What will you do when Rossi retires?

JKant said:

Marquez is the best rider on the grid today, no two ways about that. In fact, had he ridden sensibly in 2015, he might have contested the title against Lorenzo.

My point, however, was that the Yamaha's results did not, in fact, deteriorate over the latter half of the season. At least for Rossi.


That's also a gamble in many ways. Superb as he is when the setup, tyres and conditions are good, Lorenzo might end up at the other extreme when the situation calls on him to ride around the problem (ref: FP3 Phillip Island 2016; 21st place behind Rabat).

There's no point finishing 15 seconds ahead of Marquez in one race, only to finish 5 places behind in the next one.

Still, Yamaha did put the 'best' contract he'd ever been offered on the table, he felt it was time for a change of scenery and assumed (not unreasonably) that he could contend for the championship on a steadily improving Ducati, a bike that had registered 8 podiums the year before, and almost registered a 2-3 finish at Qatar, all under riders who were good but well short of alien material.

Wasn't much Yamaha could do about that. Though given Vinales' long term prospects, it seems to have worked out quite well for them.


Rossi may not have cared in 2007 but I'd say Lorenzo definitely cared in 2016.

More importantly, if Marquez has a 2014-like season, neither Rossi, nor Lorenzo would have a chance. But Marquez isn't a sure thing - he was too close to disaster several times in the season and his pts cushion at the end wasn't really large enough to accomodate more than one major mishap.

And if something like that happened in 2017, a rider like Rossi who could be relied upon to be not just consistent but fast in all conditions & on all tyre types would be a stronger bet to capitalise on the situation. On Bridgestones, he finished just 5 pts behind Lorenzo. On Michelins, if not for the Mugello incident, he'd have finished 46 pts ahead.

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Another quote for you viz "if ifs and buts were crackers and nuts every day would be Christmas". You don't seem to have any problem with making broad and confident assumptions/statements yourself while taking strong issue with minor points in posts made by others.

It is what it is, the points tallies were what they were, I have no problem giving Rossi credit for his performances in recent seasons, but the facts are that he couldn't close the deal against Lorenzo in 2015 and that both his seconds to MM were distant, while Lorenzo pushed him quite closely in 2013, admittedly in MM's rookie season and with the PI debacle aiding Lorenzo to still be in the fight at the start of the last race. If I was to play your game in regard to Lorenzo being about to be passed by Dovi or Vinales or concerning Rossi putatively having a greater points margins over Lorenzo, then Lorenzo really should have 4 premier class titles since MM's margin was gained by what was imo and that of others an illegal move on the last corner at Jerez.

i have no idea how strong Lorenzo's motivation was to finish ahead of Rossi as opposed to winning the title last season, but for all we know he might have decided he didn't have Yamaha's full backing, that there was a tyre conspiracy against him, or even that the tyres were just substandard and he couldn't win on them, and have decided not to risk too much looking forward to this season with a new team on a different bike. I actually don't think there is much chance of him getting a tyre which really suits him at Ducati or was if he stayed at Yamaha, but he may have felt that Ducati would at least be all out for him, similar to Rossi in 2010.

michaelm said:

You just don't get it do you? MM and Lorenzo certainly do and did, hence their remarks about the booing after the 2015 end of season imbroglio.

Hemingway was a journalist among other things as well as writing works of fiction, and there is a famous quote (or perhaps formerly famous given our discussion) from him about sport, something like "There are only 3 sports, bullfighting, motor racing and mountaineering, all the rest are merely games", his point being I believe that competitors risked their lives in those pursuits, very much so in motor sport in his day of course. This is the thing about gp bike racing, it is still dangerous, and was even more so when the old fogeys on here were following it at the height of the 500 two stroke era when the bikes were absolutely vicious. Many are bike riders themselves and hence aware of the dangers of riding in general. Hence the disdain for so-called fans who treat the sport and the competitors as though it is soccer or lacrosse, or perhaps view the whole thing as some sort of advanced feature video game.

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Except that Ernest did not write that.
Well, not that I've been able to determine.

27 July 1957 is a clue.

Dr No said:

Except that Ernest did not write that.
Well, not that I've been able to determine.

27 July 1957 is a clue.

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The Big Apple: ?Auto racing, bullfighting, and mountain climbing are the only real sports?all others are games?

michaelm said:

You just don't get it do you? MM and Lorenzo certainly do and did, hence their remarks about the booing after the 2015 end of season imbroglio.

