2025 Silly Season

The 2025 Silly Season has kicked off with di Giannantonio's manager already talking to KTM. Seem's way to early to be talking to KTM but if the prediction that Acosta moves to the factory team for 2025 then the displaced rider which would be Miller as Binder is contracted to 2026 is unlikely to go to the satellite team.

2025 contracts, not that it seems to mean a lot nowadays;
Luca Marini 2025 HRC
Brad Binder 2026 KTM
Johann Zarco 2025 LCR Honda
and that's it so far

Carlo Pernat has also said KTM is an option for the Beast, but KTM have denied any contact.

I personally think a lot of the 2025 silly season is going to revolve around Marc Marquez' performance on the Ducati, and which factory team he opts for (if at all) if he is in demand.

There is an older thread started on this, but I like this being the more official thread for 2025 discussions with the latest updates. So, from the previous thread:

So as a reminder (bold is confirmed):

Lenovo Ducati
Francesco Bagnaia (Almost certain to be extended)
Enea Bastiannini

Red Bull KTM
Brad Binder
Jack Miller

Aprilia Racing
Aleix Espargaro
Maverick Vinales

Repsol Honda
Joan Mir
Luca Marini

Monster Yamaha
Fabio Quartararo
Alex Rins

Gas Gas
Augusto Fernandez
Pedro Acosta

Pramac Ducati
Jorge Martin
Franco Morbidelli

VR46 Ducati
Marco Bezzechi
Luca Marini (Likely to be retained as his half brother owns the team)

Gresini Ducati
Alex Marquez
Marc Marquez

Trackhouse Racing Aprilia
Miguel Oliveira
Raul Fernandez

LCR Honda
Johann Zarco
Takaagi Nakagami

3rd KTM Team (Husqvarna?)
?
?

For me the main takeaways are:

Where will Marc Marquez be for 2025?
Will Jorge Martin be promoted to the factory Ducati team? If not, where will he go?
Will Fabio Quartararo leave Yamaha?
Will any seats be free at Aprilia? Aleix has said this contract would be his last, but I have my doubts.
Will KTM and Yamaha get a 3rd/2nd team respectively?

I expect Marc to sign for KTM unless he has a terrible year. Ducati management doesn't seem too keen on getting him on the official bike, plus the problem of his popularity in Italy. I'm sure they'll offer him a Pramac seat on moderate wages if he does well, which Marc's gonna reject probably. I'm sure he has in his mind a possibility of returning to Honda but not so soon.

Jorge will be promoted to the factory Duc if he repeats his performance. If not, KTM is a possibility if Marc doesn't go there, and just like Márquez he has already a shared history with KTM.

Fabio will most likely leave Yamaha unless left with no options. The probable options: Aprilia is the most sensible choice if Aleix retires, but also Aprilia is known to not want to spend too much money and Fabio would command high wages. Fabio could also choose to ride the Honda if they improve the bike sensibly and quickly, and Mir doesn't impress. Fabio could also do 'a Marc' and ride one of the satellite Ducs to prove his worth. And of course, there's the slim (IMO) chance the concessions help Yamaha a great deal and they manage to build a quick bike just in time to retain Quartararo, but it seeems the least likely of the options, they don't have much time.

Also let's see what happens with the rumored VR46/Yamaha partnership. I expect some of the least favored riders to fight for factory Yamaha seats.

MichaelBolton said:

I expect Marc to sign for KTM unless he has a terrible year. Ducati management doesn't seem too keen on getting him on the official bike, plus the problem of his popularity in Italy. I'm sure they'll offer him a Pramac seat on moderate wages if he does well, which Marc's gonna reject probably. I'm sure he has in his mind a possibility of returning to Honda but not so soon.

Click to expand...

