<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Nov 2 2006, 05:10 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Hi onyurtail, I predict Hayden will win.
Here is the short answer
Inevitably in all championship runs there is a crescendo (trend) when looking at the career as a whole. There are some areas that one can highlight and deduce that these are significant facts that led to a tendency. The poll here is asking if Hayden will retain the title. Predictions, as you assert, should be based on some fact or trend or belief that the future result is gonna happen, and I agree. But you have to admit, many simply use these polls to root for their guy and take shots at the other, and so I sometimes point that out (which I’ve noticed doesn’t play well here); as you yourself pointed out by saying “some of us” (meaning not all) have giving some fact to support their claim. So these are the reasons why I think Hayden will repeat. (Now before I get a plethora of responses, here is my disclaimer, yes I know this is speculative, but so is the prediction that Rossi or any other racer will win.) (Not many, except for say one guy predicted Bayliss to win in Valencia, who was that? You should go to Las Vegas. And not many gave Hayden a chance after Portugal, except for a few, who was that?)
I think Rossi will be Hayden’s strongest competition next year, (but Loris & Melandri should be contenders, maybe Pedrosa). Having said that, my predictions are based in regards to Rossi’s and other legends that have made mammoth runs like Rossi, namely
oohan, Lawson, and Rainey. The following are my reasons based on facts:
Fact—Hayden is the 2006 Champion
Momentum: As all previous above champs (except Lawson, who later notched them in a row), they all started their runs consecutively (this means in a row) after beating a formidable champion. So based on historical trends of momentum, I predict Hayden will begin a run of championships.
Fact—GP Starts: Rossi (258) Doohan (137) Lawson (127) Rainey (95) Hayden (64)
Learning Curve: (ability to learn quickly)
Hayden has had the least experience on European tracks; during this time he has had a marvelous learning curve. This trend points to an even more successful campaign next year. Rossi was practically reared on European tracks. So based on learning curve, I give the advantage to Hayden.
Fact—Rossi crashed out at Valencia
Mental Strength and Taste of Championship
You hear in sports circles the cliché, its 90% mental and 10% physical. When the championship was at its apex of intensity, Rossi crashed out under duress (stress), while Hayden was in complete control. Rossi historically hasn’t had to fight tooth and nail for a championship, and when he did, he lost it. This partly resulted in Hayden wining the championship; and once “sharks taste blood” they want more. Now, granted, Rossi has tasted championships also and he will be hungrier than ever. Advantage: Draw.
Fact—All former American Champions above won their respective national titles before the GP title.
Hayden won his respective national title then was catapulted up to the panicle of racing. He raced on tracks for the first time and against racers who had several years of familiarity and experience on these tracks and held his own, resulting in a top 5 finish in points (last year was top 3). Judging from the historical trend of America racers along with his rapid rise in the sport, historical trend advantage: Hayden.
Fact—Championships Honda (14), Yamaha (9), Suzuki (7)
Hayden’s developmental ability and humbleness:
Hayden will be on the factory Honda next year. Granted all has changed going to the 800s, however, considering that Honda has had most world titles, largest budget, best packages, rapid development, etc, etc, historically speaking, the rider on this brand has the advantage. Moreover, Hayden, for all intents and purposes was Honda’s development rider this year (the number 2 guy to Pedrosa, thanks in part to Puig); yet he stayed humble and out performed his teammate, and was crowned champ despite the catastrophic result in Portugal. Rossi has been called many things, but humble, not so much. Advantage: Hayden.
Here are a few other interesting trends that I base my prediction on:
Doohan (5 titles) won only 1 race before he became the world champ; yet ran in Europe only 4 years before he accomplished the crown, then won 5 in a row.
Lawson (4 titles) won zero races before he became the world champ; yet ran in Europe only 2 years before he accomplished the crown, then ran 1, skipped, then won 3 in a row.
Rainey (3 titles) won only 3 races before he became the world champ; yet ran in Europe only 3 years before he accomplished the crown, then won 3 in a row.
Hayden (1 title) won only 1 race before he became world champ; yet ran in Europe only 3 years before he accomplished the crown, then won 1 (?) in a row (TBA). (This means: To Be Announced)
As you can see, there are stark similarities, especially for the American racers. Based on precedent tendency; I predict Hayden will continue to win.
And lastly, as I said above, all the above champions have had a curved parabolic crescendo (apex/climax). In simple terms, the string of championships was like a semi-circle on a graph. All of the above legendary multiple year champions have had an end to their sting of championships. Here is how many wins each one got in their last year as a world champ:
Doohan (8), Lawson (4), Rainey (3), Rossi (5)
Compared to how they preformed the previous years during their string of championships, this trend points to the tail end of their run. Since I said Rossi would be Hayden’s greatest competition, and since Rossi’s machine like production of wins has been dramatically reduced, then I predict, Trend Advantage: Hayden.
There are several other reason why I think Hayden will retain the title, but these are more based on gut feeling rather that some factual trend. Now before I start getting a plethora of responses saying I’m off, remember, we are just chatting away about what we think. And though, I have felt heavily outnumber here at this site, I have stayed on because I just like motorcycles, and racing.
(Check my disclaimer)
Racejunkie....
Good response and very good points but there are two that you made that I disagree on... and I mention them without being condescending.
First is Rossi winning 5 races this year not winning the championship... the fact is that he won 11 in his last year of winning the championship. No biggie, honest mistake.... minor point.
And the second and most important is your comment on the mental strength and the taste of a championship. I disagree that Valentino never fought tooth and nail for the championship. Do you recall the incident in Qatar 2004? Sete accused Rossi's team of removing sand from his starting position moving Rossi to the rear of the grid. He did make one hell of a start but unfortunately crashed out, putting the title somewhat in jepaordy. From that incident, what did Valentino vow? That Sete would no longer win a race. From that race, Valentino pulled off the last three wins to win the championship and then went on an eleven win season with Sete winning ..... Kinda seems like Rossi jinxed him didn't it?
What about Rossi making up a 51 point deficit? How is that for mental strength and tasting the championship. Do you think Nicky would have the mental makeup to do that?
Unfortunately because is was the last race of the season and Rossi is unable to fight back in 2006, we don't know how Rossi will respond till next year but Nicky has already quoted that he apparently has made Rossi mad in taking his title. I know it's premature but based on the lap times laid down at Valencia with the 800cc machine, 2007 is going to be an interesting season.
Oops, had to add about your momentum theory... true Nicky has momentum, but to only win two races in your first year as champion is kinda hard to swallow when Valentino won 11 in his first two years as champion, 9 the next two and then 11 for 2005.