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I think Marquez and Lorenzo are sportsmen living the dream. Riding a prototype motorcycle fast, and getting paid millions to do so. Possible only because its a spectator sport. And until we find some way to winnow the 'good' fans from the 'bad' ones, also charging the good ones a little bit more perhaps, that's how it'll go.

Sure Marquez & Lorenzo had a few bad days. I think Marquez summed up best -

For me, it is something that for example in soccer I don't like, so of course I don't like it in MotoGP and also if it is against me. But in the end it is something that - I'm not stupid, and I know that it will be usual. So we must adapt.

Hemingway was a journalist among other things as well as writing works of fiction, and there is a famous quote (or perhaps formerly famous given our discussion) from him about sport, something like "There are only 3 sports, bullfighting, motor racing and mountaineering, all the rest are merely games", his point being I believe that competitors risked their lives in those pursuits, very much so in motor sport in his day of course. This is the thing about gp bike racing, it is still dangerous, and was even more so when the old fogeys on here were following it at the height of the 500 two stroke era when the bikes were absolutely vicious. Many are bike riders themselves and hence aware of the dangers of riding in general. Hence the disdain for so-called fans who treat the sport and the competitors as though it is soccer or lacrosse, or perhaps view the whole thing as some sort of advanced feature video game.

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I'm aware of Hemingway's quote (though I'm unfamiliar with his general body of work). But seeing as its not unheard of for bullfighters to be booed, I'm unsurprised (and relatively unperturbed) about the same in the case of GP riders. Though it would be odd to see mountaineers get booed. I'm sure 2000 years ago, there would have been gladiators in the colloseum getting booed for a considerable more dangerous performance. Today the same thing would invite much more respect. Probably. I think. Progress.

michaelm said:

Another quote for you viz "if ifs and buts were crackers and nuts every day would be Christmas". You don't seem to have any problem with making broad and confident assumptions/statements yourself while taking strong issue with minor points in posts made by others.

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I think you're getting too ruffled about a minor correction to a minor point.

It is what it is, the points tallies were what they were, I have no problem giving Rossi credit for his performances in recent seasons, but the facts are that he couldn't close the deal against Lorenzo in 2015 and that both his seconds to MM were distant, while Lorenzo pushed him quite closely in 2013, admittedly in MM's rookie season and with the PI debacle aiding Lorenzo to still be in the fight at the start of the last race. If I was to play your game in regard to Lorenzo being about to be passed by Dovi or Vinales or concerning Rossi putatively having a greater points margins over Lorenzo, then Lorenzo really should have 4 premier class titles since MM's margin was gained by what was imo and that of others an illegal move on the last corner at Jerez.

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Don't really see how Marquez' actions at Jerez tie in here. The legitimacy of his 2013 title isn't really the topic of discussion. We were AFAIK examining the future prospects of Rossi & Lorenzo (with reference to the past performances). And also debating whether Rossi was trading consistency for speed last year.

As far as Motegi is concerned, the circumstances were unusual. Set that aside and Rossi ends up with the same number of crashes as his last championship season in 2009.

With respect to Lorenzo at the same venue, its a moot point. Forced or unforced, they both crashed. No impact on the final standings.

i have no idea how strong Lorenzo's motivation was to finish ahead of Rossi as opposed to winning the title last season, but for all we know he might have decided he didn't have Yamaha's full backing, that there was a tyre conspiracy against him, or even that the tyres were just substandard and he couldn't win on them, and have decided not to risk too much looking forward to this season with a new team on a different bike. I actually don't think there is much chance of him getting a tyre which really suits him at Ducati or was if he stayed at Yamaha, but he may have felt that Ducati would at least be all out for him, similar to Rossi in 2010.

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I don't think tyres would have been a concern for Lorenzo early last year. He was the strongest in pre-season testing on Michelins and convincingly won at Qatar. If anything, he was expected to be dominant on Michelins. Between that and the Ducati revival his prospects were pretty good (though in hindsight, perhaps Suzuki would been a better option). Also, #1 status at Ducati, aside from a huge pay bump, probably didn't hurt.

JKant said:

I think you're getting too ruffled about a minor correction to a minor point.


Don't really see how Marquez' actions at Jerez tie in here. The legitimacy of his 2013 title isn't really the topic of discussion. We were AFAIK examining the future prospects of Rossi & Lorenzo (with reference to the past performances). And also debating whether Rossi was trading consistency for speed last year.

As far as Motegi is concerned, the circumstances were unusual. Set that aside and Rossi ends up with the same number of crashes as his last championship season in 2009.

With respect to Lorenzo at the same venue, its a moot point. Forced or unforced, they both crashed. No impact on the final standings.