I think that is what everyone expects tbh. Aprilia don;t seem interested (due to their own incompetence) and the sway that Marc seems to have with Red Bull (as we all know, they've terminated their Honda contract a year early because Marc is no longer there). The main curveball with KTM is Acosta. I'm still on the fence on how he will do this season.
The conundrum that faces KTM is the same that faces factory Ducati. If Marquez is competitive on the Gresini next yr, then he is a major threat if on a factory bike for 2025 so do you hire him to keep him from a rival? Gigi has said as much recently.
I'd also be hard pressed to see how the factory team justifies keeping their lineup if Marc beats one or more of them (I'm including Martin in this, as he is basically on a white factory bike). As you said, politics will likely come into play and Ducati have more than one cut off their nose to spite their face

MichaelBolton said:

Jorge will be promoted to the factory Duc if he repeats his performance. If not, KTM is a possibility if Marc doesn't go there, and just like Márquez he has already a shared history with KTM.

Click to expand...

I think Jorge will look elsewhere next yr if he doesnt get the factory promotion. If Bastianini has a 2022 style season then it makes the decision harder. So many variables at present make this silly season an exciting prospect.

MichaelBolton said:

Fabio will most likely leave Yamaha unless left with no options. The probable options: Aprilia is the most sensible choice if Aleix retires, but also Aprilia is known to not want to spend too much money and Fabio would command high wages. Fabio could also choose to ride the Honda if they improve the bike sensibly and quickly, and Mir doesn't impress. Fabio could also do 'a Marc' and ride one of the satellite Ducs to prove his worth. And of course, there's the slim (IMO) chance the concessions help Yamaha a great deal and they manage to build a quick bike just in time to retain Quartararo, but it seeems the least likely of the options, they don't have much time.

Click to expand...

The problem with the concessions, is they are reliant on teams using them. Cal Crutchlow has repeatedly said Yamaha haven't used him enough so I fear it will be more of the same story.
I doubt he will, but if Aleix follows through with his comment that this contract will be his last, then Aprilia have a vacant seat. Of course most say that Miguel would get that, but I think an option of getting Fabio would be silly to ignore. It's no guarantee that Mav will be retained either. He could decide to be a rev limiter tester again.

I think the general want from fans is Fabio on the Aprilia, and Marc on the KTM.

MichaelBolton said:

Also let's see what happens with the rumored VR46/Yamaha partnership. I expect some of the least favored riders to fight for factory Yamaha seats.

Click to expand...

Maybe Mir will go to Yamaha if Quartararo leaves. It could also be tempting for Jorge Martin if he knows the door at Factory Ducati is closed.

#22 said:

I think that is what everyone expects tbh. Aprilia don;t seem interested (due to their own incompetence) and the sway that Marc seems to have with Red Bull (as we all know, they've terminated their Honda contract a year early because Marc is no longer there). The main curveball with KTM is Acosta. I'm still on the fence on how he will do this season.
The conundrum that faces KTM is the same that faces factory Ducati. If Marquez is competitive on the Gresini next yr, then he is a major threat if on a factory bike for 2025 so do you hire him to keep him from a rival? Gigi has said as much recently.
I'd also be hard pressed to see how the factory team justifies keeping their lineup if Marc beats one or more of them (I'm including Martin in this, as he is basically on a white factory bike). As you said, politics will likely come into play and Ducati have more than one cut off their nose to spite their face

I think Jorge will look elsewhere next yr if he doesnt get the factory promotion. If Bastianini has a 2022 style season then it makes the decision harder. So many variables at present make this silly season an exciting prospect.

The problem with the concessions, is they are reliant on teams using them. Cal Crutchlow has repeatedly said Yamaha haven't used him enough so I fear it will be more of the same story.
I doubt he will, but if Aleix follows through with his comment that this contract will be his last, then Aprilia have a vacant seat. Of course most say that Miguel would get that, but I think an option of getting Fabio would be silly to ignore. It's no guarantee that Mav will be retained either. He could decide to be a rev limiter tester again.

I think the general want from fans is Fabio on the Aprilia, and Marc on the KTM.

Maybe Mir will go to Yamaha if Quartararo leaves. It could also be tempting for Jorge Martin if he knows the door at Factory Ducati is closed.

Click to expand...

What if both Martin and Bastiannini have rotten seasons and Marquez shines, could Marquez end up on the factory Ducati team ?

After the test at Valencia I'm thinking Marquez could really gel on the Ducati, suppose he actually pulled it off and won the championship ? See my comment above !

