could compromise his focus - but I think overall he's as happy as he's been in a long while in the knowledge that the onerous P/R and paddock politics will soon be a distant memory believing he has nothing more to prove to plaudits pundits and peers alike.
 
BBC All 3 Races moto 2-3 motogp are live but on the red button ONLY sky / freesat / freeview ch301 too i think Motogp race Repeats Sunday BBC2/HD

Can I press you for a comment again Goatboy?



Once more - complete abuse of and indifference to, a live rights package.



Thank ....... .... for that. I can watch the race live on British Eurosport instead of waiting a ninety minutes for those fuckwits Cox and Parish to wrap up their abortion of a 'commentary'.
 
Perplexingly, during the course of the race as the rear tyre begins to wear on the factory Honda's, the chatter increases which is inversely proportionally to grip levels. As grip is compromised and the tyre degrades a design effect of new softer carcass (in contrast to last year) the chatter should be eradicated - completely the reverse is happening. Unable to establish why, Honda are demanding answers from Bridgestone while as Jumkie correctly states the other manufacturers have all had to adapt to the introduction of the tyre mid season. The effects are less pronounced the softer the compound opted for - which Casey and Dani are happier with but this assumes that they can go the race distance. I think the expectation was that they would come to Assen and encountering cool track temperatures again would have to use a similar compound to Silverstone. Dani is as smooth as Lorenzo and wants to employ a similar riding style. The shapes that his Honda was making yesterday between Ramshoek and through the Geert Timmer chicane in comparison to Jorge on the M1 were so pronounced and so utterly un-pedrosa you can sense his frustration. This is not how he wants to be riding nor does it reflect his previously observed modus operandi - so what does one attribute this to if not differences in the characteristics of the machinery?



Personally I think mentally Casey is in a much better place recently. Of course he is focussed on winning the title as his swan song but if anything the sense of liberation and release that he must be experiencing right now must be uplifting - Perhaps that in itself is a distraction but I doubt it. Before the yellow fraternity chime in that as a privileged Works Honda rider he should be grateful for his lot occupying a seat that most erstwhile aspiring young racers would trade their left testicle for - you'd do well remember Valentino's ball and chain/rock breaking jibe at HRC (my favourite Vale post race celebration bar the speeding ticket at Mugello.)



You could honestly question whether he is ever truly happy either in himself and the circumstances around him. Perhaps he is only happy when he has something to complain about - and right now his only frustration seems to be - justifiably I think - vented upon the behaviour of the Honda in conjunction with the new Bridgestone. Only Casey himself and his close friends and family can answer that. Maybe acute cabin fever in retirement will eventually prompt him to take up some form of racing again in the future.



Right now, like I say, Stoner is de-mob happy, which could compromise his focus - but I think overall he's as happy as he's been in a long while in the knowledge that the onerous P/R and paddock politics will soon be a distant memory believing he has nothing more to prove to plaudits pundits and peers alike.

To be fair, mick doohan in today's sydney paper mainly talked about the chatter being the problem and the honda factory riders not being able to put down the bike's obviously still very competitive power as they would like. I have conflated the tyre and the chatter into the same problem, since one does seem to be related to the other, certainly according to stoner at least.



I would expect a tyre which suits jorge to suit pedrosa as well, as I more or less implied; honda may well be stuck in last year's paradigm when things were more favourable to stoner's strengths, and yamaha may well have a more flexible bike more resilient in the face of weight or tyre changes. This does not mean that wherever the blame lies the tyre and weight changes which were somewhat late in the course of events have not impacted the bike though, which is what I am disputing with jumkie.
 
OK, on the strength o my predictions so far for this season, I predict Stoner to win every race from now on.
 
Its gone in the complete opposite of what you would expect. Qatar, anyone with any sense bets big money on Stoner, Lorenzo wins. Next 2 races, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa prohibitive favorites, Stoner wins both. Next 3 races, tracks where most figure Stoner will rebound, Lorenzo wins all 3. Assen, Lorenzo heavy favorite, Stoner wins. Strange year indeed. Can Stoner possibly lose PI later this year.
 
All of them risk this in mixed condition. Why do boxers get up after they've been knocked out? Its many things, reaction, guts, reflex, training, etc. Except Stoner has thrown in the towel on continuing his career. Thats a big deal not to be glossed over. U can argue it hasnt affected him, but the very act of quitting/retiring is proof positive it has. Hes not retiring because of some physical problem, right? So the reason is abstract, and where do abstract things reside? Its not a dig at Stoner, though im sure u read it that way. I know u and many cant accept this simple truth, but the man has been affected mentally, and i contend it has distracted his focus.



Often times riders have said that distraction can screw up their focus. That is way many try to avoid for example contract disputes in the middle of a title run. They often say they are not trying to think of those things and focus solely on the the job. However perhaps u didnt hear Stoners retirement announcement, but he mention several aspects of GP that bother him. Have all those things been solved by his decision to retire? Just yesterday he made a point of accusing the powers that be that every move Bridgestone has done has been detrimental to him. Interesting, maybe u interpret that as it not bothering him? You know what stuff like that does to a person's focus?



Awww, c'mon mang! Don't get that started again. Where is it written that every rider must live up to the expectations of fans. Every individual in the world has the right to follow his own script and pursue happiness as he sees fit. Stoner's a quiet, very private guy who prefers to live out the balance of his life hunting, fishing, drinking beer and making babies. Personally I see that as a much more satisfying choice, as compared to Colin Edwards humiliatingly wangling around the track at the back on some piece of .... CRT bike just because he's addicted to the Peter Pan/Lost Boys GP Circus. But .... it ... if that's his vision of a fulfilling life, I say go for it. It's his life, not mine.
 

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