I don't think tyres would have been a concern for Lorenzo early last year. He was the strongest in pre-season testing on Michelins and convincingly won at Qatar. If anything, he was expected to be dominant on Michelins. Between that and the Ducati revival his prospects were pretty good (though in hindsight, perhaps Suzuki would been a better option). Also, #1 status at Ducati, aside from a huge pay bump, probably didn't hurt.

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So unprovable hypotheses/would'ves could'ves should'ves are only problematic when employed by those with whom you disagree? I actually think MM would have been the victim of a great injustice if Lorenzo had somehow prevailed by the results of the last race in 2013, because PI 2013 was a complete debacle authored by Dorna. I was using the effect of the Jerez last corner pass on the points as a counter example of what I could argue if I went down similar tracks to you when you argued about what might have happened if Rossi hadn't crashed out at Motegi, your certainty that Lorenzo would have been passed if he hadn't crashed etc; as I have repeatedly said I am very happy to deal in what actually happened.

The tyre thing was the topic of much discussion on here last year. The tyre which particularly suited Lorenzo was discontinued because of a tendency to explode when employed on Ducatis, and no replacement appeared within the season. I am happy to put all the tyre problems last year down to Michelin not having their act down, perhaps understandably in their first year back, my only hypothesis being that if Jorge hadn't signed elsewhere Yamaha might have put more pressure on for a replacement "Jorge" tyre, and that of course can only be a hypothesis. I also tend to think Dorna are happy with substandard tyres because it appears to have mixed the results up, obviously also an opinion only.

However you want to slice it, and acclaim Rossi's consistency in the latter half of the season when the title was either decided or pretty much decided barring injury to MM, and did not include much in the way of winning, the other main currency for the likes of Jorge, MM and Valentino (also an opinion but not I think outrageously out there), tyres and DNFs were a problem for the Yamahas last year after the Yamaha had looked the superior bike early season, with tyre options being unusable on some weekends, wet tyres which either delaminated or were unrideable with Jorge's riding style, and front end washouts for both factory riders, who both had a large number of DNFs by their historical standards if some of the DNFs are not conveniently excluded (EDIT I looked it up; Valentino had 1 retirement in 2009 as far as I can determine which accords with my memory).

Dr No said:

Except that Ernest did not write that.
Well, not that I've been able to determine.

27 July 1957 is a clue.

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Sure, I looked it up as well, it is commonly attributed to him but not documented to be from him, and particularly unlikely to emanate from him given his distaste for bullfighting, which I share btw.

I believe I am on safer ground than on that previous occasion in saying that Hemingway did win a Nobel prize though.


My point stands however, GP bike racing is a sport where riders can and still do die on track, and many of the past greats such as Sheene, Doohan and Schwantz ended their careers rather banged up, to say nothing of Wayne Rainey becoming paraplegic which I unfortunately witnessed on live TV. I utterly disagree with booing of riders and cheering of crashes in such a sport, and vehemently dispute that it is de rigeur for a soccer mentality to be transferred to the sport because that is the "modern" way. If this attitude places me on the wrong side of a generational divide, so be it, and it is not a divide I have any desire to cross.

Jorge and MM did both point out that they were actually risking their lives when the booing controversy was on, in quotes other than the one JKant has chosen to post, and if you read Stoner's biography or interviews around and post his retirement, the fact that the great unwashed element among motogp fandom were back to their usual backbiting within weeks of Marco Simoncelli's death was a significant contributor to his disillusionment with the sport and consequent decision to retire.

michaelm said:

The tyre thing was the topic of much discussion on here last year. The tyre which particularly suited Lorenzo was discontinued because of a tendency to explode when employed on Ducatis, and no replacement appeared within the season. I am happy to put all the tyre problems last year down to Michelin not having their act down, perhaps understandably in their first year back, my only hypothesis being that if Jorge hadn't signed elsewhere Yamaha might have put more pressure on for a replacement "Jorge" tyre, and that of course can only be a hypothesis. I also tend to think Dorna are happy with substandard tyres because it appears to have mixed the results up, obviously also an opinion only.

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I liked that DORNA tried to mix things up with employing standardised electronics packages but having the tyres and the electronics changes happen in the same year is something I feel they could have managed better. They may not have had much control with Bridgestone pulling out of the series but they did have influence on the electronics rule changes.

Trying to understand performance issues when two variables have been changed is always going to be more difficult than working them out separately. I think a tyres one year then electronics the next approach would have been a better. Dorna want close exciting racing so I doubt they are happy with the Michelin tyres last season being so unpredictable. They caused more crashes and contributed to the championship not being as close as it should have.

