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Stoner Cant Match Japanese Might

lad

Joined Jul 2008
324 Posts | 0+
FORMER world champion Casey Stoner will struggle to match the might of the Japanese MotoGP machines this season, according to countryman Chris Vermeulen.

Vermeulen, a winner in the elite series for Suzuki who has returned to world superbikes this year, says Stoner's smaller Italian Ducati team got everything right in his title-winning year of 2007.

But he says while Stoner will be competitive, he is unlikely to be able to snare a second crown.

"I think it's always going to be hard for him to win against the might of the big Japanese on a Ducati," Vermeulen said.

"I think he's one of the most talented riders out there. He doesn't care, he just gets on and twists the throttle and he does it very well.

"I hope for him that he's up there challenging but I realistically think that Yamaha and Honda are going to be harder for Ducati to beat this year.

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"Ducati were really at an advantage when the 800cc came out even though Honda built the rules around it but the Japanese seem better at refining things and improving," Vermeulen said.

"I'm not taking anything away from Ducati but they are much bigger manufacturers and the bike plays such a big role in MotoGP.

"I don't know what Ducati have got in the pipeline or anything but that's what I'm seeing from outside.

"I think Casey's going to be in there with Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa but whether he can actually have a chance at that championship we'll have to wait and see.

"I think the `07 bike was very good - not better than any other bike - but he adapted, but there were three or four other Ducatis out there that he beat as well, so you can't take anything away from him.

"But you have to make your own luck and your own opportunities and Ducati just got it perfect," he said.
 
Chris vermeulen is in a better position to make an informed comment than I am, but I do not entirely agree with him. Beating rossi/burgess/yamaha would seem the problem to me, not the japanese in general. Ducati have come up with competitive bikes in years other than 2007, 2006 for instance when loris may have gone close if not for his crash. Ducati corse as opposed to ducati per se is also reputedly relatively well funded, although depending on how much yamaha and honda are prepared to expend in these financial times their potential resources both financial and engineering are obviously greater.
 
Very interesting pov. Ducati don't seem to have too many problems winning in wsbk even though the Japanese do not 'officially' support the teams using their machines. However in this series ducati do have a large influence in the regs......


He may have a point in motogp, it might be the engine regs that make it difficult for ducati this year in comparison to the jap giants and their resources.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (michaelm @ Apr 6 2010, 10:26 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Chris vermeulen is in a better position to make an informed comment than I am, but I do not entirely agree with him. Beating rossi/burgess/yamaha would seem the problem to me, not the japanese in general. Ducati have come up with competitive bikes in years other than 2007, 2006 for instance when loris may have gone close if not for his crash. Ducati corse as opposed to ducati per se is also reputedly relatively well funded, although depending on how much yamaha and honda are prepared to expend in these financial times their potential resources both financial and engineering are obviously greater.

I agree with you that the problem seems to be rossi/burgess/yamaha.
The ducati has been a competitive bike since '06, I agree, but they surly had a form top in'07?
With the current practice times and listening to the riders and teams I think a bet on Stoner with the current odds are a really bad bet. I don't think the odds are at all reflecting the strength relationship as it appear. It's not that I rule him out it just look like it's going to be harder than ever.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Apr 6 2010, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>With the current practice times and listening to the riders and teams I think a bet on Stoner with the current odds are a really bad bet. I don't think the odds are at all reflecting the strength relationship as it appear. It's not that I rule him out it just look like it's going to be harder than ever.
I agree with you about the odds (as does even barry, I think). Even apart from his previous record, rossi's 2 recent championships and practice form surely should make him a more pronounced favourite. Bookmakers are not known particularly for sentimentality though; I know a bookmaker well who fields at the major horse racing track in sydney, and she bases her odds purely on mathematics and does not look at the form etc of the horses. This is not universally true of big bookmakers who do sometimes choose to gamble. However the odds on the 2010 championship are fairly consistent for several operators, and hence presumably are based on weight of money. Such odds have proven quite predictive in many spheres, including political elections. I can't imagine a few australian stoner fans could warp international betting markets unless the markets are very small, which I guess is possible in the case of motogp.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Apr 6 2010, 06:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I agree with you that the problem seems to be rossi/burgess/yamaha.
The ducati has been a competitive bike since '06, I agree, but they surly had a form top in'07?
With the current practice times and listening to the riders and teams I think a bet on Stoner with the current odds are a really bad bet. I don't think the odds are at all reflecting the strength relationship as it appear. It's not that I rule him out it just look like it's going to be harder than ever.