I also believe that Bagnaia is not going to three-peat next year, but he'll be in the mix during the season. I wonder if his seat is safe in 2025 if he craps out next year ?

Pedro Acosta is at KTM. Young, fit, disciplined and determined. You would expect he, is on the factory KTM next to Binder in 25.
Hard to see Marquez pushing him out.
It will be interesting to see how MM goes and where he lands.

While we don't know how Acosta will go this year we could perhaps use Acosta's first year in Moto2 as a template for a guess. I suspect that unless he does extra badly in 2024, he will be promoted to the factory team for 2025

warthog1 said:

Pedro Acosta is at KTM. Young, fit, disciplined and determined. You would expect he, is on the factory KTM next to Binder in 25.
Hard to see Marquez pushing him out.
It will be interesting to see how MM goes and where he lands.

Click to expand...

I don't disagree but there is one huge variable: Red Bull.

They basically bankroll KTM and if they insist Marquez be on the bike, it may cause a few headaches.

DavidSim said:

What if both Martin and Bastiannini have rotten seasons and Marquez shines, could Marquez end up on the factory Ducati team ?

Click to expand...

Entirely feasable imo. As I said before, how can you justify having 2 (or more) riders on a factory bike as Martin and Bastianinni are, if they get beaten by an elder statesman of MotoGP on a year old bike? I'm a big Beast fan and want him to succeed on the Factory Duc, but there is a risk to him and Bagnaia from other riders.

DavidSim said:

After the test at Valencia I'm thinking Marquez could really gel on the Ducati, suppose he actually pulled it off and won the championship ? See my comment above !

I also believe that Bagnaia is not going to three-peat next year, but he'll be in the mix during the season. I wonder if his seat is safe in 2025 if he craps out next year ?

Click to expand...

I think Mdubs and I were discussing this on another thread a while ago. To me, the current crop of riders have not really had to battle it out like champions in the 2010's.

By that, I mean firstly the aliens. Dani Pedrosa proved what level he is still at by wildcarding this year and beating both the factory riders. Yes he had tested at that track recently, but look at Crutchlow and other wildcards for comparison. That shows what level Pedrosa, Lorenzo, Stoner, Marquez, and to an extent, Rossi, were at. None of the riders since 2020 have had that hard challenge. Mir was Mr (relative) Consistency in 2020. Fabio gained an early lead then only just held off Bagnaia in 2021, then Bagnaia won his 2 titles on a dominant bike with a record number of DNF's in BOTH seasons (5 iirc).

No way on earth would you have won a title in the 2010's with 5 DNF's. The other thing is consistency. Marc finished every race bar 1 on the podium the last time he wont the title. One reason I'm hoping Marc is at least consistently near the front next year is to see how the other top riders deal with it. I think that is where Marc will likely prevail, if he does. When he has a bad day, he finishes on the podium. As we've seen the last few yrs, a bad day for the current crop of champions in the lower levels of the top 10.

mikesbytes said:

While we don't know how Acosta will go this year we could perhaps use Acosta's first year in Moto2 as a template for a guess. I suspect that unless he does extra badly in 2024, he will be promoted to the factory team for 2025

Click to expand...

Purely hypothetical but what if Acosta outperforms expectations (whatever they are) and has a really good first half of the year. Is there any chance KTM makes a mid-season swap with Pedro and Jack? Has that ever been done?

PRS717 said:

Purely hypothetical but what if Acosta outperforms expectations (whatever they are) and has a really good first half of the year. Is there any chance KTM makes a mid-season swap with Pedro and Jack? Has that ever been done?

Click to expand...

I think it would depend a lot on the contracts for both riders, not necessarily their abilities on two wheels. In my opinion MotoGP is as much about contracts and money as it is about riders and their skills.

Absolutely I think that could happen. While KTM my not (yet) have amboguous contracts with riders that basically says they can put them in any team of the brand they want, they have proven that they persuaded Pol to step aside despite being under contract.