JKant said:

More importantly, if Marquez has a 2014-like season, neither Rossi, nor Lorenzo would have a chance. But Marquez isn't a sure thing - he was too close to disaster several times in the season and his pts cushion at the end wasn't really large enough to accomodate more than one major mishap.

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Very true, but that overlooks the fact that ALL of Marquez's dnf's occurred AFTER he had wrapped up the title as he clearly changed his race strategy given he had the title.

In reality, it is quite fair to suggest that were the title battle a little closer, it is likely his DNF rate at season's end would also have been different so in essence, the point gap debate is mute.

It was still a 40 point gap though. Not exactly small.

p4p1 said:

It was still a 40 point gap though. Not exactly small.

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Very small when you think 2002 that was a 140 point difference. A 147 point difference in 2005.
It gets worse when you go look back a few decades, when Sheene won his 2 the points difference was 24 and 27 with almost half the races of today and on bikes that were lethal. Was an achievement to finish.

Theo said:

Very small when you think 2002 that was a 140 point difference. A 147 point difference in 2005.
It gets worse when you go look back a few decades, when Sheene won his 2 the points difference was 24 and 27 with almost half the races of today and on bikes that were lethal. Was an achievement to finish.

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Re: "Was an achievement to finish"
In pre-war broom-broom car racing, I've heard that points were awarded even for DNFs, based on the fraction of race completed. Not sure if bike racing ever did the same.

I think they also used to award 1 pt for a win...least points wins the season.

(Nerdy: I'll get my coat)

Theo said:

Very small when you think 2002 that was a 140 point difference. A 147 point difference in 2005.
It gets worse when you go look back a few decades, when Sheene won his 2 the points difference was 24 and 27 with almost half the races of today and on bikes that were lethal. Was an achievement to finish.

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Bottom line is that MM was more than 75 points in front with 3 races still to go.

Agree about the riders of yesteryear, although Sheene as a rider was before my time, the battle was against the bikes as much and probably more than the other riders.

MM was pretty reckless at PI and Sepang. It's pretty clear he took chances that he wouldn't have if the championship was still alive. He doesn't seem to care how many points he wins the title by and is more focussed on how many race wins he can get.

It makes sense to me. Be pragmatic to win the championship for Honda
- then win races to satisfy his own nature.

Dr No said:

Re: "Was an achievement to finish"
In pre-war broom-broom car racing, I've heard that points were awarded even for DNFs, based on the fraction of race completed. Not sure if bike racing ever did the same.

I think they also used to award 1 pt for a win...least points wins the season.

(Nerdy: I'll get my coat)

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How long before the selfie generation gets up in arms because their not rewarded participation points?

Theo said:

Very small when you think 2002 that was a 140 point difference. A 147 point difference in 2005.
It gets worse when you go look back a few decades, when Sheene won his 2 the points difference was 24 and 27 with almost half the races of today and on bikes that were lethal. Was an achievement to finish.

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Don't forget in 1976, Sheene refused to race the IOM and having mathematically secured the title also pulled out of the final three rounds.

By 1977 he had been instrumental in having the Island removed from the calendar. I do take your point though. As you say, there were far less races back then and the 27 point difference that year was considered as a huge margin.

JohnnyKnockdown said:

How long before the selfie generation gets up in arms because their not rewarded participation points?

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When they also race unreliable, dangerous rickety shitboxes over long distances on ..... roads..
Then again, what generation is it that does the wax-your-moustache, wear-a-tweed-suit and go on a "gentleman's" ride? Ffs, lucky it's for a good cause, or I'd hook in harder.

Arrabbiata1 said:

Don't forget in 1976, Sheene refused to race the IOM and having mathematically secured the title also pulled out of the final three rounds.

By 1977 he had been instrumental in having the Island removed from the calendar. I do take your point though. As you say, there were far less races back then and the 27 point difference that year was considered as a huge margin.

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Shows how the sport has changed. WC doesn't even bother to attend rounds (why risk your life for start money?) 500s.were pretty much the Suzuki cup (barring the last 4T win until the rulez were changed) ditto the 350s (except: Yanmie cup)
I can't wrap my head around the differences from 40 years back, but it shows....Something. People didn't walk away in droves.

Arrabbiata1 said:

Don't forget in 1976, Sheene refused to race the IOM and having mathematically secured the title also pulled out of the final three rounds.

By 1977 he had been instrumental in having the Island removed from the calendar. I do take your point though. As you say, there were far less races back then and the 27 point difference that year was considered as a huge margin.

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I've ridden round the IoM course, its evil I think, that they race it must be to have a death wish.