Ducati had a real chance in 2006 to go out of the 990 class in glory - if only Glibernau hadn't taken out Capirossi. After that they certainly came into 2007 having gotten the formula right(er) than anybody else for the 800's. After Yamaha AND Rossi screwed themselves in 2006 they were outclassed (speed - acceleration - pure grunt) by the Ducati/ Stoner combination in 2007. But then the Rossi/ Burgess/ Yamaha comeback started (and that is the order of priority - Yamaha is the most switchable part of that equation). Now we have year 4 of the 800's and with so much already electronically (over-) refined AND the end of this series in sight I don't see any more major developments. Engine conservation rules have pushed the Japanese to less revs and more low-mid range grunt, but nobody is doing anything major, except maybe Ducati with more carbon-fibre parts, which won't be pivotal in terms of outright performance. Bottom line for me is that I still see Ducati being competitive and maybe Hayden could make the podium as 3rd once or twice, Stoner more frequently, but then they'll have to watch out for Spies. My bet is Yamaha for Rider and Manufacturer Championship with Ducati and Honda fighting for runner-up.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Apr 6 2010, 06:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I agree with you that the problem seems to be rossi/burgess/yamaha.
The ducati has been a competitive bike since '06, I agree, but they surly had a form top in'07?
With the current practice times and listening to the riders and teams I think a bet on Stoner with the current odds are a really bad bet. I don't think the odds are at all reflecting the strength relationship as it appear. It's not that I rule him out it just look like it's going to be harder than ever.


Ducati had a real chance in 2006 to go out of the 990 class in glory - if only Glibernau hadn't taken out Capirossi. After that they certainly came into 2007 having gotten the formula right(er) than anybody else for the 800's. After Yamaha AND Rossi screwed themselves in 2006 they were outclassed (speed - acceleration - pure grunt) by the Ducati/ Stoner combination in 2007. But then the Rossi/ Burgess/ Yamaha comeback started (and that is the order of priority - Yamaha is the most switchable part of that equation). Now we have year 4 of the 800's and with so much already electronically (over-) refined AND the end of this series in sight I don't see any more major developments. Engine conservation rules have pushed the Japanese to less revs and more low-mid range grunt, but nobody is doing anything major, except maybe Ducati with more carbon-fibre parts, which won't be pivotal in terms of outright performance. Bottom line for me is that I still see Ducati being competitive and maybe Hayden could make the podium as 3rd once or twice, Stoner more frequently, but then they'll have to watch out for Spies. My bet is Yamaha for Rider and Manufacturer Championship with Ducati and Honda fighting for runner-up.
 
hows that Kawi working out Chris
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ptk50 @ Apr 6 2010, 06:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'> My bet is Yamaha for Rider and Manufacturer Championship with Ducati and Honda fighting for runner-up.

Anyone, do Team Texas points count towards the Manufacturer's Title?  
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Geonerd @ Apr 6 2010, 08:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Anyone, do Team Texas points count towards the Manufacturer's Title?  

Yes.


By the way.. Lawson rules!
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (xx CURVE xx @ Apr 6 2010, 02:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Yes.


By the way.. Lawson rules!
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Doohan rules and my Dad is heavyweight champ of the world!!
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (michaelm @ Apr 6 2010, 03:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Bookmakers are not known particiularly for sentimentality though.
That's for sure, I just feel that they weigh a strong season ending slightly to much.
Besides, we've seen odds switch often enough at this time of year. One practice session can dramatically change the odds even with modest surprises in the lists, and I suspect that the last hours of the last practice session changed the raising odds on Stoner.
But hey, that's just my impression and being a Rossi booper and all what else can you expect.
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Talpa @ Apr 6 2010, 05:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Very interesting pov. Ducati don't seem to have too many problems winning in wsbk even though the Japanese do not 'officially' support the teams using their machines. However in this series ducati do have a large influence in the regs......