A long time ago in WSBK there was a mid season swap between two Ducati teams and the reason was different brands of tyres with the viewpoint that both of the riders would perform better on the other brand of tyres. To do that they would of had to get the sponsors into agreement

This year we saw 6 of the Ducati riders win race(s), what separated them the most was consistency. MM will certainly be up the pointy end however the unknown will be the level of DNF’s

#22 said:

I don't disagree but there is one huge variable: Red Bull.

They basically bankroll KTM and if they insist Marquez be on the bike, it may cause a few headaches.

Click to expand...

No idea how RB sponsorship will affect things. PA is full of promise though and should have at least a decade of competitive racing ahead of him. I can't see KTM risking losing him to another factory. You would expect Binder would be more vulnerable but he has a contract. They are going to need another team if they want Marquez and Acosta on fatory KTMs it seems.
Dunno how it would be to manage Pedro and Marc on the same team if somehow it did come to that. Potentially very difficult.

warthog1 said:

No idea how RB sponsorship will affect things. PA is full of promise though and should have at least a decade of competitive racing ahead of him. I can't see KTM risking losing him to another factory. You would expect Binder would be more vulnerable but he has a contract. They are going to need another team if they want Marquez and Acosta on factory KTMs it seems.
Dunno how it would be to manage Pedro and Marc on the same team if somehow it did come to that. Potentially very difficult.

Click to expand...

As I said on the other thread I don't think Red Bull corralling so much of the young talent is good for the riders concerned, particularly if the prize for doing well in the junior classes is a Gasgas premier class ride. I don't know how a putative MM/Acosta team would go, Stoner/Pedrosa seemed to be OK. Stoner had no problem sharing his data and they seem to have a friendly relationship now, although it was argued by some Stoner shouldn't have tried to win the 2012 PI race given only DP was in contention for the title. I was going to say Rossi/Lorenzo while obviously bad later on was not too bad early, but iirc there was a wall from the start, ostensibly for tire reasons in 2008 although it probably suited Valentino anyway. The main scenario for MM going to the KTM factory team would be him winning the title imo, which would probably give him precedence over Acosta and make it difficult for Acosta who may be the better long term prospect for them as you say. I don't know when Acosta's current contract ends, but if he is out of contract with KTM and has looked good for Gasgas sure he might well go elsewhere.

A Nastro Azzurro Honda 2001 Rossi type set-up with full factory KTM support and more particularly full Red Bull support might suit either rider, although a one rider team would presumably not be allowed now. With another 2 slots on the grid the other rider on the team could be a very definite number two rider there for development of the bike a la Colin Edwards when Rossi went to Yamaha, or a developing rider just up from Moto 2. i don't think riding for Gasgas next year is going to do much for Acosta's career unless he is a phenomenon of unprecedented proportions or gets the full benefit of significant progress with the KTM bike.

Ktm is progressing and you would expect them to keep doing so.
His first year will be to get to grips with set up and aero plus ride height.
A fair bit to learn and he has time. I expect he will be getting plenty of support from Ktm despite not being in the main factory team. The pressure to ramp up and get instant results shouldn't be there from the team in the first year.
I don't see anybody doing a Marquez and winning it first pop due to the added complexity in set up and new skill sets that conceivably need to be learned

warthog1 said:

Ktm is progressing and you would expect them to keep doing so.
His first year will be to get to grips with set up and aero plus ride height.
A fair bit to learn and he has time. I expect he will be getting plenty of support from Ktm despite not being in the main factory team. The pressure to ramp up and get instant results shouldn't be there from the team in the first year.
I don't see anybody doing a Marquez and winning it first pop due to the added complexity in set up and new skill sets that conceivably need to be learned

Click to expand...

Agree with all that, just don't think Gasgas/Tech3 /whatever is a very well run team, and Acosta imo would be better off being a non-factory rider in name only like Rossi on the Nastro Azzurro Honda Europe team in 2001 as I said, which I guess could be managed from the getgo.

I only see him being in that team for one year. The other factories want him so he has a strong hand to play

If things go well for Marc at Gresini, why shouldn't he stay there? If Pedro does a half-decent job at Tech3 he will replace Jack at the factory KTM team.
I don't see them dumping Brad and I think it would be a massive mistake if they did.