He may have a point in motogp, it might be the engine regs that make it difficult for ducati this year in comparison to the jap giants and their resources.

But Superbike rules for the longest of time have benefited that Ducati engine.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Apr 6 2010, 06:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>That's for sure, I just feel that they weigh a strong season ending slightly to much.
Besides, we've seen odds switch often enough at this time of year. One practice session can dramatically change the odds even with modest surprises in the lists, and I suspect that the last hours of the last practice session changed the raising odds on Stoner.
But hey, that's just my impression and being a Rossi booper and all what else can you expect.
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Sure, I agree (except about the bopper bit
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). The odds do seem to vary wildly according to recent results/events so perhaps there is not much of a market.
 
I do not think Ducati as a GP bike is inferior to any Japanese competition, -- just different and somehow more difficult -- and smaller in racing has often worked better than big (Ferrari, MV Agusta, Lotus, Williams, etc.).

By the way, look at Honda this year -- from what riders are saying it seems a Ducati 2008 replica, super-aggressive engine stressing the chassis too much (poor Melandri is living a deja vu, he returned to Honda only to find another 2008-Ducati-style nightmare haunting him).
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Now that Honda have managed to reinvent the Ducati, they really, very badly, need Stoner!
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Ducati is small ,but focussed and has a talented team of engineers.

Vermeulins judgement has to be questioned following his decision to go to Kawasaki wsbk when, I,m sure, much better offers were available.

I also think that CV thinks that, because he found it tough, so must CS find it tough to beat Rossi.
A bit like Mladins take on Spies in reverse.
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bunyip @ Apr 6 2010, 09:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Ducati is small ,but focussed and has a talented team of engineers.

Vermeulins judgement has to be questioned following his decision to go to Kawasaki wsbk when, I,m sure, much better offers were available.

I also think that CV thinks that, because he found it tough, so must CS find it tough to beat Rossi.
A bit like Mladins take on Spies in reverse.
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Also correct I think. CV's decision to go to WSBK on a Kawasaki both initially and even more so now looks to have been extremely ill-advised.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (michaelm @ Apr 6 2010, 06:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Also correct I think. CV's decision to go to a Kawasaki WSBK both initially and even more so now looks to have been extremely ill-advised.

They had signed Sykes, and were promising to change the way they operate. But like typical Kawasaki racing at a world championship level, they can't do .....
 
I don't understand where Chris is coming from. The Ducati has been a perennial front runner in the hands of Stoner and it isn't likely that Ducati have got the new engine wrong (unless it fails durability tests under racing conditions).

As far as I can tell the sport is comprised of 3 exceptional technical personnel. Furusawa, Burgess, and Preziosi. Yamaha has 2 of them, and Ducati has one, but I haven't seen any greatness from Suzuki or Honda as of late.

BTW I rate Ichiro Yoda as probably one of the 4 "alien" technicians.
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Does anyone know what's happened to him? ZX10R development?
 
I couldn't consider Ducati's effort small given the tobacco money they have displaying 'sticks' on the side of their bikes. I wouldn't be surprised if the racing budget for Ducati dwarfs both the Suzuki & the demised Kawasaki. Sure, both are larger companies but unlike Ducati, they don't really need racing to sell bikes. Ducati (much like it's 4 wheeled counterpart - Ferrari) rely more on their racing efforts to push bikes off the showroom, hence the bigger racing investment.

On the other hand, they do operate with fewer personnel compared to Yamaha & Honda. Given their performance from the moment they joined, I can't say that they are in a disadvantaged position. I mean they've manage to churn out more radical ideas when it comes to bike design especially on the major components like frame, swing arms and electronics. If they were struggling somehow (financially, being small, etc), then i'm sure they'd opt for more 'proven'/'conservative' solutions rather than going to radical designs.